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Topic: Lots of tightening at the top
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shabamon
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Posted: 2/26/2023 10:28 AM
I don't see a scenario where Buffalo can pass us. The only way we can even tie them is we lose out and Buffalo wins out. They also don't have wins over Kent or Toledo but beat Ball State. We would have tiebreaker via our win over Akron whereas Buffalo lost to them twice.

NIU passes us if we lose out and they win out.

If we get in a three team tie with those two, we win as NIU will not have a win over us or UB and then we have tiebreaker over UB.

We will either be the 4, 5, or 6.
FearLeon
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Posted: 2/26/2023 1:53 PM
shabamon wrote:expand_more
I don't see a scenario where Buffalo can pass us. The only way we can even tie them is we lose out and Buffalo wins out. They also don't have wins over Kent or Toledo but beat Ball State. We would have tiebreaker via our win over Akron whereas Buffalo lost to them twice.

NIU passes us if we lose out and they win out.

If we get in a three team tie with those two, we win as NIU will not have a win over us or UB and then we have tiebreaker over UB.

We will either be the 4, 5, or 6.
At the end of the day, I'd rather take my chances in a 4-5 game against Ball State (which will be difficult) over a 4-5 game against Freeman and Castaneda (which will be more difficult).

Something tells me we might have to still beat BG to not fall into the 6th spot.
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shabamon
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Posted: 2/27/2023 10:46 AM
There is a pretty significant non-zero chance we play Kent in the first round. If they get in a three team tie with Ball State and Akron, they're at the bottom of that tie breaker and would be the four. We would lock up the five seed in this scenario as Ball State would get a win and we would have beaten Kent.

Also, if we lose out, NIU wins out, and Akron beats Kent, we would get Kent as the 3/6 matchup.

There is no mathematical possibility of playing Toledo in the first round.
shabamon
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Posted: 2/28/2023 9:01 PM
As long as Buffalo doesn't blow their big lead at NIU, we are now locked in a 4/5 matchup with Ball State.
Cellis033
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Posted: 2/28/2023 9:03 PM
shabamon wrote:expand_more
As long as Buffalo doesn't blow their big lead at NIU, we are now locked in a 4/5 matchup with Ball State.
Unlike last year if we get Ball State will be a much bigger challenge this year compared to last year.
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OhioCatFan
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Posted: 2/28/2023 9:17 PM
Cellis033 wrote:expand_more
As long as Buffalo doesn't blow their big lead at NIU, we are now locked in a 4/5 matchup with Ball State.
Unlike last year if we get Ball State will be a much bigger challenge this year compared to last year.
Yep, Testicle Tech looked very good against UA at Akron. I'll be elated if we get past that first round. As I said earlier, I think we are CBI bound.
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shabamon
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Posted: 2/28/2023 10:05 PM
And that's that. The 4/5 match is set.

What's most interesting with one game to go is there is one spot up for grabs and four teams still alive to get it. Miami is ahead of CMU, EMU, and BG, but with a road game at Buffalo, they may as well be outside looking in. If they lose and ANY of those other three win on Friday, Miami is OUT. They would not win any combination of two, three, or four team tiebreakers. Their only win among that group is against BG, but those two split their series. If they're alone in a tiebreaker with BG (meaning BG would beat us), BG gets in as we are the highest ranked win between the two and BG's 2-0 is better than Miami's 1-1.
MonroeClassmate
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Posted: 2/28/2023 11:08 PM
shabamon wrote:expand_more
And that's that. The 4/5 match is set.

What's most interesting with one game to go is there is one spot up for grabs and four teams still alive to get it. Miami is ahead of CMU, EMU, and BG, but with a road game at Buffalo, they may as well be outside looking in. If they lose and ANY of those other three win on Friday, Miami is OUT. They would not win any combination of two, three, or four team tiebreakers. Their only win among that group is against BG, but those two split their series. If they're alone in a tiebreaker with BG (meaning BG would beat us), BG gets in as we are the highest ranked win between the two and BG's 2-0 is better than Miami's 1-1.
So if Buffalo beats Miami, OHIO can keep it's rival at home by taking a dive vs BGSU?

