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Topic:  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Topic:  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
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TWT
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/12/2024 1:54:04 PM 
L.C. wrote:
Here's my thought: With the portal, it's a new world. The same old skills aren't going to produce the same old results. You're going to need a coach who has the old skills, but also is able to find and evaluate new talent in the portal and Juco, and then is able to sell them on his dreams, and then combine them with his existing players, then build a new team from the ruins of the prior one. Not everyone who tries that will succeed (e.g. Kent). Those who do succeed may be sought after. As an example, I expect the Indiana coach will be getting some big time offers after this season is over.


The AD should give the staff ample time then because of all the structural changes to recruiting. TA of course is pretty safe at the moment but if it the wheels fall off the car there is definitely believe one nice class could put them back on however that is defined in the future.

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TWT
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/13/2024 11:32:29 PM 
Miami has to play NIU and BG yet. If they lose to NIU but defeat BG and Ohio wins out the Bobcats are in Detriot as the only 1 loss team.

That said though regardless of Toledo dropping that game to Buffalo they have a better MAC season resume with a win over Miami and NIU. The last 3 MAC games Ohio has won by a margin of 32.3 ppg so there is at least a chance next Wednesday.

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Andrew Ruck
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/14/2024 8:21:23 AM 
And we are relatively certain that if we lose to Toledo, there is almost no plausible scenario that we would come out of a 2 loss tiebreaker?

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

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shabamon
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/14/2024 9:07:21 AM 
Next week vs Toledo just became the most pivotal game of the entire MAC season. An Ohio win most likely sets up Ohio vs Miami/BG winner in the championship game. Ohio would simply have to take care of business at home vs a hapless Ball State. A Toledo win sets up the possibility of six teams finishing with two losses. CHAOS!
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/14/2024 3:43:21 PM 
shabamon wrote:
Next week vs Toledo just became the most pivotal game of the entire MAC season. An Ohio win most likely sets up Ohio vs Miami/BG winner in the championship game. Ohio would simply have to take care of business at home vs a hapless Ball State. A Toledo win sets up the possibility of six teams finishing with two losses. CHAOS!

Ball State will likely be a battle. In other MAC games:
Ball State lost to CMU 37-34
Ball State lost to WMU 45-42
Ball State Beat Kent St 37-35
Ball State beat NIU 25-23
Ball State lost to Miami 27-21
Ball State lost to Buffalo 51-48

All but one of their games has been decided by a FG or less. Ohio will certainly be favored, but it will not necessarily be easy.

First Ohio needs to win in the Glass Bowl, and if that happens, we can worry about this.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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OhioBobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/14/2024 3:53:31 PM 
Ohio will beat Toledo and Ball State. Then Ohio will win the MACC. Seems pretty clear to me.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/14/2024 4:05:26 PM 
OhioBobcat wrote:
Ohio will beat Toledo and Ball State. Then Ohio will win the MACC. Seems pretty clear to me.

No offense, but that has been "pretty clear" to you almost every year. I hope that this will be the year where you are right. Certainly Ohio has continued to improve every game, and I hope that continues.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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bobcatsquared
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/14/2024 4:40:01 PM 
What's that saying about a blind squirrel?
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GoCats105
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/14/2024 5:27:35 PM 
OhioBobcat wrote:
Ohio will beat Toledo and Ball State. Then Ohio will win the MACC. Seems pretty clear to me.


Seriously what information does this football program have on you that you keep posting crap like this? It's clear to you every year and yet...1968.
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El Gato Roberto
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/14/2024 6:02:23 PM 
GoCats105 wrote:
OhioBobcat wrote:
Ohio will beat Toledo and Ball State. Then Ohio will win the MACC. Seems pretty clear to me.


Seriously what information does this football program have on you that you keep posting crap like this? It's clear to you every year and yet...1968.


A broken clock tells the correct time twice a day. I’m hoping that OhioBobcat’s hour is near!!

"The name's Ohio University, but everybody calls me Ohio. Any of you guys call me Ohio U, and I'll kill you."
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/14/2024 6:52:24 PM 
El Gato Roberto wrote:
GoCats105 wrote:
OhioBobcat wrote:
Ohio will beat Toledo and Ball State. Then Ohio will win the MACC. Seems pretty clear to me.


