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Topic: Official Game 9 Thread: Miami (OH)
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Jeff McKinney
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Posted: 10/24/2023 11:38 PM
Bring your rain gear Saturday. Forecast getting more ominous by the day.
BryanHall
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Posted: 10/25/2023 12:34 PM
Jeff McKinney wrote:expand_more
Bring your rain gear Saturday. Forecast getting more ominous by the day.
Gotta think that bad weather helps the bad guys more. I expect them to be more run-oriented with Gabbert out.
Deciduous Forest Cat
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Posted: 10/25/2023 12:45 PM
What I'm seeing is it seems like most of the rain will be in the morning. still a chance in the afternoon, but mostly warm and dry. However, if the forecast tightens up and Saturday night rain arrives sooner as it sometimes does, then it could get messy.
Last Edited: 10/25/2023 12:47:19 PM by Deciduous Forest Cat
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 10/25/2023 1:20 PM
Jeff McKinney wrote:expand_more
Bring your rain gear Saturday. Forecast getting more ominous by the day.
Thank you, Mr. BA Weatherman.
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M.D.W.S.T
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Posted: 10/25/2023 1:40 PM
BryanHall wrote:expand_more
Bring your rain gear Saturday. Forecast getting more ominous by the day.
Gotta think that bad weather helps the bad guys more. I expect them to be more run-oriented with Gabbert out.
Rain always makes me nervous, but considering we operate entirely from the shotgun... tough combo.

Would love to see them mix in taking snaps under center a few times a game. Work in more play action plays.

Over the last 7 games we're running the ball nearly 57% of the time. From shotgun. Every 10 plays, 6 of those the 4th most accurate QB in college football from last season does not throw, we hand off to the RB standing behind the QB - 6 or 7 yards off the line.

Handing the ball off, as much as they are doing, we start every down in a -4 to -7 yard hole. We get gobbled up immediately from tough defenses. Recently, they've worked in these delayed hand-offs hoping a hole will open up. It doesn't. -1 yard and a cloud of dust.
Last Edited: 10/25/2023 1:44:54 PM by M.D.W.S.T
BryanHall
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Posted: 10/25/2023 5:44 PM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
Bring your rain gear Saturday. Forecast getting more ominous by the day.
Gotta think that bad weather helps the bad guys more. I expect them to be more run-oriented with Gabbert out.
Rain always makes me nervous, but considering we operate entirely from the shotgun... tough combo.

Would love to see them mix in taking snaps under center a few times a game. Work in more play action plays.

Over the last 7 games we're running the ball nearly 57% of the time. From shotgun. Every 10 plays, 6 of those the 4th most accurate QB in college football from last season does not throw, we hand off to the RB standing behind the QB - 6 or 7 yards off the line.

Handing the ball off, as much as they are doing, we start every down in a -4 to -7 yard hole. We get gobbled up immediately from tough defenses. Recently, they've worked in these delayed hand-offs hoping a hole will open up. It doesn't. -1 yard and a cloud of dust.
I don't know if I have a problem with the system. It worked pretty well last year and in the past. However, we now have a QB that can't run the option and line that doesn't seem to be as effective. Nolan McCormick and Jake Neatherton's numbers last year are better than Allison has this year. The offense doesn't seem to fit Kurtis all that well anyway, but particularly now since he doesn't seems likely to keep the ball on the option.
thehawg27
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Posted: 10/25/2023 6:24 PM
Kurtis's inability or unwillingness to run the ball is the greatest factor to the average production of this offense. When he took off a couple times against WMU not only was it wide open but it appeared to open the space for the other 2 RBs in this offense.

As much as I was fearful of him being reinjured at the beginning of the year, I'm not sure a MAC title is obtainable without the use of his legs.
Athens
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Posted: 10/25/2023 9:31 PM
MiamiRespectfulFan wrote:expand_more
Did you watch the second half of our last game? By far, really by far, we have the best MAC defense. You folks will score less than 11 points, mark my words. My prediction: We win 12 to 10. Our less-than-useful QB will do enough to bring the ball close enough for field goals. Our BEST-IN-THE-COUNTRY kicker won't miss a single one. Mark my words.
Ohio defense can score too.
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Last Edited: 10/25/2023 9:32:22 PM by Athens
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 10/25/2023 9:47 PM

 

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M.D.W.S.T
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Posted: 10/26/2023 1:07 PM
MiamiRespectfulFan wrote:expand_more
Did you watch the second half of our last game? By far, really by far, we have the best MAC defense. .
C+ trolling

Miami isn't - in any category - best in the MAC. Let alone, "by far".

