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Topic:  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios

Topic:  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
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M.D.W.S.T
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 9:50:16 AM 
Andrew Ruck wrote:
Excellent work LC, we will have the clear picture in a couple days after the BG game. I saw BG is favored by 12 at Ball State...If I were a betting man, I'd take BSU there. They literally haven't lost a MAC game by more than 6. And the coaching change could go either way, but I could certainly see it creating some new life and zest to prove something.


A team with nothing to lose vs a team with everything to gain is my worst nightmare.

I feel different about this team though, they really showed some grit in that second half. Win. Stay healthy. Let's go to Detroit. 3-straight 10-win seasons within grasp... who would've thunk it?

I hope Julie has Brian on line one... jussssst in case.

Last Edited: 11/21/2024 9:50:43 AM by M.D.W.S.T
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UpSan Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 10:39:00 AM 
L.C. wrote:

3. Ball St beats BG, BG beats Miami
In this case Miami, Ohio, BG, and Buffalo are all 6-2
Miami beat Ohio, but lost to BG. Ohio lost to Miami, but beat Buffalo. BG beat Miami, and didn't play the others. Buffalo lost to Ohio, but didn't play the others. Not sure how this works, but it seems Buffalo would be out, and the game would be two of the three (Miami, BG, Ohio). I would guess that it would be Miami-BG in this situation, since BG would have the tiebreaker over Miami, while Miami would have the tiebreaker over Ohio.
MACC Game= Miami 6-2 versus BG 6-2


I'm not sure if I understand these tiebreakers correctly, but I think this could be a chance for Buffalo to go. First tiebreaker for a multi-team tie is combined head-to-head win percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents. They would not be all common opponents in this case, so it does not apply. BG didn't play Ohio or Buffalo, and Miami didn't play Buffalo either. So the second tiebreaker wouldn't apply either: If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams advances.

So then the third tiebreaker: Win percentage versus all common opponents. There are three opponents that all four tied teams played: Toledo, Ball State and Kent State. In this scenario where all four teams end up 6-2, the team records against those three common opponents would be: Buffalo 3-0 and the other three teams 2-1 (Ohio and BG would have losses to Ball State, while Miami has the loss to Toledo.) So I think that advances Buffalo to the title game.

From there, it's not clear. To determine the second team, do you start over with the three remaining teams at the top of the tiebreakers or continue through the tiebreakers? I think typically once one or more teams is eliminated, you start over, but it doesn't say that. But if you do start over, it would come down to common opponents again, since Ohio and BG didn't play each other, and in this scenario, Miami split with the two teams.

So common opponents for all three of Ohio, BG and Miami are the same teams as before (all 2-1) plus Central Michigan, which all three teams beat, so either way you geto to the next tiebreaker, win percentage vs. common opponents based on order of finish. Toledo is probably the highest finishing team, assuming it beats Akron, and if that's the case Miami would be eliminated by its loss to Toledo whereas the other two teams won. So then you have a two-team tiebreaker between BG and Ohio, and that would come down to win percentage vs. common opponents, which BG would win because of their win against Miami. So if I have this right, it would be BG vs. Buffalo in a four-way tie, but I might not be applying something correctly.
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Mike Coleman
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 11:20:39 AM 
Needs clarifying for sure. But I think UpSan is right.

In my estimation:
In this case, the first tiebreaker that is applicable is record against common opponents. The key common opponents are Toledo and Ball State. Buffalo would advance based of a 2-0 record against Toledo and Ball, while BG, Miami and Ohio would be 1-1, leaving a three-way tie for the second spot. What do they do then? Go back to the top of the list of tiebreakers or head down to winning percentage of all conference opponents? That would be weird since of the four Buffalo would have the worst, but they would already be out of the mix and packing for Ford Field.

Honestly, the divisions make much more sense. Too many teams leaves too few common opponents. It’s crazy to think Buffalo could advance solely on not playing BG and Miami…if we are reading correctly.

Last Edited: 11/21/2024 11:30:06 AM by Mike Coleman
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 11:31:29 AM 
There is one more scenario where a tiebreaker would be needed. That is if Ohio beats Ball State, Ball State beats BG, and BG beats Miami. In that case Ohio is in, at 7-1, but Buffalo, Miami, and BG would all be tied at 6-2. Which team would Ohio play?

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Mike Coleman
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 11:33:08 AM 
Regardless, it’s pretty apparent the MAC used the same consultant to draw up these tiebreakers as the Big 10.

https://getsomemaction.com/news/2024/9/18/mac-announces-n...

https://bigten.org/fb/article/blt6104802d94ebe1ab /
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Mike Coleman
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 11:38:53 AM 
L.C. wrote:
There is one more scenario where a tiebreaker would be needed. That is if Ohio beats Ball State, Ball State beats BG, and BG beats Miami. In that case Ohio is in, at 7-1, but Buffalo, Miami, and BG would all be tied at 6-2. Which team would Ohio play?


