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Ohio Basketball

Topic: RE: NIT Bid

Topic: RE: NIT Bid

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GraffZ06
General User

Member Since: 1/5/2005
Location: Dayton, OH
Post Count: 1,396

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RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/13/2023 11:18:12 AM

Sighs.

Jeff McKinney
Moderator

Member Since: 11/12/2004
Post Count: 5,867

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RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/13/2023 12:09:56 PM

It says something about how the MAC is viewed when a team as good as Toledo can't get seeded high enough to host a game.

Victory
General User

Member Since: 3/10/2012
Post Count: 1,513

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RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/13/2023 12:18:33 PM

Bobcat Love wrote:

This thread is a perfect microcosm of our fan base.

Toledo is guaranteed a spot and Holtmann said he is not in favor of playing in the postseason due to injuries (though I assume that changes).

Uninformed and lacking knowledge. Plus we can add a Marshall Administrator as our President to our substandard resume. Fits like a glove.

Awful.

I guess I can count myself among the uniformed too. When I said tha Akron, Ohio, and Ball State would be able to continue if they wanted I was saying that believing that there was a 32 team Basketball Classic and that even if we weren't in the next 32 at this stage some people ahead of us would decline. I am usually one of the first people to know stuff like this being cancelled. I thought I read early in the year that the CBI and tBC were both happening. When did they announce this?

Bobcat Jerry
General User

Member Since: 5/3/2017
Post Count: 124

Status: Offline

RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/13/2023 12:39:18 PM

rpbobcat wrote:

GraffZ06 wrote:

I think that makes us favorites to make it to Madison Square Garden. Would be a cool experience to play in Michael Jordan's former home court.

Aren't the semi's and finals in Las Vegas ?
(Sarcasm ?)

So Toledo plays Michigan in the NIT first round. That sounds like strategic marketing to me!

Victory
General User

Member Since: 3/10/2012
Post Count: 1,513

Status: Offline

RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/13/2023 12:39:56 PM

Victory wrote:

Bobcat Love wrote:

OK, now that I look at the bottom teams in the CBI I understand. Certainly, we could have played if we wanted. There is no BC because basically everyone is turning down the CBI.

BillyTheCat
General User

Member Since: 10/6/2012
Post Count: 8,724

Status: Offline

RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/13/2023 12:46:40 PM

M.D.W.S.T wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

Seems like quite a few people are no longer interested in the CBI business model.

What IS the business model?

Michigan vs Detroit Mercy was a GIFT for ticket sales and tv revenue (comparatively at least).

You pay to enter the tournament, just under $30K and that is not covering your expenses.

BillyTheCat
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Member Since: 10/6/2012
Post Count: 8,724

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RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/13/2023 12:49:24 PM

Victory wrote:

Bobcat Love wrote:

OK, now that I look at the bottom teams in the CBI I understand. Certainly, we could have played if we wanted. There is no BC because basically everyone is turning down the CBI.

Exactly, schools are no longer enticed by this type of deal.

BillyTheCat
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Member Since: 10/6/2012
Post Count: 8,724

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RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/13/2023 12:52:09 PM

Bobcat Jerry wrote:

rpbobcat wrote:

GraffZ06 wrote:

I think that makes us favorites to make it to Madison Square Garden. Would be a cool experience to play in Michael Jordan's former home court.

Aren't the semi's and finals in Las Vegas ?
(Sarcasm ?)

So Toledo plays Michigan in the NIT first round. That sounds like strategic marketing to me!

Daytona Beach Florida this year

OU_Country
General User

Member Since: 12/6/2005
Location: On the road between Athens and Madison County
Post Count: 8,238

Status: Offline

RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/13/2023 1:21:55 PM

Victory wrote:

greencat wrote:

Sometimes post-season invitations are not based on who is most deserving.

Miss. St. vs Pitt in a play-in game? Vandy beat both of them. And beat UK twice in 2 weeks. And swept Florida. Hung 70 on Arky in one half... etc etc...

They also lost 14 games. IMO, this should be about to whom you have lost just as much as who have to beaten. They lost to a lot of teams. My math says the average bubble team would have only lost 12 against that schedule.

Totally agree. The focus on who you've beaten somehow seems to hide that who you've lost to, or worse how MANY losses you have.

At the end of it all, the issue is pretty simple: The NET now rewards Q1 + Q2 results. 75-80% of the D1 teams in the country can't even get the chance to schedule a Q1 game. Seems fair to me.