Seriously what information does this football program have on you that you keep posting crap like this? It's clear to you every year and yet...1968.


A broken clock tells the correct time twice a day. I’m hoping that OhioBobcat’s hour is near!!


Yes, I hope we win at least one before I die. The last one was a few year before I was born.
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mid70sbobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/14/2024 11:14:37 PM 
OhioBobcat wrote:
Ohio will beat Toledo and Ball State. Then Ohio will win the MACC. Seems pretty clear to me.



Most optimistic poster with least accurate results. Hope you're right this time.
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colobobcat66
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/15/2024 8:26:02 AM 
L.C. wrote:
shabamon wrote:
Next week vs Toledo just became the most pivotal game of the entire MAC season. An Ohio win most likely sets up Ohio vs Miami/BG winner in the championship game. Ohio would simply have to take care of business at home vs a hapless Ball State. A Toledo win sets up the possibility of six teams finishing with two losses. CHAOS!

Ball State will likely be a battle. In other MAC games:
Ball State lost to CMU 37-34
Ball State lost to WMU 45-42
Ball State Beat Kent St 37-35
Ball State beat NIU 25-23
Ball State lost to Miami 27-21
Ball State lost to Buffalo 51-48

All but one of their games has been decided by a FG or less. Ohio will certainly be favored, but it will not necessarily be easy.

First Ohio needs to win in the Glass Bowl, and if that happens, we can worry about this.


I honestly think we have a good chance of losing the Ball State game. They can score and our offense is not really very good. If we get behind, we could be in trouble keeping up with them.
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UpSan Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/16/2024 12:41:25 AM 
colobobcat66 wrote:
L.C. wrote:
shabamon wrote:
Next week vs Toledo just became the most pivotal game of the entire MAC season. An Ohio win most likely sets up Ohio vs Miami/BG winner in the championship game. Ohio would simply have to take care of business at home vs a hapless Ball State. A Toledo win sets up the possibility of six teams finishing with two losses. CHAOS!

Ball State will likely be a battle. In other MAC games:
Ball State lost to CMU 37-34
Ball State lost to WMU 45-42
Ball State Beat Kent St 37-35
Ball State beat NIU 25-23
Ball State lost to Miami 27-21
Ball State lost to Buffalo 51-48

All but one of their games has been decided by a FG or less. Ohio will certainly be favored, but it will not necessarily be easy.

First Ohio needs to win in the Glass Bowl, and if that happens, we can worry about this.


I honestly think we have a good chance of losing the Ball State game. They can score and our offense is not really very good. If we get behind, we could be in trouble keeping up with them.


Ohio's offense tends to put up really good numbers against average and below MAC defenses. Ball State's is definitely that. The Bobcats actually rank third in the MAC in yards and scoring. Ball State is sixth in scoring and eighth in yards.
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Deciduous Forest Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/16/2024 9:16:10 AM 
UpSan Bobcat wrote:
colobobcat66 wrote:
L.C. wrote:
shabamon wrote:
Next week vs Toledo just became the most pivotal game of the entire MAC season. An Ohio win most likely sets up Ohio vs Miami/BG winner in the championship game. Ohio would simply have to take care of business at home vs a hapless Ball State. A Toledo win sets up the possibility of six teams finishing with two losses. CHAOS!

Ball State will likely be a battle. In other MAC games:
Ball State lost to CMU 37-34
Ball State lost to WMU 45-42
Ball State Beat Kent St 37-35
Ball State beat NIU 25-23
Ball State lost to Miami 27-21
Ball State lost to Buffalo 51-48

All but one of their games has been decided by a FG or less. Ohio will certainly be favored, but it will not necessarily be easy.

First Ohio needs to win in the Glass Bowl, and if that happens, we can worry about this.


I honestly think we have a good chance of losing the Ball State game. They can score and our offense is not really very good. If we get behind, we could be in trouble keeping up with them.


Ohio's offense tends to put up really good numbers against average and below MAC defenses. Ball State's is definitely that. The Bobcats actually rank third in the MAC in yards and scoring. Ball State is sixth in scoring and eighth in yards.