Buffalo. Same tiebreaker as above.

That’s my final answer, based on my reading of the tiebreaker.

Another scenario would be Bg losing to Ball and Miami and we would lose to Ball. In that case, Miami is in at 7-1, we would be in at 6-2 over Buffalo because the head-to-head would apply, and BG would be 5-3.

And technically, Buffalo could lose to Kent. lol.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 12:02:41 PM 
Mike, that last example was my scenario 4, where I reached the same conclusion. I perused the various fan forums to see what other fans think. UB fans agree with you that Buffalo wins most tiebreakers.
https://ubfan.com/bb/index.php?/topic/11640-mac-champions... /

BG fans believe they have but one path, that being to win out, and that they don't win any tiebreakers. So far as I can tell, either Miami doesn't have any fans, or the ones they have don't care, as I can't find any discussion of the path to the MACC game at all.

After reading the tiebreaker rules again, I believe that you, and the UB fans, are correct, and that the computer over at TeamRankings has the tiebreaker rules programmed incorrectly, and that it is wrong.

Last Edited: 11/21/2024 12:03:56 PM by L.C.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Mike Coleman
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 12:28:59 PM 
Yes, I think so.

I still do not know who plays Buffalo if there is a four-way tie. It may come down to how all common opponents finish out. I’d be rooting for EMU and CMU to win and WMU and NIU to lose just in case lol.

Some of these scenarios will disappear after the BG-Ball game.
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UpSan Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 1:35:54 PM 
Mike Coleman wrote:
Yes, I think so.

I still do not know who plays Buffalo if there is a four-way tie. It may come down to how all common opponents finish out. I’d be rooting for EMU and CMU to win and WMU and NIU to lose just in case lol.

Some of these scenarios will disappear after the BG-Ball game.


Right now there are four games with implications, so there are technically 16 different combinations of winners. After one more game Saturday, that will be cut in half to only eight, so it's a lot less to consider. Plus if BG wins as expected, it really simplifies the scenarios.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 2:10:36 PM 
The chances of Kent beating Beffalo are too remote to even worry about. After the Bg-Ball St game there will be two competitive games left, and thus, four scenarios. If BG beats Ball State, Ohio needs to beat Ball State, too. If Ball State beats BG, Ohio is in if either Ohio or Miami wins their final game.

Let's please beat Ball State. I do not want to root for Miami to win.

Last Edited: 11/21/2024 2:23:36 PM by L.C.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 2:44:33 PM 
Mike Coleman wrote:
Regardless, it’s pretty apparent the MAC used the same consultant to draw up these tiebreakers as the Big 10.

https://getsomemaction.com/news/2024/9/18/mac-announces-n...

https://bigten.org/fb/article/blt6104802d94ebe1ab /


My head almost exploded in the 1990s when people said these championship games will provide a "clear champion" without ties or tiebreaker to settle who gets what. I don't have any issue with the championship games. I like them because they are entertaining and not because the provide a "clear champion". The tiebreakers with divisions were one thing when everyone played each other. But they were just that. Tiebreakers. We could apply a tiebreaker without a championship game and call it clear and decisive as easily as Applying them with a game. The post division tiebreakers are even less decisive. We could settle who gets to go with tiddly winks, rock paper scissors, or eeinie meenie minie moe and it would be just about as clear and decisive.

Covering up tiebreakers by playing a game afterwards doesn't make it as if they didn't happen. So it isn't in reality any more clear and decisive with the game than without.

Last Edited: 11/21/2024 2:46:07 PM by Victory
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 3:48:40 PM 
MAC futures depending where you look are about:
BGSU: 1:1
Ohio: 2:1
Miami: 3:1
Buffalo: 30:1
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 7:19:24 PM 
Victory wrote:
My head almost exploded in the 1990s when people said these championship games will provide a "clear champion" without ties or tiebreaker to settle who gets what. I don't have any issue with the championship games. I like them because they are entertaining and not because the provide a "clear champion". The tiebreakers with divisions were one thing when everyone played each other. But they were just that. Tiebreakers. We could apply a tiebreaker without a championship game and call it clear and decisive as easily as Applying them with a game. The post division tiebreakers are even less decisive. We could settle who gets to go with tiddly winks, rock paper scissors, or eeinie meenie minie moe and it would be just about as clear and decisive.

Covering up tiebreakers by playing a game afterwards doesn't make it as if they didn't happen. So it isn't in reality any more clear and decisive with the game than without.