Miami YPG: #4 in the MAC

OU YPG: #5... in the COUNTRY.
OU PPG: #6... in the COUNTRY.

Anyway... here are the rest of Miami's rankings in the MAC, none are "by far, really by far, the best":

Pass YPG: #7
Rush YPG: #4
PPG: #2
Last Edited: 10/26/2023 1:09:04 PM by M.D.W.S.T
L.C.
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Posted: 10/26/2023 3:23 PM
Comparing the teams, using MAC-game only stats:
https://getsomemaction.com/stats.aspx?path=football&year=...
In this case, MAC-only stats provide an especially good comparison, as Ohio and Miami have played nearly identical schedules. Both have played Kent, BG, and WMU. The only difference is that Ohio played NIU, while Miami played Toledo, but those teams are very competitive.

Rushing Defense: Ohio #1 105.0, Miami #2 106.0
Rushing Defense, yards per carry: Miami #1 3.0, Ohio #5 3.7
Pass Defense: Miami #1 134.5, Ohio #7 171.3
Pass Defense, yards/attempt: Miami #1 (tie) 4.8, Ohio #4 (tie) 5.9
Total Yards: Miami #1 240.5, Ohio #3 276.3
Total Defense, yards/play: Miami #1 3.8, Ohio #4 (tie) 4.8
Points allowed: Miami #1 11.3, Ohio #3 16.0

Both defenses are very good against the run, but so far, Miami is slightly better against the pass, and thus gives up less total yards and points. Next, the offenses:

Rushing Offense: Ohio #6 143.3, Miami #9 112.8
Rushing offense, yards per play: Ohio #5 4.2, Miami #9 3.2
Passing Offense: Ohio #1 233.8, Miami #5 202.8
Passing offense, yards/play: Ohio Ohio #3 7.4, Miami #4 7.2
Total Offense: Ohio #4 377, Miami #6 315.5
Total Offense, yards/play: Ohio #3 5.7, Miami #6 5.0
Points scored: Ohio #3 28.3, Miami #5 25.3

Ohio has the better offense in all regards, and that is with Gabbert.

Looking at other areas, Miami has the better FG kicker, and also punter. In summary, Miami will probably win the special teams, Ohio has the better offense, and the defenses are pretty equal. The stage is set for a very competitive game.

For those who want to compare scores:
Versus Kent: Ohio wins 42-17 (+25); Miami wins 23-3 (+22)
Versus BG: Ohio wins 38-7 (+31); Miami wins 27-0 (+27)
Versus WMU: Ohio wins 20-17 (+3), Miami wins 34-21 (+13)
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
Last Edited: 10/26/2023 6:39:35 PM by L.C.
Pete Chouteau
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Posted: 10/26/2023 4:35 PM
Don't forget:

https://awfulannouncing.com/ncaa/miami-ohio-coach-chuck-m...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74AY5NY0Ru8&t=510s

*oh by the way this backdrop in the 2018 press conference is the same backdrop Chuck stood in front of for remarks on Tuesday. Which is fine except Pepsi changed the logo this summer.
Last Edited: 10/26/2023 4:44:01 PM by Pete Chouteau
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 10/26/2023 5:09 PM

 

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Ted Thompson
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Posted: 10/26/2023 7:59 PM

 

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BillyTheCat
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Posted: 10/27/2023 6:11 AM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Comparing the teams, using MAC-game only stats:
https://getsomemaction.com/stats.aspx?path=football&year=...
In this case, MAC-only stats provide an especially good comparison, as Ohio and Miami have played nearly identical schedules. Both have played Kent, BG, and WMU. The only difference is that Ohio played NIU, while Miami played Toledo, but those teams are very competitive.

