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Topic: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Topic: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

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Andrew Ruck
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Member Since: 12/22/2004
Location: Columbus, OH
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MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/13/2013 12:59:17 PM

From this site - http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/mac-conference-tournament-odds

Ohio -130
Akron +180
Kent +650
WMU +1,200
Bufalo +5,000
Ball St +20,000
EMU +20,000
Miami +30,000

Doesn't that seem like a bad bet for Ohio? Gamblers please correct me if I am wrong, but that means you have to bet $130 on Ohio just to win $100. Throwing $100 on Kent for a chance at $650 seems like a good deal, or $100 on Buffalo for a chance at 5 large.

Interesting to see just how much we have been labelled the favorite after the Abreu thing

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

JSF
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/13/2013 1:12:13 PM

You are correct. Kent is way underrated by Vegas.

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DayvidGallagher
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/13/2013 1:13:30 PM

Unfortunately my book doesn't have Futures for the MAC tournament but you are correct in your interpretations of how the payouts work.

Also yes, Kent and Buffalo are good bets in my mind as well. Ohio is an awful bet, I would never take us as minus anything. To be honest I think all of the teams should be + in our conference for this bet with several in the +130-+200 range.

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BillyTheCat
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/13/2013 1:16:54 PM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

That's a bad bet for a gambler, no money made in taking the chalk.

ClevelandCat '11
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/13/2013 1:23:28 PM

Keep in mind this was probably set to generate more bets. They know money will come in for Ohio so they put some other teams with longer odds to generate some action. Ohio must be the heavy favorite in the early betting

C Money
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/13/2013 1:40:28 PM

Ball State +20,000???

bobcat695
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/13/2013 2:56:10 PM

I will likely bet on Kent just because the odds are right. I just hope the odds are similar when I land in Vegas tomorrow afternoon.

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The Optimist
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/13/2013 5:08:36 PM

Wait, so I can put in $130 and walk out with $230 a couple days later?!?

I've seen crazier things happen.

ClevelandCat '11
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/13/2013 5:41:10 PM

The Optimist wrote:

Wait, so I can put in $130 and walk out with $230 a couple days later?!?

If you were in Vegas, yes you are correct. Unfortunately sports gambling is illegal in Ohio or else I might be taking a flyer on our chances Friday afternoon at Horseshoe!

GoCats105
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/13/2013 5:54:42 PM

C Money wrote:

Ball State +20,000???

I might take this action. 20 large for a long shot, but crazier things have happened in the MAC tournament.

mcbin
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/13/2013 6:00:50 PM

The Optimist wrote:

Wait, so I can put in $130 and walk out with $230 a couple days later?!?

FWIW

sportsbook.com has

Akron +125
Kent +600
Ohio -110
WMU +1000
Field +500

Agree with most, Kent seems like the best for your money. Ohio's gonna win though so it's not ;) For entertainment purposes only.

UpSan Bobcat
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/13/2013 6:40:09 PM

I'm in general agreement with everyone here, but you have to consider that Kent State has to win three straight games that might all be basically 50/50 games. If so, Kent State has a 1 in 8 chance of winning three in a row. Buffalo and Ball State have to win four in a row, so if you give them 50/50 odds, their chances are just 1 in 16 of winning the tournament. Of course, you can dispute the 50/50 odds, but even if you changed to 60/40 for one or multiple games, it doesn't change the total probability very much.

bornacatfan
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/13/2013 8:44:55 PM

C Money wrote:

Ball State +20,000???

Probably should have had that one even bigger.

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Andrew Ruck
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/13/2013 9:29:46 PM

mcbin wrote:

FWIW

sportsbook.com has

Akron +125
Kent +600
Ohio -110
WMU +1000
Field +500

This makes more sense...But still a bad bet for Ohio and good one for Kent.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

Chicken George
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/13/2013 10:27:16 PM

Agreed--not a good bet if you're wanting to take OHIO. -110 and you have to win two games, when you probably could just bet the Championship Game and only have to pick one game right to get your money, especially considering if it's Akron it will probably be a very small line one way or the other.

BTW, if it's OHIO vs. Akron in the Championship, any thoughts on what that line would be? I was thinking something like Akron -1.5, but these odds must mean we would be the favorites.

bobcat695
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/13/2013 10:58:51 PM

Last year was Ohio -1.5 in the championship. DJ missed two FTs in the last 2 seconds and we won by 1. I watched the whole thing from Caesars Palace sports book with around $400 on the Cats. I've never been so happy and so extremely pissed at the same time. I'd expect Ohio to be a 2.5 point favorite vs Akron or Kent in the championship game this year.

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BillyTheCat
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/13/2013 10:59:09 PM

Chicken George wrote:

I agree betting the money line when you are talking about multiple games is risky. An Ohio v Akron match up would give you maybe an even money game or at worse a +3/-3 pick.

HeHateMiami
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/13/2013 11:03:31 PM

Chicken George wrote:

I was gonna say something similar that you'd be better off just betting Ohio game-by-game.

