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Topic: Official Game 12 Thread: Davidson
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Ted Thompson
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Posted: 12/25/2023 6:11 PM

Use this thread to talk about anything game-related. For away games, we may have a separate travel thread.

Date: Saturday December 30th, 2023 1:30 PM

Event: Legends of Basketball Showcase

Opponent: Davidson  (9-3)

Site: Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse

TV/Streaming: ESPN+

Radio: Ohio Radio, The Varsity Network App (free)

Davidson statistics, roster and media guide

Davidson message board:  DavidsonCats.com 

Follow Ohio Football recruiting on the BobcatAttack.com football recruiting database.

Last Edited: 12/30/2023 12:47:17 PM by Ted Thompson
Old Guy
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Posted: 12/26/2023 1:19 AM
The ESPN website indicates that the game will be streamed on ESPN +. I am unable to verify through another means.
GoCats105
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Posted: 12/26/2023 11:10 AM
Davidson is a hard team to figure out.

-Beat Maryland by 3.
-Lost to Clemson by 3.
-Blown out by 40 by St Marys.
-Beat Wright State by 9.
-Beat Redhawk by 18.

They've only played 3 true road games so far, everything else has been in their home state or at home. They're 119th overall in KenPom, but their best rating by far is Luck, at 36th in the country.

They're led by a 6'10 big man who averages 13 and 6 who also shoots 40% from deep, but the team itself is just ok from long range (33%). They have 6 players averaging 20+ minutes and then a pretty significant drop off to the next 3. If Ohio were a better shooting team this season (and if AJB were healthy) I'd say it would be a run and gun type game with the guards we have. This will be a tough test though.
shabamon
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Posted: 12/26/2023 11:46 AM
There's a fan on their board that keeps a Davidson dunk-o-meter. I'm such a nerd I actually do that too.
bobcatsquared
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Posted: 12/26/2023 1:29 PM
GoCats105 wrote:expand_more
They're led by a 6'10 big man who averages 13 and 6 who also shoots 40% from deep,
That man is David Skogman, who impressed me his first two years of collegiate ball at Buffalo. His transfer to Davidson was part of the beginning of the dip in talent at UB.
Victory
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Posted: 12/26/2023 1:48 PM
GoCats105 wrote:expand_more
Davidson is a hard team to figure out.

-Beat Maryland by 3.
-Lost to Clemson by 3.
-Blown out by 40 by St Marys.
-Beat Wright State by 9.
-Beat Redhawk by 18.

They've only played 3 true road games so far, everything else has been in their home state or at home. They're 119th overall in KenPom, but their best rating by far is Luck, at 36th in the country.

They're led by a 6'10 big man who averages 13 and 6 who also shoots 40% from deep, but the team itself is just ok from long range (33%). They have 6 players averaging 20+ minutes and then a pretty significant drop off to the next 3. If Ohio were a better shooting team this season (and if AJB were healthy) I'd say it would be a run and gun type game with the guards we have. This will be a tough test though.
I don't think that KenPom's luck rating means that we should think of them as less than the 119 best team. It means that the KemPom algorithm believes that they are lucky to be 9-3 against the schedule that they played given that they are "only" the 119th best team. KenPom's rating is predictive. If he had a resume based rating, which is more what the committee goes by, then they would be ranked a lot higher than 119. Hence, they are lucky to have that many wins ion their resume. Usually, a team with a high luck rating has won a bunch of very close games without losing any or hardly any close games. Our Luck rating this year is awful because most our our losses could have easily gone the other way. There was nothing in you post that indicated you we saying that they were an easier opponent than #119 but I'm sure someone reading it was probably thinking that. KenPom says we should be about a 3.5 or 4 point underdog. Their good luck and our bad luck don't affect that and I'd guess that is close to what it will be.

A couple of years ago we started 19-3 and had a top 5 luck rating in all of the few places that have such a rating and that "usually winning close games" really wasn't the case for us. Our schedule wasn't awful and our resume was close to top 25. But we had managed to go the whole year without blowing anyone our OR playing any close games. It was just weird it that every game seemed like an 8 or 9 point type game. It was the lack of blowing out any of our worst opponents and the fact that our resume would have usually indicated a really good team that tipped off the computers that we probably really weren't close to the 25th or so best team in the country.
greencat
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Posted: 12/26/2023 2:55 PM
Victory wrote:expand_more
Davidson is a hard team to figure out.

-Beat Maryland by 3.
-Lost to Clemson by 3.
-Blown out by 40 by St Marys.
-Beat Wright State by 9.
-Beat Redhawk by 18.

They've only played 3 true road games so far, everything else has been in their home state or at home. They're 119th overall in KenPom, but their best rating by far is Luck, at 36th in the country.

