Welcome Guest!
Create an Account
login email:
password:
site searchwhere to watchcontact usabout usadvertise with ushelp
Message Board

BobcatAttack.com Message Board
Ohio Football
Topic:  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo

Topic:  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
Author
Message
Deciduous Forest Cat
General User

Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Ohio
Post Count: 4,296

Status: Online

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/26/2022 4:22:33 PM 
By the way, ticket situation... 4-ticket limit?

We have yet to fill more than 2 sections in any trip to detroit, title game or bowl. What is the point of a 4 ticket limit here? Absurd.
Back to Top
  
Victory
General User

Member Since: 3/10/2012
Post Count: 1,872

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/26/2022 7:08:55 PM 
Trevor Stephens wrote:
Andrew Ruck wrote:
Victory wrote:
Anyone want to play guess the line on this? I'm normally game but I'm going to throw up my hands and be glad that it isn't my job to set it.


I think it's gonna open at Ohio -4.5 and move quickly to Ohio -7.5 or more.


Opening lines have Ohio from anywhere +4.5 to +6.

https://www.covers.com/sport/football/ncaaf/odds


I felt when we found out Rourke was out for the year that we would be around 9 point underdogs depending strongly on how Harris looked. I said so last week. Rourke's injury was probably assumed to be close to a TD in downgrading expectations if Ohio without seeing any of Harris. Then we won easily and Toledo laid their second straight egg and Finn seems to be healing slowly. That movement from 9, if I was right, is close to in line with what teams looking off from their established or assumed baseline one game might typically have.

You have to figure Ohio missing Rourke has a slighty bigger impact on us than Finn's injury had on Toledo even if Finn can't play at all. And I'm sure they would have been favored to beat us the week leading into Ohio vs. Ball State. Thus, I thought it was likely we would still be un underdog. But these significant injuries, Harris playing fairly effectively but not fantastically, and Toledo looking SO, SO AWFUL had me questioning if we might even be a small favorite.

I still don't know what to expect. I was optimistic about beating BG without Rourke and now I'm nowhere near as pessimistic about beating Toledo as I was when we heard the news about Kurtis. It feels around 50/50ish to me. If I were a betting man I think I'd take Ohio with 4.5. Six sounds like a good bet.
Back to Top
  
Andrew Ruck
General User



Member Since: 12/22/2004
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 4,668

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/26/2022 11:51:44 PM 
I am completely dumbfounded by the line. Just us being 9-3 and them being 7-5. But the trajectories of the teams...or how we played 8 MAC games and only had 1 OT loss and had 6 wins by 2 TDs+. Are they overestimating how much Toledo may have been resting the final 2 weeks? Are the severely downgrading the Bobcats without Rourke?

I'd feel good at Ohio -7. Ohio +4.5 makes me tempted to become a gambling man.


Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

Back to Top
  
Bobcat110
General User



Member Since: 3/5/2005
Location: Mount Gilead, OH
Post Count: 698

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/27/2022 9:48:45 AM 
Andrew Ruck wrote:
I am completely dumbfounded by the line. Just us being 9-3 and them being 7-5. But the trajectories of the teams...or how we played 8 MAC games and only had 1 OT loss and had 6 wins by 2 TDs+. Are they overestimating how much Toledo may have been resting the final 2 weeks? Are the severely downgrading the Bobcats without Rourke?

I'd feel good at Ohio -7. Ohio +4.5 makes me tempted to become a gambling man.


The Ohio money line +162 😳. I hope that holds until Friday.
Back to Top
  
spongeBOB CATpants
General User



Member Since: 8/16/2016
Post Count: 934

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/27/2022 10:33:21 AM 
Andrew Ruck wrote:
I am completely dumbfounded by the line. Just us being 9-3 and them being 7-5. But the trajectories of the teams...or how we played 8 MAC games and only had 1 OT loss and had 6 wins by 2 TDs+. Are they overestimating how much Toledo may have been resting the final 2 weeks? Are the severely downgrading the Bobcats without Rourke?

I'd feel good at Ohio -7. Ohio +4.5 makes me tempted to become a gambling man.