As for your question, Vegas got burned big on the Akron -8 over Kent line last week that never moved even after the suspension was announced. Me thinks they'll realize what losing Abreu means now and over correct. It'll depend on how each team looks in the semis, but I'd guess the line would look more like OHIO -2.

BillyTheCat
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/14/2013 12:44:22 AM

HeHateMiami wrote:

Chicken George wrote:

Money moves lines on games not injury reports or discipline. Now granted on a big game, injuries and suspensions move money on big games, but lines are set based on money.

HeHateMiami
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/14/2013 10:17:49 AM

BillyTheCat wrote:

HeHateMiami wrote:

Chicken George wrote:

Money moves lines on games not injury reports or discipline. Now granted on a big game, injuries and suspensions move money on big games, but lines are set based on money.

You're crazy. The exact reason that there's an injury report in professional football is so the gamblers have accurate lines. Yes, money moves lines, but the availability of players is usually what sets them. The Abreu suspension was announced after Akron v Kent opened, and there was no adjustment. Maybe not enough big money players caught on to make money off of it, but that line staying where it was, was certainly a miss.

BillyTheCat
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/14/2013 11:19:00 AM

HeHateMiami wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

HeHateMiami wrote:

Chicken George wrote:

Money moves lines on games not injury reports or discipline. Now granted on a big game, injuries and suspensions move money on big games, but lines are set based on money.

No, the injury report does not move lines, it's the money played and only the money played. Vegas sole goal is to make the action profitable, not pick who will actually win the contest.

The Akron v. Kent game is not a miss, it was simply an example of what I am talking about, only money moves the line, and a MAC game rarely has enough Vegas play to move lines. If that would have been a Big 10 or Big East 1st place team with that suspension the line would have been moved, not because Vegas is not paying attention to the injury report, but because the gamblers would be loading up on the injury news, and this in turn would adjust the line.

BillyTheCat
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/14/2013 11:22:46 AM

BillyTheCat wrote:

HeHateMiami wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

HeHateMiami wrote:

Chicken George wrote:

Money moves lines on games not injury reports or discipline. Now granted on a big game, injuries and suspensions move money on big games, but lines are set based on money.

From an HBO show on the topic two years ago:

"Do the odds in Vegas come out of actual predictions about who will win, or are they more of a prediction of how people will bet? If someone is a 4-1 favorite, is that because Vegas actually thinks they're a 4-1 favorite, or they just think that will result in the most even betting? Is it different for different sports?"

"The betting lines start as a guess and get validated by the masses. The house is incentivized to minimize payouts. They do that by offsetting each side of the bet against the other while making money off the rake in the middle. The closer they get to even odds (as determined by the masses) the higher their rake will be with respect to any discrepancy to one side or the other of the line.

The market forces this. Without it, there would be arbitrage opportunities, right?"

Monroe Slavin
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/14/2013 12:06:48 PM

Let's say you own a casino. Do you set the line about some feeling, some thinking about who's going to win or do you set it so that you'll make the most money? Please be businesslike in your analysis. [Hint, some of those casino buildings are said to cost about a billion dollars. Might that be allowed because these guys know how to make the dollars?]

I encourage everyone to wager huge amounts on these games.

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HeHateMiami
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/14/2013 12:23:01 PM

BillyTheCat wrote:

No, the injury report does not move lines, it's the money played and only the money played. Vegas sole goal is to make the action profitable, not pick who will actually win the contest.

How do you think Vegas determines an opening line before any money is played? By evaluating the teams and handicapping the games. The injury reports play a *HUGE* part in that.

And you're right, mostly Vegas is trying to split action between two sides, because that's where they minimize risk, and profit. But they're also not afraid to take a side on a game when they feel strong about the number that their handicapping system spits out.

Last Edited: 3/14/2013 12:32:22 PM by HeHateMiami

HeHateMiami
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RE: MAC Tournament Vegas Odds

Posted: 3/14/2013 12:31:42 PM

HeHateMiami wrote:

How do you think Vegas determines an opening line before any money is played? By evaluating the teams and handicapping the games. The injury reports play a *HUGE* part in that.

Which comes back to my initial point. The Akron/Kent game was handicapped with Abreu seemingly available and opened at Kent +8. When it was announced that Abreu was suspended they didn't adjust the line or take the game off the board (which often happens with bigger sports... think NFL games when starting QBs are hurt and undergoing MRIs and their status is unknown for the next Sunday. Those games often times get taken off the board for a few days so Vegas can adjust their handicap with that seemingly new information).

The line never really adjusted, closing somewhere between Kent +7.5 and Kent +8.5 depending on the book. Wiseguys who follow this sort of stuff and bet millions of dollars on sports each year, noticed the Abreu suspension, bet Kent +8, and made bank. It's really not rocket science, the MAC is a small league and they ran with a bad number. It happens. It's why wiseguys focus on small conferences and less prestigious sports a lot, it's easier to take advantage of what Vegas doesn't know.

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