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Topic:  2025 MAC Tournament

Topic:  2025 MAC Tournament
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FearLeon
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  Message Not Read  2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/2/2025 11:57:13 AM 
Might as well start up this thread to talk all things Cleveland as we head into the final week of the regular season.

#BleedGreen #TrentIsGOAT

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GraffZ06
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/2/2025 12:02:17 PM 
Copied from the Golf Standings thread -

With Akron's win and Miami's loss - Akron clinches the #1 seed in Cleveland.

Miami and Ohio have clinched tickets to Cleveland. Miami will be either the #2 or #3 seed. Ohio can still be anywhere from #2-#7.

Buffalo and NIU are the only team eliminated from Cleveland so far.

All MAC teams have 1 home and 1 away to finish the last week except for Toledo with 2 home games and EMU with 2 roadies.
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MonroeClassmate
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/2/2025 6:54:57 PM 
What is the tie breaker for 3 and 4 if it comes down to a tie between Kent and OHIO?

Easy to predict an Akron victory Tuesday in Toledo coupled with a win by the Bobcats Tuesday and then a loss to Toledo Friday. While Kent goes 2-0 finishing in a tie with OHIO.

Kent has been on a hot roll losing only 2 along with a bunch of wins and the losses very close. Of all the teams not named Akron, I'd have to believe this year that MAC teams would NOT want to face Kent in Cleveland

Last Edited: 3/2/2025 6:55:53 PM by MonroeClassmate
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shabamon
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/3/2025 10:38:38 AM 
Looks like we win one more and Kent and Toledo each lose one more, we clinch the 3.

Ideally though you'd want Kent and Toledo to go 1-1 down the stretch so that neither collapse and they stay in the 4/5 matchup.

Cheer for Western to beat Kent and Kent to beat EMU. Cheer for BG to beat Western. That keeps Western and EMU down, and prevents a chess scenario where it's actually better for us to lose at Toledo.
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shabamon
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/3/2025 10:39:33 AM 
MonroeClassmate wrote:
What is the tie breaker for 3 and 4 if it comes down to a tie between Kent and OHIO?

Easy to predict an Akron victory Tuesday in Toledo coupled with a win by the Bobcats Tuesday and then a loss to Toledo Friday. While Kent goes 2-0 finishing in a tie with OHIO.

Kent has been on a hot roll losing only 2 along with a bunch of wins and the losses very close. Of all the teams not named Akron, I'd have to believe this year that MAC teams would NOT want to face Kent in Cleveland


I think the tiebreaker would favor us due to our win over Akron.
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GraffZ06
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/3/2025 11:32:15 AM 
shabamon wrote:
MonroeClassmate wrote:
What is the tie breaker for 3 and 4 if it comes down to a tie between Kent and OHIO?

Easy to predict an Akron victory Tuesday in Toledo coupled with a win by the Bobcats Tuesday and then a loss to Toledo Friday. While Kent goes 2-0 finishing in a tie with OHIO.

Kent has been on a hot roll losing only 2 along with a bunch of wins and the losses very close. Of all the teams not named Akron, I'd have to believe this year that MAC teams would NOT want to face Kent in Cleveland


I think the tiebreaker would favor us due to our win over Akron.


Two-way tie-breaker is:
1) head-to-head
2) winning pct versus ranked conference teams from top down
3) coin flip

Three or more-way tie-breaker is:
1) winning pct amongst tied teams
2) Two-way tie-breaker procedures


So right now if we tie Kent:
1) 1-1
2) Akron we're 1-1, Kent is 0-2 - we win tie-breaker

If we tie Toledo:
1) 0-1 - we lose tie-breaker (pending final regular season game), if we win that game
2) Akron we're 1-1, Toledo is 0-1 (pending Tuesday result)

Three-way tie w/ Kent & Toledo:
1) We're 1-2 pending Toledo game, Kent is 3-1, Toledo is 1-2 pending Ohio game
so Kent would get #3 and winner of Ohio-Toledo gets 4, loser gets 5.
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Bobcat Tattoo
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/4/2025 10:03:42 PM 
Copying this from the EMU thread, with correction:

Beat Toledo = 3 seed. Depending on results elsewhere, we play Toledo, BG, WMU, or EMU.

Lose to Toledo + Kent beats EMU = 5 seed vs #4 Toledo

Lose to Toledo + EMU beats Kent - this is really interesting as there would be a 4-way tie at 10-8. We would be 1-5, so would be at the bottom = 6 seed. Kent and EMU would be at the top of the heap at 4-2, but EMU wins that one since they have a better record vs #2 Miami. So we play #3 EMU.

Last Edited: 3/5/2025 3:58:05 AM by Bobcat Tattoo
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Diamond Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/5/2025 10:59:39 AM 
It certainly seems we are playing in the 2nd or 4th game next Thursday. I can't believe Akron is playing the 11 AM Game after winning the Conference.
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100%Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/5/2025 11:40:42 AM 
If AJ Brown can't play up there and produce, I have a hard time believing we win a game in Cleveland.
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OUcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/5/2025 3:58:08 PM 
GraffZ06 wrote:
shabamon wrote:
MonroeClassmate wrote:
What is the tie breaker for 3 and 4 if it comes down to a tie between Kent and OHIO?

