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Topic:  NBA looking to lower draft age

Topic:  NBA looking to lower draft age
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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  NBA looking to lower draft age
   Posted: 7/14/2022 11:08:43 AM 
Adam Silver says that putting the age at 18 is in play. I wouldn't be surprised if they lowered it to 17 if the player has graduated HS. This would make it more difficult for college teams to sign "elite" players out of HS but should maybe make for fewer one-and-dones. It might also have an impact on NILs as a tool for recruiting some HS players.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/adam-silver-in-favor-o... /


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CatsUp
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  Message Not Read  RE: NBA looking to lower draft age
   Posted: 7/14/2022 11:37:56 AM 
Pataskala wrote:
Adam Silver says that putting the age at 18 is in play. I wouldn't be surprised if they lowered it to 17 if the player has graduated HS. This would make it more difficult for college teams to sign "elite" players out of HS but should maybe make for fewer one-and-dones. It might also have an impact on NILs as a tool for recruiting some HS players.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/adam-silver-in-favor-o... /


With the direction college athletics are going, Iíd say do away with the pro drafts (football and basketball) altogether. Every player is all for themselves, at any age, as a free agent to the highest bidder. After all we are either for a completely free market in sports or we arenít. That way we can watch everything crash and burn as far as fan interest goes for many.
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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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  Message Not Read  RE: NBA looking to lower draft age
   Posted: 7/14/2022 12:02:15 PM 
CatsUp wrote:


With the direction college athletics are going, Iíd say do away with the pro drafts (football and basketball) altogether. Every player is all for themselves, at any age, as a free agent to the highest bidder. After all we are either for a completely free market in sports or we arenít. That way we can watch everything crash and burn as far as fan interest goes for many.


I actually think that would help with parity in the NBA. The salary cap and the notion of max contract ends up undervaluing certain stars.

If it was a free market, somebody like Giannis would be worth 70% of the cap instead of 25% of it, and talent would end up spread more thoroughly across the league.

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Jeff McKinney
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  Message Not Read  RE: NBA looking to lower draft age
   Posted: 7/14/2022 12:37:38 PM 
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:
CatsUp wrote:


With the direction college athletics are going, Iíd say do away with the pro drafts (football and basketball) altogether. Every player is all for themselves, at any age, as a free agent to the highest bidder. After all we are either for a completely free market in sports or we arenít. That way we can watch everything crash and burn as far as fan interest goes for many.


I actually think that would help with parity in the NBA. The salary cap and the notion of max contract ends up undervaluing certain stars.

If it was a free market, somebody like Giannis would be worth 70% of the cap instead of 25% of it, and talent would end up spread more thoroughly across the league.



Could you explain further?

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100%Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: NBA looking to lower draft age
   Posted: 7/14/2022 2:16:55 PM 
This probably won't be the popular opinion, but I don't like it. If you look at the list of NBA draftees out of high school, since 1995 (by my count on the Wikipedia list) there were 39 high schoolers drafted when it was possible to be drafted right out of high school. I'd argue that 21 of the players on that list were complete busts/failures. Some were role players that had decent careers. Very few are Lebron, Kobe, Kevin Garnett (obviously). From the team perspective, I can't fathom having to evaluate a player you're about to sink millions into based on high school and AAU competition. It's hard enough with a year in college. If high schoolers were eligible last year, Emoni Bates would have likely been a high first round pick...and he couldn't hack it at Memphis and is now at Eastern Michigan. I completely get that college isn't for every player. I'd like to see the G League become more of a player for the kids who don't want to go to college and want to play professionally. In recent years, the G League Ignite has had some high profile draftees who chose G league over college. Google tells me the Ignite contracts can pay up to $500,000. That's one heck of an option for a player that doesn't want to go to Kansas for a year. The player benefits financially and from coaching/competition at a higher level, and the teams benefit from a draft evaluation standpoint.

Just my $.02 worth.

Last Edited: 7/14/2022 2:18:18 PM by 100%Cat

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Andrew Ruck
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  Message Not Read  RE: NBA looking to lower draft age
   Posted: 7/15/2022 8:18:07 AM 
Go with the baseball policy. Either come right out of HS or go to college for a minimum of 3 years.


Andrew Ruck
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bornacatfan
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  Message Not Read  RE: NBA looking to lower draft age
   Posted: 7/15/2022 7:20:12 PM 
100%Cat wrote:
This probably won't be the popular opinion, but I don't like it. If you look at the list of NBA draftees out of high school, since 1995 (by my count on the Wikipedia list) there were 39 high schoolers drafted when it was possible to be drafted right out of high school. I'd argue that 21 of the players on that list were complete busts/failures. Some were role players that had decent careers. Very few are Lebron, Kobe, Kevin Garnett (obviously). From the team perspective, I can't fathom having to evaluate a player you're about to sink millions into based on high school and AAU competition. It's hard enough with a year in college. If high schoolers were eligible last year, Emoni Bates would have likely been a high first round pick...and he couldn't hack it at Memphis and is now at Eastern Michigan. I completely get that college isn't for every player. I'd like to see the G League become more of a player for the kids who don't want to go to college and want to play professionally. In recent years, the G League Ignite has had some high profile draftees who chose G league over college. Google tells me the Ignite contracts can pay up to $500,000. That's one heck of an option for a player that doesn't want to go to Kansas for a year. The player benefits financially and from coaching/competition at a higher level, and the teams benefit from a draft evaluation standpoint.