They're led by a 6'10 big man who averages 13 and 6 who also shoots 40% from deep, but the team itself is just ok from long range (33%). They have 6 players averaging 20+ minutes and then a pretty significant drop off to the next 3. If Ohio were a better shooting team this season (and if AJB were healthy) I'd say it would be a run and gun type game with the guards we have. This will be a tough test though.
I don't think that KenPom's luck rating means that we should think of them as less than the 119 best team. It means that the KemPom algorithm believes that they are lucky to be 9-3 against the schedule that they played given that they are "only" the 119th best team. KenPom's rating is predictive. If he had a resume based rating, which is more what the committee goes by, then they would be ranked a lot higher than 119. Hence, they are lucky to have that many wins ion their resume. Usually, a team with a high luck rating has won a bunch of very close games without losing any or hardly any close games. Our Luck rating this year is awful because most our our losses could have easily gone the other way. There was nothing in you post that indicated you we saying that they were an easier opponent than #119 but I'm sure someone reading it was probably thinking that. KenPom says we should be about a 3.5 or 4 point underdog. Their good luck and our bad luck don't affect that and I'd guess that is close to what it will be.

A couple of years ago we started 19-3 and had a top 5 luck rating in all of the few places that have such a rating and that "usually winning close games" really wasn't the case for us. Our schedule wasn't awful and our resume was close to top 25. But we had managed to go the whole year without blowing anyone our OR playing any close games. It was just weird it that every game seemed like an 8 or 9 point type game. It was the lack of blowing out any of our worst opponents and the fact that our resume would have usually indicated a really good team that tipped off the computers that we probably really weren't close to the 25th or so best team in the country.
I think team rankings .com said we have a 48% chance of winning...I guess they haven't seen the Bobcats play recently and/or they are not impressed with Davidson's "luck factor" so far.

By the time this game tips off, grades will have been posted for a week. If I J isn't dressed out and ready to play some...he must be toast.
GoCats105
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Posted: 12/26/2023 3:14 PM
Victory wrote:expand_more
Davidson is a hard team to figure out.

-Beat Maryland by 3.
-Lost to Clemson by 3.
-Blown out by 40 by St Marys.
-Beat Wright State by 9.
-Beat Redhawk by 18.

They've only played 3 true road games so far, everything else has been in their home state or at home. They're 119th overall in KenPom, but their best rating by far is Luck, at 36th in the country.

They're led by a 6'10 big man who averages 13 and 6 who also shoots 40% from deep, but the team itself is just ok from long range (33%). They have 6 players averaging 20+ minutes and then a pretty significant drop off to the next 3. If Ohio were a better shooting team this season (and if AJB were healthy) I'd say it would be a run and gun type game with the guards we have. This will be a tough test though.
I don't think that KenPom's luck rating means that we should think of them as less than the 119 best team. It means that the KemPom algorithm believes that they are lucky to be 9-3 against the schedule that they played given that they are "only" the 119th best team. KenPom's rating is predictive. If he had a resume based rating, which is more what the committee goes by, then they would be ranked a lot higher than 119. Hence, they are lucky to have that many wins ion their resume. Usually, a team with a high luck rating has won a bunch of very close games without losing any or hardly any close games. Our Luck rating this year is awful because most our our losses could have easily gone the other way. There was nothing in you post that indicated you we saying that they were an easier opponent than #119 but I'm sure someone reading it was probably thinking that. KenPom says we should be about a 3.5 or 4 point underdog. Their good luck and our bad luck don't affect that and I'd guess that is close to what it will be.

A couple of years ago we started 19-3 and had a top 5 luck rating in all of the few places that have such a rating and that "usually winning close games" really wasn't the case for us. Our schedule wasn't awful and our resume was close to top 25. But we had managed to go the whole year without blowing anyone our OR playing any close games. It was just weird it that every game seemed like an 8 or 9 point type game. It was the lack of blowing out any of our worst opponents and the fact that our resume would have usually indicated a really good team that tipped off the computers that we probably really weren't close to the 25th or so best team in the country.
Based on resume, yes, they would be ranked higher, but I'm not sure how much better of a team they are than Ohio at the present moment. Especially when their Adjusted Offense and Adjusted Defense (which account for opponents) are hovering between 103 (offense) and 152 (defense). Again, hard team to figure out, but they also play at a horribly slow pace (323rd in Tempo - also adjusted for opponent) which is why I wish our guards were clicking on all cylinders. I hope we have a good alumni crowd turn out for this one.
FJC31
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Posted: 12/27/2023 7:43 AM
Initially didn’t seem like Davidson played a lot of size outside Skogman. Reed Bailey is listed as a G, but he’s 6’10. Big game for AJC and Hadaway defensively. With both Skogman and Bailey being threats from 3; this isn’t an ideal matchup for Wiz.
Last Edited: 12/27/2023 7:45:57 AM by FJC31
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 12/27/2023 9:22 AM
Victory wrote:expand_more
But we had managed to go the whole year without blowing anyone our OR playing any close games...
I can't be the only one that had to read this sentence a few times.
Andrew Ruck
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greencat
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Posted: 12/27/2023 10:04 AM
FJC31 wrote:expand_more
Initially didn’t seem like Davidson played a lot of size outside Skogman. Reed Bailey is listed as a G, but he’s 6’10. Big game for AJC and Hadaway defensively. With both Skogman and Bailey being threats from 3; this isn’t an ideal matchup for Wiz.
This game all the way around is not a good matchup for the Bobcats.

