Bobcat Attack - Ohio Football - Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Miami (OH)

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Topic: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Miami (OH)

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L.C.

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Posted: 12/4/2024 9:38 AM

OhioBobcat wrote:expand_more

Ohio is going to win the MAC Championship!
...

I've got a very, very good feeling about this game. I'm going to take the unusual step of agreeing with OhioBobcat. Ohio is going to win the MACC. They have improved a lot since the first game. Miami is much the same team as last year, so their game to game improvement is incrementally smaller. Ohio has a lot of new players, and that meant a lot to learn, about the playbook, about Ohio systems, and about each other. Game by game, they have improved a lot, and they are a much better team than the first time.

I call this one Ohio 27, Miami 17.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

SBH

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Posted: 12/4/2024 10:21 AM

The events of last Saturday in Columbus should remind us that "good feelings" don't guarantee good outcomes.

Let's not upset the spirits of the gridiron.

IceCat76

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Posted: 12/4/2024 10:30 AM

SBH wrote:expand_more

The events of last Saturday in Columbus should remind us that "good feelings" don't guarantee good outcomes.

Let's not upset the spirits of the gridiron.

I had good feelings that Michigan would beat OSU and they did. Nothing wrong about good feelings

M.D.W.S.T

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Posted: 12/4/2024 10:38 AM

SBH wrote:expand_more

The events of last Saturday in Columbus should remind us that "good feelings" don't guarantee good outcomes.

Let's not upset the spirits of the gridiron.

I talked with some spirits last night, they hate Miami also.

OhioCatFan

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Posted: 12/4/2024 11:22 AM

M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more

SBH wrote:expand_more

The events of last Saturday in Columbus should remind us that "good feelings" don't guarantee good outcomes.

Let's not upset the spirits of the gridiron.

I talked with some spirits last night, they hate Miami also.

Talking to yourself while drinking spirits doesn't usually result in great insights! ;-)

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

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OhioBobcat

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Posted: 12/5/2024 12:04 PM

L.C. wrote:expand_more

OhioBobcat wrote:expand_more

Ohio is going to win the MAC Championship!
...

IMO, the MAC schedule was a HUGE advantage for Ohio to get to this point. There was no BG, NIU or WMU on it and that jumped out at me immediately when it was released. BG ended up being better than I expected, NIU is better than their record, and WMU was the top team of the directional MI schools. Having those three pushed aside probably saved Ohio from another MAC loss. The next key was getting a split vs Miami and Toledo, and Ohio did just that. The other key was for whoever Ohio was in the running with at the end (turned out to be BG and Miami) for those teams to have a conference loss and a tough game at the end. And that was exactly what happened with both BG and Miami as they had to play one another. How confident was I that Ohio would get to Detroit? Very. And I put my money where my thinking was. After Ohio's loss to Syracuse, Ohio's odds of winning the MAC stood briefly stood at +1450. I jumped all over that and threw down a nice wager on it. Over the next 11 weeks, those odds have come down to almost a pick for the MACC game. If Ohio wins, so do I! This season has felt different to me then and still feels that way now. I'm expecting a very, very GREEN Saturday.

L.C.

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Posted: 12/5/2024 1:03 PM

OhioBobcat wrote:expand_more

IMO, the MAC schedule was a HUGE advantage for Ohio to get to this point. There was no BG, NIU or WMU on it...

In the MAC, there were 4 teams ahead of the rest. How many of the top 4 did each play?
Miami: played 2/3, missing only Buffalo. Miami was 2-0
Ohio: played 2/3, missing only BG. Ohio went 1-1
BG: played 1/3, missing both Buffalo and Ohio. BG was 0-1
Buffalo played 1/3, missing both Miami and BG. Buffalo was 0-1

Among the next three, it was:
WMU played 2/4, missing both Ohio and Miami. WMU went 1-1 against the top 4.
NIU played 3/4, missing Ohio. They went 1-2
Toledo played all four. They went 1-3

Ranking the schedules from easiest to hardest, it goes:
1. Buffalo/BG (tie)
3. WMU
4. Ohio/Miami (tie)
6. NIU
7. Toledo

Ohio was right in the middle. They did not have a free ride. I would argue that Buffalo and BG did, but they didn't win when they needed to. Toledo and NIU had the hardest paths, and I'd feel sorry for them, had they won half their games against the top four, but they didn't.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

Rufusbobcat94

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Posted: 12/5/2024 6:00 PM

ExCat21 wrote:expand_more

This is what we asked for. This is the game we all wanted. In order to win, we must beat our main rival to stop a potential 3 game losing streak. It doesn't get any better than this. This game will be remembered for a long time and to have a 1-0 record against them in a championship game would be fantastic

Keys to the game:

1. Both teams have good defenses so staying ahead of the chains and avoiding sacks/TFLs is critical. Field position is everything this game.

