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Topic:  Bowl Projections

Topic:  Bowl Projections
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Trevor Stephens
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  Message Not Read  Bowl Projections
   Posted: 9/5/2022 8:21:15 PM 
MAC Bowl Tie-Ins, Affiliations
The top-ranked MAC champion will be in the mix for the Cotton Bowl if it’s the highest-ranked Group of Five champ – and if it’s not in the College Football Playoff.

The MAC doesn’t have a true pecking order. The bowls matchups are based on best possible games and geography.

– Bahamas Bowl vs Conference USA (Dec 16)
– Camellia Bowl vs American Athletic or Sun Belt (Dec. 27)
– Famous Idaho Potato Bowl vs Mountain West (Dec. 20)
– LendingTree Bowl vs Sun Belt (Dec. 17)
– Barstool Arizona Bowl vs Mountain West (Dec. 30)
– Quick Lane Bowl vs Big Ten (Dec. 26)

To be determined among the Group of Five conferences. MAC will get spots in two of these bowls …

– Cure Bowl vs Group of Five or Army (Dec. 16)
– Myrtle Beach Bowl vs American Athletic or Sun Belt (Dec. 19)
– New Mexico Bowl vs Conference USA (Dec. 17)
– RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl vs Group of Five (Dec. 20)
– Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl vs Group of Five (Dec. 17)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Week 13 After BG - Ohio is 9-3 (7-1)

CollegeFootballNews.com - Quick Lane Bowl vs Wisconsin

CBS Jerry Palm - Cure Bowl vs Marshall

Brett McMurphy - LendingTree Bow vs Marshall

Erick Smith USA TODAY - Arizona Bowl vs San Diego State

24/7 Sports - N/A

College Sports Madness - Famous Idaho Potato Bowl vs Wyoming

Profootballnetwork.com - Cure Bowl vs Georgia Southern

The Sporting News - Quick Lane Bowl vs Miami, FL

Sports Illustrated - Arizona Bowl vs Boise State

Athlon Sports - Arizona Bowl vs Fresno State

Yahoo Sports - Camellia Bowl vs Troy

The Athletic - Arizona Bowl vs San Diego State

ESPN Bonagura - Quick Lane Bowl vs Wisconsin

ESPN Schlabach - Quick Lane Bowl vs Minnesota

Last Edited: 11/23/2022 6:25:04 PM by Trevor Stephens

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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 9/5/2022 8:45:54 PM 
Well, we'll very likely be 2-2 going into conference play. Considering all eligible teams played last year as they created a new bowl just to allow that, getting a bowl might come down to getting to 4-4 in the MAC. The MAC East is bad enough that looks at least possible. But there might be a few 6-6 teams sitting home and we could be one of them. But its nice to be back on some of the bowl lists.
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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 9/5/2022 9:47:59 PM 
Victory wrote:
Well, we'll very likely be 2-2 going into conference play. Considering all eligible teams played last year as they created a new bowl just to allow that, getting a bowl might come down to getting to 4-4 in the MAC. The MAC East is bad enough that looks at least possible. But there might be a few 6-6 teams sitting home and we could be one of them. But its nice to be back on some of the bowl lists.


Or the NCAA could do what it did last year and create an extra bowl game or two so that all six-win teams play in a bowl. It was the NCAA's version of a participation trophy.


We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 9/5/2022 10:33:12 PM 
Pataskala wrote:
Victory wrote:
Well, we'll very likely be 2-2 going into conference play. Considering all eligible teams played last year as they created a new bowl just to allow that, getting a bowl might come down to getting to 4-4 in the MAC. The MAC East is bad enough that looks at least possible. But there might be a few 6-6 teams sitting home and we could be one of them. But its nice to be back on some of the bowl lists.


Or the NCAA could do what it did last year and create an extra bowl game or two so that all six-win teams play in a bowl. It was the NCAA's version of a participation trophy.


In my personal opinion once you have more than 12 bowls or so then its a participation trophy. Leaving two and only two eligible teams out IMO is THE most ridiculous of all possible numbers to leave out. How does leaving two teams out affect the value of a bowl? Especially when those two are not even determined by their resume. It is mostly just a random outcome of conference contracts of who happens to be close to a bowl with an open spot. If you leave 30 eligible teams out maybe there is an argument. Heck, leaving 8 out maybe gives you a very, very, very small argument that you are improving the value of a bowl. But leaving two out, chosen partially at random, just to say you left somebody out is insane. Why not just take politics out of it at that point? Creating that extra bowl was a completely fair and rational move.
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Trevor Stephens
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 9/13/2022 11:08:52 AM 
After PSU/Wk 2

CollegeFootballNews.com - Camellia Bowl vs Coastal Carolina (Dec 27) Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL

CBS Jerry Palm - LendingTree Bowl vs Georgia State (Dec 17) Mobile, Ala.

