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Topic: Ohio will end up the season:
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L.C.
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Posted: 11/11/2022 6:22 PM
Let's see how high expectations are now. Possible records with Ohio failing to win the East include:
7-6 Lose out
8-5 Beat Ball State with BG beating Toledo, lose bowl
9-4 Same as above, but with bowl win

All of the below assume that Ohio wins the East, which means they win at least one more reg season game:
8-6 win only 1 of 2 reg season games, lose the MACC and the bowl
9-5 lose one reg season game, and either MACC or bowl, or win both reg season games, then lose MACC and bowl
10-4 Lose any one game left
11-3 win out
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Athens
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Posted: 11/11/2022 8:14 PM
The biggest question is who will be the bowl opponent. Ohio wins the MACC I'd expect a push for someone in the range of Boise State or Coastal Carolina. If Ohio doesn't win the MACC it could be an easy bowl opponent. There is a couple of different ways to get to 9 or 10 wins. 8 would be going 1-2 or 1-3 down the stretch. Tracking toward 9 or 10 wins at the moment with a moderate amount of success.
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OUcats82
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Posted: 11/12/2022 7:56 AM
Campus Flow wrote:expand_more
The biggest question is who will be the bowl opponent. Ohio wins the MACC I'd expect a push for someone in the range of Boise State or Coastal Carolina. If Ohio doesn't win the MACC it could be an easy bowl opponent. There is a couple of different ways to get to 9 or 10 wins. 8 would be going 1-2 or 1-3 down the stretch. Tracking toward 9 or 10 wins at the moment with a moderate amount of success.
Does the MAC champ automatically go to a particular bowl?
Ohio-The State University

L.C.
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Posted: 11/12/2022 12:55 PM
Interestingly, every single voter so far expects Ohio to be the in the MAC Championship game. The most popular answer, by far, is 10-4, expecting Ohio to drop some game along the way. A loss in any of the four games is possible to still lead to 10-4:

1. Lose to Ball State, then beat BG, Toledo, and win the Bowl
2. Beat Ball State, [Toledo must beat BG], lose to BG, win the MACC and Bowl
3. Beat Ball State and BG, lose to Toledo, then win the bowl
4. Beat Ball State, BG, and Toledo, then lose the bowl.
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OhioCatFan
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Posted: 11/12/2022 5:58 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Interestingly, every single voter so far expects Ohio to be the in the MAC Championship game. The most popular answer, by far, is 10-4, expecting Ohio to drop some game along the way. A loss in any of the four games is possible to still lead to 10-4:

1. Lose to Ball State, then beat BG, Toledo, and win the Bowl
2. Beat Ball State, [Toledo must beat BG], lose to BG, win the MACC and Bowl
3. Beat Ball State and BG, lose to Toledo, then win the bowl
4. Beat Ball State, BG, and Toledo, then lose the bowl.
My vote was based guess #4.
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ExCat21
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Posted: 11/13/2022 9:58 AM
L.C.
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Posted: 11/13/2022 10:47 AM
ExCat21 wrote:expand_more

They don't mention at all the possibility that Ohio beats Ball State, and BG loses to Toledo, which clinches it for Ohio.

OhioCatFan wrote:expand_more
Interestingly, every single voter so far expects Ohio to be the in the MAC Championship game. The most popular answer, by far, is 10-4, expecting Ohio to drop some game along the way. A loss in any of the four games is possible to still lead to 10-4:

1. Lose to Ball State, then beat BG, Toledo, and win the Bowl
2. Beat Ball State, [Toledo must beat BG], lose to BG, win the MACC and Bowl
3. Beat Ball State and BG, lose to Toledo, then win the bowl
4. Beat Ball State, BG, and Toledo, then lose the bowl.
My vote was based guess #4.

I also voted for 10-4. I don't think it will be scenario 1 or 2, but either of 3 or 4 are possible. I hope that those who voted for 11-3 are correct, but if 10-4 is the right number, I would vastly prefer scenario 4 to scenario 3.

For now, though, I want to see Ohio take care of Ball State, and hopefully clinch the East with a loss by BG to Toledo.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
Athens
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Posted: 11/13/2022 10:48 AM
OUcats82 wrote:expand_more
The biggest question is who will be the bowl opponent. Ohio wins the MACC I'd expect a push for someone in the range of Boise State or Coastal Carolina. If Ohio doesn't win the MACC it could be an easy bowl opponent. There is a couple of different ways to get to 9 or 10 wins. 8 would be going 1-2 or 1-3 down the stretch. Tracking toward 9 or 10 wins at the moment with a moderate amount of success.
Does the MAC champ automatically go to a particular bowl?
They shop the MAC champ around I believe. It could be a good odd man out opponent that didn't win its conference. Tulane or South Alabama come to mind. I doubt UC would play Ohio in a bowl.