Rushing Defense: Ohio #1 105.0, Miami #2 106.0
Rushing Defense, yards per carry: Miami #1 3.0, Ohio #5 3.7
Pass Defense: Miami #1 134.5, Ohio #7 171.3
Pass Defense, yards/attempt: Miami #1 (tie) 4.8, Ohio #4 (tie) 5.9
Total Yards: Miami #1 240.5, Ohio #3 276.3
Total Defense, yards/play: Miami #1 3.8, Ohio #4 (tie) 4.8
Points allowed: Miami #1 11.3, Ohio #3 16.0

Both defenses are very good against the run, but so far, Miami is slightly better against the pass, and thus gives up less total yards and points. Next, the offenses:

Rushing Offense: Ohio #6 143.3, Miami #9 112.8
Rushing offense, yards per play: Ohio #5 4.2, Miami #9 3.2
Passing Offense: Ohio #1 233.8, Miami #5 202.8
Passing offense, yards/play: Ohio Ohio #3 7.4, Miami #4 7.2
Total Offense: Ohio #4 377, Miami #6 315.5
Total Offense, yards/play: Ohio #3 5.7, Miami #6 5.0
Points scored: Ohio #3 28.3, Miami #5 25.3

Ohio has the better offense in all regards, and that is with Gabbert.

Looking at other areas, Miami has the better FG kicker, and also punter. In summary, Miami will probably win the special teams, Ohio has the better offense, and the defenses are pretty equal. The stage is set for a very competitive game.

For those who want to compare scores:
Versus Kent: Ohio wins 42-17 (+25); Miami wins 23-3 (+22)
Versus BG: Ohio wins 38-7 (+31); Miami wins 27-0 (+27)
Versus WMU: Ohio wins 20-17 (+3), Miami wins 34-21 (+13)
Why you trying to bring stats, I've got 200 post on 30 threads on how bad the OHIO offense is, who needs stats?
L.C.
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Posted: 10/27/2023 7:53 AM
BillyTheCat wrote:expand_more
Why you trying to bring stats, I've got 200 post on 30 threads on how bad the OHIO offense is, who needs stats?

;)
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
Kevin Finnegan
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Posted: 10/27/2023 10:47 AM
Can't seem to figure out how Vegas sees us as 7.5 point favorites. Not surprised to see us as the favorites, especially with Gabbert's injury, but that's a big number. I'd be shocked if we were able to cover.
Ted Thompson
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Posted: 10/27/2023 4:48 PM

 

Follow Ohio Football recruiting on the BobcatAttack.com football recruiting database.

ytownbobcat
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Posted: 10/27/2023 5:34 PM
Not sure if this is mentioned elsewhere but, our special teams has had some problem with defending our kick offs. Two big returns last week that both resulted in great field position for WMU and TD's.

I assume we can kick it out of the end zone and eliminate opponents return.
randy
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Posted: 10/27/2023 8:03 PM
Thanks for sharing that last "video post" Ted. It just my juices flowing. I will yell for you tomorrow Pataskala! Hopefully you can watch it. I know this is message board and not "rooting board " which I usually do. I really appreciate all the stats, however I have been around long enough that IMO the coaches, teams and the energy and mental preparation of the combined, are just as important.
Alan Swank
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Posted: 10/28/2023 9:56 AM
68 with a 50/50 chance of light rain at kickoff. Just a typical gray late October day in Athens.
M.D.W.S.T
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Posted: 10/28/2023 12:41 PM
Kevin Finnegan wrote:expand_more
Can't seem to figure out how Vegas sees us as 7.5 point favorites. Not surprised to see us as the favorites, especially with Gabbert's injury, but that's a big number. I'd be shocked if we were able to cover.
Another game where Vegas hopes the offense is going to show up.

Me too. Me too.
Pataskala
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Posted: 10/28/2023 3:07 PM
M.D.W.S.T wrote:expand_more
Can't seem to figure out how Vegas sees us as 7.5 point favorites. Not surprised to see us as the favorites, especially with Gabbert's injury, but that's a big number. I'd be shocked if we were able to cover.
Another game where Vegas hopes the offense is going to show up.

Me too. Me too.
The over/under is only 39, so that would the score something like 23-16. Pretty typical for our offense this season.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

Bobcats1212
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Posted: 10/28/2023 3:41 PM
FINALLY THROWING THE BALL
M.D.W.S.T
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Posted: 10/28/2023 4:21 PM
I thought the only possible way we lose this game is turnovers. Sure enough...

Kurtis has to throw that away or take the sack. Trying to tuck it and take off in the rain... :(
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