OU_Country
General User

Member Since: 12/6/2005
Location: On the road between Athens and Madison County
Post Count: 8,238

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RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/13/2023 1:23:43 PM

BillyTheCat wrote:

Bobcat Jerry wrote:

rpbobcat wrote:

GraffZ06 wrote:

I think that makes us favorites to make it to Madison Square Garden. Would be a cool experience to play in Michael Jordan's former home court.

Aren't the semi's and finals in Las Vegas ?
(Sarcasm ?)

So Toledo plays Michigan in the NIT first round. That sounds like strategic marketing to me!

Daytona Beach Florida this year

Actually I'm pretty sure it's in Las Vegas at Orleans Arena:

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2023-03-...

bobcat 2000
General User

Member Since: 1/21/2006
Post Count: 158

Status: Offline

RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/13/2023 1:56:44 PM

toledo will get their ass handed to them in the nit if they wind up playing florida

Ryan Carey
Site Programmer

Member Since: 11/11/2004
Post Count: 929

Status: Offline

RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/13/2023 2:18:15 PM

CBI is same place we played at last year, Daytona Beach.

Say what you want to about the pay to play, I think it makes for a nice destination trip for the team and fans. I see it being no different than the pre-season Bahama's trips, etc.

https://collegebasketballinvitational.com /

Played right across the street from the main hotel and beach, etc.

Ryan M. Carey
BBA 2001

OU_Country
General User

Member Since: 12/6/2005
Location: On the road between Athens and Madison County
Post Count: 8,238

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RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/13/2023 2:18:57 PM

I thought we were talking NIT, which is why I said Vegas.

greencat
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Member Since: 3/12/2005
Post Count: 1,428

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RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/13/2023 3:22:49 PM

Victory wrote:

greencat wrote:

"That" schedule = 6th toughest in the nation.

greencat
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RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/13/2023 3:23:47 PM

bobcat 2000 wrote:

toledo will get their ass handed to them in the nit if they wind up playing florida

Castleton is out for the season for UF.

Victory
General User

Member Since: 3/10/2012
Post Count: 1,513

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RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/13/2023 7:22:53 PM

greencat wrote:

Victory wrote:

greencat wrote:

"That" schedule = 6th toughest in the nation.

According to what metric? Almost all the rankings of it I see are around 30. That isn't very different form a lot of the other bubble teams.

This is what I did when I say 12 losses and to be fair to Vandy its really more like 12.5. Bubble teams should be ranked in the mid to high 40's because that's where the last at large bid is on the committees ranking of teams. A team on that Level is about 11 points better than the average NCAA division 1 team. You can take that and compare it to a predictive rating for the teams on Vandy's schedule, add or subtract about 3 from that difference for home field and read it off of a normal distribution with the mean at 0 and a standard deviation of about .09 and you get the winning chance of a typical bubble team in that game. Then add those chances up and you get the expected number of wins that the typical bubble team would have against Vandy's schedule.

If that makes sense to you try it. You'll see that difference we can up with form a typical computer power ranking between two teams with HFA added onn will be about the vegas line when they play That thing we read off the bell curve will be between the two money lines. It works. If you compare that sum of chances for bubble teams and look at a wins based rating system you'll find that it often compares to that and wins based rankings to a pretty good job of predicting at-larges. I'm not saying this without basis. Believe me, Vandy came up short on their win total with respect to what they should have by more than a game.

We don't have to rank teams just of their win/loss record. We can look at a how good we think they are as in who would be favored to beat who. Would Vandy be favored against the rest of the bubble? This is even worse for Vandy. I'd say a Vegas oddsmaker looks at Vanderbilt as about the 70th best team in the country. That isn't near the 45 ranking you'd expect. In fact, it is right about where Kent State and Toledo would be.

Now the thing that helps them, as you point out, is the committee overinflates the quality win count with respect to just simply looking at the value of that win loss record. I know that. I'm aware of that. But in my opinion it is unnecessary Voodoo designed to intentionally help high-majors. Your quality wins are already included with exactly how much weight they should have when we do that math on the win-loss record. But if you just start counting quality wins without the rest of that context then obviously a team that played more quality opponents will usually have more. I think it is done intentionally to screw teams that are not from high-major conferences. Consequently, if their only argument is their quality win count while even with those wins they still got too many losses in other games to have the record you'd expect while having a power ranking in the 70s then I don't feel bad for them at all.