Coastal Carolina 9-1
Troy 8-2
South Alabama 8-2
Cincinnati 8-2
Tulane 8-2
UTSA 8-2
Boise St 7-3
Wyoming 7-3

The MAC might not have enough bowl eligible teams this year. There are 4 must fill bowls for the MAC that are not shared with any other conference.

– Bahamas Bowl vs Conference USA (Dec 16)
– Famous Idaho Potato Bowl vs Mountain West (Dec. 20)
– Barstool Arizona Bowl vs Mountain West (Dec. 30)
– Quick Lane Bowl vs Big Ten (Dec. 26)

MAC only has 3 bowl eligible teams with Ohio, UT and EMU. Buffalo is all but a lock for the 4th with Akron on schedule. BG has to play UT and Ohio so could finish 5-7. Ball St has to play Ohio and Miami. It could be then Detroit to play a P5 opponent for Ohio.
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L.C.
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Posted: 11/13/2022 12:04 PM
Campus Flow wrote:expand_more
...
The MAC might not have enough bowl eligible teams this year.

Odds of MAC teams becoming bowl eligible, per TeamRankings:
Ohio, EMU, Toledo all 100%
Buffalo 94%
Ball State 67%
CMU 45%
Kent 37%
BG 28%
Miami 23%
Akron, NIU, WMU all 0%

So, the MAC will have about 6 bowl eligible teams when it is all done.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
Athens
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Posted: 11/13/2022 6:39 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
...
The MAC might not have enough bowl eligible teams this year.

Odds of MAC teams becoming bowl eligible, per TeamRankings:
Ohio, EMU, Toledo all 100%
Buffalo 94%
Ball State 67%
CMU 45%
Kent 37%
BG 28%
Miami 23%
Akron, NIU, WMU all 0%

So, the MAC will have about 6 bowl eligible teams when it is all done.
I'm not totally sure because look at who they are playing.

Buffalo 5-5 (Akron, Kent St)
Ball St 5-5 (Ohio, @Miami)
BGSU 5-5 (@Toledo, @Ohio)
Miami 4-6 (@NIU, Ball St)
Kent 4-6 (EMU, @Buffalo)
CMU 4-6 (WMU, @EMU)

Assume Ohio and Buffalo win out. Ball St would have to get a road win against Miami to hit 6 wins. BG a road win at Toledo. Miami could drop a game against NIU. Kent would be out if Buffalo wins out. CMU has two tough rivalry games which includes EMU on the road.
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gedunkman
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Posted: 11/14/2022 1:00 AM
Interesting poll. I voted 11-3. Our guys seem on a roll. I've watched nearly every game via one of ESPNs and one in person. This team has character and a no quit attitude. The WRs, RBs and QB are performing way above my expectations. The defense is improving. The other factor that influenced my vote is that this appears to be the weakest overall MAC in many years. Go Bobcats!
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Posted: 11/15/2022 9:52 AM
gedunkman wrote:expand_more
Interesting poll. I voted 11-3. Our guys seem on a roll. I've watched nearly every game via one of ESPNs and one in person. This team has character and a no quit attitude. The WRs, RBs and QB are performing way above my expectations. The defense is improving. The other factor that influenced my vote is that this appears to be the weakest overall MAC in many years. Go Bobcats!
Me too. They are on a roll and are defying the earlier expectations of mediocrity…or worse. Prove us all wrong, boys.
L.C.
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Posted: 11/15/2022 12:02 PM
Comparing the poll to the odds computed using TeamRankings expected win percentages, the pessimists are in about the correct proportions, but the number of Green Kool-Aid drinkers has become large:

7-6 - one way to do this, lose out
Poll result 2/41, 5%, Computed percentage 5%

8-5 - two ways, Beat Ball State/BG beats Toledo, or lose both reg games+win bowl
Poll 1/41-2%, computed 4%

9-4 - one way, Beat BSU+BG beats Toledo, lose to BG, Win bowl
Poll 0%, computed 0.5%

8-6 two ways: lose all but BG, Beat Ball+BG loses to Toledo, then lose out
Poll 2%, computed 18%

9-5 five ways:
1. beat BSU+BG, lose bowl and MACC
2. Beat Ball, Toledo beats BG, lose to BG, win MACC, lose bowl
3. Beat Ball, Toledo beats BG, lose to BG, lose MACC, win bowl
4. Lose BSU, beat BG, win MACC, lose bowl
5. Lose BSU, beat BG, lose MACC, win bowl
Poll 22%, computed 39%

10-4 four ways, lose any one game, except that if loss is to BG, Toledo must beat BG
Poll 44%, Computed 27%

11-3 Win all games
Poll 24%, computed 6%

Note: Since TeamRankings doesn't give a percentage for the bowl yet, I used Ohio's historical record of 5/13.