Will Boals give rest to Wilson Friday in a quick turnaround meaningless game. Or does he not want to go into Cleveland on a three game slide?
shabamon
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Posted: 3/1/2023 8:27 AM
MonroeClassmate wrote:expand_more
And that's that. The 4/5 match is set.

What's most interesting with one game to go is there is one spot up for grabs and four teams still alive to get it. Miami is ahead of CMU, EMU, and BG, but with a road game at Buffalo, they may as well be outside looking in. If they lose and ANY of those other three win on Friday, Miami is OUT. They would not win any combination of two, three, or four team tiebreakers. Their only win among that group is against BG, but those two split their series. If they're alone in a tiebreaker with BG (meaning BG would beat us), BG gets in as we are the highest ranked win between the two and BG's 2-0 is better than Miami's 1-1.
So if Buffalo beats Miami, OHIO can keep it's rival at home by taking a dive vs BGSU?

Will Boals give rest to Wilson Friday in a quick turnaround meaningless game. Or does he not want to go into Cleveland on a three game slide?
Ha. Chess not checkers. Who do you think has the best chance to beat Toledo or Kent in an 8/1 matchup? I'd cheer for the outcome of 1) We beat BG (eliminates BG) 2) EMU beats NIU (eliminates CMU regardless of what the Chips do against WMU) 3) Buffalo beats Miami. EMU gets the spot and maybe Bates, Farrakhan, and/or Acuff catch heat.
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 3/1/2023 8:36 AM
Miami is blazing hot right now. I could definitely see them winning at Buffalo and then being a possible disruptive 8 seed.
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OU_Country
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Posted: 3/1/2023 10:00 AM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
As long as Buffalo doesn't blow their big lead at NIU, we are now locked in a 4/5 matchup with Ball State.
Unlike last year if we get Ball State will be a much bigger challenge this year compared to last year.
Yep, Testicle Tech looked very good against UA at Akron. I'll be elated if we get past that first round. As I said earlier, I think we are CBI bound.
The CBI would be a great thing if we see the coaching staff give all of the young guys major minutes during it.
M.D.W.S.T
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Posted: 3/1/2023 10:18 AM
FearLeon wrote:expand_more
At the end of the day, I'd rather take my chances in a 4-5 game against Ball State (which will be difficult) over a 4-5 game against Freeman and Castaneda (which will be more difficult).

Something tells me we might have to still beat BG to not fall into the 6th spot.
Have to win to avoid any tie-break scenarios.

OU loss: 9-9
Buffalo win vs Miami: 9-9
NIU win vs Eastern Michigan: 9-9

Unsure of how tie-breakers work, but we beat NIU twice, split Buffalo. Overall record?

Think we're solid in that 5th spot in a winnable game vs Ball State.

Shoutout to Akron for winning 4 of the last 5 and jumping to #3.

Hypothetical run Ball State -> vs Toledo on the 10th -> vs Kent State for the Championship on the 11th
shabamon
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Posted: 3/1/2023 10:35 AM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
At the end of the day, I'd rather take my chances in a 4-5 game against Ball State (which will be difficult) over a 4-5 game against Freeman and Castaneda (which will be more difficult).

Something tells me we might have to still beat BG to not fall into the 6th spot.
Have to win to avoid any tie-break scenarios.

