My changes are small: I moved Toledo and NIU down a tier, and Buffalo up a tier, plus I spread out the bottom three a little.
In my opinion, when two teams in the same tier play, the home team will be a slight favorite. A team playing a team in the tier above them will be an underdog, but could win, especially if the game is at home. A team playing a team two tiers ahead is unlikely to win, but it isn't impossible.
My changes are small: I moved Toledo and NIU down a tier, and Buffalo up a tier, plus I spread out the bottom three a little.
In my opinion, when two teams in the same tier play, the home team will be a slight favorite. A team playing a team in the tier above them will be an underdog, but could win, especially if the game is at home. A team playing a team two tiers ahead is unlikely to win, but it isn't impossible.
Very interesting. Back in the day I never really considered a lot of MAC away games as true home field advantage like a P4 team. Except one place: Central Michigan. Not sure if it's how the stadium is built but the noise felt different there.
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RE: Conference ranks
Posted: 9/24/2024 11:10:50 AM
Ohio certainly puts a lot of pride into "defending the Frank". At place where the attendance is in the 5-10,000 range, that is no doubt less true. As a fan, it seems to me that the Glass Bowl has been another particularly difficult place for Ohio to win. On the other hand, Buffalo going into DeKalb and winning shows that in the MAC, you should always expect the unexpected; upsets are going to happen.
My changes are small: I moved Toledo and NIU down a tier, and Buffalo up a tier, plus I spread out the bottom three a little.
In my opinion, when two teams in the same tier play, the home team will be a slight favorite. A team playing a team in the tier above them will be an underdog, but could win, especially if the game is at home. A team playing a team two tiers ahead is unlikely to win, but it isn't impossible.
Very interesting. Back in the day I never really considered a lot of MAC away games as true home field advantage like a P4 team. Except one place: Central Michigan. Not sure if it's how the stadium is built but the noise felt different there.
Hard to justify Miami being Tier 1. They're 0-3 (I know) and have had a hell of a time scoring.
My changes are small: I moved Toledo and NIU down a tier, and Buffalo up a tier, plus I spread out the bottom three a little.
In my opinion, when two teams in the same tier play, the home team will be a slight favorite. A team playing a team in the tier above them will be an underdog, but could win, especially if the game is at home. A team playing a team two tiers ahead is unlikely to win, but it isn't impossible.
Very interesting. Back in the day I never really considered a lot of MAC away games as true home field advantage like a P4 team. Except one place: Central Michigan. Not sure if it's how the stadium is built but the noise felt different there.
Hard to justify Miami being Tier 1. They're 0-3 (I know) and have had a hell of a time scoring.
Letβs see how they do moving forward in the MAC. Their star QB is not doing well so far
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RE: Conference ranks
Posted: 9/24/2024 8:12:09 PM
SBH wrote:
Hard to justify Miami being Tier 1. They're 0-3 (I know) and have had a hell of a time scoring.
No one is in Tier 1. NIU and Toledo were in Tier 1, but then they lost. I only have Miami one Tier above Ohio, and hope that I have the opportunity to reverse that before the season is over.
βWe have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.β β Epictetus
Their method takes into account randomness, who each team plays, and who will have the home field in each game. Here are their early projections for final conference wins and chances of being bowl eligible: Toledo 6-2, 99% BG 5.9-2.1, 86% Ohio 5.1-2.9, 89% NIU 4.8-3.2, 94% Miami 4.8-3.2, 58% EMU 4.7-3.3, 93% WMU 4.7-3.3, 56% Buffalo 4.5-3.5, 78% CMU 3.1-4.9, 36.3% Akron 1.8-6.2, 1.6% Ball St 1.5-6.5, 1.4% Kent 1.2-6.8, 0.0%
My first takeaway is that the MAC is balanced enough that 6 conference wins may be enough to get into the playoffs.
My second takeaway is that Ohio is not favored to be in the conference playoff, but they not out of the mix. If they play well, continue to improve, stay healthy, and get some good bounces at important times, it could happen. That's pretty remarkable for a team with as much turnover as they had. On the other hand, they could fall quite a ways down the list if things don't go well.
