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Topic: Chance of winning MAC

Topic: Chance of winning MAC

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Jim G
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Athens, OH
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Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/9/2014 1:09:11 PM

Got this from rpiforecast.com

Toledo - 29.21

Buffalo- 20.03

Western- 19.65

OHIO - 11.69

Akron - 10.04

Eastern - 7.91

Kent - 0.66

Miami - 0.29

NIU - 0.27

BGSU - 0.23

Central - 0.01

Ball St - 0.00

ts1227
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Member Since: 2/28/2006
Location: Tallmadge, OH
Post Count: 873

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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/9/2014 2:33:25 PM

Here's what I found at teamrankings.com (not sure how reputable it is)

Toledo - 33.25%
WMU - 19.83%
Buffalo - 14.99%
Akron - 12.85%
Ohio - 10%
EMU - 6.14%
Kent - 1.55%
BG - 0.54%
NIU - 0.4%
Miami - 0.36%
CMU - 0.08%
Ball - 0.02%

They also do round-by-round survival odds
http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/conference-tournaments/mi.../

Monroe Slavin
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/9/2014 4:52:13 PM

If we win the next five, close to 100%. If we don't win the next five, not as close.

Where's the band?!
WHERE"S THE BAND?!

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bobcat2nc
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/9/2014 7:51:43 PM

oops..double posted

Last Edited: 3/9/2014 8:01:44 PM by bobcat2nc

bobcat2nc
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/9/2014 8:01:09 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

If we win the next five, close to 100%. If we don't win the next five, not as close.

The chance of Kick Kellogg tying the record for most Bobcat basketball games played is exactly the same as this. Go Cats!!!

JSF
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Member Since: 1/29/2005
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/9/2014 8:02:33 PM

Ken Pomeroy, your thoughts? http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/mac_log51

"Loyalty to a hometown or city is fleeting and interchangeable, but college is a stamp of identity."- Kyle Whelliston, One Beautiful Season.

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Andrew Ruck
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/9/2014 8:49:08 PM

Ball State at .005%. That means if we did the MAC tourney 20,000 times, they would win once.

And yet, the curse of the convo this season has me terrified of losing to them tomorrow.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

Alan Swank
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Location: Athens, OH
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/9/2014 9:04:57 PM

JSF wrote:

Ken Pomeroy, your thoughts? http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/mac_log51

Not a fan of the double and triple bye. We may be the only conference in America that does this.

mcbin
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Columbus, OH
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/9/2014 9:26:07 PM

Alan Swank wrote:

JSF wrote:

Ken Pomeroy, your thoughts? http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/mac_log51

Not a fan of the double and triple bye. We may be the only conference in America that does this.

The double & triple does seem somewhat extreme, but I do think it makes the regular season much more important. I'm ok with it, but do know it puts 5-12 in a hole that is near impossible to climb out of. But being a one bid league, it does make good sense to stack the deck in the best teams' favor.

With coaches past, I really thought the effort was not there day in day out, and the focus was peaking at the right time. That sucks if you like to attend a lot of regular season games. So for that reason, sweetening the pot for regular season winners works.

Selfishly, I miss more, the full tourney being in Cleveland. The day of 4 MAC games is(was) about as good as it gets.

UpSan Bobcat
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/9/2014 9:35:24 PM

Alan Swank wrote:

JSF wrote:

Ken Pomeroy, your thoughts? http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/mac_log51

Not a fan of the double and triple bye. We may be the only conference in America that does this.

Were you more of a fan the last two years?

SBH
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/9/2014 10:00:24 PM

Alan Swank wrote:

JSF wrote:

Ken Pomeroy, your thoughts? http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/mac_log51

Not a fan of the double and triple bye. We may be the only conference in America that does this.

Remember when a Billy Hahn squad had to play two games in ONE DAY?

Andrew Ruck
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Location: Columbus, OH
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/9/2014 10:13:21 PM

I like the idea of the set up, but I hate the HUGE drop off from 4 to 5, and its really hitting home this year. If you really want to make the regular season count from top to bottom, have 5 & 6 get a single bye and have 11 & 12 not make the tourney.

