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Topic: RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Topic: RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

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Victory
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Member Since: 3/10/2012
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/20/2024 5:08:24 PM

BillyTheCat wrote:

Victory wrote:

GraffZ06 wrote:

JSF wrote:

And the last thing a bad defensive team wants to do is increase possessions.

Bingo. Unless/until we figure out our defensive woes we need to play slower not faster. Limit possessions.

I have never understood how playing slower is supposed to help this. If we play slow it keeps the other teams score down but, all other things being equal, it keeps our score down exactly as much. If we are better at full court press than we are half court defense then there is reason to think it might help. I have no Idea if that's the case but the whole we give up a lot of points and playing faster would make that worse doesn't hold up. It is points per possession that matters here and not points because both teams get approximately the same number of possessions.

It's like high powered football passing attacks back in the '80s. How can you slow them down? Run the ball. Eat click when you are on offense. So maybe this strategy help against every type of offense if it keeps your defense rested or anything like that but as a means to win by keeping the other teams score down, after a decade or so, it was clear this was nonsense. You still have to keep the other team from scoring when they do have the ball equally as much no matter if your offense eats clock or not

Not sure the strategy of increasing the number of possessions is good for our defense.

Obviously, we'd give up more points but why is it necessarily true that we'd give up more points per possession on defense?

GraffZ06
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Location: Dayton, OH
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/20/2024 6:54:32 PM

This is not difficult. A team that scores 100 points a night might not be a great offensive team if it takes them 95 possessions to do it. Similarly a team that gives up 50 points a night might not be a great defensive team if they only allow 40 possessions per game.

It's the whole reason for tempo adjusted statistics - to measure the actual efficiency on a possession by possession basis.

Using those statistics, our defense is currently literally one of the worst in all of D1. Will we stay there? I hope not. But it's going to take using different personnel, different defensive philosophies or some guys taking it personally and making large strides on the defensive side of the ball. Something has to change drastically. Will we ever be a good/great defensive team? Probably not with this roster, but I'd take below average over where we are now.

If (and it's a big if) the defensive efficiency doesn't get better by those changes - then we're going to be forced to slow the game down and limit possessions. 1.5 pts/possession * 60 possessions = 90 pts. 1.5 pts/poss * 50 possessions = 75 pts. Efficiency the same, but you give yourself a better chance to win.

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/20/2024 7:26:03 PM

What I find odd about our defensive performance this far is that the personnel isn't massively different than last year.

Brown and Hunter were solid defensive players, but it's not like either was
Gary Payton.

Hopefully a healthy Reef -- who I think was our best perimeter defender last year -- helps slow the point of attack, and that at least a portion of this is unsustainable shooting by opponents and some flukiness.

Victory
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/20/2024 7:59:42 PM

GraffZ06 wrote:

If (and it's a big if) the defensive efficiency doesn't get better by those changes - then we're going to be forced to slow the game down and limit possessions. 1.5 pts/possession * 60 possessions = 90 pts. 1.5 pts/poss * 50 possessions = 75 pts. Efficiency the same, but you give yourself a better chance to win.

I don't follow. If our defensive and offensive efficiency is the same under both circumstances then we have almost exactly the same chance to win under both circumstances.

Yes, as I said, if we are legitimately a very bad team that is likely to be an underdog in every game then, yes, slowing the game down allows for more flukish outcomes. If our offense is considered good enough to overcome our defense and thus we are favored in half or more games, which I still think we will be, then slowing the game down will cost us slightly more points on offense that it saves on defense over the season and it isn't going to help, and likely hurt, on that point alone.

That's assuming that our defensive efficiency is the same under both circumstances. We might play better or worse defense in a fast paced game. I don't think we know. Sure, it is a safe assumption that we give up and score less points in a slow paced game but that isn't the same as helping our defense. People seem to be arguing that slowing the game sown actually helps improve our defense rather that just merely improving our points allowed per game and harming our points scored which, and maybe I'm still missing something, seems to be failing grade school math. Obviously, your math is correct but you have not done the math on how many points we are likely to score and if slowing the game down costs us more that 15 points per game.

Last Edited: 11/20/2024 8:14:03 PM by Victory

Andrew Ruck
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 8:23:50 AM

Ohio is 1.5 point favorites, another toss-up game...I believe our 3rd game that was close to a pick em for Vegas. That's great scheduling and what's best for us, I just would like to see us win one. To that point, Ohio is 0-4 against the spread this year.

Let's have a true right the ship game and make it a great week for Ohio athletics.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

FJC31
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 12:03:06 PM

Looks like no Reef again.

GraffZ06
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 12:11:18 PM

FJC31 wrote:

Looks like no Reef again.

Disappointing. Need his defense. Gonna have to outscore them.

Working so far to first media TO 14-9 Cats.

FormerMember
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 12:39:05 PM

Ohio is not a good team right now. They make too many mistakes and have been mediocre finishing at the rim. Clayton has been awful from 3 to the point he's hurting the team.

