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Topic: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Topic: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

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Victory
General User

Member Since: 3/10/2012
Post Count: 1,938

Status: Offline

Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 5/31/2024 9:45:08 PM

Thoughts?

An analysis of all 134 win totals makes it possible to back out a power rating that is best consistent with the predicted opponents. I didn't do that. I saw the analysis from Joshua Davis. But I took his power rating to get the winning chance in each game.

Syracuse 13%
South Alabama 49%
Morgan St 99%
Kentucky 4%
Akron 84%
C Michigan 51%
Miami OH 23%
Buffalo 74%
Kent 81%
E Michigan 77%
Toledo 27%
Ball St 71%

Those percentages sum to 6.5 wins which, of course, they have to because the win total was used to get the power rating instead of the other way around.

This also puts us at about #97 in the FBS.
That's nowhere near out USAT rating which I think is ridiculously optimistic. But it is better than OUr SP+ of 112. Massey has #95.

Last Edited: 5/31/2024 9:47:25 PM by Victory

L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,104

Status: Offline

RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 6/1/2024 7:07:56 AM

The Vegas-implied odds look as reasonable as any guess could be. With all the turnover, it seems to me that Ohio could end up with anything from about 3 wins to about 9, and I'm hoping for 6 or better. The coaches, obviously, want to win at least 8. We'll see if they can do it.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

ctb
General User

Member Since: 8/29/2014
Location: Ohio
Post Count: 95

Status: Offline

RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 6/2/2024 1:46:13 PM

I'm guessing either 7-5 or 8-4.

Victory
General User

Member Since: 3/10/2012
Post Count: 1,938

Status: Offline

RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 6/8/2024 7:37:09 PM

MAC futures

Miami-Ohio Redhawks +230
Toledo Rockets +290
Northern Illinois Huskies +600
Bowling Green Falcons +800
Ohio Bobcats +950
Western Michigan Broncos +1000
Central Michigan Chippewas +1700
Eastern Michigan Eagles +2200
Buffalo Bulls +2800
Ball State Cardinals +3000
Akron Zips +10000
Kent State Golden Flashes +10000

spongeBOB CATpants
General User

Member Since: 8/16/2016
Post Count: 959

Status: Offline

RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 6/10/2024 4:06:36 PM

Victory wrote:

I'm still kicking myself for not taking Miami +700 last year. +950 for the Cats is an easy smash for me, responsibly of course.

Chris Galloway
General User

Member Since: 12/20/2004
Post Count: 55

Status: Offline

RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 6/12/2024 11:29:42 AM

Feels like a 7-5 and return to the Bahamas Bowl type of year. Finish 8-5 after bowl game. Which based on the amount guys we lost is pretty good coaching having to integrate all the new faces.

Go Bobcats!

Pataskala
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RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 6/12/2024 5:10:34 PM

ctb wrote:

I'm guessing either 7-5 or 8-4.

I'm thinking 8-4 at best, maybe as low as 6-6. What should be our four toughest games are on the road: Syracuse, UK, MOFO and Toledo. I wouldn't be surprised if we lost them all. We're also at CMU, which always seems to have our number (last year was our first win vs them in long time). Kent always plays us tough at home, too, but we should still win. So we could go 1-5 on the road. The home schedule is a git softer, but just about every year we lose a home game that we should win. It's probably going to be a grind all year.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

FormerMember
General User

Member Since: 1/7/2022
Post Count: 154

Status: Offline

RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 6/17/2024 10:04:14 AM

Vegas is always playing tricks with their W/L totals. I entered the offseason thinking 7-8 wins but after all of the player movement, I'm thinking 6-7 wins.

6.5 is a smart preseason line. I'd probably take the under at the moment but still want the expectation to be making a bowl game.

Victory
General User

Member Since: 3/10/2012
Post Count: 1,938

Status: Offline

RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 6/17/2024 11:22:09 AM

FormerMember wrote:

This might be a 1-5 on the road and 5-1 at home type of season.

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