My third takeaway from this is that some teams, such as NIU, are projected worse than you might expect due to a more difficult schedule, but Ohio's isn't too bad. They dodge both BG and NIU, and if you look at the competitive games that likely will determine whether Ohio is in the playoff game (EMU, CMU, Buffalo, and Miami), it is equally split between home and away. Ohio will likely need to win 3 of these 4 to make the playoff game.
My final takeaway is this: Now is the time! Three of those big four games are up next. Ohio needs to win at least 2 of them. If they don't, they will have to win their final four, including beating Toledo on the road.
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RE: Conference ranks
Posted: 10/5/2024 7:17:00 PM
L.C. wrote:
L.C. wrote:
Tier 1: none Tier 2: Toledo, BG, NIU, Miami Tier 3: Buffalo, EMU, Ohio, WMU Tier 4: CMU, Ball State Tier 5: Akron Tier 6: (U Mass*) Tier 7: Kent
I'll make more small changes, at least until we get into the meat of the conference schedule. I'll move Miami down, move UMass up a notch, and Ball State down one: Tier 1: none Tier 2: Toledo, BG, NIU Tier 3: Buffalo, Miami, Ohio, WMU, EMU Tier 4: CMU Tier 5: Akron, Ball State, (U Mass*) Tier 6: none Tier 7: Kent
* Not officially in the MAC yet
More minor adjustments. BG and WMU down. Tier 1: none Tier 2: Toledo, NIU Tier 3: BG, Buffalo, Miami, Ohio, EMU Tier 4: CMU, WMU Tier 5: Akron, Ball State, (U Mass*) Tier 6: none Tier 7: Kent
Next week we get four games that will help to break up the big cluster at Tier 3: Miami at EMU (Tier 3 at Tier 3) Ohio at CMU (Tier 3 at Tier 4) Toledo at Buffalo (Tier 2 at Tier 3) NIU at BG (Tier 2 at Tier 3) In all cases, the team I have in the higher Tier is on the road, so to me, all these games could go either way.
βWe have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.β β Epictetus
Their method takes into account randomness, who each team plays, and who will have the home field in each game. Here are their early projections for final conference wins and chances of being bowl eligible: Toledo 6-2, 99% BG 5.9-2.1, 86% Ohio 5.1-2.9, 89% NIU 4.8-3.2, 94% Miami 4.8-3.2, 58% EMU 4.7-3.3, 93% WMU 4.7-3.3, 56% Buffalo 4.5-3.5, 78% CMU 3.1-4.9, 36.3% Akron 1.8-6.2, 1.6% Ball St 1.5-6.5, 1.4% Kent 1.2-6.8, 0.0%
My first takeaway is that the MAC is balanced enough that 6 conference wins may be enough to get into the playoffs.
My second takeaway is that Ohio is not favored to be in the conference playoff, but they not out of the mix. If they play well, continue to improve, stay healthy, and get some good bounces at important times, it could happen. That's pretty remarkable for a team with as much turnover as they had. On the other hand, they could fall quite a ways down the list if things don't go well.
My third takeaway from this is that some teams, such as NIU, are projected worse than you might expect due to a more difficult schedule, but Ohio's isn't too bad. They dodge both BG and NIU, and if you look at the competitive games that likely will determine whether Ohio is in the playoff game (EMU, CMU, Buffalo, and Miami), it is equally split between home and away. Ohio will likely need to win 3 of these 4 to make the playoff game.
My final takeaway is this: Now is the time! Three of those big four games are up next. Ohio needs to win at least 2 of them. If they don't, they will have to win their final four, including beating Toledo on the road.
I think if we can get healthier then the though of making the MAC Championship isn't that far out there. My hope was we could see improvement as the year went on. We look better at this point than I thought we would even with the injuries.