They should figure things out eventually but it's been ugly to open the year.

Last Edited: 11/21/2024 12:40:28 PM by FormerMember

FJC31
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 12:43:34 PM

I�m not saying AJC should abandon the 3, but it�s not falling for him right now. Pump fake and beat Mustafa off the dribble or post up the smaller defender.

On the flip side, it�d be nice to see Pav let it fly from 3.

This feels like a game we should run away with. Need to finish those close to the basket shots and hit the FT�s.

We�re now on Evans watch. I don�t understand his lack of PT.

bobcatsquared
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 12:45:21 PM

Evans coming in with 1:04 left In half after another off rebound by MTSU

bobcatsquared
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 12:48:17 PM

Discussion in a group text with Ohio alumn: what does OUr basketball team do well.

FormerMember
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 12:49:02 PM

Feels like a game Ohio should win. Played a mediocre first half and only trail 32-31. Regroup at the half and get the victory!

FJC31
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 12:49:04 PM

bobcatsquared wrote:

Discussion in a group text with Ohio alumn: what does OUr basketball team do well.

This has yet to be answered in 4.5 games.

El Gato Roberto
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Location: Buffalo Grove, IL
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 12:53:53 PM

This team is struggling. I can see the talent, but they haven�t quite gelled. I�m confident that they will figure it out. I�m choosing patience. OUohyeah!

Last Edited: 11/21/2024 12:55:03 PM by El Gato Roberto

"The name's Ohio University, but everybody calls me Ohio. Any of you guys call me Ohio U, and I'll kill you."

OU_Country
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 1:19:54 PM

FJC31 wrote:

bobcatsquared wrote:

Discussion in a group text with Ohio alumn: what does OUr basketball team do well.

This has yet to be answered in 4.5 games.

I disagree. There is one thing we know they do well: *Attempt* 3-point shots. 😉

shabamon
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Member Since: 11/17/2006
Location: Cincinnati
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 1:25:32 PM

I am so done with our little guards thinking they are Leon Williams on the block and throwing up off balance shots the go nowhere.

I am so done with biting on every shot fake.

I am so done with the referee in the lead position calling fouls on our guys in legal guarding position standing still as a statue.

shabamon
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 1:38:12 PM

Do we have a quasi student section there?

FJC31
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 1:39:25 PM

Pav seems to be leaning into becoming more of a facilitator and less of the 15ppg player he was at Wofford. 10 assist day, looking more comfortable.

bobcatsquared
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 1:39:35 PM

I've been saying for a couple of years that EJ would lead the nation in having his shot blocked if the stat was kept. I'm now of the belief that Ohio would be the team leader in that category.

Last Edited: 11/21/2024 1:50:01 PM by bobcatsquared

Bobcat Love
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 1:42:22 PM

shabamon wrote:

I feel like we are playing pretty good. Not perfect, but +7 with 8 minutes left. Not bad and Pav is a really facillitating. Inconsistent whistles but we are hanging tough.

I could really do without Hadaway's theatrics. It's borderline obnoxious at this point. Flailing around on the ground after missing a rebound while MTSU gets an advantage on a 5-4 fast break, then Hadaway comes barrelling down the court and fouls Bufford shooting a 3. He did the same stupid stuff against Asheville also. Just tone it down, buddy. We get it, you are the energy guy. There's a fine line between energy guy, and a viral TikTok when you get burned and cost us a bucket.

JSF
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 1:44:36 PM

shabamon wrote:

Do we have a quasi student section there?

Alumni section, yeah.

"Loyalty to a hometown or city is fleeting and interchangeable, but college is a stamp of identity."- Kyle Whelliston, One Beautiful Season.

My blog about depression and mental illness: https://bit.ly/3buGXH8

Cat in NH
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 1:55:16 PM

Looks like a group of 6-8 behind the basket on the left.

Class of 1994 & 1996
Bobcat for Life

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 2:01:07 PM

FJC31 wrote:

bobcatsquared wrote:

Discussion in a group text with Ohio alumn: what does OUr basketball team do well.

This has yet to be answered in 4.5 games.

I don't know that this is fair. Obviously it's early in the season, so there's a lot of statistical noise and it's hard to know how thing'll settle.

But coming into this game we were shooting ~38% as a team from three. That's quite good -- would be top ~25ish in the country. We have shooting at every position, and are a good shooting team. That's true despite the combined 2-12 from three from AJC and AJB today -- they're both better than that.

It's just hard to notice that we're a good 3 point shooting team, given that opponents are shooting 92% (estimate) from three against us.

Cat in NH
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 2:02:28 PM

Coming down to foul shots. Let's go!

Class of 1994 & 1996
Bobcat for Life

Bobcat Love
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RE: Official Game 5 Thread: Middle Tennessee St.

Posted: 11/21/2024 2:08:45 PM

What a line from Pav this afternoon.

What an uninspired contest on the tying 3 by AJC. Not sure what the announcer was seeing. Ugh.

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