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Topic: Official Game 20 Thread: Toledo
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Ted Thompson
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Posted: 1/25/2025 10:46 AM

Use this thread to talk about anything game-related. For away games, we may have a separate travel thread.

Date: Tuesday January 28th, 2025 7:00 PM

Opponent: Toledo  (11-8, 5-2 MAC)

Site: Convocation Center

TV/Streaming: ESPN2

Radio: Ohio Radio, The Varsity Network App (free)

Toledo statistics, roster and media guide

Toledo message board:  The LaunchPad

Follow Ohio Football recruiting on the BobcatAttack.com football recruiting database.

greencat
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Posted: 1/25/2025 5:13 PM
Akron hung 102 points on previously unbeaten Fiami.

It's pretty obvious who the new MAC fave to make the dance is now.
M.D.W.S.T
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Posted: 1/26/2025 2:51 PM
Another measuring stick game in our two week string of measuring stick games.

- Akron lost by 8.
- Kent State won by 2.
- Toledo... I think we 'steal' this one at home. I only say steal, because with no AJC or Hadaway, every game is gonna be down to the wire. Hope for a good crowd. Lack of Hadaway and AJC is gonna be PAIN, but I'm encouraged by our tough D. They lost by 20 to Kent State last week. They're a balanced team that rebounds well.
- Miami... Just got mollywhopped by Akron after winning 8-straight. One week I think they're pretty good, the next they give up 100 to Akron.
Bobcat1996
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Posted: 1/26/2025 8:04 PM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
Another measuring stick game in our two week string of measuring stick games.

- Akron lost by 8.
- Kent State won by 2.
- Toledo... I think we 'steal' this one at home. I only say steal, because with no AJC or Hadaway, every game is gonna be down to the wire. Hope for a good crowd. Lack of Hadaway and AJC is gonna be PAIN, but I'm encouraged by our tough D. They lost by 20 to Kent State last week. They're a balanced team that rebounds well.
- Miami... Just got mollywhopped by Akron after winning 8-straight. One week I think they're pretty good, the next they give up 100 to Akron.
The Bobcats won't "steal" this game. Ohio is better than Toledo at HOME. In Savage that is a different story.
Deciduous Forest Cat
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Posted: 1/27/2025 9:30 AM
Bobcat1996 wrote:expand_more
Another measuring stick game in our two week string of measuring stick games.

- Akron lost by 8.
- Kent State won by 2.
- Toledo... I think we 'steal' this one at home. I only say steal, because with no AJC or Hadaway, every game is gonna be down to the wire. Hope for a good crowd. Lack of Hadaway and AJC is gonna be PAIN, but I'm encouraged by our tough D. They lost by 20 to Kent State last week. They're a balanced team that rebounds well.
- Miami... Just got mollywhopped by Akron after winning 8-straight. One week I think they're pretty good, the next they give up 100 to Akron.
The Bobcats won't "steal" this game. Ohio is better than Toledo at HOME. In Savage that is a different story.
At full strength, maybe. Not currently
M.D.W.S.T
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Posted: 1/27/2025 10:20 AM
OU is 1-9 in the last 10 vs Toledo?

Oooof.
GraffZ06
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Posted: 1/27/2025 10:32 AM
We were, how shall I put it, not great against Kent.

We squeaked that one out due to a combination of tenacity/persistence on D combined with Kent being a terrible offensive (but great defensive) team, coupled with the FT line.

Toledo is the polar opposite of Kent. They're a really good offensive team.

Unless we play outside our bodies on D, or Boals comes up with a magical game plan, I struggle to see how we score enough points to stay with Toledo.

We can beat Kent or Miami scoring 60. I think it takes >70 to beat Toledo. I just don't see it.
Bobcat Jerry
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Posted: 1/27/2025 11:27 AM
National TV exposure. Gotta win no matter whatever it takes.
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 1/27/2025 12:24 PM
Another exciting national broadcast at home, another whiney pessimistic fan base expecting us to fail.
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GraffZ06
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Posted: 1/27/2025 12:33 PM
Torvik says we win 86-79.
Haslam says we win 84.4-79.2.

Again, neither takes injuries into account.

Those sound right with a full roster. According to PRPG replacing Clayton and Hadaway with Searls and Elliott costs us on average 4.6 points.