So, 8-6 and 9-5 are both under-represented, while 10-4 and 11-3 are over-represented. Since I only voted 10-4, I plan to stop by the grocery this afternoon and pick up some green kool-aid. Yummy.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
Athens
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Posted: 11/15/2022 12:17 PM
I'm surprised the chances of winning only 8 are as high as 22% when you combine both the 8-5 and 8-6 scenario. That would be 1-2 or 1-3 down the stretch against less offensively proficient teams. Though if the Cats win tonight the chances of only bagging 9 wins down the stretch at that point would be a 1-1 or 1-2 finish so 9 in my estimation would continue to be a high probability even after picking up win 8 tonight in Muncie since there aren't many games remaining.
Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Fiami @ Peden with 25,086 fans
2023 10-7 near shutout of Iowa State @ Solich Field
2025 17-10 defeat of WVU @ Peden in front of 26,740
Last Edited: 11/15/2022 12:19:38 PM by Athens
Victory
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Posted: 11/15/2022 1:01 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
Comparing the poll to the odds computed using TeamRankings expected win percentages, the pessimists are in about the correct proportions, but the number of Green Kool-Aid drinkers has become large:

7-6 - one way to do this, lose out
Poll result 2/41, 5%, Computed percentage 5%

8-5 - two ways, Beat Ball State/BG beats Toledo, or lose both reg games+win bowl
Poll 1/41-2%, computed 4%

9-4 - one way, Beat BSU+BG beats Toledo, lose to BG, Win bowl
Poll 0%, computed 0.5%

8-6 two ways: lose all but BG, Beat Ball+BG loses to Toledo, then lose out
Poll 2%, computed 18%

9-5 five ways:
1. beat BSU+BG, lose bowl and MACC
2. Beat Ball, Toledo beats BG, lose to BG, win MACC, lose bowl
3. Beat Ball, Toledo beats BG, lose to BG, lose MACC, win bowl
4. Lose BSU, beat BG, win MACC, lose bowl
5. Lose BSU, beat BG, lose MACC, win bowl
Poll 22%, computed 39%

10-4 four ways, lose any one game, except that if loss is to BG, Toledo must beat BG
Poll 44%, Computed 27%

11-3 Win all games
Poll 24%, computed 6%

Note: Since TeamRankings doesn't give a percentage for the bowl yet, I used Ohio's historical record of 5/13.

So, 8-6 and 9-5 are both under-represented, while 10-4 and 11-3 are over-represented. Since I only voted 10-4, I plan to stop by the grocery this afternoon and pick up some green kool-aid. Yummy.
That's exactly what I thought when I saw this poll. There are so many more ways to go 9-5 and 10-4 than the other options that one of those has to be the most realistic answer. If you are high on OUr chances and think we should be an obvious favorite in every game that still doesn't mean 11-3 is more likely than 10-4. We'd have to be a considered a pretty massive favorite for that to be the case.
Kevin Finnegan
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Posted: 11/15/2022 3:17 PM
Yeah, I feel more comfortable picking the three possible upcoming games, since we know who those are. We know we have @ Ball State, vs. BGSU, and then a potential MACC game vs. Toledo. I think we have a good shot at running the table, with tonight's game being the one that concerns me the most. I think the road atmosphere and possible weather complications are what make me most worried.
L.C.
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Posted: 11/15/2022 5:36 PM
Campus Flow wrote:expand_more
I'm surprised the chances of winning only 8 are as high as 22% when you combine both the 8-5 and 8-6 scenario. That would be 1-2 or 1-3 down the stretch against less offensively proficient teams. Though if the Cats win tonight the chances of only bagging 9 wins down the stretch at that point would be a 1-1 or 1-2 finish so 9 in my estimation would continue to be a high probability even after picking up win 8 tonight in Muncie since there aren't many games remaining.

The reason is because Ohio is essentially a coin flip against BSU, but a clear favorite against BG, and a clear underdog against Toledo, and probably in the bowl. The possibility of losing to Ball State, Toledo, and the bowl is not low, except in the minds of fans.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
Athens
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Posted: 11/15/2022 8:07 PM
L.C. wrote:expand_more
I'm surprised the chances of winning only 8 are as high as 22% when you combine both the 8-5 and 8-6 scenario. That would be 1-2 or 1-3 down the stretch against less offensively proficient teams. Though if the Cats win tonight the chances of only bagging 9 wins down the stretch at that point would be a 1-1 or 1-2 finish so 9 in my estimation would continue to be a high probability even after picking up win 8 tonight in Muncie since there aren't many games remaining.