Last Edited: 3/13/2023 8:00:42 PM by Victory

greencat
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Member Since: 3/12/2005
Post Count: 1,428

Status: Offline

RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/14/2023 1:19:03 AM

Vandy won 13 SEC games total after finishing 11-7 in the conference regular season yet the NCAA let in a team that was 8-10. VU finished in a tie for 4th, they finished 9th. 6 of their 8 wins came from unranked doormats Ole Miss (twice), South Carolina (twice) and LSU, the 12th, 13th, and 14th teams in the conference. Of VU's 11 wins regular season wins, they came from beating big dance teams Arkansas, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Auburn, and Tennessee. Then VU beat Kentucky again in the tournament WITHOUT Liam Robbins, the SEC defensive player of the year.

Team Rankings . com lists the following big dance teams BEHIND Vandy in SOS:
Miss. St.
Memphis
Virginia
Houston
Providence
USC
Miami
NC State
San Diego St.
St. Marys
Boise St.
Pitt
Utah State
VCU
Drake

VU got screwed, plain and simple. Then again, the NCAA still gave an automatic bid to the WAC even though their defending champs dropped basketball in the middle of the season and forfeited the remainer of it...and let in the only for-profit school in D-1 sports.

Last Edited: 3/14/2023 1:25:19 AM by greencat

GraffZ06
General User

Member Since: 1/5/2005
Location: Dayton, OH
Post Count: 1,396

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RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/14/2023 9:32:06 AM

bobcat 2000 wrote:

toledo will get their ass handed to them in the nit if they wind up playing florida

Not if we knock off Florida first. After we beat OSU. It could happen.

Victory
General User

Member Since: 3/10/2012
Post Count: 1,513

Status: Offline

RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/14/2023 9:32:52 AM

TeamRankings lists Vandy with a SOS of #44. Nothing special at all. Yes, thats better than some at-large candidates but its middle of the pack as I said. Those teams with lesser SOS have better records. If you expect to get in with 14 losses it is going to need to be better than that. It is uncommon to get an at-large with 14 losses. It did work for WVU this year who is usually around #5 in SOS. It didn't work for Rutgers either with similar SOS to Vandy.

Last Edited: 3/14/2023 9:35:01 AM by Victory

greencat
General User

Member Since: 3/12/2005
Post Count: 1,428

Status: Offline

RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/14/2023 9:43:30 AM

Rutgers finished the year losing 7 of their last ten games. VU finished strong.

Now, 6-7 combo forward Miles Stute from Vandy is in the portal. I think he shot 36% from three and can defend a number of positions, plus obviously academics would not be a problem. Boals should go after this kid. He's tough.

Alan Swank
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Member Since: 12/11/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 6,756

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RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/14/2023 12:52:59 PM

Ryan Carey wrote:

Have to disagree on that. At the beginning of every team's season there is hope. At the end, it's a matter of hopes realized or hopes dashed. Playing in a third rate pay to play tournament when the university union has turned down two contract offers, isn't only a sorry consolation prize but also bad form.

greencat
General User

Member Since: 3/12/2005
Post Count: 1,428

Status: Offline

RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/14/2023 2:10:41 PM

Alan Swank wrote:

Ryan Carey wrote:

Not surprised that MTSU paid to play in it. Remember last fall when Middle and Western were supposed to go to the MAC as a package deal for southern expansion but MTSU kept dragging their feet and blew it off? Yeah, them.

OhioCatFan
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 13,250

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RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/14/2023 2:16:24 PM

greencat wrote:

Alan Swank wrote:

Ryan Carey wrote:

They have the most delusional fan base. Many of them still think they will be the next pick of some prestige conference. They didn't know a good deal when they had it in hand.

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

greencat
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RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/14/2023 3:44:24 PM

OhioCatFan wrote:

greencat wrote:

Alan Swank wrote:

Ryan Carey wrote:

They have the most delusional fan base. Many of them still think they will be the next pick of some prestige conference. They didn't know a good deal when they had it in hand.

MTSU has a fanbase? Couldn't tell by the empty arena at their basketball games.

OhioCatFan
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 13,250

Status: Offline

RE: NIT Bid

Posted: 3/14/2023 3:47:50 PM

greencat wrote:

OhioCatFan wrote:

greencat wrote:

Alan Swank wrote:

Ryan Carey wrote:

They have the most delusional fan base. Many of them still think they will be the next pick of some prestige conference. They didn't know a good deal when they had it in hand.

MTSU has a fanbase? Couldn't tell by the empty arena at their basketball games.

I know that's what makes it so weird. All two dozen of their fans are delusional and seem to influence the administration. Maybe they are all big donors, or something.

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