Ball State has now fired Mike Neu... not sure whether he serves out his term. will be interesting to see which way the team goes the last two games.
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Mike Coleman
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/16/2024 9:30:45 AM 
Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:
UpSan Bobcat wrote:
colobobcat66 wrote:
L.C. wrote:
shabamon wrote:
Next week vs Toledo just became the most pivotal game of the entire MAC season. An Ohio win most likely sets up Ohio vs Miami/BG winner in the championship game. Ohio would simply have to take care of business at home vs a hapless Ball State. A Toledo win sets up the possibility of six teams finishing with two losses. CHAOS!

Ball State will likely be a battle. In other MAC games:
Ball State lost to CMU 37-34
Ball State lost to WMU 45-42
Ball State Beat Kent St 37-35
Ball State beat NIU 25-23
Ball State lost to Miami 27-21
Ball State lost to Buffalo 51-48

All but one of their games has been decided by a FG or less. Ohio will certainly be favored, but it will not necessarily be easy.

First Ohio needs to win in the Glass Bowl, and if that happens, we can worry about this.


I honestly think we have a good chance of losing the Ball State game. They can score and our offense is not really very good. If we get behind, we could be in trouble keeping up with them.


Ohio's offense tends to put up really good numbers against average and below MAC defenses. Ball State's is definitely that. The Bobcats actually rank third in the MAC in yards and scoring. Ball State is sixth in scoring and eighth in yards.


Ball State has now fired Mike Neu... not sure whether he serves out his term. will be interesting to see which way the team goes the last two games.


What a joke. 15 points from undefeated in conference.
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Mike Coleman
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/16/2024 5:41:18 PM 
Andrew Ruck wrote:
And we are relatively certain that if we lose to Toledo, there is almost no plausible scenario that we would come out of a 2 loss tiebreaker?


Interesting question. I see a plausible scenario where there is a five-way tie for second* — or a six-way tie for first# — at 6-2 if:
* we lose to Toledo and beat Ball
* BG beats Ball and loses to Miami
* Buffalo beats EMU and Kent
* Western beats CMU and EMU
* Toledo beats Ohio and Akron
* Miami beats NIU and BG
# Miami loses to NIU and beats BG and 1-5 play out as above
# BG loses to Ball, beats Miami and Miami beats NIU and 1 and 3-5 play out as above

As a matter of fact, there is a pretty good chance either could happen.

In the five-team, second-place scenario, what even is the tiebreaker? Not all the teams would have played Miami, so you can't go with record against the first-place team. Or can you? Is it point differential? Winning percentage among the pool?

Don’t even wanna think about a six-way tie for first.

Any way, if it gets to point differential I think we have a shot.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/16/2024 6:21:08 PM 
Mike Coleman wrote:
Interesting question. I see at least a plausible scenario where there is a five-way tie for second* — or a six-way tie for first# — at 6-2 if...

If Ohio loses to Toledo, then both Miami and Toledo would have the tiebreaker against Ohio, and Ohio would have to rely on a lot of very unlikely help to get into the MACC game. The answer is, just beat Toledo.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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shabamon
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/20/2024 11:10:49 PM 
The most chaos thing to happen would be

Ohio and BG lose to Ball State
BG beats Miami
Buffalo beats Kent

I T H I N K, Buffalo gets in in this scenario and then you're really getting into the weeds of who goes because the NIU/WMU games and the CMU/EMU games get decisive about team rankings top to bottom and who of the remaining teams has the best win among common opponents. I really honestly tried to figure this one out but I'm tapped.

For Ohio, a win over Ball State gets them in.

A loss to Ball State, A BG win over Ball State but a loss to Miami should equal BG going to the MACCG no matter what Buffalo does against Kent.

Buffalo needs Ball State to beat BG to stay alive.

Last Edited: 11/20/2024 11:12:02 PM by shabamon
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ExCat21
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 12:43:01 AM 
shabamon wrote:
The most chaos thing to happen would be

Ohio and BG lose to Ball State
BG beats Miami
Buffalo beats Kent

I T H I N K, Buffalo gets in in this scenario and then you're really getting into the weeds of who goes because the NIU/WMU games and the CMU/EMU games get decisive about team rankings top to bottom and who of the remaining teams has the best win among common opponents. I really honestly tried to figure this one out but I'm tapped.