Unless Davidson has a horrible shooting game and the good guys hit 40% or better from three...and make 80% at the FT line...our chances are not good at all.

TeamRankings might think we have a 48% chance to win this...28% is more realistic.
Last Edited: 12/27/2023 10:05:55 AM by greencat
FJC31
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Posted: 12/27/2023 10:42 AM
greencat wrote:expand_more
Initially didn’t seem like Davidson played a lot of size outside Skogman. Reed Bailey is listed as a G, but he’s 6’10. Big game for AJC and Hadaway defensively. With both Skogman and Bailey being threats from 3; this isn’t an ideal matchup for Wiz.
This game all the way around is not a good matchup for the Bobcats.

Unless Davidson has a horrible shooting game and the good guys hit 40% or better from three...and make 80% at the FT line...our chances are not good at all.

TeamRankings might think we have a 48% chance to win this...28% is more realistic.
We’ll need a lot to go right for us in this game. It’s a tough one. ESPN also generously is giving us a 63% chance of winning. Guessing that has more to do with it being in Cleveland and 2/3 losses for Davidson being on the road.

FWIW, Davidson lost to ETSU on the road. Won’t be easy, but not impossible.
greencat
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Posted: 12/27/2023 10:55 AM
FJC31 wrote:expand_more
Initially didn’t seem like Davidson played a lot of size outside Skogman. Reed Bailey is listed as a G, but he’s 6’10. Big game for AJC and Hadaway defensively. With both Skogman and Bailey being threats from 3; this isn’t an ideal matchup for Wiz.
This game all the way around is not a good matchup for the Bobcats.

Unless Davidson has a horrible shooting game and the good guys hit 40% or better from three...and make 80% at the FT line...our chances are not good at all.

TeamRankings might think we have a 48% chance to win this...28% is more realistic.
We’ll need a lot to go right for us in this game. It’s a tough one. ESPN also generously is giving us a 63% chance of winning. Guessing that has more to do with it being in Cleveland and 2/3 losses for Davidson being on the road.

FWIW, Davidson lost to ETSU on the road. Won’t be easy, but not impossible.
ETSU lost at Cleve St. by two. They are not horrible.
FJC31
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Posted: 12/27/2023 11:16 AM
greencat wrote:expand_more
Initially didn’t seem like Davidson played a lot of size outside Skogman. Reed Bailey is listed as a G, but he’s 6’10. Big game for AJC and Hadaway defensively. With both Skogman and Bailey being threats from 3; this isn’t an ideal matchup for Wiz.
This game all the way around is not a good matchup for the Bobcats.

Unless Davidson has a horrible shooting game and the good guys hit 40% or better from three...and make 80% at the FT line...our chances are not good at all.

TeamRankings might think we have a 48% chance to win this...28% is more realistic.
We’ll need a lot to go right for us in this game. It’s a tough one. ESPN also generously is giving us a 63% chance of winning. Guessing that has more to do with it being in Cleveland and 2/3 losses for Davidson being on the road.

FWIW, Davidson lost to ETSU on the road. Won’t be easy, but not impossible.
ETSU lost at Cleve St. by two. They are not horrible.
They’re not for sure. 7-5, with some solid transfers from Witchita, Delaware, and Indiana State.
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Posted: 12/27/2023 3:29 PM
Old Guy wrote:expand_more
The ESPN website indicates that the game will be streamed on ESPN +. I am unable to verify through another means.
Davidson's website also shows it on ESPN+.

At least we should get a few more threes to drop. Peay is one of the best in the country at defending threes and it showed last week. But Davidson is defending threes at about the same rate that we're making them. That should help us stay in the game.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

OUs LONG Driver
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Posted: 12/27/2023 4:36 PM
Heading to the game with a group of 15. 6 parents, 9 kids of varying ages. Hoping we make it through most of the Zips game too.