This is exactly how I feel as well. If you have been paying attention, this is free money IMO.
Back to Top
  
71 BOBCAT
General User

Member Since: 12/20/2004
Post Count: 1,852

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/27/2022 12:25:56 PM 
Toledo favored by 4.5.
What I do not understand is the following;
1) Toledo lost their last 2 games
2) Ohio has won their last 7 games
3) Both RPI & Sagarin rates us much higher
4) Ohio has 2 more wins on the season than Toldeo
5) The teams we both played against, WMU & BG we won both and Toledo lost both

Can someone please explain why Toledo is favored?



GO BOBCATS


Back to Top
  
OhioCatFan
General User



Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 14,016

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/27/2022 12:42:50 PM 

71 BOBCAT wrote:
Toledo favored by 4.5.
What I do not understand is the following;
1) Toledo lost their last 2 games
2) Ohio has won their last 7 games
3) Both RPI & Sagarin rates us much higher
4) Ohio has 2 more wins on the season than Toldeo
5) The teams we both played against, WMU & BG we won both and Toledo lost both

Can someone please explain why Toledo is favored?

GO BOBCATS 

Two possibilities:

1. The odds makers sense the same rope-a-dope I mentioned earlier that was widely dismissed by the BA intelligensia; or

2.  Toledo has the same school colors as Michigan, therefore, will be favored because Toledo really belongs in Michigan.  If you know your history, you know that proof that Ohio lost the Ohio-Michigan border war is that we had to keep Toledo.   

 


The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

Back to Top
  
Trevor Stephens
General User

Member Since: 12/13/2017
Post Count: 247

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/27/2022 5:03:35 PM 
From their board:

Toledo MAC Losses Since 2017 MACC

2018:
EMU(7-6) 26-28
Buffalo(10-4) 17-31
NIU(8-6) 15-38

2019:
BGSU(3-9) 7-20
Ball St(5-7) 14-52
NIU(5-7) 28-31
U Buffalo(8-5) 30-49
CMU(8-6) 7-49

2020:
WMU(4-2) 38-41
Ball St(7-1) 24-27

2021:
NIU(9-5) 20-22
CMU(9-4) 23-26
EMU(7-6) 49-52

2022:
Buffalo(5-5) 27-34
BGSU(6-5) 35-42

Bowls 0-3
Back to Top
  
M.D.W.S.T
General User



Member Since: 12/23/2021
Post Count: 1,717

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/27/2022 6:16:48 PM 
71 BOBCAT wrote:
Toledo favored by 4.5.
What I do not understand is the following;
1) Toledo lost their last 2 games
2) Ohio has won their last 7 games
3) Both RPI & Sagarin rates us much higher
4) Ohio has 2 more wins on the season than Toldeo
5) The teams we both played against, WMU & BG we won both and Toledo lost both

Can someone please explain why Toledo is favored?



Line has already moved to Toledo -3

Feels about right, honestly.

- Detroit will be a home game for them.

- Prior to the Finn injury I would've thought Toledo was the far superior team. Finn should be back.

- Toledo has the MAC's toughest defense.

- OU is still starting a back-up QB in his second career game, who is certainly no Rourke. OU's defense, while making stops where needed... is still ranked 100+.

- Toledo has lost the last two, they also haven't needed to win the last two. OU has been playing in must-wins for weeks.

- I figure Vegas thinks both are due (Toledo won't lose 3 in a row, OU won't win 8 in a row).

Last Edited: 11/27/2022 6:21:41 PM by M.D.W.S.T

Back to Top
  
Bobcat110
General User



Member Since: 3/5/2005
Location: Mount Gilead, OH
Post Count: 698

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/28/2022 9:16:03 AM 
Bobcat110 wrote:
Andrew Ruck wrote:
I am completely dumbfounded by the line. Just us being 9-3 and them being 7-5. But the trajectories of the teams...or how we played 8 MAC games and only had 1 OT loss and had 6 wins by 2 TDs+. Are they overestimating how much Toledo may have been resting the final 2 weeks? Are the severely downgrading the Bobcats without Rourke?

I'd feel good at Ohio -7. Ohio +4.5 makes me tempted to become a gambling man.


The Ohio money line +162 😳. I hope that holds until Friday.