2. Salopek. This guy is the heart of Miami defense. Calling zone runs away from him or pulling OL to his side for extra blocking on runs can really slow him down. I would not try to throw in his zone on pass plays.

3. Confuse Gabbert. Mix man coverage with zone press (looks like man at the snap). It can be a great scheme to force some bad decisions. Gabbert has been taking deeps shots with Virgil and McDonald at WR. Ideally, we need to take away those deep shots early (no defensive holding/PI calls) and force Gabbert to throw elsewhere or hold the ball longer.

4. No turnovers. We have to play a clean game with minimal penalties. Especially, those 15+ penalties.

5. Time to bring out the old option pass after we run a successful option to get a first down. With Miami playing heavy zone, we must force them to come downhill to eventually get behind their DBs.

6. With Miami playing heavy zone, jet and orbit motions are good ways to get catch their defense in bad positions. Our pre-snap motions can be great decoys for PA passes and quick underneath routes.

7. Keep Mozee from bouncing runs to the outside. Easy to say, hard to do. Little backs are shifty and he hides well on inside/outside zone runs.

Yeah, I remember you saying this is what you wanted to see and here we are. You make a lot of good points too

Last Edited: 12/5/2024 6:03:14 PM by Rufusbobcat94

Rufusbobcat94

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Posted: 12/5/2024 6:02 PM

I have some family that lives around Cleveland that is looking for a watch party, like at a bar. Does anyone know of any place hosting anything?

JHSbobcat08

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Posted: 12/5/2024 7:50 PM

It’s not healthy, but Saturday is going to determine my mood for a while

OhioBobcat

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Posted: 12/6/2024 12:09 AM

L.C. wrote:expand_more

OhioBobcat wrote:expand_more

IMO, the MAC schedule was a HUGE advantage for Ohio to get to this point. There was no BG, NIU or WMU on it...

I see the logic behind what you mapped out, but it’s not applicable across the board that way. It would only apply if it was round robin and everyone played everyone, which obviously no one did. The paths varied for all the schools. You can’t just rank how the top four teams did head to head vs one another and leave out how they got into the top four. That’s the issue now with throwing out the divisions. It’s not always who you play that’s important, but it’s also who you don’t play that’s equally important. Phil Steele had what I’m suggesting in a podcast the other day. He said WMU had the easiest MAC schedule, followed by Ohio. His breakdown considered a number of variables including some I mentioned above.

L.C.

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Posted: 12/6/2024 7:19 AM

The Top 4 were the top 4 because they also, generally, took care of business against the non Top 4 teams:
Miami slipped up against Toledo
Ohio took care of business
BG slipped up against NIU
Buffalo slipped up against WMU

WMU slipped up against CMU and NIU
NIU slipped up against Toledo and Ball St
Toledo slipped up against Akron

You can't look at this data and not conclude that the two teams playing in the MACC game are the two that deserve to be there. Miami won all games against the top 4, and only screwed up once. Ohio was 1-1 against the top four, and never screwed up at all. While WMU was also 1-1 against the top four, they also screwed up not once, but twice. Neither BG or Buffalo beat any other team in the top 4.

There will indeed be years where the current system leads to the wrong teams playing in Detroit. For an extreme example, look at who Indiana played, and they could easily have been in their championship game. This year, however, the MAC system worked, and the two teams that belong in the championship game are the two that are there.

Consider, that if the MAC still had divisions, the Championship game would be 7-1 Miami versus 4-4 Toledo. Who here thinks that a team that was destroyed by Ohio, and which lost to Akron, belongs in the Championship ahead of Ohio?

