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Topic: MAC is crazy (and very balanced)

Topic: MAC is crazy (and very balanced)

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L.C.
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Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
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MAC is crazy (and very balanced)

Posted: 11/26/2022 6:14:01 PM

In more crazy results this week, after Toledo lost to WMU, Akron crushed NIU, and Buffalo lost to Kent. Now Ohio is the only team with less than 3 conference losses. Five conference teams are bowl eligible. Buffalo can be #6, but they have to beat Akron to do it, and that, apparently, is not a gimmee.

Congrats to to Bobcats to keeping their focus all season. One more MAC game to go. Do it!

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

Pataskala
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RE: MAC is crazy (and very balanced)

Posted: 11/26/2022 10:09:23 PM

Buffalo just completed a November to Dismember and could have one of the biggest tankings in MAC history. They were 4-0 in the MAC and 5-3 overall -- on a five-game win streak -- and in first place in the East after taking out West leader Toledo when they played us on Nov 1. Since them, they're oh-for-November, losers of three straight. If they don't beat Akron next week, they'll be watching the bowl ganes on TV just like the rest of us. This, after needing just one win in their last four games to be bowl eligible. You gotta think the pressure's really on them to get a win next week.

Last Edited: 11/26/2022 10:11:43 PM by Pataskala

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

colobobcat66
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RE: MAC is crazy (and very balanced)

Posted: 11/27/2022 9:42:00 AM

Let’s face it, the MAC is down this year (thanks Mr. Obvious), partly I think because of injuries, many to QB’s. NIU, Miami and Toledo come to mind and there’s probably others I’ve missed. The transfer portal didn’t help- see VanTease at Buffalo among many others . And the NIL will continue to draw good players elsewhere. Expect more of the same going forward.

L.C.
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RE: MAC is crazy (and very balanced)

Posted: 11/27/2022 2:05:37 PM

colobobcat66 wrote:

On average, I think the MAC is stronger this year than usual. While the MAC lacks any really good teams, it also lacks any horrible teams, which brings up the average. It also means that pretty much every MAC game all year long was a coin flip, which is why every team other than Ohio has at least 3 conference losses.

Here's the Sagarin ratings of Conferences.
https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2022-2/college-football-fcs-... /

The West is down a bit from normal, but the East is up considerably, and in fact, unusually, the East is stronger than the West. In many years, the MAC-East has been the lowest rated FBS conference, and behind the MVS, but neither are true this year.

The final numbers, after bowls, may show a different story. Yes, the MAC has a lot of QB injuries. If, as a result of those injuries, the MAC under-performs in bowls, that will drop the entire MAC.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

colobobcat66
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RE: MAC is crazy (and very balanced)

Posted: 11/27/2022 3:07:55 PM

L.C. wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

LC, I usually agree with everything you say, but not this time. By Sagarin, the MAC East is the second or third worst FBS division, Akron is indeed terrible and the West is about as bad as the East which is usually not true. The reason that the MAC East is not at the bottom is because several of the best C-USA teams left for the Sun Belt and they got some new bottom feeders . They’re indeed a fair amount of parity but it’s not because everybody is better. If you have a bunch of 2nd and 3rd string quarterbacks starting why wouldn’t there be a lot of parity? Only 6 at most bowl eligible teams shows there’s a lot of bad teams.

Last Edited: 11/27/2022 4:06:40 PM by colobobcat66

L.C.
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RE: MAC is crazy (and very balanced)

Posted: 11/27/2022 5:06:25 PM

Here are the averages for the West for the last six years (ex covid year):
2016 64.34
2017 59.32
2018 60.32
2019 59.56
2021 66.55
2022 60.67

The West is clearly down from last year, but it's better than 2017-2019. On the whole, it's a pretty average year for them.

Here is the last six years for the East:
2016 53.95
2017 56.11
2018 59.47
2019 56.27
2021 56.27
2022 60.77

This is the strongest MAC East in many years, and the first time in a very long time that the East has been stronger than the West.

Here are the lowest rated teams in the MAC for these six years:
2016 Buffalo 44.84, 37.38 below the highest team, WMU at 82.22
2017 Ball State 34.49, 36.63 below the highest team, Toledo at 71.12
2018 Kent 49.30, 23.47 below the highest team, Ohio, at 72.77
2019 Akron 33.56, 33.94 below the highest team, Buffalo at 67.50
2021 Akron 44.80, 26.04 below the highest team, CMU at 70.84
2022 Akron 51.57, 18.02 below the highest team, Ohio at 69.59

Akron is far better that the truly horrible 2017 Ball State team, or the 2019 Akron team, and somewhat better than the other lowest ranked teams. Ohio and Miami are the only MAC teams that beat them by more than 1 TD. While they lost six games, there were competitive in most of them. I expect them to be competitive this week against Buffalo, and they might beat Buffalo. I do not consider them horrible, so I guess we'll have to disagree.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

colobobcat66
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RE: MAC is crazy (and very balanced)

Posted: 11/27/2022 6:21:58 PM

L.C. wrote:

I figured you’d pull out the facts and prove me wrong. Thanks for the data as always. I guess horrible is in the eye of the beholder - I’m going more by record and rating - number 156 or so, rather than how close the games are.
The season has been crazy, there’s been so many games that don’t make much sense to me.

Last Edited: 11/27/2022 6:22:43 PM by colobobcat66

L.C.
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Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
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RE: MAC is crazy (and very balanced)

Posted: 11/27/2022 7:08:00 PM

colobobcat66 wrote:

...
The season has been crazy, there’s been so many games that don’t make much sense to me.

On that I totally agree. There is much about this year that I don't understand. In addition to games already played, I also don't understand why Toledo is favored, but they are. FWIW, the Toledo board is also confused at to why they are the favorite. Another mystery to me: Toledo won the West, and are favored to win the MACC. They have no threads congratulating and encouraging their team, but rather at least 7 separate threads demanding that their coach be fired immediately, and suggest boycotting the MACC game.

Last Edited: 11/27/2022 7:10:21 PM by L.C.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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