And the money line is down to +115 😕
Back to Top
  
Victory
General User

Member Since: 3/10/2012
Post Count: 1,872

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/28/2022 6:39:48 PM 
71 BOBCAT wrote:
Toledo favored by 4.5.
What I do not understand is the following;
1) Toledo lost their last 2 games
2) Ohio has won their last 7 games
3) Both RPI & Sagarin rates us much higher
4) Ohio has 2 more wins on the season than Toldeo
5) The teams we both played against, WMU & BG we won both and Toledo lost both

Can someone please explain why Toledo is favored?



GO BOBCATS




I tried to go through what I think was the process in my last post in this thread. They probably are getting 0.5 to 1.0 points of home field advantage. They would have been a small favorite to beat us 3 or 4 weeks ago assuming Finn and Rourke were 100% and nothing else major happened. Since then we have lost the likely MAC PoY. That's huge. I basically resets this whole seven game winning streak talk. We are evaluated as a different team. That probably degraded us about a TD a oddsmaker expectation. All other things being equal on changes since three weeks ago that would put the line around Toledo -9. Harris looked good last week so we probably get a couple points of that 7 point downgrade back. Say -7.

Toledo has played quite poorly since then with Finn being a statue or not playing at all. That downgrades Toledo from three weeks ago quite a bit too. Like I said the the Bowling Green thread we would have been about -12 against them with Rourke and the line was probably an average of all possibilities on Rourke's status. When they found out he couldn't go it went from, I think, -7 to -5. The same will happen with Finn. If it gets out he can't go, since Ohio with Harris has looked better than Toledo's backups, we might be favored. If it gets out with reliability that he's 100% it won't jump all the way back up to -7 since Toledo can't blame all of their issues the past few weeks on just that alone. Bowling Green put up some yards on their defense and they have some Oline issues. But it would probably go back to being in the 4 point range - which is about where it started.

This is a lot more difficult than guessing what a line would be most weeks. Like I said, I was glad that it wasn't my job. FWIW, a lot of Rockets are wondering the same thing that a lot of Bobcats are.

https://www.csnbbs.com/thread-960298.html

Last Edited: 11/28/2022 6:44:35 PM by Victory

Back to Top
  
Trevor Stephens
General User

Member Since: 12/13/2017
Post Count: 247

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/28/2022 8:50:41 PM 
Weekly Press Conference:

Ohio - https://ohiobobcats.com/news/2022/11/28/ohio-football-vs-...

Toledo - https://utrockets.com/sports/football?path=football (scroll down until video tab)

Radio Show:

Ohio - https://portal.stretchinternet.com/ohio/portal.htm?eventI...

Game Notes:

Ohio - https://ohiobobcats.com/documents/2022/11/29/ohio_fb_1203...

Toledo - https://utrockets.com/documents/2022/11/29/13._Toledo_Gam...

Last Edited: 11/29/2022 1:02:30 PM by Trevor Stephens

Back to Top
  
L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,052

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/29/2022 1:10:10 AM 
Interestingly, over the last six games, there were 4 common foes, as both teams played Buffalo, BG, Ball State, and WMU. If you compare how they did against those four foes, Ohio's offense gained an average of 417 yards/game, while Toledo gained an average of 423, virtually identical numbers, though Ohio's yards were more skewed towards rushes. Defensively the story is the same. Against those four foes, Ohio gave up 322 yards, while Toledo gave up a nearly identical 331. Defensively, Ohio gave up more yards passing and less rushing against those four than Toledo, but the total was about the same.

While yardages gained/given up were nearly identical, points were not. Against those four teams, Ohio won by an average of 37-18, while Toledo lost by an average of 29-26. The difference? Against those four foes, Ohio averaged +2.75 in turnovers, while Toledo was -2.5 in turnovers. My conclusion is that turnovers may well decide this game.

If it's not turnovers, my guess is that Toledo will hold Ohio to about 360 yards, and 28 point. For Ohio to win, they need to hold Toledo to under 90 yards rushing, and force them to pass, then get after the QB, and not let him throw for over 250 yards. My prediction is that Ohio wins, 27-21.