OU loss: 9-9
Buffalo win vs Miami: 9-9
NIU win vs Eastern Michigan: 9-9

Unsure of how tie-breakers work, but we beat NIU twice, split Buffalo. Overall record?
NIU would be at the bottom of that tiebreaker as they went 0-4 against us and Buffalo while Buffalo and Ohio are both 3-1 in that grouping. We split head to head so it goes to win percentage against the top of the standings downward. Neither we nor Buffalo got a win over Kent or Toledo, but we did beat Akron once and Buffalo did not, so we come out on top.
Alan Swank
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Posted: 3/1/2023 11:56 AM
OU_Country wrote:expand_more
As long as Buffalo doesn't blow their big lead at NIU, we are now locked in a 4/5 matchup with Ball State.
Unlike last year if we get Ball State will be a much bigger challenge this year compared to last year.
Yep, Testicle Tech looked very good against UA at Akron. I'll be elated if we get past that first round. As I said earlier, I think we are CBI bound.
The CBI would be a great thing if we see the coaching staff give all of the young guys major minutes during it.
We often see this argument as a justification of playing in these made up tournaments. This is a small sample but the last 5 CBI winners went 46 - 39 in league play the year they won the CBI. The next year, they went 38 -50.
Bobcat1998
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Posted: 3/1/2023 1:27 PM
OU_Country wrote:expand_more
As long as Buffalo doesn't blow their big lead at NIU, we are now locked in a 4/5 matchup with Ball State.
Unlike last year if we get Ball State will be a much bigger challenge this year compared to last year.
Yep, Testicle Tech looked very good against UA at Akron. I'll be elated if we get past that first round. As I said earlier, I think we are CBI bound.
The CBI would be a great thing if we see the coaching staff give all of the young guys major minutes during it.
This staff doesn't know what it wants to do with players. Hadaway got thrown into the Kent game and I will be honest, he didn't do anything major but he didn't suck either. I still don't know why Olumide doesn't play. Other than Elmore James, he is the only guy on our roster who has the athleticism (from what I've seen of him) to hang with Kent. Maybe if he was out there against Kant instead of B-Rod they wouldn't have backed him down as easily for buckets like Jacobs did EVERY TIME. I don't know if I want to see this team play any more if they don't win the MAC. It's been as frustrating of a 17-13 year as it could be. Definitely not Saul-like but very frustrating because I find myself questioning Boals' moves.
Last Edited: 3/1/2023 1:28:24 PM by Bobcat1998
Deciduous Forest Cat
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Posted: 3/1/2023 2:58 PM
Alan Swank wrote:expand_more
As long as Buffalo doesn't blow their big lead at NIU, we are now locked in a 4/5 matchup with Ball State.
Unlike last year if we get Ball State will be a much bigger challenge this year compared to last year.
Yep, Testicle Tech looked very good against UA at Akron. I'll be elated if we get past that first round. As I said earlier, I think we are CBI bound.
The CBI would be a great thing if we see the coaching staff give all of the young guys major minutes during it.
We often see this argument as a justification of playing in these made up tournaments. This is a small sample but the last 5 CBI winners went 46 - 39 in league play the year they won the CBI. The next year, they went 38 -50.
I don't think that says much. tournament winners are usually experienced teams that will lose key players. Just because they win fewer games the next year doesn't mean the experience isn't valuable.

by the way, aren't all tournaments "made-up"? I don't think many of them were around in the old testament years. or... maybe? Did God send down the first NCAA and NIT brackets on stone tablets? The rest are "made-up"?
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 3/1/2023 3:53 PM
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:expand_more
. . . Did God send down the first NCAA and NIT brackets on stone tablets? . . .
I believe that is correct, and Dick Vitale went up to the top of Mt. Whitney to receive them. He then proceeded down the east side of the mountain to Las Vegas where he saw the fickle fans already placing their bets at Golden Calf Casino. He promptly smashed the tablets and had to go back up the mountain to receive them again. God was not happy with the fans, and placed His curse on them saying, "Your betting will never prosper, the money changers in Las Vegas will reap where they have not sown, their silos will overflow."
The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

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Last Edited: 3/1/2023 3:53:48 PM by OhioCatFan
FJC31
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Posted: 3/1/2023 4:18 PM
Bobcat1998 wrote:expand_more
As long as Buffalo doesn't blow their big lead at NIU, we are now locked in a 4/5 matchup with Ball State.
Unlike last year if we get Ball State will be a much bigger challenge this year compared to last year.
Yep, Testicle Tech looked very good against UA at Akron. I'll be elated if we get past that first round. As I said earlier, I think we are CBI bound.
The CBI would be a great thing if we see the coaching staff give all of the young guys major minutes during it.
This staff doesn't know what it wants to do with players. Hadaway got thrown into the Kent game and I will be honest, he didn't do anything major but he didn't suck either. I still don't know why Olumide doesn't play. Other than Elmore James, he is the only guy on our roster who has the athleticism (from what I've seen of him) to hang with Kent. Maybe if he was out there against Kant instead of B-Rod they wouldn't have backed him down as easily for buckets like Jacobs did EVERY TIME. I don't know if I want to see this team play any more if they don't win the MAC. It's been as frustrating of a 17-13 year as it could be. Definitely not Saul-like but very frustrating because I find myself questioning Boals' moves.
+1. Hadaway, imo, has the athletic ceiling we want. However, he’s only played in 7 MAC games. I’m not sure he’ll come back next season (I’d like him to). Your guess is as good as anyone’s as to why Olumide doesn’t play. If we’re not going to use him, just cut him loose in 12 days and use the scholarship elsewhere.