This year it worked out remarkably well, actually. You have probably the four best teams in the MAC, Ohio, BG, Miami, and Toledo, playing essentially a playoff, with the winner of the Ohio-Toledo game playing the winner of the BG-Miami game for the championship, and a fifth team, Buffalo, on deck in case one of the top four falters.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 8:12:10 PM 
L.C. wrote:
Victory wrote:
My head almost exploded in the 1990s when people said these championship games will provide a "clear champion" without ties or tiebreaker to settle who gets what. I don't have any issue with the championship games. I like them because they are entertaining and not because the provide a "clear champion". The tiebreakers with divisions were one thing when everyone played each other. But they were just that. Tiebreakers. We could apply a tiebreaker without a championship game and call it clear and decisive as easily as Applying them with a game. The post division tiebreakers are even less decisive. We could settle who gets to go with tiddly winks, rock paper scissors, or eeinie meenie minie moe and it would be just about as clear and decisive.

Covering up tiebreakers by playing a game afterwards doesn't make it as if they didn't happen. So it isn't in reality any more clear and decisive with the game than without.

This year it worked out remarkably well, actually. You have probably the four best teams in the MAC, Ohio, BG, Miami, and Toledo, playing essentially a playoff, with the winner of the Ohio-Toledo game playing the winner of the BG-Miami game for the championship, and a fifth team, Buffalo, on deck in case one of the top four falters.


If two teams finish 7-1 then sure. If one team finishes 7-1 and three finish 6-2 and we have to have the MAC office tell us who gets to go because it isn't clear enough to figure it out ourselves then nope.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/21/2024 9:41:11 PM 
Victory wrote:
L.C. wrote:
Victory wrote:
My head almost exploded in the 1990s when people said these championship games will provide a "clear champion" without ties or tiebreaker to settle who gets what. I don't have any issue with the championship games. I like them because they are entertaining and not because the provide a "clear champion". The tiebreakers with divisions were one thing when everyone played each other. But they were just that. Tiebreakers. We could apply a tiebreaker without a championship game and call it clear and decisive as easily as Applying them with a game. The post division tiebreakers are even less decisive. We could settle who gets to go with tiddly winks, rock paper scissors, or eeinie meenie minie moe and it would be just about as clear and decisive.

Covering up tiebreakers by playing a game afterwards doesn't make it as if they didn't happen. So it isn't in reality any more clear and decisive with the game than without.

This year it worked out remarkably well, actually. You have probably the four best teams in the MAC, Ohio, BG, Miami, and Toledo, playing essentially a playoff, with the winner of the Ohio-Toledo game playing the winner of the BG-Miami game for the championship, and a fifth team, Buffalo, on deck in case one of the top four falters.


If two teams finish 7-1 then sure. If one team finishes 7-1 and three finish 6-2 and we have to have the MAC office tell us who gets to go because it isn't clear enough to figure it out ourselves then nope.

Yet Miami, BG, and Ohio all currently control their own destiny, and not so long ago, I believe Toledo did as well. The only team possible to finish 6-2 that does not control their destiny is Buffalo, who will regain control of their destiny if Ball State beats BG. If a team controls their own destiny, and loses, and then complains about losing a tie breaker, I'm not going to be very sympathetic to them. Buffalo can't complain, either, because they have already lost 2 games, and stand to win a tiebreaker, if they can only get into one.

Last Edited: 11/21/2024 9:44:27 PM by L.C.

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Mike Coleman
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/22/2024 9:25:17 AM 
First off, Ball State is one of the MAC’s worst teams against the run, their passing game is slightly behind Toledo’s and they’ve given up 25 sacks, and they are playing on a short week on the road the day after Thanksgiving. This is a game we should win.

That said, if we lose, do we still clinch a spot if Ball State beats BG? Close, but nope.

If Miami beats BG, we tie with Buffalo and advance to title game.
If BG beats Miami, there is a four-way tie for first. Let’s go through the tiebreakers.

1. Combined head-to-head win percentage among the tied teams if all
tied teams are common opponents.
Does not apply.

2. If all the tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that
defeated each of the other tied teams advances.
Does not apply.

3. Win percentage versus all common opponents.
Buffalo beat Toledo and Ball State. Miami, BG, and Ohio went 1-1. Buffalo advances.

4. Win percentage versus common opponents based upon their order
of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and
proceeding through other common opponents based upon their
order of finish.
Miami lost to Toledo. They are eliminated. BG and Ohio beat Toledo and move down the list and move to next tiebreaker.

5. Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents.
BG currently 23-32
Ohio currently 23-32

Next week:
Ohio opponent Buffalo plays mutual opponent Kent
Mutual opponent CMU plays BG opponent NIU
Ohio opponent EMU plays BG opponent WMU

I think this could come down to the winner of EMU V WMU.
6. The tied team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score
metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of
regular season games.
SportSource: Trust me bro.