The reason is because Ohio is essentially a coin flip against BSU, but a clear favorite against BG, and a clear underdog against Toledo, and probably in the bowl. The possibility of losing to Ball State, Toledo, and the bowl is not low, except in the minds of fans.
Toledo is no better than a coin flip.
Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Fiami @ Peden with 25,086 fans
2023 10-7 near shutout of Iowa State @ Solich Field
2025 17-10 defeat of WVU @ Peden in front of 26,740
Athens
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Posted: 11/16/2022 12:02 AM
Throw out the 7-6 or 8-6 scenarios. The worst Ohio can now do is 8-5. But now with the QB situation all bets are off. Rourke should be back for the bowl game. Ohio at this point is going to have one of the best records in the MAC even if they drop against BG.
Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Fiami @ Peden with 25,086 fans
2023 10-7 near shutout of Iowa State @ Solich Field
2025 17-10 defeat of WVU @ Peden in front of 26,740
L.C.
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Posted: 11/17/2022 9:15 AM
Campus Flow wrote:expand_more
...
The MAC might not have enough bowl eligible teams this year.

Odds of MAC teams becoming bowl eligible, per TeamRankings:
Ohio, EMU, Toledo all 100%
Buffalo 94%
Ball State 67%
CMU 45%
Kent 37%
BG 28%
Miami 23%
Akron, NIU, WMU all 0%

So, the MAC will have about 6 bowl eligible teams when it is all done.
I'm not totally sure because look at who they are playing.

Buffalo 5-5 (Akron, Kent St)
Ball St 5-5 (Ohio, @Miami)
BGSU 5-5 (@Toledo, @Ohio)
Miami 4-6 (@NIU, Ball St)
Kent 4-6 (EMU, @Buffalo)
CMU 4-6 (WMU, @EMU)

Assume Ohio and Buffalo win out. Ball St would have to get a road win against Miami to hit 6 wins. BG a road win at Toledo. Miami could drop a game against NIU. Kent would be out if Buffalo wins out. CMU has two tough rivalry games which includes EMU on the road.

Six bowl eligible teams appears to be where the MAC will end up. With BG joining the group, four are in now. They are certain to get a fifth because the winner of the Miami-Ball State game will be eligible. Buffalo is a virtual lock to be the sixth team, needing only to beat either Akron or Kent.

Back to the poll, I have to wonder if the results would change after Kurtis' injury. I may resubmit it, once more information is available.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
bobcatsquared
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Posted: 11/17/2022 4:49 PM
What if UB has its game v. Akron postponed this Saturday, then lose v. Kent, and the Akron game is not rescheduled? They finish 5-6 and are ineligible for a bowl? Or is an exception made?
Victory
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Posted: 11/17/2022 5:01 PM
bobcatsquared wrote:expand_more
What if UB has its game v. Akron postponed this Saturday, then lose v. Kent, and the Akron game is not rescheduled? They finish 5-6 and are ineligible for a bowl? Or is an exception made?
If 6-7 teams are ineligible I'd expect that they would fall in with those other categories that need there to be less than 82 eligible teams. Even if they are ruled fully eligible I suspect that if there are 83 teams Buffalo end up the team sitting home.

I am more concerned as to what happens if the game gets cancelled, they beat Kent, and BG beats us. They MAC's history with games cancelled from COVID leads me to believe that they would rule that Buffalo wins this tiebreaker even though they aren't tied with the other two teams that finished 1st.
Last Edited: 11/17/2022 5:01:22 PM by Victory
mf279801
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Posted: 11/17/2022 9:05 PM
Victory wrote:expand_more
What if UB has its game v. Akron postponed this Saturday, then lose v. Kent, and the Akron game is not rescheduled? They finish 5-6 and are ineligible for a bowl? Or is an exception made?
If 6-7 teams are ineligible I'd expect that they would fall in with those other categories that need there to be less than 82 eligible teams. Even if they are ruled fully eligible I suspect that if there are 83 teams Buffalo end up the team sitting home.

I am more concerned as to what happens if the game gets cancelled, they beat Kent, and BG beats us. They MAC's history with games cancelled from COVID leads me to believe that they would rule that Buffalo wins this tiebreaker even though they aren't tied with the other two teams that finished 1st.
"The divisional championship shall be decided on conference winning percentage" (https://getsomemaction.com/news/2007/8/6/FB_127434.aspx?p... )

5-2 Buffalo = 71.4%
6-2 BG = 75%
6-2 OHIO = 75%

BG holds the tiebreaker over OHIO
L.C.
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Posted: 12/6/2022 3:39 PM
It turns out that Ohio fans were pretty realistic in this poll. The 7 most pessimistic responses have been eliminated, as have the 10 most optimistic. We are left with the two responses in the middle, the 19 who picked Ohio 10-4, and the 10 who picked Ohio 9-5. With Ohio slightly favored, that seems to be about dead on.
“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus
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