17-13 leaves a lot to be desired. Big off-season for Boals and staff. Next year’s schedule might shape up to be pretty tough again before P5 adds; between Baha Mar Tourney (assuming Boals comments were accurate) and MAC/Sun Belt Challenge — the former might have six 20 win teams this season.
Last Edited: 3/1/2023 4:19:01 PM by FJC31
GraffZ06
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Posted: 3/3/2023 1:42 AM
FJC31 wrote:expand_more
Your guess is as good as anyone’s as to why Olumide doesn’t play. If we’re not going to use him, just cut him loose in 12 days and use the scholarship elsewhere.
It's not rocket science. He's a massive liability on the offensive side. He can't shoot and he turns it over at a high rate. It's at a point where the negatives on the offensive end out-weigh the positives on the defensive end. When that equation tilts closer to neutral or positive, he'll get minutes.

And you don't really want to cut him loose as he is one of the VERY FEW on this entire roster with length and athleticism at the wing, and who can defend. Things we desperately need. You just hope he develops his offense over time and he could be a really nice piece moving forward. You don't cut those guys loose, you develop them.

Maybe he develops and maybe he doesn't. Welcome to college athletics.
FJC31
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Posted: 3/3/2023 8:36 AM
GraffZ06 wrote:expand_more
Your guess is as good as anyone’s as to why Olumide doesn’t play. If we’re not going to use him, just cut him loose in 12 days and use the scholarship elsewhere.
It's not rocket science. He's a massive liability on the offensive side. He can't shoot and he turns it over at a high rate. It's at a point where the negatives on the offensive end out-weigh the positives on the defensive end. When that equation tilts closer to neutral or positive, he'll get minutes.

And you don't really want to cut him loose as he is one of the VERY FEW on this entire roster with length and athleticism at the wing, and who can defend. Things we desperately need. You just hope he develops his offense over time and he could be a really nice piece moving forward. You don't cut those guys loose, you develop them.

Maybe he develops and maybe he doesn't. Welcome to college athletics.
You somewhat just described Wiz. The main difference is Wiz is 6’11 and Olumide isn’t. Both have more negatives than positives in their game, but we’re (staff) being more patient with one over the other when it comes to playing time.

In this era of college athletics you do cut guys loose and find the next in the portal. I’m not saying I want that for Olumidae because I agree with your upside assessment. Outside of Dwight, everyone on this year’s roster had their flaws. In what was never likely going to be a MAC title run, working Olumide in more for development purposes for next season would have been nice to see.

We still don’t know what we have in him going into his 3rd year; and we’re not exactly at a place talent wise overall to have that unknown imo.
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 3/3/2023 11:05 AM
So are we playing Ball State regardless of what happens tonight? Or might we end up playing Buffalo if they win and we lose. I'm totally confused. I'd rather play the Beefs in the first round than the Cardinals.
The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

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Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org
Last Edited: 3/3/2023 11:35:25 AM by OhioCatFan
Victory
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Posted: 3/3/2023 12:47 PM
OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
So are we playing Ball State regardless of what happens tonight? Or might we end up playing Buffalo if they win and we lose. I'm totally confused. I'd rather play the Beefs in the first round than the Cardinals.
We play Ball State.
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 3/3/2023 1:36 PM
Victory wrote:expand_more
So are we playing Ball State regardless of what happens tonight? Or might we end up playing Buffalo if they win and we lose. I'm totally confused. I'd rather play the Beefs in the first round than the Cardinals.
We play Ball State.
OK, well, IMHO, that's not good -- Unless Boals unwraps that hidden talent he's kept on the bench all year!
The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org
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