For Ohio, a win over Ball State gets them in.

A loss to Ball State, A BG win over Ball State but a loss to Miami should equal BG going to the MACCG no matter what Buffalo does against Kent.

Buffalo needs Ball State to beat BG to stay alive.


OU beating Toledo tonight has changed the tie-breaker over Buffs. We have a win over Toledo and beat Buffs.
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Mike Coleman
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 12:58:02 AM 
ExCat21 wrote:
shabamon wrote:
The most chaos thing to happen would be

Ohio and BG lose to Ball State
BG beats Miami
Buffalo beats Kent

I T H I N K, Buffalo gets in in this scenario and then you're really getting into the weeds of who goes because the NIU/WMU games and the CMU/EMU games get decisive about team rankings top to bottom and who of the remaining teams has the best win among common opponents. I really honestly tried to figure this one out but I'm tapped.

For Ohio, a win over Ball State gets them in.

A loss to Ball State, A BG win over Ball State but a loss to Miami should equal BG going to the MACCG no matter what Buffalo does against Kent.

Buffalo needs Ball State to beat BG to stay alive.


OU beating Toledo tonight has changed the tie-breaker over Buffs. We have a win over Toledo and beat Buffs.


In a two-way tie we go over Buffalo because of head to head
In a multi-team tie, Buffalo would move ahead of us with a 2-0 record v Ball and Toledo while we would have a 1-1 record. Miami also has a 1-1 record v those common opponents, so Buffalo would advance if BG beats Miami and Ball State and we lose to Ball State.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 8:12:01 AM 
TeamRankings now gives the chances of winning the MACC game as:
Ohio - 41.8%
Miami - 29.5%
BG - 28.7%
Buffalo - 0.0%

That means they don't see a situation where Buffalo can be in the MACC game at all, regardless of who wins the remaining games. I don't, either, primarily because they have no wins against any top teams. They didn't play BG or Miami, and they lost to Ohio.

Now let's turn our attention to Ohio's chances. If Ohio beats Ball State, they are in, so we only need to concern ourselves with what happens if they screw up and lose. We can also presume that Buffalo beats Kent, and finishes 6-2, because if they don't, it doesn't matter, since they are always eliminated from any tie-breaker anyway due to their loss to Ohio.

IF OHIO LOSES TO BALL STATE:
That leaves only two games of concern, BG versus Ball St, and Miami-BG, which leaves only 4 possible outcomes:
1. BG beats Ball St, BG beats Miami
In this case, BG is 7-1, while Ohio, Miami, and Buffalo are all 6-2
Miami beat Ohio, while Ohio beat Buffalo, so if I understand, Miami would go, and you get a repeat of BG-Miami.
MACC game= BG 7-1 versus Miami 6-2

2. BG beats Ball St, Miami beats BG
In this case Miami is 7-1, while Ohio, BG, and Buffalo are 6-2
Ohio beat Buffalo, while BG did not play either Buffalo or Ohio. Buffalo would be out, but not sure between Ohio and BG who would go. Game would be Miami against either Ohio or BG. Per shabamon above, BG goes in this situation.
MACC Game= Miami 7-1 versus BG 6-2

3. Ball St beats BG, BG beats Miami
In this case Miami, Ohio, BG, and Buffalo are all 6-2
Miami beat Ohio, but lost to BG. Ohio lost to Miami, but beat Buffalo. BG beat Miami, and didn't play the others. Buffalo lost to Ohio, but didn't play the others. Not sure how this works, but it seems Buffalo would be out, and the game would be two of the three (Miami, BG, Ohio). I would guess that it would be Miami-BG in this situation, since BG would have the tiebreaker over Miami, while Miami would have the tiebreaker over Ohio.
MACC Game= Miami 6-2 versus BG 6-2

4. Ball St beats BG, Miami beats BG
In this case BG is 5-3 and out. Miami is 7-1, and in. Ohio and Buffalo are tied at 6-2, and Ohio has the tiebreaker
MACC Game= Miami 7-1 versus Ohio 6-2

SIMPLIFIED CONCLUSIONS:
If Ohio beat Ball State, the MACC game will be Ohio versus the winner of BG-Miami. If Ohio loses to Ball State, the MACC game will probably be a repeat of the Miami-BG game, except in one remote situation.