Last Edited: 11/29/2022 1:17:25 AM by L.C.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

Back to Top
  
OhioCatFan
General User



Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 14,016

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/29/2022 11:24:15 AM 
L.C. wrote:
Interestingly, over the last six games, there were 4 common foes, as both teams played Buffalo, BG, Ball State, and WMU. If you compare how they did against those four foes, Ohio's offense gained an average of 417 yards/game, while Toledo gained an average of 423, virtually identical numbers, though Ohio's yards were more skewed towards rushes. Defensively the story is the same. Against those four foes, Ohio gave up 322 yards, while Toledo gave up a nearly identical 331. Defensively, Ohio gave up more yards passing and less rushing against those four than Toledo, but the total was about the same.

While yardages gained/given up were nearly identical, points were not. Against those four teams, Ohio won by an average of 37-18, while Toledo lost by an average of 29-26. The difference? Against those four foes, Ohio averaged +2.75 in turnovers, while Toledo was -2.5 in turnovers. My conclusion is that turnovers may well decide this game.

If it's not turnovers, my guess is that Toledo will hold Ohio to about 360 yards, and 28 point. For Ohio to win, they need to hold Toledo to under 90 yards rushing, and force them to pass, then get after the QB, and not let him throw for over 250 yards. My prediction is that Ohio wins, 27-21.


Interesting analysis, as always. Thanks for posting.


The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

Back to Top
  
ShoreCat
General User

Member Since: 3/10/2011
Location: Avon Lake, OH
Post Count: 206

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/29/2022 11:37:47 AM 
Here's my oversimplified analysis. We will find out early how close this game will be. If Finn is mobile and can run effectively, it's going to be close. We will have to put more than 20 on the board. If he can't and UT is forced to pass, we win by 2 TD's or more.

Seeing my first game in person last week against BUGS and I loved how aggressive the defense was. As so many others have pointed out, it's an unreal turnaround from the beginning of the year.

This team is hungry to get this done.
Back to Top
  
CatsUp
General User

Member Since: 4/15/2019
Post Count: 726

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/29/2022 12:51:02 PM 
I’m beginning to notice that as I see the title of this thread again and again, related posts, and the game gets closer, I’m having these steadily increasing in intensity queasy feelings. Not excitement, nor dread. Just queasiness. Probably need to take longer walks. :)
Back to Top
  
Ted Thompson
Administrator



Member Since: 11/11/2004
Location: MAC Play
Post Count: 7,383

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/29/2022 4:22:49 PM 


Follow Ohio Football recruiting on the BobcatAttack.com football recruiting database.

Back to Top
  
M.D.W.S.T
General User



Member Since: 12/23/2021
Post Count: 1,717

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/29/2022 4:54:12 PM 
CatsUp wrote:
I’m beginning to notice that as I see the title of this thread again and again, related posts, and the game gets closer, I’m having these steadily increasing in intensity queasy feelings. Not excitement, nor dread. Just queasiness. Probably need to take longer walks. :)


I hear ya.

Like I said in this thread, pre-injuries to both teams... I think Toledo was clearly the better team. Toledo's defense (outside that snow bowl vs BG) is Top 25 in the country.

With Rourke, I'm not nervous at all.

With CJ... jury is out. They're gonna force him to throw. Lucky for OU, they have the best WR trio in the MAC. If the ball gets within 3 feet of Wigs, he's coming down with it. If you get Jacoby space, hes gone. If you throw it up to Bostic, he's wrestling it from anyone.

Ultimately, for Toledo it's gonna come down to what Finn shows up.

For OU, what defense do we see? Can CJ make a couple big throws to keep the running game powering?
Back to Top
  
brucecuth
General User

Member Since: 12/21/2004
Post Count: 1,792

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/29/2022 6:52:51 PM 
71 BOBCAT wrote:
Toledo favored by 4.5.
What I do not understand is the following;
1) Toledo lost their last 2 games
2) Ohio has won their last 7 games
3) Both RPI & Sagarin rates us much higher
4) Ohio has 2 more wins on the season than Toldeo
5) The teams we both played against, WMU & BG we won both and Toledo lost both

Can someone please explain why Toledo is favored?



GO BOBCATS

Interesting, my book opened us Monday morning +1, now +1.5. Give me 'Cats + 4.5 and I'll say, "Yes, please!"


