Turnovers can play a critical role in the outcome of games, and they can also be somewhat random. I went back and looked at the turnovers last year and this year, on a game by game basis, and this is what I found:

When Ohio was +3 or better in turnovers (big advantage):
2022 Ohio was 2-0
2023 Ohio is 1-0

When Ohio was +1 or +2 in turnovers (slight advantage):
2022 Ohio was 3-1 (loss was to Kent St)
2023 Ohio is 4-0

When Ohio was even:
2022 Ohio was 3-1 (loss was to Penn St)
2023 Ohio is 1-0

When Ohio was -1 or -2 (slight disadvantage):
2022 Ohio was 1-1 (loss was to Toledo)
2023 Ohio is 1-2 (losses to Miami, San Diego St)

When Ohio was -3 or worse (big disadvantage)
2022 Ohio was 0-1 (loss was to Iowa State)
2023 Ohio is 0-1 (loss to NIU)

In the end, it is a significant difference that last year, Ohio was near the top, #4 in the country in turnover ratio, while this year Ohio is a middle of the pack #51. Last year, Ohio was 8-2 when they had an even or better turnover ratio, and was 1-2 when they had a negative turnover ratio. This year, Ohio is an undefeated 6-0 with a neutral or better turnover ratio, but only 1-3 with a negative ratio.

Yes, it's great to get more turnovers, and to try to turn it over less, but things don't always work out that way, since the other team is trying to do the same thing.


Ohio has not lost a game yet this year when they have a positive or neutral turnover ratio.

Ohio was +2 in turnovers against both CMU and Akron, which moved Ohio up to #31 in net turnover margin. The final results, not including bowl were:

When Ohio was +3 or better in turnovers (big advantage):
2022 Ohio was 2-0
2023 Ohio is 1-0

When Ohio was +1 or +2 in turnovers (slight advantage):
2022 Ohio was 3-1 (loss was to Kent St)
2023 Ohio is 6-0

When Ohio was even:
2022 Ohio was 3-1 (loss was to Penn St)
2023 Ohio is 1-0

When Ohio was -1 or -2 (slight disadvantage):
2022 Ohio was 1-1 (loss was to Toledo)
2023 Ohio is 1-2 (losses to Miami, San Diego St)

When Ohio was -3 or worse (big disadvantage)
2022 Ohio was 0-1 (loss was to Iowa State)
2023 Ohio is 0-1 (loss to NIU)

So, Ohio was an undefeated 8-0 when they were equal or better on turnovers, and 1-3 when they had a turnover disadvantage. Last year Ohio was 8-2 when equal or better, and 1-2 when they had a turnover disadvantage.

Note that Miami played Toledo twice. In the first game, Miami was -2 in turnovers, and lost. In the second game, Miami was +2 in turnovers, and won.

Turnovers are important as ever with the clock rule changes. The clock is stopped less often so teams get less possessions. There are also elements of luck and randomness associated with turnovers, so you really need to capitalize when things go your way.