No upsets, so not much change this week from TeamRankings, which is still predicting a Toledo-BG championship game, with Toledo-Ohio as the next most likely game: Toledo 6.3-1.7, 99.6% +.3 BG 5.9-2.1, 87.3% Ohio 5.1-2.9, 89% WMU 4.9-3.1, 61.6% +.2 EMU 4.8-3.2, 94% +.1
NIU 4.6-3.4, 93.7% -.2 Miami 4.6-3.4, 53.4% -.2 Buffalo 4.4-3.6, 73.6% -.1 CMU 3.2-4.8, 38.1% +.1 Akron 1.8-6.2, 1% Ball St 1.4-6.6, 0.6% -.1 Kent 1.1-6.9, 0.0% -.1
βWe have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.β β Epictetus
No upsets, so not much change this week from TeamRankings, which is still predicting a Toledo-BG championship game, with Toledo-Ohio as the next most likely game: Toledo 6.3-1.7, 99.6% +.3 BG 5.9-2.1, 87.3% Ohio 5.1-2.9, 89% WMU 4.9-3.1, 61.6% +.2 EMU 4.8-3.2, 94% +.1
No upsets, so not much change this week from TeamRankings, which is still predicting a Toledo-BG championship game, with Toledo-Ohio as the next most likely game: Toledo 6.3-1.7, 99.6% +.3 BG 5.9-2.1, 87.3% Ohio 5.1-2.9, 89% WMU 4.9-3.1, 61.6% +.2 EMU 4.8-3.2, 94% +.1
All eyes on BG/NIU and Toledo/Buffs. Things could get really muddy with Buffalo and BG winning.
In mind BG over NIU is a possibility; Buffs beating Toledo is as likely as Vanderbilt beating Alabama! ;-)
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No upsets, so not much change this week from TeamRankings, which is still predicting a Toledo-BG championship game, with Toledo-Ohio as the next most likely game: Toledo 6.3-1.7, 99.6% +.3 BG 5.9-2.1, 87.3% Ohio 5.1-2.9, 89% WMU 4.9-3.1, 61.6% +.2 EMU 4.8-3.2, 94% +.1
All eyes on BG/NIU and Toledo/Buffs. Things could get really muddy with Buffalo and BG winning.
In mind BG over NIU is a possibility; Buffs beating Toledo is as likely as Vanderbilt beating Alabama! ;-)
Down goes Bama....I mean Toledo. π€ Couldn't stop the run today at all. Henderson almost had 150 rushing today. Meanwhile, Toledo has a very capable back up QB in John Richter. Very efficient in Rockets comeback attempt.
All eyes on BG/NIU and OU/CMU.
Slight breakdown of these games:
NIU - 2nd offense , 1st defense in MAC BG - 3rd offense, 8th defense in MAC
OU - 5th offense, 2nd defense in MAC CMU - 1st offense, 4th defense in MAC
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RE: Conference ranks
Posted: 10/13/2024 12:07:50 AM
Buffalo jumps 2 spots, BG, WMU, EMU and Ball State each down one
Tier 1: Buffalo Tier 2: Toledo, NIU Tier 3: BG, Miami, Ohio Tier 4: CMU, WMU, EMU Tier 5: Akron, (U Mass*) Tier 6: Ball St Tier 7: Kent
If Ohio can find a way to win at Miami, we could see 3-0 Ohio against 3-0 Buffalo in a couple weeks. That's definitely not the battle for the top of the MAC than anyone expected....
Edit - latest from TeamRankings While I wasn't willing to move Ohio up to Tier 2 (because of the 2d half), apparently TeamRankings is. Here is their current projections for the MAC Columns are Conference wins, bowl eligible %, MACC % chance:
Judging from their picks, they have Buffalo a bit above everyone else, then it is pretty even from Ohio all the way to WMU, with any of the top 7 still capable of winning the MACC. Now that's a balanced conference! No other conference has more than 4 teams with a 7% or better chance of a conference championship, and the MAC has 7. https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/projections/standings /
Now it's time for Ohio to prove they belong in Tier 2 or higher. Ohio just needs to keep improving a little bit each game, and they can do this.