Brett McMurphy - Arizona Bowl vs Fresno State Dec. 30 Tucson, AZ

Erick Smith USA TODAY - No Bowl

Richard Johnson SI - No Bowl

ESPN Bonagura - Myrtle Beach Bowl vs Florida Atlantic (Dec 19) Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)

ESPN Schlabach - Camellia Bowl vs Marshall (Dec 27) Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL
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Campus Flow
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 9/13/2022 11:44:25 AM 
Coastal Carolina in a bowl game would be interesting.


Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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MonroeClassmate
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 9/14/2022 10:26:19 PM 
Trevor Stephens wrote:
After PSU/Wk 2


ESPN Schlabach - Camellia Bowl vs Marshall (Dec 27) Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL


We're the team that beat the team that beat Notre Dame!

This match-up would definitely turn the brain of the Herd fan to turd if it were to occur--and after their upset, who could blame them for the smackdown of having to play a MAC team!

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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 9/14/2022 11:13:39 PM 
MonroeClassmate wrote:
Trevor Stephens wrote:
After PSU/Wk 2


ESPN Schlabach - Camellia Bowl vs Marshall (Dec 27) Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL


We're the team that beat the team that beat Notre Dame!

This match-up would definitely turn the brain of the Herd fan to turd if it were to occur--and after their upset, who could blame them for the smackdown of having to play a MAC team!



Schlabach probably put them there because they have a tough row to hoe through the SBC in Oct and Nov. Here's their lineup: Louisiana (has gotten votes in polls); a good JMU team; a good Coastal Carolina team; ODU (beat VaTech); App St (beat TxA&M, almost beat UNC); GaSouthern (beat Nebraska); GaSt (almost beat UNC). They really don't have an easy game in the last seven. But his predictions will probably change eleven more times between now and Dec 1.


We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

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Trevor Stephens
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 9/19/2022 5:17:28 PM 
After ISU/Wk 3

CollegeFootballNews.com - Camellia Bowl vs Coastal Carolina Dec 27) Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL

CBS Jerry Palm - No Bowl

Brett McMurphy - No Bowl

Erick Smith USA TODAY - Cure Bowl vs Troy Dec 16 Orlando (This would be an upgrade from the normal Mac bowl slate)

24/7 Sports - Lending Tree Bowl vs Georgia Southern Dec 27 Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA

College Sports Madness - Boca Raton Bowl vs San Jose State Dec 20, Boca Raton, FL

The Sporting News - Bahamas Bowl vs North Texas, Dec 16 Bahamas

ESPN Bonagura - Myrtle Beach Bowl vs Florida Atlantic (Dec 19) Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)

ESPN Schlabach - No Bowl
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giacomo
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 9/30/2022 7:41:08 AM 
I can’t figure out what you’re trying to say.
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 9/30/2022 10:51:44 AM 
I'll wait until after the Kent game to make my travel plans for a bowl game.


"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 9/30/2022 11:01:54 AM 
OhioCatFan wrote:
I'll wait until after the Kent game to make my travel plans for a bowl game.


I've heard rumor that there will be free shuttle services to the game this year.
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Deciduous Forest Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 9/30/2022 11:05:58 AM 
OhioCatFan wrote:
I'll wait until after the Kent game to make my travel plans for a bowl game.


If you were smart you'd wait until the location/date/time of said bowl game was actually determined.

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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 9/30/2022 11:08:34 AM 

Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:
OhioCatFan wrote:
I'll wait until after the Kent game to make my travel plans for a bowl game.


If you were smart you'd wait until the location/date/time of said bowl game was actually determined.

 

cool


"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/12/2022 3:31:22 PM 
Now that more pundits than not have Ohio going to a bowl and Trevor is posting weekly updates I am nostalgic for those halcyon days before the pandemic when Ohio was bowl eligible every single year for well over a decade and I was keeping track of how many teams might be bowl eligible from Teamrankings. Teamrankings gives Ohio a 56% chance to win 6 or more games and become bowl eligible.