Makes a 5.2 to 7 point margin closer to 0.6 to 2.4. Still has us on the plus side though. My eyeballs have a hard time believing that.
MonroeClassmate
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Posted: 1/27/2025 1:19 PM
Another battle in the battle for who will end 2nd in the MAC. (unless Akron reverts to some previously unseen low)

That is a worthy goal considering the minutes lost by key people. It is also a goal to keep a focus for the team to continue to grow together and strive for being as good as those suited up in the green and white can be.

Look at Kent last season going into the tournament then upsetting Toledo and being one stupid idiotic play from going to the Dance.

One game at a time; keep striving; keep improving and beat these teams also going for the 2nd place prize. No throwing in the towel and playing youngsters to give them experience and to see what you have (see that in practice). Play the best and just win baby! As Nolan Richardson and his Razorbacks would attest: 40 minutes of hell. Run and play smart and inspired defense.
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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Posted: 1/27/2025 3:05 PM
MonroeClassmate wrote:expand_more
Another battle in the battle for who will end 2nd in the MAC. (unless Akron reverts to some previously unseen low)

That is a worthy goal considering the minutes lost by key people. It is also a goal to keep a focus for the team to continue to grow together and strive for being as good as those suited up in the green and white can be.

Look at Kent last season going into the tournament then upsetting Toledo and being one stupid idiotic play from going to the Dance.

One game at a time; keep striving; keep improving and beat these teams also going for the 2nd place prize. No throwing in the towel and playing youngsters to give them experience and to see what you have (see that in practice). Play the best and just win baby! As Nolan Richardson and his Razorbacks would attest: 40 minutes of hell. Run and play smart and inspired defense.
Hmmm. Agree that 2nd place is a worthy goal -- it would mean we're absurdly over-performing given the current injuries and uncertainty -- but also feels like thinking that's where this season's at is wildly optimistic.

By the end of this week, there's a high probability chance we've got 4 conference losses. WMU is bad -- but without Clayton/Hadaway -- we are too, and it's pretty hard to see a ton of guaranteed wins on the calendar.

Clayton's being reassessed in 10 days -- if that reassessment requires missing time beyond App State, we go to BG and Kent the next week. Both of those are tough games at full strength, let alone without Hadaway and Clayton, or without Hadaway and with a hobbled Clayton.

Not at all out of the realm of possibility that we're .500 in the MAC in 3 weeks.
Old Zone
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Posted: 1/27/2025 3:06 PM
The weather has finally improved so we can drive down from Cleveland for a game. Anyone have two tickets they'd like to sell? If so, please PM me.
Pataskala
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Posted: 1/27/2025 3:31 PM
It's interesting that rebounding is an issue for both teams in MAC games. Toledo is a minus 0.6 per game while Ohio is minus 1.3.

Ohio has a small edge in turnover margin (plus 1 per game to plus 0.86) but a big edge in steals (8 per game to 4.71) and blocked shots (4.14 to 2.86).
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

UofToledoFans
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Posted: 1/28/2025 7:47 AM
Big game tonight. Basketball news and notes talk about on this week's show to get you caught up on the matchups.

Audio: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2yO1lwqxk6WsNh9G9SZRO7?s...

Video: https://youtu.be/_YxZI8omlaI?si=EdK9IqQDgyQC-si7
----MIDNIGHT BLUE AND GOLD LAUNCHPAD PODCAST----
M.D.W.S.T
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Posted: 1/28/2025 9:15 AM
OU is a -2.5 favorite.

That... is a bit of a surprise.
spongeBOB CATpants
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Posted: 1/28/2025 10:29 AM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
OU is a -2.5 favorite.

That... is a bit of a surprise.
I've tried to comprehend this and I can't wrap my mind around it. Toledo has completely owned this series, as you pointed out earlier. We're down arguably our 2 best scoring options (at times), two rim protectors, rebounders, etc.

I get we're typically great at hOUme but this line makes no sense at all. This one will have to be another ugly game for us to win, that might be putting it lightly.
Clown Ohio Fan
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Posted: 1/28/2025 10:29 AM
The fact is that the metrics and Vegas still like Ohio with their injuries more than most people on this board...