7. The representative shall be chosen by a draw as administered by the
Commissioner or Commissioner’s designee.
Awesome. Couldn’t do total points or something?
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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/23/2024 1:57:29 AM 
Mike Coleman wrote:
Regardless, it’s pretty apparent the MAC used the same consultant to draw up these tiebreakers as the Big 10.

https://getsomemaction.com/news/2024/9/18/mac-announces-n...

https://bigten.org/fb/article/blt6104802d94ebe1ab /


Since they are both in the same family, you’d be on t something.
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MonroeClassmate
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/23/2024 6:22:55 PM 
Come on boys, BGSU beat Balls.

Update the scenarios or do you have something better to do in life?
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Andrew Ruck
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/23/2024 7:15:18 PM 
Pataskala gave the rundown in a different thread. There is no scenario where Ohio advances with a loss.



If Ohio wins this week, they’re in the MACCG vs the MOFO-BG winner.

If Ohio loses:

*And is in a two-way tie with MOFO at 6-2, MOFO goes to the MACCG based on head-to-head competition.

*And is in a two-way tie with BG at 6-2, BG would go to the MACCG based on a better record vs common conference opponents (5-1 for BG, 4-2 for Ohio vs Akron, BSU, CMU Kent, MOFO and Toledo).

*And is in a three-way tie with MOFO and Buffalo at 6-2, Buffalo would be 3-0 against common opponents (Toledo, BSU and Kent), while Ohio and MOFO would each be 2-1, so Buffalo would be in the MACCG vs BG.

*And is in a three-way tie with BG and Buffalo at 6-2, BG and Buffalo would be 4-0 vs the common conference opponents (Akron, BSU, Kent and Toledo) while Ohio would be 3-1, so Ohio would be eliminated. BG and Buffalo didn’t play each other, and are each 5-1 vs common opponents (the teams listed above plus WMU and NIU). Which team would play MOFO would come down to whether WMU or NIU has the better conference record. If WMU beats EMU, MBG would go to the MACCG because it beat WMU and Buffalo lost to the Broncos. If WMU and NIU are tied, NIU has the head-to-head tiebreaker, so Buffalo would go to the MACCG based on its win over NIU and BG's loss to the Huskies.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

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El Gato Roberto
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/23/2024 7:16:58 PM 
MonroeClassmate wrote:
Come on boys, BGSU beat Balls.

Update the scenarios or do you have something better to do in life?


And yet we will all pour over the with enthusiasm! Thanks fellas!!

"The name's Ohio University, but everybody calls me Ohio. Any of you guys call me Ohio U, and I'll kill you."
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/23/2024 7:17:22 PM 
BG wins, OHIO wins. Both are 7-1 and go to the MACC!

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/25/2024 7:16:40 AM 
If I understand the tiebreakers, here are the paths to the MACC still open:

Ohio- In if they win, out if they lose

Miami - In if they win
+alternate route: if Ohio and Buffalo lose (Leads to Miami-BG repeat)

BG - In if they win
+Alternate Route 1: if Ohio and Buffalo loses (leads to Miami-BG repeat)
+Alternate Route 2: Ohio loss, Buffalo win, either CMU or WMU wins (Miami-BG repeat)

Buffalo - In if they win and Ohio and Miami lose (Buffalo-BG)
+Alternate Route: they win, and Ohio, BG, CMU, and WMU all lose (Buffalo-Miami)

My assessed odds of the various possible MACC games:
Ohio versus BG = 42%
Ohio versus Miami = 28%
BG versus Buffalo = 17%
Miami versus BG = 10%
Miami versus Buffalo = 3%

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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OhioBobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/25/2024 12:24:16 PM 
OhioCatFan wrote:
BG wins, OHIO wins. Both are 7-1 and go to the MACC!


I would love to see a BG-OU matchup in the MACC! But BG might have been dealt with a potentially massive blow before facing Miami. Harold Fannin was knocked out of the Ball State game with an apparent concussion. If he can't play against Miami, that will be a crippling blow to BG. He's so heavily involved in what they do offensively that I can't see how they manage to beat Miami without him if he can't go. That might sound like an odd thing to say about a TE, but for anyone who has seen him play or how much he's used, it's not an exaggeration. I hope he can go.
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El Gato Roberto
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/29/2024 2:38:13 PM 
14 - 12 MOFO in the 4th.

"The name's Ohio University, but everybody calls me Ohio. Any of you guys call me Ohio U, and I'll kill you."
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El Gato Roberto
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  Message Not Read  RE: MAC Championship Scenarios
   Posted: 11/29/2024 2:42:18 PM 
Yikes! 21-12…that didn’t last long!

"The name's Ohio University, but everybody calls me Ohio. Any of you guys call me Ohio U, and I'll kill you."
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