I count 39 FBS regular bowl games, 2 playoff semi-final bowl games (before a national championship game which doesn't provide 2 extra bowl slots), and 1 FCS bowl game. If I counted right that means 82 FBS teams will play in the postseason. Teamrankings percentages sum to 80 right now. That means a 5-7 team or two with a high graduation rate might play in a bowl. But if I remember the rules James Madision would become the first team to get to fill in if there are not enough eligible teams. This leads me to a seemingly ridiculous possibility. If James Madison is the highest ranked G5 team and they become eligible this way are the suddenly eligible to play in a NY6 bowl? Cincinnati is the only G5 team ranked ahead of them right now. They are eligible for votes in the AP and AFCA poll. Would they even be eligible for votes in the playoff committee poll?

Clemson 6-0 100.0%
Ohio State 6-0 100.0%
Michigan 6-0 100.0%
USC 6-0 100.0%
UCLA 6-0 100.0%
Georgia 6-0 100.0%
Alabama 6-0 100.0%
Mississippi 6-0 100.0%
Coastal Car 6-0 100.0%
Tennessee 5-0 100.0%
Liberty 5-1 100.0%
San Jose St 4-1 100.0%
Miss State 5-1 100.0%
Cincinnati 5-1 99.9%
NC State 5-1 99.9%
Penn State 5-0 99.9%
Oregon 5-1 99.9%
Utah 4-2 99.9%
Central FL 4-1 99.8%
TX-San Ant 4-2 99.8%
Wake Forest 5-1 99.7%
Minnesota 4-1 99.7%
N Carolina 5-1 99.6%
Oklahoma St 5-0 99.6%
Toledo 4-2 99.4%
Tulane 5-1 99.3%
Texas 4-2 99.2%
TX Christian 5-0 99.2%
Illinois 5-1 99.2%
Washington 4-2 99.2%
S Alabama 4-1 99.2%
Air Force 4-2 99.1%
Purdue 4-2 99.0%
BYU 4-2 98.8%
Boise State 4-2 98.7%
Syracuse 5-0 98.6%
Notre Dame 3-2 98.4%
Troy 4-2 98.1%
UAB 3-2 97.4%
Maryland 4-2 97.1%
Florida St 4-2 97.0%
Kansas St 5-1 96.0%
Oregon St 4-2 95.4%
Memphis 4-2 93.8%
App State 3-3 93.6%
W Kentucky 3-3 93.3%
UNLV 4-2 93.0%
Wyoming 4-3 91.3%
Middle Tenn 3-3 91.2%
Houston 3-3 91.0%
Pittsburgh 4-2 90.0%
Miami (OH) 3-3 88.4%
Texas A&M 3-3 88.1%
Wash State 4-2 87.9%
LSU 4-2 86.9%
Marshall 3-2 86.6%
Kentucky 4-2 85.3%
Buffalo 3-3 84.5%
Kansas 5-1 84.3%
S Carolina 4-2 82.5%
E Michigan 4-2 81.3%
Baylor 3-2 81.1%
Rice 3-2 80.1%
Florida 4-2 79.4%
S Methodist 2-3 79.1%
Wisconsin 3-3 75.9%
Miami (FL) 2-3 75.7%
Duke 4-2 70.9%
Arkansas 3-3 65.2%
Kent State 2-4 64.7%
S Mississippi 2-3 62.5%
Texas Tech 3-3 60.8%
Oklahoma 3-3 58.9%
E Carolina 3-3 58.5%
Iowa 3-3 57.3%
Fresno St 1-4 56.7%
Ohio 3-3 56.2%
North Texas 3-3 52.2%
San Diego St 3-3 52.0%
Louisville 3-3 51.9%
Ball State 3-3 51.9%
Army 1-4 48.3%
GA Southern 3-3 47.5%
Central Mich 1-5 45.2%
Fla Atlantic 2-4 43.1%
California 3-2 42.7%
Iowa State 3-3 42.5%
Arkansas St 2-4 37.7%
LA Lafayette 2-3 36.6%
LA Tech 2-3 35.0%
Arizona St 2-4 34.1%
Utah State 2-4 33.1%
W Virginia 2-3 31.9%
Missouri 2-4 29.8%
Texas State 3-3 27.9%
Michigan St 2-4 24.4%
TX El Paso 3-4 22.4%
New Mexico 2-4 21.3%
Auburn 3-3 21.2%
W Michigan 2-4 19.2%
N Illinois 1-5 19.0%
Georgia State 2-4 18.0%
Virginia 2-4 15.4%
Connecticut 3-4 15.3%
Tulsa 2-4 14.6%
GA Tech 3-3 14.3%
Navy 2-3 13.4%
Old Dominion 2-3 10.9%
VA Tech 2-4 10.5%
Rutgers 3-3 10.4%
Indiana 3-3 9.1%
Nebraska 3-3 8.2%
Bowling Grn 2-4 7.2%
Nevada 2-4 6.4%
Stanford 1-4 4.8%
LA Monroe 2-4 4.8%
Vanderbilt 3-3 4.5%
Arizona 3-3 4.2%
Temple 2-3 2.9%
Boston Col 2-4 2.6%
Colorado St 1-4 1.7%
S Florida 1-5 0.8%
Charlotte 1-5 0.2%
Florida Intl 2-3 0.2%
Hawaii 1-5 0.2%
U Mass 1-5 0.1%
Akron 1-5 0.1%
Northwestern 1-5 0.0%
N Mex State 1-5 0.0%
Colorado 0-5 0.0%
James Mad 5-0 0.0% <transistion ineligible

