After being rocked by the pandemic…

Where does the higher ed sector stand?

Overall, it’s regained fairly solid footing, after two years of COVID chaos and strained budgets.

But there’s still lots of uncertainty ahead.

HIGHER ED

When it comes to the finances of schools…

Most college presidents express confidence that their institution will be stable for the next five to 10 years, according to a recent national survey.

Why? Most campuses are back to normal.

Fund-raising and endowments are doing well.

Foreign enrollment has snapped back a lot.

Staffing head counts are close to 2019 levels.

But that confidence overlooks big challenges.

Unprecedented federal aid is about to run dry. During the pandemic, a total of $76 billion was given, stabilizing schools as enrollment and revenues sank.

Demographics remain a huge headwind because the U.S. population of 18- to 24-year-olds will start to shrink by the mid-2020s. Note differences in regions, too. For example, slower population growth will be a bigger problem for schools in the Northeast than in the faster-growing South.

Total postsecondary enrollment is still 1 million students below 2019… 17.3 million undergrad and grad students in fall 2021, versus 18.2 million in 2019.

Recruiting foreign students remains difficult, with rising geopolitical tensions and more global competition. International students are key to many schools’ budgets, since they often pay full price. Expect stepped-up recruiting efforts in more countries.

Campuses face a slew of rising costs…labor, construction, mental health and academic services, insurance, utilities, etc. Pricier IT staff are a good example. After just 1%-2% price increases over the past year, bigger tuition hikes are likely.

High inflation dinging personal budgets means more people will forgo college because they can’t afford it. Meanwhile, strong demand for workers makes it easier to land a gig, especially as employers drop education requirements for some roles.

More high schoolers are questioning the value of college and going into debt, even though lifetime earnings still tend to go up as workers acquire more education.

And schools are increasingly worried by growing criticism of higher Where does all of that leave the nearly $700 billion-per-year industry?

There’s mounting pressure to change, including by embracing adaptations spurred by COVID, such as using digital tools adopted for emergency virtual learning. We expect more experimentation from traditional schools offering online programs to try to enroll both domestic and foreign students. Expect lower prices, though.

Schools that don’t address the many challenges face tougher times ahead. Expect the dust to settle come fall, when the post-pandemic outlook is more clear.

Interesting analysis. Thanks!

I’ve seen children of friends and clients recently either delay college of forego entirely. That will increase if costs are going to increase. State schools in PA are merging.

The university has to become more aggressive with student services and programming for what its charging families these days.

Its also a war of numbers too since the bigger enrollments help the bottom line in both revenue from those attending and in state matching money.

Economy I'm sure right now is a factor working against universities with an unemployment rate under 4% and a lot of employers will give tuition assistance for going back to graduate school and/or offering online programs 100% paid.

https://www.post-gazette.com/news/education/2022/04/22/in...

Indiana U of PA talks about the new reality they face.

Adapt or die

Didn't the state of PA, consolidate all those schools?

6 schools were part of the consolidation - 3 in east, 3 in west (there are about a dozen in the system). IUP was not part of it. California University of PA was. Yes, California University of PA and Indiana University of PA. Can get screwy even if you are from there.

Thank you. I remember reading all that, but the particulars escaped me. Interesting that IUP was not a part of that.

In the article the president of IUP said their enrollment went from 15,000 to somewhere in the 9k range. That has to hurt.