1-2 - Bye to Semis

3-4 - Bye to Quarterfinals

5-6 - Bye to 2nd Round

7-8 - Home game in 1st Round

9-10 - Road game in 1st Round

11-12 - Do not make the tourney

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

JSF
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/9/2014 10:58:28 PM

On the other end of the spectrum, you have the America East. Vermont, a quite good team, won the league. They had to play their tournament on the road and lost today. And they're not a bad road team; they nearly beat Dook in Cameron.

Jeff McKinney
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/10/2014 9:13:12 AM

Doesn't the Horizon have a comparable setup for their postseason tournament? I think we borrowed the idea from them.

I'm all for giving teams byes as a reward for finishing high in the standings. We benefitted from the format last year. But the league may want to consider reformatting with a less extreme bye structure. We'll see if that happens.

bobcatsquared
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/10/2014 9:33:32 AM

Jeff, I was thinking of the old Big East. Something similar, if not identical.

Didn't UConn win something like 5 straight games in the Big East tournament one year before going on and winning the NCAA?

Last Edited: 3/10/2014 9:34:51 AM by bobcatsquared

Jeff McKinney
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/10/2014 9:59:02 AM

I thought it was Syracuse. UConn may have done the same thing.

I remember Syracuse had a white shooter who really went off on that five game run.

UpSan Bobcat
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/10/2014 10:18:32 AM

The difference was the Big East had 16 teams, so eight teams had to win five games, four teams got one bye and had to win four games and four more got byes to the quarterfinals and had to win three games. It doesn't set up the same with 12 teams.

bornacatfan
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/10/2014 10:21:01 AM

Alan Swank wrote:

Not a fan of the double and triple bye. We may be the only conference in America that does this.

Yeah.....that's the ticket. NO research, no question. Just an uninformed statement thrown out there for consumption. You actually think Dambrot and Ford are smart enough to think of that on their own? Sorry, they stole the idea hombre.

never argue with idiots, they bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.

Winter comes and asks how you spent your summer.....

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PalmerFest
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/10/2014 10:28:10 AM

Jeff McKinney wrote:

I thought it was Syracuse. UConn may have done the same thing.

I remember Syracuse had a white shooter who really went off on that five game run.

Gerry McNamara. He went beast mode in 2006 BE tourney.

OU_Country
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Member Since: 12/6/2005
Location: On the road between Athens and Madison County
Post Count: 8,370

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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/10/2014 10:56:40 AM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

1-2 - Bye to Semis

3-4 - Bye to Quarterfinals

5-6 - Bye to 2nd Round

7-8 - Home game in 1st Round

9-10 - Road game in 1st Round

11-12 - Do not make the tourney

Personally, I like this idea, solely from the angle that it could allow two opening round sessions in Cleveland.

JSF
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Member Since: 1/29/2005
Location: Houston, TX
Post Count: 6,554

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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/10/2014 1:51:33 PM

bobcatsquared wrote:

Yep, 2011.

100%Cat
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/10/2014 2:03:24 PM

The drop off from 4 to 5 seed is huge, but I actually like it. It is sort of like an incentive, a motivational force to make you desperately try to get a top 4 seed. We had every chance to do it, we blew it. Depending on help from Buffalo and/or Kent should have never been necessary. It is what it is, now we have to win 5 to go dancing. No excuses, let's just get it done! Nobody in this conference is unbeatable.

Dexcat
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/10/2014 4:35:30 PM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

1-2 - Bye to Semis

3-4 - Bye to Quarterfinals

5-6 - Bye to 2nd Round

7-8 - Home game in 1st Round

9-10 - Road game in 1st Round

11-12 - Do not make the tourney

I really like this format as well. Still rewards the regular season and creates an even competitive format for everyone else.

LuckySparrow
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Location: Illinois
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/10/2014 5:32:31 PM

With the current crappy format of the MAC Tourney, the cards are stacked against us. We do have a couple magicians on the team, though.

What a day at the Convo.....Wow!

Only one OHIO
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Avon, OH
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RE: Chance of winning MAC

Posted: 3/10/2014 9:48:05 PM

Dexcat wrote:

Andrew Ruck wrote:

1-2 - Bye to Semis

3-4 - Bye to Quarterfinals

5-6 - Bye to 2nd Round

7-8 - Home game in 1st Round

9-10 - Road game in 1st Round

11-12 - Do not make the tourney

I really like this format as well. Still rewards the regular season and creates an even competitive format for everyone else.

I like this better as well. Still it was fun before the byes when you could go down on Thursday and see 4 games.

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