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Topic: Ken Pomeroy's Conference Simulations

Topic: Ken Pomeroy's Conference Simulations

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Eagle66
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Member Since: 3/13/2005
Post Count: 1,329

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Ken Pomeroy's Conference Simulations

Posted: 1/1/2014 5:55:24 PM

Link to to kenpom.com blog

Quote:

This is part two of my look at every conference race using a Monte Carlo and my current ratings for each team. The listed numbers are how many simulations each team won out of 10000, so divide that number by 100 to get the percent chance I am giving each team of winning the one-seed for its conference tournament. (Note: not all teams listed are eligible for their conference tournament, so in some cases it’s a mythical one-seed.) If a team isn’t listed, I didn’t forget about them - they didn’t win a single simulation.

Conferences are ordered from least to most competitive. I’ll tackle the ten-most competitive conference races in the final part tomorrow. The following results include all games played through yesterday.

Quote:

19. MAC

The pick: Toledo. The Rockets’ unbeaten run ended at Kansas on Monday night, but their streak of scoring at least 1.08 PPP in every game didn’t.

The contrarian pick: Eastern Michigan. Rob Murphy’s team has been the surprise of the conference so far, and convincing wins over Green Bay and Cleveland State are solid evidence that they’ll win a few games in league play.

Toledo 5087

Ohio 2264

Akron 818

Eastern Michigan 573

Western Michigan 440

Buffalo 403

Kent St. 334

Bowling Green 64

Miami OH 13

Ball St. 4

Northern Illinois 2

Last Edited: 1/1/2014 5:57:16 PM by Eagle66

bobcat2nc
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Member Since: 12/28/2004
Post Count: 584

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RE: Ken Pomeroy's Conference Simulations

Posted: 1/1/2014 7:09:41 PM

PPP? In reference to Toledo?

Lande71
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Member Since: 9/19/2010
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RE: Ken Pomeroy's Conference Simulations

Posted: 1/1/2014 7:18:50 PM

points per possession?

anorris
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Member Since: 7/6/2010
Location: Bristol, CT
Post Count: 2,262

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RE: Ken Pomeroy's Conference Simulations

Posted: 1/1/2014 7:26:36 PM

Lande71 wrote:

points per possession?

Correct.

The Optimist
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Member Since: 3/16/2007
Location: CLE
Post Count: 5,597

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RE: Ken Pomeroy's Conference Simulations

Posted: 1/1/2014 9:55:31 PM

I am curious how these numbers would play out if we could isolate the fact that our divisional crossover opponents rank #1 and #4 in this simulation while Toledo's are #2 and #8 (bg)

Toledo 5087
Ohio 2264
Akron 818
Eastern Michigan 573
...
Bowling Green 64

No doubt about it, the fact that we got the West's two best teams as divisional doubles is a bummer but I think this team is up for it. Hopefully MAC play goes more like Richmond and less like Oakland.

A birdie to open at Kent would be HUGE.

Last Edited: 1/1/2014 9:56:14 PM by The Optimist

I've seen crazier things happen.

bornacatfan
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Member Since: 8/3/2006
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RE: Ken Pomeroy's Conference Simulations

Posted: 1/2/2014 12:04:49 AM

The Optimist wrote:

No doubt about it, the fact that we got the West's two best teams as divisional doubles is a bummer but I think this team is up for it.
.

Want to be the best ya gotta play the best....so then we get 2 wins ....and then we got to endure the ever present folks who preach what happens when the 2 meet for the third time. "well it;s hard to beat a team 3 times in a season"

never argue with idiots, they bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.

Winter comes and asks how you spent your summer.....

The game loves and rewards those who love and reward the game

anorris
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Member Since: 7/6/2010
Location: Bristol, CT
Post Count: 2,262

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RE: Ken Pomeroy's Conference Simulations

Posted: 1/2/2014 10:59:52 AM

bornacatfan wrote:

The Optimist wrote:

No doubt about it, the fact that we got the West's two best teams as divisional doubles is a bummer but I think this team is up for it.
.

I agree with borna, I don't necessarily think it's a bad thing. Good battles in conference toughen you up for tournament time, and we are always complaining about the west tanking our RPI... Well, on that front, we have the right teams doubled up.

bobcat2nc
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Member Since: 12/28/2004
Post Count: 584

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RE: Ken Pomeroy's Conference Simulations

Posted: 1/2/2014 1:57:23 PM

Thanks for the answer to my question. For some reason my brain would not function at that time.

OUVan
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Bethesda, MD
Post Count: 5,580

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RE: Ken Pomeroy's Conference Simulations

Posted: 1/2/2014 3:42:11 PM

As good as Toledo has been on offense they have been nearly as bad on defense. They are #254 in defensive PPP at 1.071. In contrast we are #51 at 0.934. Their perimeter defense has been horrid with teams shooting over 40% from three against them. But their offensive metrics are absurdly good. They play at a high tempo and don't turn the ball over (10th nationally in turnover %).

perimeterpost
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Member Since: 7/6/2010
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RE: Ken Pomeroy's Conference Simulations

Posted: 1/2/2014 5:57:50 PM

I don't know how much credence to give to Kenpom, I hear him referenced a lot in the beginning of seasons but I never seem to remember hearing much about how his predictions panned out.

MY STATE. MY TEAM.

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