Easy to predict an Akron victory Tuesday in Toledo coupled with a win by the Bobcats Tuesday and then a loss to Toledo Friday. While Kent goes 2-0 finishing in a tie with OHIO.

Kent has been on a hot roll losing only 2 along with a bunch of wins and the losses very close. Of all the teams not named Akron, I'd have to believe this year that MAC teams would NOT want to face Kent in Cleveland


I think the tiebreaker would favor us due to our win over Akron.


Two-way tie-breaker is:
1) head-to-head
2) winning pct versus ranked conference teams from top down
3) coin flip

Three or more-way tie-breaker is:
1) winning pct amongst tied teams
2) Two-way tie-breaker procedures


So right now if we tie Kent:
1) 1-1
2) Akron we're 1-1, Kent is 0-2 - we win tie-breaker

If we tie Toledo:
1) 0-1 - we lose tie-breaker (pending final regular season game), if we win that game
2) Akron we're 1-1, Toledo is 0-1 (pending Tuesday result)

Three-way tie w/ Kent & Toledo:
1) We're 1-2 pending Toledo game, Kent is 3-1, Toledo is 1-2 pending Ohio game
so Kent would get #3 and winner of Ohio-Toledo gets 4, loser gets 5.





Just a personal peeve ...

I think tiebreakers should always be from the bottom up. I believe homecourt upsets vs. highly favored rival teams are far more common than not - which is not to denigrate them.

Still, losing to backend teams, home or on the road, should carry some sort of penalty. Yes, EMU is a bad matchup, but this is the MAC. Still should win those games, certainly not get swept.

While Akron-Miami wins show how good the Bobcats are. ... What does two EMU losses show?

This is not to pick on the Bobcats. The team closest to them (Kent) has lost to Ball State and Western. Reverse tiebreakers would hurt them as well.


BTW ... No 1 seed has always had that 11 am slot since the MAC took scheduling away from Gund Arena, which always had Akron and Kent play at night for attendance. Gives the No. 1 seed longer to recover.




Last Edited: 3/5/2025 4:02:11 PM by OUcat
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Bobcat Tattoo
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/7/2025 4:48:15 AM 
In case anyone else is as much of a seeding nerd as me, here's a site that allows you to play with the upcoming results to see how the tournament shakes out: https://bball.notnothing.net/mac.php?sport=mbb

In most scenarios, we end up playing Toledo. WMU and EMU are also possible. I can't find anything that would get us BG or Kent.
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GraffZ06
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/7/2025 12:20:19 PM 
Site above is broken for me - but I worked through all the possible scenarios with tie-breakers.

1) Ohio beats Toledo - we're guaranteed the #3 seed
a) Kent beats EMU and BG beats WMU - we play #6 Toledo
b) Kent beats EMU and WMU beats BG - we play #6 WMU
c) EMU beats Kent - we play #6 Toledo

2) Ohio loses to Toledo
a) Kent beats EMU - we get #5 and play #4 Toledo
b) EMU beats Kent - we get #6 and play #3 EMU


Most likely scenario is we play Toledo again, but sneaking that 3/6 WMU matchup would be completely ideal b/c our path would be WMU,Miami,Akron.


See tie-breaking scenarios below:
/////

Tie-breakers:
1) If we win, and Kent wins, we tie at 11-7 but we win tie-breaker due to beating Akron. If we win and Kent loses, we're alone in 3rd. So we get #3 regardless.

1a) We win, Kent wins. We get #3 and Kent gets #4 (see above). BG wins, that means Toledo, EMU and BG tie at 9-9.
Toledo, EMU and BG would all be 2-2 amongst each other.
Nobody beat Akron.
EMU gets #5 seed due to beating Miami.
Leaves Toledo and BG, and Toledo would get #6 due to beating #3 Ohio. BG would get #7.

1b) We win, Kent wins. We get #3, Kent gets #4 (see above). WMU wins, so Toledo, EMU and WMU tie at 9-9.
Toledo would get #5 due to going 2-1 against EMU/WMU.
WMU would get #6 due to going 1-1 against Toledo/EMU.
EMU would get #7 due to going 1-2 against Toledo/WMU.

1c) We win, Kent loses. We get #3 (see above). Kent and EMU tie at 10-8.
They would have each gone 1-1 against each other if EMU wins.
Neither of them beat Akron.
EMU would get #4 due to beating Miami, Kent would get #5.
Toledo would be tied with the BG-WMU winner at 9-9.
If it's BG, Toledo and BG split.
Neither team beat Akron.
Neither team beat Miami.
Toledo gets #6 due to beating #3 Ohio, and BG gets #7.
If it's WMU, Toledo gets #6 due to beating WMU and WMU gets #7.
Either way - Ohio gets #6 Toledo.