Just my $.02 worth.


The one and done came in just before Oden and Conley came out se we were following it and the challenges (those challenges exposed OJ Mayo and D1 Greyhounds for the cheating that they were playing overage from 5th grade on...). Personally, I was always against it. Let them go...if the fail....then it should be like anyone else in society. They fail and have to rethink things.

No one is trying to save Joe Average from going to work instead of college. No one told me to go to school and use my scholarship instead of staying in Chicago to work. It was the long way around but it was worth it in the end. SO why do we feel it is our duty to get them exposure by making them go to a school they do not want to be at anyway? Then we farcically have them attending classes and fold them into the APR which gets screwed when they do not finish spring semester. They have the G league or Europe or leagues around the world to hone their skills. If they make it ...hoorah! If not ....they are in the same boat the rest of us are when we make choices.

I am not sure why the G league is not wildly popular and "more of a player" but the NCAA continues to be THE showcase. At this point, money is driving everything and the joy of hoops is only seen in my eyes at the HS and lower levels. Best 4 bucks I spend is watching friday night rivalries or games at lower levels where kids are playing with joy and learning the game. I catch an NBA or G league game off and on but I am more happy watching FIBA or Amateurs playing the game. Just my view. Let em go. Let em succeed or fail. Quit fawning over what they are getting paid or who is undervalued or what owner is making too much money or where the money is going. This is taking the joy and excitement out of the game.



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Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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  Message Not Read  RE: NBA looking to lower draft age
   Posted: 7/17/2022 4:56:39 PM 
Jeff McKinney wrote:
Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame wrote:
CatsUp wrote:


With the direction college athletics are going, Iíd say do away with the pro drafts (football and basketball) altogether. Every player is all for themselves, at any age, as a free agent to the highest bidder. After all we are either for a completely free market in sports or we arenít. That way we can watch everything crash and burn as far as fan interest goes for many.


I actually think that would help with parity in the NBA. The salary cap and the notion of max contract ends up undervaluing certain stars.

If it was a free market, somebody like Giannis would be worth 70% of the cap instead of 25% of it, and talent would end up spread more thoroughly across the league.



Could you explain further?



Sure, with the caveat that I used to know the ins/outs of NBA cap math years back, but haven't paid that close attention since the last CBA was negotiated. So some specifics might be off.

But basically the NBA's salary cap creates a few different salary bands. The first is for rookies entering the league; their salaries are dictated and basically non-negotiable. It varies based on where you're drafted (Top 3, top 15, etc) but salaries are banded. That's also true as players progress in their careers; the max contract's defined in the sense that it's a fixed percentage of the salary cap. There are a few variations, and players can earn kickers and increases, but by and large max salaries are a fixed amount of the cap.

The result is that young players end up being a huge bargain because they're on a fixed rate contract. For instance, next year there are two guys in the draft that project to be very, very good. One's the French guy -- Victor Wembanyama -- and the other is Scoot Henderson. The number one pick's salary is about $10,000,000. On an open market, both Wembanyama and Henderson would get much larger salaries. They may even demand the max.

Luke Doncic only earned about 10,000,000 last year, for instance. His next raise is also dictated by structured increases and capped by a max. He'll end up signing a 5 year/$205 million dollar extension. And as crazy as this is, he's underpaid at $37 million. There are years in Bradley Beal's extension that will pay as much as $60 million, given his seniority. If a team could offer that, or more, to Doncic they would.

Because the top players' salaries are artificially kept low, that means teams who have a player of that caliber are getting a bargain and have more money to add other star players to the team. I think the NBA cap's at 150m next year. Capping Doncic's pay such that he only takes up 25% of available cap space makes "super teams" possible.

Last Edited: 7/18/2022 2:32:13 PM by Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame

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giacomo
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  Message Not Read  RE: NBA looking to lower draft age
   Posted: 7/18/2022 6:16:02 PM 
They will either succeed or fail like the rest of us. No one cares if a 17 or 18 year old works at Wendy's or the local grocery store. Why care if they go to the NBA or other league?

The choice for them is simple: wait to see if a kid is good enough after you scout them in college or minor league or overseas. Or take a shot at a younger kid who you think has the tools to make it.
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M.D.W.S.T
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  Message Not Read  RE: NBA looking to lower draft age
   Posted: 7/19/2022 1:43:04 PM 
Pataskala wrote:
Adam Silver says that putting the age at 18 is in play. I wouldn't be surprised if they lowered it to 17 if the player has graduated HS. This would make it more difficult for college teams to sign "elite" players out of HS but should maybe make for fewer one-and-dones. It might also have an impact on NILs as a tool for recruiting some HS players.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/adam-silver-in-favor-o... /


I honestly far prefer the G-League as a viable option. I really like what they've been doing building the Ignite team. I'd like to see that continue growing.
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