SUM 79.9

Last Edited: 10/12/2022 7:21:04 PM by Victory

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Trevor Stephens
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/12/2022 5:35:41 PM 
James Madison is still in their transistion period and is ineligible for conference championship game or postseason play until next year.

Last Edited: 10/12/2022 5:36:39 PM by Trevor Stephens

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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/12/2022 7:18:42 PM 
Trevor Stephens wrote:
James Madison is still in their transistion period and is ineligible for conference championship game or postseason play until next year.


I am aware of that. I marked them as such. But there used to be a series of six rules if not enough teams became fully eligible that went something like this:

1. 6-6 teams using an FCS win to get to 6 wins for the second straight season.
2. 6-7 teams that lost their conference championship game.
3. 6-7 teams that played 13 games for some other reason such as playing at Hawaii
4. 6-6 teams using two FCS wins
5. transition teams with winning records
6. 5-7 teams ranked by APR

I last saw this about 6 years ago and I don't know if that was the EXACT order of the 6 rules and I am not sure that the order made sense even in the NCAA's eyes even though the NCAA made them. If I recall both times rule 2 applied to a team they were granted a waiver to be fully eligible. And if in normal circumstances a transition team can't play even if they are unbeaten then why is that if they could play sometimes under weird circumstances? I tried to google this and the best I found was a wikipedia article.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bowl_eligibility

This is what that says:

1. Teams which would have met the eligibility criteria if not for the fact that they had one win against an FCS team that did not meet the scholarship requirement and no waiver was granted.
2. Teams which played 13 games during the regular season and finished with a 6–7 record.
3. Teams in their second year of reclassification from FCS to FBS football.
4. Teams with at least 5 wins and no more than 7 losses, in order of their Academic Progress Rates.

Just because it is on wikipedia doesn't mean that it is fully updated. The NCAA may have further altered this recently and nobody who helps maintain that page knows. If I am not mistaken a team is usually fully eligible play in the post-season in their second year playing in the FBS. If I recall teams usually play their first transition year in the FCS. I know their used to be some options in that regard. In James Madison's case they were not invited to the Sunbelt until about a year ago and this may be their first transition year so they may not be eligible under any circumstance this year even if those rules from wikipedia are still correct. But I would be wrong to claim that I have understanding of what exactly the rules are and what applies here.

Last Edited: 10/12/2022 7:22:10 PM by Victory

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mf279801
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/12/2022 10:47:35 PM 
Victory wrote:
Trevor Stephens wrote:
James Madison is still in their transistion period and is ineligible for conference championship game or postseason play until next year.


I am aware of that. I marked them as such. But there used to be a series of six rules if not enough teams became fully eligible that went something like this:

1. 6-6 teams using an FCS win to get to 6 wins for the second straight season.
2. 6-7 teams that lost their conference championship game.
3. 6-7 teams that played 13 games for some other reason such as playing at Hawaii
4. 6-6 teams using two FCS wins
5. transition teams with winning records
6. 5-7 teams ranked by APR

I last saw this about 6 years ago and I don't know if that was the EXACT order of the 6 rules and I am not sure that the order made sense even in the NCAA's eyes even though the NCAA made them. If I recall both times rule 2 applied to a team they were granted a waiver to be fully eligible. And if in normal circumstances a transition team can't play even if they are unbeaten then why is that if they could play sometimes under weird circumstances? I tried to google this and the best I found was a wikipedia article.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bowl_eligibility

This is what that says:

1. Teams which would have met the eligibility criteria if not for the fact that they had one win against an FCS team that did not meet the scholarship requirement and no waiver was granted.
2. Teams which played 13 games during the regular season and finished with a 6–7 record.
3. Teams in their second year of reclassification from FCS to FBS football.
4. Teams with at least 5 wins and no more than 7 losses, in order of their Academic Progress Rates.