Buffalo jumps 2 spots, BG, WMU, EMU and Ball State each down one
Tier 1: Buffalo Tier 2: Toledo, NIU Tier 3: BG, Miami, Ohio Tier 4: CMU, WMU, EMU Tier 5: Akron, (U Mass*) Tier 6: Ball St Tier 7: Kent
If Ohio can find a way to win at Miami, we could see 3-0 Ohio against 3-0 Buffalo in a couple weeks. That's definitely not the battle for the top of the MAC than anyone expected....
Edit - latest from TeamRankings While I wasn't willing to move Ohio up to Tier 2 (because of the 2d half), apparently TeamRankings is. Here is their current projections for the MAC Columns are Conference wins, bowl eligible %, MACC % chance:
Judging from their picks, they have Buffalo a bit above everyone else, then it is pretty even from Ohio all the way to WMU, with any of the top 7 still capable of winning the MACC. Now that's a balanced conference! No other conference has more than 4 teams with a 7% or better chance of a conference championship, and the MAC has 7. https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/projections/standings /
Now it's time for Ohio to prove they belong in Tier 2 or higher. Ohio just needs to keep improving a little bit each game, and they can do this.
I basically agree with this. I am not sure that the oddsmakers as of yet actually would consider Buffalo a better tram than Toledo and NIU but they have already beaten both of them, and I'm pretty sure those are the three best teams, so they should be #1. In the same way Ohio has 4 total wins and is 2-0 in conference so we deserve credit for actual wins but we would definitely be an underdog to Miami and BG on a neutral field. I'm not sure that WMU shouldn't be here too with too conference wins but their wins don't look that great.
My biggest nitpick is CMU should be worse than WMU and EMU but, OK, still better than the others so unless you wanted to make a tier just for them I guess I can't argue.
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RE: Conference ranks
Posted: 10/13/2024 5:53:26 PM
Victory wrote:
...My biggest nitpick is CMU should be worse than WMU and EMU but, OK, still better than the others so unless you wanted to make a tier just for them I guess I can't argue.
Until they play, it's hard to know. WMU only has wins against terrible teams, and all are closer than they should be. By contrast EMU has a "quality" win against Jacksonville State, and CMU has a "quality" win against SDSU.
βWe have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.β β Epictetus
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RE: Conference ranks
Posted: 10/20/2024 6:56:48 PM
I really don't know what to do with these, now. I'll drop Buffalo 2 ranks, and raise WMU, U.Mass, Ball State, and Kent 1 each. It's starting to look like a normal distribution:
Tier 1: Tier 2: Toledo, NIU Tier 3: BG, Miami, Ohio, Buffalo, WMU Tier 4: CMU, EMU, (U. Mass) Tier 5: Akron, Ball St Tier 6: Kent Tier 7:
βWe have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.β β Epictetus
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RE: Conference ranks
Posted: 10/20/2024 9:19:36 PM
L.C. wrote:
I really don't know what to do with these, now. I'll drop Buffalo 2 ranks, and raise WMU, U.Mass, Ball State, and Kent 1 each. It's starting to look like a normal distribution:
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RE: Conference ranks
Posted: 10/21/2024 7:27:26 AM
colobobcat66 wrote:
L.C. wrote:
I really don't know what to do with these, now. I'll drop Buffalo 2 ranks, and raise WMU, U.Mass, Ball State, and Kent 1 each. It's starting to look like a normal distribution:
It seems like Buffalo with wins over your 2 top Tier teams would be in that tier.
And that unpredictability and disorder is what makes the MAC the MAC. I expected Buffalo to easily beat WMU, but no. I guess I could have left Buffalo even with Toledo and NIU, and moved WMU all the way to the top, but I am skeptical. After all, WMU was trailing Ball State after 3 quarters, and was being blown out by Akron until a freak hailstorm covered the field in ball bearings, and led to repeated Akron turnovers.
If WMU crushes Kent this week and beats NIU next week, I'll be a believer, and move them to Tier 1. If Buffalo blows out Ohio this week, I will move them back up to Tier 1 or 2. In the meantime, I don't know what to believe, so I have clustered almost everyone between Tier 2 and Tier 4.
βWe have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.β β Epictetus