The rest of the MAC is awful... How many times do we have to say it before it finally hits home?
Clown Ohio Fan
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Posted: 1/28/2025 10:32 AM
Toledo is 202nd in KenPom. Can we PLEASE stop acting like this is a typical Rockets squad? Kent State is 142nd and Ohio just won at home. The Rockets are closer to CMU in the metrics than they are to Miami.

Can Ohio lose? Certainly. Our team is 172nd in KenPom which is 4th in the MAC and slightly behind Miami. Losing our bigs hurts but the positive is we have a ton of guards and can play small ball. Their ceiling is lowered but there's no reason to think they can't compete on a nightly basis with almost anyone else in the league other than Akron.
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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Posted: 1/28/2025 10:33 AM
FormerMember wrote:expand_more
The fact is that the metrics and Vegas still like Ohio with their injuries more than most people on this board...

The rest of the MAC is awful... How many times do we have to say it before it finally hits home?
I think what people are reacting to is that we are also awful now.

Yes, the league is bad. But we weren't head and shoulders above the pack at full health, and now we're down our best offensive player and our best interior defender.

We beat Kent, but we will lose 9 of 19 games with that rebounding margin. I don't think it's some wild things to question what Vegas sees about this team.
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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Posted: 1/28/2025 10:37 AM
FormerMember wrote:expand_more
Can Ohio lose? Certainly. Our team is 172nd in KenPom which is 4th in the MAC and slightly behind Miami. Losing our bigs hurts but the positive is we have a ton of guards and can play small ball. Their ceiling is lowered but there's no reason to think they can't compete on a nightly basis with almost anyone else in the league other than Akron.
Were we competing on a nightly basis before the injuries? Both the Akron and EMU games were pretty easy wins for our opponents, and late runs made the scores closer than the reality. EMUs win probability didn't fall below 85% for the final 30 minutes of play.

EMU is 9-9, and 4-3 in the MAC. We were likely to struggle in conference play as is.
Last Edited: 1/28/2025 10:38:31 AM by Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
greencat
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Posted: 1/28/2025 10:40 AM
If it was Kansas or Duke or Kentucky minus their two best starting power forwards, the odds makers would be all over that and adjust the line accordingly.

They aren't going to spend the time and effort to research what is really going on if the game is Toledo or UTEP or Florida International. They can just toss a line out there and if too many people are betting one side, they change the line.
spongeBOB CATpants
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Posted: 1/28/2025 10:52 AM
greencat wrote:expand_more
If it was Kansas or Duke or Kentucky minus their two best starting power forwards, the odds makers would be all over that and adjust the line accordingly.

They aren't going to spend the time and effort to research what is really going on if the game is Toledo or UTEP or Florida International. They can just toss a line out there and if too many people are betting one side, they change the line.
I tend to agree on this point, not like this is a tournament game.
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 1/28/2025 11:21 AM
Here we are again, none of our own fans believed vs Kent. We win, then return to play what is by most every metric a lesser team and even more pessimism is heaped on top. And also Vegas can't be bothered with our peasant level basketball. Sigh.

Line of 2.5 is about right. With AJ & Aiden it'd be more like 7. But we have good depth and will have capable players on the court. Yes, not the most reliably consistent players. We can certainly win and I expect to. Yes, we can also lose. That makes for an exciting game.

On ESPN2 tonight (How did the MAC get a primetime ESPN2 game in January? Is this a normal thing?, get your butt in the convo and reach down deep for some excitement and optimism. #GoBobcats!
Andrew Ruck
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UofToledoFans
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Posted: 1/28/2025 12:11 PM
Boals is 0-7 at OU in the regular season vs. UT. Yes Ohio is better when healthy. A team with lots of length but lack of bigs is happy the 6'8 dudes are out. Toledo is metrically awful because they are a bottom 40 team in the nation in defense. The fact that 26 points of scoring isn't there will help the Rockets.

Toledo has laid some eggs this season. Oakland and Kent 20+ losses at home. The Rockets also figured out Marshall and EMU which Ohio did not.

There is no team with more variance in the league than Toledo. The good version of was down 5 with 10 minutes against Purdue and lead Akeon by 12 at half. The bad version appears about half of the time. I would read Toledo as maybe a 130 Kenpom or maybe a 270 Kenpom. Rarely anything in-between. If it is it's one half of each. Inconsistoledo.
----MIDNIGHT BLUE AND GOLD LAUNCHPAD PODCAST----
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