Just because it is on wikipedia doesn't mean that it is fully updated. The NCAA may have further altered this recently and nobody who helps maintain that page knows. If I am not mistaken a team is usually fully eligible play in the post-season in their second year playing in the FBS. If I recall teams usually play their first transition year in the FCS. I know their used to be some options in that regard. In James Madison's case they were not invited to the Sunbelt until about a year ago and this may be their first transition year so they may not be eligible under any circumstance this year even if those rules from wikipedia are still correct. But I would be wrong to claim that I have understanding of what exactly the rules are and what applies here.


Bigger question for the G5 NY6 spot would be if JMU would get special dispensation to play in the SunBelt title game, as the G5-NY6 spot is specifically guaranteed to a G5 conference champion (i.e. BYU, Liberty, Army, et al. could be ranked #2 and admitted to the playoff but wouldn't impact the protected G5-champion NY6 bowl spot)
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/13/2022 10:34:41 AM 
mf279801 wrote:
Victory wrote:
Trevor Stephens wrote:
James Madison is still in their transistion period and is ineligible for conference championship game or postseason play until next year.


I am aware of that. I marked them as such. But there used to be a series of six rules if not enough teams became fully eligible that went something like this:

1. 6-6 teams using an FCS win to get to 6 wins for the second straight season.
2. 6-7 teams that lost their conference championship game.
3. 6-7 teams that played 13 games for some other reason such as playing at Hawaii
4. 6-6 teams using two FCS wins
5. transition teams with winning records
6. 5-7 teams ranked by APR

I last saw this about 6 years ago and I don't know if that was the EXACT order of the 6 rules and I am not sure that the order made sense even in the NCAA's eyes even though the NCAA made them. If I recall both times rule 2 applied to a team they were granted a waiver to be fully eligible. And if in normal circumstances a transition team can't play even if they are unbeaten then why is that if they could play sometimes under weird circumstances? I tried to google this and the best I found was a wikipedia article.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bowl_eligibility

This is what that says:

1. Teams which would have met the eligibility criteria if not for the fact that they had one win against an FCS team that did not meet the scholarship requirement and no waiver was granted.
2. Teams which played 13 games during the regular season and finished with a 6–7 record.
3. Teams in their second year of reclassification from FCS to FBS football.
4. Teams with at least 5 wins and no more than 7 losses, in order of their Academic Progress Rates.

Just because it is on wikipedia doesn't mean that it is fully updated. The NCAA may have further altered this recently and nobody who helps maintain that page knows. If I am not mistaken a team is usually fully eligible play in the post-season in their second year playing in the FBS. If I recall teams usually play their first transition year in the FCS. I know their used to be some options in that regard. In James Madison's case they were not invited to the Sunbelt until about a year ago and this may be their first transition year so they may not be eligible under any circumstance this year even if those rules from wikipedia are still correct. But I would be wrong to claim that I have understanding of what exactly the rules are and what applies here.


Bigger question for the G5 NY6 spot would be if JMU would get special dispensation to play in the SunBelt title game, as the G5-NY6 spot is specifically guaranteed to a G5 conference champion (i.e. BYU, Liberty, Army, et al. could be ranked #2 and admitted to the playoff but wouldn't impact the protected G5-champion NY6 bowl spot)


That's a very good point. There is probably no mechanism which could cause that to happen.
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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/13/2022 12:29:22 PM 
Victory wrote:
mf279801 wrote:
Victory wrote:
Trevor Stephens wrote:
James Madison is still in their transistion period and is ineligible for conference championship game or postseason play until next year.