The clear point here is that Ohio needs to take care of business and beat Ball State.

As a side note, after years of the West dominating the East, it's humorous that in the first year of a unified conference, the top four teams are all from the East. ;)

Last Edited: 11/21/2024 2:17:50 PM by L.C.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Mike Coleman
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 8:22:52 AM 
L.C. wrote:
TeamRankings now gives the chances of winning the MACC game as:
Ohio - 41.8%
Miami - 29.5%
BG - 28.7%
Buffalo - 0.0%

That means they don't see a situation where Buffalo can be in the MACC game at all, regardless of who wins the remaining games. I don't, either, primarily because they have no wins against any top teams. They didn't play BG or Miami, and they lost to Ohio.

Now let's turn our attention to Ohio's chances. If Ohio beats Ball State, they are in, so we only need to concern ourselves with what happens if they screw up and lose. We can also presume that Buffalo beats Kent, and finishes 6-2, because if they don't, it doesn't matter, since they are always eliminated from any tie-breaker anyway due to their loss to Ohio.

IF OHIO LOSES TO BALL STATE:
That leaves only two games of concern, BG versus Ball St, and Miami-BG, which leaves only 4 possible outcomes:
1. BG beats Ball St, BG beats Miami
In this case, BG is 7-1, while Ohio, Miami, and Buffalo are all 6-2
Miami beat Ohio, while Ohio beat Buffalo, so if I understand, Miami would go, and you get a repeat of BG-Miami.
MACC game= BG 7-1 versus Miami 6-2

2. BG beats Ball St, Miami beats BG
In this case Miami is 7-1, while Ohio, BG, and Buffalo are 6-2
Ohio beat Buffalo, while BG did not play either Buffalo or Ohio. Buffalo would be out, but not sure between Ohio and BG who would go. Game would be Miami against either Ohio or BG. Per shabamon above, BG goes in this situation.
MACC Game= Miami 7-1 versus BG 6-2

3. Ball St beats BG, BG beats Miami
In this case Miami, Ohio, BG, and Buffalo are all 6-2
Miami beat Ohio, but lost to BG. Ohio lost to Miami, but beat Buffalo. BG beat Miami, and didn't play the others. Buffalo lost to Ohio, but didn't play the others. Not sure how this works, but it seems Buffalo would be out, and the game would be two of the three (Miami, BG, Ohio). I would guess that it would be Miami-BG in this situation, since BG would have the tiebreaker over Miami, while Miami would have the tiebreaker over Ohio.
MACC Game= Miami 6-2 versus BG 6-2

4. Ball St beats BG, Miami beats BG
In this case BG is 5-3 and out. Miami, Ohio, and Buffalo are tied at 6-2
Miami beat Ohio so they are in. Ohio beat Buffalo, so they are in. Buffalo is out. You get a repeat of Miami-Ohio.
MACC Game= Miami 6-2 versus Ohio 6-2

The clear point here is that Ohio needs to take care of business and beat Ball State.

As a side note, after years of the West dominating the East, it's humorous that in the first year of a unified conference, the top four teams are all from the East. ;)


No. In situations 1&3, Buffalo would be in the title game. Since all the teams have not played each other, the tiebreaker would fall to record v common opponents. Buffalo owns wins v Toledo and Ball State, while Miami would be 1-1 and Ohio would be 1-1.
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TWT
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 8:28:37 AM 
I know there is a natural tendency to hate Miami but Ohio is probably better off facing them a second time in Detriot as its tough to be a team twice in football and an attempt to try and avenge that first loss.

If BG goes out and crushes Miami I don't know if I'm going to feel as good about the MACC. Both BG and Miami had good non-conference performances. BG lost to Penn State 34-27 and Miami held Notre Dame to 28, teams that are projected in the playoff.

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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Andrew Ruck
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 8:47:21 AM 
Excellent work LC, we will have the clear picture in a couple days after the BG game. I saw BG is favored by 12 at Ball State...If I were a betting man, I'd take BSU there. They literally haven't lost a MAC game by more than 6. And the coaching change could go either way, but I could certainly see it creating some new life and zest to prove something.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

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