Back to Top
  
Kevin Finnegan
General User

Member Since: 2/4/2005
Location: Rockton, IL
Post Count: 1,080

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/29/2022 7:09:23 PM 
Am I correct that a win on Saturday would not only give us the MAC Championship but also the first FBS regular season where OHIO reached double-digits in wins? We reached 10 wins in 2011, but the 10th win was in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The 1960 team that went 10-0 was in a lower division at that point, right?
Back to Top
  
Campus Flow
General User



Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Alexandria, VA
Post Count: 4,951

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/29/2022 8:12:25 PM 
Kevin Finnegan wrote:
Am I correct that a win on Saturday would not only give us the MAC Championship but also the first FBS regular season where OHIO reached double-digits in wins? We reached 10 wins in 2011, but the 10th win was in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The 1960 team that went 10-0 was in a lower division at that point, right?


1968 had 10 regular season wins without a championship game. That was university division. 1960 was college division the FCS of the time.


Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

Back to Top
  
Mac
General User

Member Since: 2/27/2020
Post Count: 10

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo (NT)
   Posted: 11/29/2022 8:37:42 PM 

Last Edited: 11/29/2022 8:46:58 PM by Mac

Back to Top
  
Catdoog
General User

Member Since: 2/28/2012
Post Count: 4

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/30/2022 8:30:19 AM 
For me:

Ohio Miami Football 1968 24-7
Ohio Purdue Basketball Dec 1969 80-79 (PU ranked #3
Ohio BG Basketball Feb 28, 1970 for MAC title 77-76 Convo was over 14,000
Back to Top
  
OhioBobcat
General User

Member Since: 1/20/2006
Post Count: 1,541

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/30/2022 9:49:19 AM 
M.D.W.S.T wrote:
CatsUp wrote:
I’m beginning to notice that as I see the title of this thread again and again, related posts, and the game gets closer, I’m having these steadily increasing in intensity queasy feelings. Not excitement, nor dread. Just queasiness. Probably need to take longer walks. :)


I hear ya.

Like I said in this thread, pre-injuries to both teams... I think Toledo was clearly the better team. Toledo's defense (outside that snow bowl vs BG) is Top 25 in the country.

With Rourke, I'm not nervous at all.

With CJ... jury is out. They're gonna force him to throw. Lucky for OU, they have the best WR trio in the MAC. If the ball gets within 3 feet of Wigs, he's coming down with it. If you get Jacoby space, hes gone. If you throw it up to Bostic, he's wrestling it from anyone.

Ultimately, for Toledo it's gonna come down to what Finn shows up.

For OU, what defense do we see? Can CJ make a couple big throws to keep the running game powering?


In response to Finn, he might not even play, and if he does, he’s still hurt. He was horrendous last week vs WMU and clearly still can’t move on that ankle and he was pulled from the game and was back in a walking boot on the sidelines. He’s not going to heal in a week after still laboring from what he’s been dealing with for a month now. He’s never been the QB he was prior to the Buffalo game. Harris is going to be fine. If they make him throw, he can throw. If he’s able to run, he will gut them with it. If Toledo is not prepared for the speed option, Ohio won’t even need to worry about passing the ball. For the first couple drives vs BG, Ohio ran at them and was stopped. As soon as Ohio ran spread option in what was the 3 offensive possessions or so, it was over as BG had no idea how to play it. They weren’t prepared as their guys weren’t sure of their assignments. Jason Candle was just commenting the other day how there’s very little film to prepare for Harris and what Ohio may do with Harris in addition to the base schemes. This is what makes Harris a huge wildcard for Ohio because Toledo won’t be able to fully prep for what’s coming. This is the silver lining Harris provides. Gleason has played several games and you know what you’re going to get facing him.
Back to Top
  
Ted Thompson
Administrator



Member Since: 11/11/2004
Location: MAC Play
Post Count: 7,383

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Official MAC Championship Game Thread: Toledo
   Posted: 11/30/2022 9:54:21 AM 

 


Follow Ohio Football recruiting on the BobcatAttack.com football recruiting database.

Back to Top
  
Showing Replies:  51 - 75  of 179 Posts
Jump to Page:  < Previous    1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8    Next >
View Other 'Ohio Football' Topics
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             







Copyright ©2024 BobcatAttack.com. All rights reserved.  |  Privacy Policy  |  Terms of Use
Partner of USA TODAY Sports Digital Properties