If anyone is looking for tickets the Akron Ticket office got me lower level side seats for $31 per without any additional fees which was lower than the cheapest available prices through Seatgeek for the worst seats in the house.

Oh and our ticket office didn't answer the phone or respond to an email. Yep, it's the holiday season and I'm sure many are off work, but if Akron's department is working and ours isn't that seems a bit off.
M.D.W.S.T
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Posted: 12/28/2023 10:22 AM
Should be a fun weekend for those able to make it up.

OSU has a pretty decent squad this year and Battle from WVU is on a tear since becoming eligible.
GraffZ06
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Posted: 12/28/2023 2:23 PM
This will be a fantastic test for the team on a neutral site similar to GW. Great prep for MAC tourney.

If we win it'll be our marquee OOC victory imo.

That said given our health and current play, unless we magically shoot the lights out of the Q from 3, we're going to get smoked.
oubobcatjohn
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Posted: 12/29/2023 1:33 AM
Fully expect Davidson to wipe us off the floor. Congrats we beat Detroit and Defiance by double digits.
greencat
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Posted: 12/29/2023 8:07 AM
oubobcatjohn wrote:expand_more
Fully expect Davidson to wipe us off the floor. Congrats we beat Detroit and Defiance by double digits.
We almost beat Defiance by triple digits. So there's that.
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 12/29/2023 9:09 AM
Too much pessimism. I know our OOC record has been disappointing but we are right there, and it isn't like we are playing Kansas. Wouldn't be at all surprised if we win.
Andrew Ruck
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The Optimist
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Posted: 12/29/2023 9:16 AM
Andrew Ruck wrote:expand_more
Too much pessimism. I know our OOC record has been disappointing but we are right there, and it isn't like we are playing Kansas. Wouldn't be at all surprised if we win.
Agreed. We are young but talented. Not counting us out of any games at this point
I've seen crazier things happen.
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Posted: 12/29/2023 9:38 AM
The Optimist wrote:expand_more
Too much pessimism. I know our OOC record has been disappointing but we are right there, and it isn't like we are playing Kansas. Wouldn't be at all surprised if we win.
Agreed. We are young but talented. Not counting us out of any games at this point
+1. Our OOC schedule was tough. Removing Defiance, 7/10 teams we’ve played have at least a .500 record. Delaware has 8 wins, CSU has 9, and both GW/YSU have 10. Davidson makes 8/11 with 9 wins.
FearLeon
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Posted: 12/29/2023 10:03 AM
Andrew Ruck wrote:expand_more
Too much pessimism. I know our OOC record has been disappointing but we are right there, and it isn't like we are playing Kansas. Wouldn't be at all surprised if we win.
I'm in this boat. If we win great, but I want to see improvement. I want to see Miles getting better. I want to see three-point shots going down at a 37% clip. I want to see AJB not get hurt every time he falls on the court. I want to see an offense that has some kind of flow that doesn't feature hero ball. I want to see Boals being smarter with rotations in the last 7 minutes of the game. I don't want to see IJ on the bench wearing sweats. It's freaking January 1. You are either in or out.
#BleedGreen #TrentIsGOAT #NoMissesAllowed #NoOtherTeamInAmericaFlexesLikeOhio #11Months
Last Edited: 12/29/2023 10:04:45 AM by FearLeon
M.D.W.S.T
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Posted: 12/29/2023 12:04 PM
FearLeon wrote:expand_more
Too much pessimism. I know our OOC record has been disappointing but we are right there, and it isn't like we are playing Kansas. Wouldn't be at all surprised if we win.
I'm in this boat. If we win great, but I want to see improvement. I want to see Miles getting better. I want to see three-point shots going down at a 37% clip. I want to see AJB not get hurt every time he falls on the court. I want to see an offense that has some kind of flow that doesn't feature hero ball. I want to see Boals being smarter with rotations in the last 7 minutes of the game. I don't want to see IJ on the bench wearing sweats. It's freaking January 1. You are either in or out.
Correct.

Improvement, even if a little bit, is still improvement. This day and age all that matters are the three weeks in March. Let's figure out our identity and make a run. We have six shoot-first guards in the rotation. Hadaway is starting to get real minutes, and playing quite well. Dare I say, Wiz is playing more efficient minutes... we're a long ways off, but call me crazy, I think pieces are STARTING to come around... figuring out this rotation and everyones roles is gonna be huge.

Wins will come, but I really want to see us get comfortable in the rotation, defined roles, free throws keep improving, improve on 3-point efficiency... players start figuring out where they need to be, when they have the green light, who should be taking the shot...
Last Edited: 12/29/2023 12:05:54 PM by M.D.W.S.T
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