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For Ohio (the Bobcats) to shock the world and beat Ohio State (the Buckeyes) this Saturday night in Columbus, here’s what would realistically need to happen:
1. Win the Turnover Battle (and by a lot)
Ohio State is loaded with five-star talent everywhere. The only way a MAC team hangs is if the Buckeyes beat themselves a little.
Ohio needs 3+ takeaways—a strip-sack, an interception on a tipped ball, maybe even a muffed punt.
If Ohio doesn’t have a plus-2 or better turnover margin, it’s nearly impossible to pull the upset.
2. Shorten the Game
Ohio State thrives when they can roll out wave after wave of skill talent. Ohio needs to limit possessions:
Long, clock-eating drives led by QB Parker Navarro (who has real dual-threat ability).
Establishing the run early—even just three yards at a time—keeps Ohio State’s offense on the sideline.
Convert on 3rd and 4th downs to keep the clock moving.
Think Army/Navy style: ugly, but effective.
3. Special Teams Magic
Every historic upset features a “did you see that?!” moment:
A blocked punt or kick return touchdown flips momentum.
Perfect execution on a fake punt or onside kick could steal a possession.
If Ohio plays straight up in special teams, they’re at a disadvantage. They need to gamble here.
4. Limit Explosive Plays
Ohio State has wideouts (like Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate) who can break the game open. Ohio must:
Play deep safeties, keep everything in front.
Force OSU to drive 10+ plays instead of scoring in 2.
Hope that patience leads to a Buckeye mistake.
5. Navarro’s Career Game
The quarterback is the equalizer in college football. Navarro has to:
Hit on at least two deep shots to loosen Ohio State’s defense.
Rush for 80–100 yards on broken plays.
Be mistake-free (no picks, no fumbles).
If he’s just “average,” Ohio doesn’t have a chance.
6. Crowd/Pressure Factor
Ohio State will be a 34-point favorite and may come in flat. If Ohio jumps out early (say, 10–0 or 14–7 after one quarter), the pressure flips: the Buckeye crowd gets quiet, players tighten up, and suddenly every drive feels like do-or-die for the heavy favorite.
7. One Breakout Hero
Upsets often hinge on an unexpected star:
A backup RB who suddenly busts a 60-yard TD.
A DB who has the game of his life with two picks.
A defensive lineman who’s in the QB’s face all night.
Ohio needs that kind of performance from someone not on the scouting report.
The Formula
Turnovers: +3 or better.
Time of Possession: 35+ minutes.
Explosive Plays Allowed: Fewer than 3.
Navarro: 300+ total yards, 3 TDs.
Special Teams: At least one game-changing play.
Do those things—and catch Ohio State in a look-ahead or flat performance—and suddenly the impossible becomes possible.
Turney Duff
Twitter: @turneyduff