2a) If we lose, and Kent wins. Kent gets #3 alone. We would be tied with Toledo. Toledo would get #4 due to beating us twice and we'd get #5.

2b) If we lose and Kent loses. It creates a 4-way tie between Kent, Ohio, EMU and Toledo.
Kent and EMU would be 4-2 against common opponents.
Toledo would be 3-3 and Ohio would be 1-5.
So Toledo would be #5, Ohio would be #6.
Kent and EMU split against each other.
Neither beat Akron.
EMU would get #3 due to beating Miami. Kent would get #4.

Last Edited: 3/7/2025 12:52:53 PM by GraffZ06
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Andrew Ruck
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/7/2025 1:52:42 PM 
My favorite part of winning tonight is there is no scenario where we play EMU.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

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shabamon
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/7/2025 7:53:29 PM 
Ball State is OUT.

A moment of silence for the Ball State Cardinals...okay.
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GraffZ06
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/7/2025 9:08:32 PM 
Scenario 2a it is.

We're the 5 seed and will face #4 Toledo.

And if we don't score 100 we're screwed.
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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/7/2025 9:13:27 PM 
GraffZ06 wrote:
Scenario 2a it is.

We're the 5 seed and will face #4 Toledo.

And if we don't score 100 we're screwed.


So that means the path is Toledo then Akron, right?
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cc-cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/7/2025 9:15:17 PM 
/\/\. Yup. Tough path
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shabamon
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/7/2025 9:40:36 PM 
OMG you have you have to see the go-ahead shot NIU just hit in double OT. CMU season might end on a pass that unintentionally went in the hole.
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shabamon
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/7/2025 9:46:38 PM 
Here's how CMU's season ended. https://x.com/andrewdieckhoff/status/1898201712441348210?...
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GraffZ06
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/8/2025 1:10:46 AM 
shabamon wrote:
Here's how CMU's season ended. https://x.com/andrewdieckhoff/status/1898201712441348210?...


That and the 40 foot 3 that NIU banked in a few possessions earlier in 2OT. That's just gross.
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GraffZ06
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/8/2025 1:13:34 AM 
Match-ups in Cleveland:

(1) Akron vs. (8) Bowling Green
(4) Toledo vs. (5) Ohio
(3) Kent St vs. (6) Western Michigan
(2) Miami vs (7) Eastern Michigan
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FearLeon
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/8/2025 7:34:45 AM 
GraffZ06 wrote:
Match-ups in Cleveland:

(1) Akron vs. (8) Bowling Green
(4) Toledo vs. (5) Ohio
(3) Kent St vs. (6) Western Michigan
(2) Miami vs (7) Eastern Michigan




While we collapsed to get on the wrong side of the bracket, Miami can’t be happy with getting EMU in round one.

#BleedGreen #TrentIsGOAT

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Cbus Convo
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/8/2025 8:38:35 AM 
FearLeon wrote:
GraffZ06 wrote:
Match-ups in Cleveland:

(1) Akron vs. (8) Bowling Green
(4) Toledo vs. (5) Ohio
(3) Kent St vs. (6) Western Michigan
(2) Miami vs (7) Eastern Michigan




While we collapsed to get on the wrong side of the bracket, Miami can’t be happy with getting EMU in round one.


Eastern Michigan - the most feared #7 seed in the history of the MAC tournament
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OUcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/8/2025 8:44:03 AM 
FearLeon wrote:
GraffZ06 wrote:
Match-ups in Cleveland:

(1) Akron vs. (8) Bowling Green
(4) Toledo vs. (5) Ohio
(3) Kent St vs. (6) Western Michigan
(2) Miami vs (7) Eastern Michigan




While we collapsed to get on the wrong side of the bracket, Miami can’t be happy with getting EMU in round one.


From the Akron side, the road to the title game can't be much easier. Central Michigan at least would have been a bad opening matchup for the Zips.

After Akron BG ... all other games look to be relative toss-ups.
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OUcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: 2025 MAC Tournament
   Posted: 3/8/2025 3:08:46 PM 

Believe it if you want ....

But according to ESPN's gamecast winning predictions for the opening round games of the MAC Tournament:

Ohio - 63-percent
Miami - 77-percent
Akron - 83-percent
Kent - 85-percent

IMO -- ESPN does not know and/or does not follow MAC Basketball.

From the bottom up, Kent split with WMU and needed a missed 15-footer at the bzzer by WMU, a monster rebound game from Gillespie and a ton of missed WMU FTs to get that done.

Akron vs. BG, I'll buy that. But more like 75 percent in my book.

Miami split with Eastern, and Eastern is not only one of the hopptest teams, but have won their share on the road.

Ohio -- I think we all can ask questions about this one, considering the UT sweep and the margins of victories.

Frankly, would not be surprised if at least two teams pulled tournament upsets -- and Ohio over Toledo would be an upset in my book.
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