I am aware of that. I marked them as such. But there used to be a series of six rules if not enough teams became fully eligible that went something like this:

1. 6-6 teams using an FCS win to get to 6 wins for the second straight season.
2. 6-7 teams that lost their conference championship game.
3. 6-7 teams that played 13 games for some other reason such as playing at Hawaii
4. 6-6 teams using two FCS wins
5. transition teams with winning records
6. 5-7 teams ranked by APR

I last saw this about 6 years ago and I don't know if that was the EXACT order of the 6 rules and I am not sure that the order made sense even in the NCAA's eyes even though the NCAA made them. If I recall both times rule 2 applied to a team they were granted a waiver to be fully eligible. And if in normal circumstances a transition team can't play even if they are unbeaten then why is that if they could play sometimes under weird circumstances? I tried to google this and the best I found was a wikipedia article.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bowl_eligibility

This is what that says:

1. Teams which would have met the eligibility criteria if not for the fact that they had one win against an FCS team that did not meet the scholarship requirement and no waiver was granted.
2. Teams which played 13 games during the regular season and finished with a 6–7 record.
3. Teams in their second year of reclassification from FCS to FBS football.
4. Teams with at least 5 wins and no more than 7 losses, in order of their Academic Progress Rates.

Just because it is on wikipedia doesn't mean that it is fully updated. The NCAA may have further altered this recently and nobody who helps maintain that page knows. If I am not mistaken a team is usually fully eligible play in the post-season in their second year playing in the FBS. If I recall teams usually play their first transition year in the FCS. I know their used to be some options in that regard. In James Madison's case they were not invited to the Sunbelt until about a year ago and this may be their first transition year so they may not be eligible under any circumstance this year even if those rules from wikipedia are still correct. But I would be wrong to claim that I have understanding of what exactly the rules are and what applies here.


Bigger question for the G5 NY6 spot would be if JMU would get special dispensation to play in the SunBelt title game, as the G5-NY6 spot is specifically guaranteed to a G5 conference champion (i.e. BYU, Liberty, Army, et al. could be ranked #2 and admitted to the playoff but wouldn't impact the protected G5-champion NY6 bowl spot)


That's a very good point. There is probably no mechanism which could cause that to happen.


They have petitioned the NCAA to reduce the waiting period to 1 year (2023), and are going back on that and asking for permission to be eligible this year.
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/13/2022 1:22:27 PM 
BillyTheCat wrote:

They have petitioned the NCAA to reduce the waiting period to 1 year (2023), and are going back on that and asking for permission to be eligible this year.


Thanks. So the situation is that they are playing their first transition year in FBS because they moved up on a short schedule. None on the rules on replacement teams could apply to them unless they are granted a waiver.
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/18/2022 2:40:46 PM 
Teamrankings has the chances of Ohio getting to at least 6 wins at 78.5% and the chances of Ohio winning the East is up to 16.1% FPI puts Ohio's chances for 6 wins at 83.4%

Teamrankings totals now sum to 80.9 eligible teams which is slightly up from last week. FPI has a "6wins%" which is almost the same as bowl eligibility but not exactly because JMU has a 99.7% chance at 6 wins but cannot go to a bowl. Also, a few teams play 13 games and could finish 6-7. FPI's 6 win numbers sum to 82.4 but without JMU its at least down to 81.4 as probably eligible. I tried to figure in the chances of 6-7 teams and I get that that number should be about 0.2 teams so FPI really predicts 81.2 eligible teams or so. That's pretty similar to Teamrankings.

I have seen these numbers stay very consistent in past years up until Thanksgiving weekend where one or two more 5-6 teams usually pull an upset than you might expect and you end up with a number one or two more than it predicted all season. There might be some credence to the idea that playing in a bowl gives a 5-6 team more incentive than the 7-4 team they are playing that has already qualified for a bowl but is also already out of its divisional race. However, even if that historical trend continues that's only about 82 or 83 eligible teams. I think right now that 6-6 gives us a good chance. But if it gets to 83 or 84 there is only one or two 6-6 teams sitting home it could easily turn out to be Ohio is one of them
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/18/2022 3:22:00 PM 
Victory wrote:
Teamrankings has the chances of Ohio getting to at least 6 wins at 78.5% and the chances of Ohio winning the East is up to 16.1% FPI puts Ohio's chances for 6 wins at 83.4%

Teamrankings totals now sum to 80.9 eligible teams which is slightly up from last week. FPI has a "6wins%" which is almost the same as bowl eligibility but not exactly because JMU has a 99.7% chance at 6 wins but cannot go to a bowl. Also, a few teams play 13 games and could finish 6-7. FPI's 6 win numbers sum to 82.4 but without JMU its at least down to 81.4 as probably eligible. I tried to figure in the chances of 6-7 teams and I get that that number should be about 0.2 teams so FPI really predicts 81.2 eligible teams or so. That's pretty similar to Teamrankings.