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

Ted Thompson

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Posted: 12/6/2024 8:40 AM

Oct. 28, 2023: Miami defeats Ohio in Athens, takes control of MAC East

Oct. 19, 2024: Ohio falls to Miami in Oxford

Revenge is on the minds of the Bobcats in the biggest game of this rivalry's history--@romanparodie_ says, "We're coming"

🎥: @KieferMedia pic.twitter.com/hxKKKqFa2b
— WOUB Bobcat Showcase (@BobcatShowcase) December 6, 2024

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M.D.W.S.T

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Posted: 12/6/2024 9:49 AM

Rufusbobcat94 wrote:expand_more

I have some family that lives around Cleveland that is looking for a watch party, like at a bar. Does anyone know of any place hosting anything?

Pretty certain Barley House is still an OU bar.

Ted Thompson

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Posted: 12/6/2024 10:24 AM

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100%Cat

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Posted: 12/6/2024 10:57 AM

Turnovers are what worry me. Navarro has shown that he will give the ball away at times. That can't happen tomorrow.

J.B.Hoy

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Posted: 12/6/2024 12:54 PM

From the interview above:
Coach anticipates 2 'supercharged' fan bases at the game.
I sure as hell hope that we have noticeably more fans than Oxford Tech.

Watching from here in Portland with a bloody Mary firmly in hand.

Come on Bobcats, let's beat Miami!!

77 Mulberry

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Posted: 12/6/2024 12:58 PM

I was there for the 1968 championship game in the frozen tundra called BG. As I recall Ohio was down 27-14 with under 5 minutes left and pulled out a 28-27 win. Best game I ever saw.56 years is a long time so please take them down.

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Posted: 12/6/2024 2:52 PM

Statistically the teams' defenses are pretty evenly matched. They're first and second in MAC games in scoring defense, rushing defense and passing defense, and third and fourth in sacks. MOFO has an 11-7 edge in INTs, but they're about even in throwing INTs (five for MOFO, six for Ohio) so it might not be that big of a factor. Ohio has forced eight fumbles MOFO's four.

Offensively, MOFO has a 40 ypg edge in passing offense but has given up 13 sacks to Ohio's eight. Ohio has a 66 ypg edge in rushing offense and a slight edge in scoring (three pts). Ohio also has a big edge in third-down conversions (51% to 36%). But MOFO is +6 in turnovers while Ohio is +3.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

Rufusbobcat94

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Posted: 12/6/2024 7:10 PM

M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more

Rufusbobcat94 wrote:expand_more

I have some family that lives around Cleveland that is looking for a watch party, like at a bar. Does anyone know of any place hosting anything?

Pretty certain Barley House is still an OU bar.

Thank you!

Rufusbobcat94

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Posted: 12/6/2024 7:32 PM

Pataskala wrote:expand_more

Yep, they each have their strengths, but Ohio's offense has been shut down the last two times out. I'd like to see Ohio do more stuff to get safe throws involved. Hit Tyus III in the passing game over the middle. Get TE Williams involved.

Navarro, Tyus, or Coleman are always a threat but i think we need either someone else to step up like Hendricks, Harris II or Dennis or someone that is playing outside their typical role like Tyus III in the passing game.

Also, a big thing that cost BGSU last week is they did not do the little things in all phases and they paid for it. Anything that means field position we have to execute at least decently. No shanked punts. No non-fielded punts that roll 25 yards, etc.

Rufusbobcat94

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Posted: 12/6/2024 7:34 PM

100%Cat wrote:expand_more

Turnovers are what worry me. Navarro has shown that he will give the ball away at times. That can't happen tomorrow.

Rightfully so. We cannot give field position away, giving up short fields and easy points. If Ohio's defense is not on the field in impossible situations, Ohio has a chance to slow Gabbert and company.

Ohio has gotten away with some turnovers this year but a couple in this game could be fatal

Rufusbobcat94

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Posted: 12/6/2024 7:39 PM

77 Mulberry wrote:expand_more

For real? So cool. Sounds like a great finish. I was at the 2016 loss to Western Michigan and the result hurt but i was really prOUd of how our team competed. WMU had one of the best offenses in the MAC in decades (1998-99 Marshall?) but constantly held them to field goals and could have legit won.

I can't even say how psyched I would be for Ohio to beat their rival and end this championship drought.

OhioCatFan

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Posted: 12/7/2024 12:37 AM

77 Mulberry wrote:expand_more

I was there too in that wind-swept old BG stadium. Do you remember the key PI call against BG in that final drive? Todd Snyder was the intended receiver. My BG grad friend still says it was a bad call. I say it was very clear and flagrant. What say you? ;-)