I have seen these numbers stay very consistent in past years up until Thanksgiving weekend where one or two more 5-6 teams usually pull an upset than you might expect and you end up with a number one or two more than it predicted all season. There might be some credence to the idea that playing in a bowl gives a 5-6 team more incentive than the 7-4 team they are playing that has already qualified for a bowl but is also already out of its divisional race. However, even if that historical trend continues that's only about 82 or 83 eligible teams. I think right now that 6-6 gives us a good chance. But if it gets to 83 or 84 there is only one or two 6-6 teams sitting home it could easily turn out to be Ohio is one of them


Very interesting research and analysis. I have one question: Under what circumstances can a team play 13 games now in the regular season, exclusive of conference playoffs? Years ago, for some strange reason, the NCAA allowed a school to play an extra game if they played a game at Hawai'i. Is that still true. I never understood the rationale for that.


"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/18/2022 5:43:47 PM 
OhioCatFan wrote:

Very interesting research and analysis. I have one question: Under what circumstances can a team play 13 games now in the regular season, exclusive of conference playoffs? Years ago, for some strange reason, the NCAA allowed a school to play an extra game if they played a game at Hawai'i. Is that still true. I never understood the rationale for that.


When it happens these days it is almost always a result of the Hawaii rule. Most of the "Week 0" games used to help fund charities such as Coaches vs. Cancer but they are just regular games now and you don't get an extra game for playing in them. Interesting is that MWC don't seem to be taking advantage of getting a 13th game as a result of a scheduled conference game every other year lately. As far as I know this rule still applies to conference games as well. But you are at a disadvantage for bowl eligibility with an odd number of games. Maybe MWC teams no longer think that it is worth it. Only WKU is taking advantage. Most of that 0.2 (or about a 1 in 5 chance of a team finishing 6-7) is the possibility of 4-3 WKU taking a step back with a lesser part 2-5 Hawaii who looks pretty unlikely to get to 6-7.

With 12 games 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, and 6 wins make you eligible. Seven different win totals make you eligible while only 6 are ineligible (0 through 5). If you play 13 games there are now 7 ways to be ineligible as well. You'd think that if you need to win half your games to be bowl eligible that only about 65 of the 130 non-transition or probation FBS teams would make it. But given that most FBS teams play an FCS game and win that well over half the time and more than half of all possible records are actually eligible this total will probably be more like 82 eligible teams or somewhere around 63%.

Last Edited: 10/18/2022 6:49:47 PM by Victory

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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl Projections
   Posted: 10/18/2022 10:06:11 PM 
Victory wrote:
OhioCatFan wrote:

Very interesting research and analysis. I have one question: Under what circumstances can a team play 13 games now in the regular season, exclusive of conference playoffs? Years ago, for some strange reason, the NCAA allowed a school to play an extra game if they played a game at Hawai'i. Is that still true. I never understood the rationale for that.


When it happens these days it is almost always a result of the Hawaii rule. Most of the "Week 0" games used to help fund charities such as Coaches vs. Cancer but they are just regular games now and you don't get an extra game for playing in them. Interesting is that MWC don't seem to be taking advantage of getting a 13th game as a result of a scheduled conference game every other year lately. As far as I know this rule still applies to conference games as well. But you are at a disadvantage for bowl eligibility with an odd number of games. Maybe MWC teams no longer think that it is worth it. Only WKU is taking advantage. Most of that 0.2 (or about a 1 in 5 chance of a team finishing 6-7) is the possibility of 4-3 WKU taking a step back with a lesser part 2-5 Hawaii who looks pretty unlikely to get to 6-7.

With 12 games 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, and 6 wins make you eligible. Seven different win totals make you eligible while only 6 are ineligible (0 through 5). If you play 13 games there are now 7 ways to be ineligible as well. You'd think that if you need to win half your games to be bowl eligible that only about 65 of the 130 non-transition or probation FBS teams would make it. But given that most FBS teams play an FCS game and win that well over half the time and more than half of all possible records are actually eligible this total will probably be more like 82 eligible teams or somewhere around 63%.


Oh...so the Hawai'i rule is still in effect. Interesting. So what is the rationale for it? Your costs to get to the Rainbow State are so high that you need another "pay game" to pay your expenses?


"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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