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Topic: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Topic: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

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FearLeon
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Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/25/2022 7:15:15 PM

It’s now been 29 games.

This is now a season long slump.

He should have been coming off the bench many games ago.

#BleedGreen #TrentIsGOAT

Bobcat1998
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/25/2022 7:17:03 PM

FearLeon wrote:

It’s now been 29 games.

This is now a season long slump.

He should have been coming off the bench many games ago.

WHY IS EZUMA NOT PLAYING MORE???

100%Cat
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/25/2022 8:55:16 PM

I was in the stands early for the senior night festivities. I watched BRick shooting before he was even dressed. His shooting woes aren’t just at game time. I could tell watching him get loose that he wasn’t going to have an impact tonight. Sure enough: 2 points.

Bobcat1998
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/25/2022 9:14:47 PM

100%Cat wrote:

So strange. His shot looks bad from the release. Did he lift too many weights? He is a tremendous young man who still plays with passion. He may just have the yips but his shot looks awful.

MonroeClassmate
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/25/2022 10:19:31 PM

Arnie said, "Sometimes the swing goes awry and instead of trying to practice through it when there is a risk of developing bad muscle memory and losing your confidence--you need to step away."

Perhaps time for him to not shoot another three in practice or warm ups or the remaining games or at Ping till he arrives in Cleveland. Just practice the fundamentals inside of 15 feet.

But don't blame his lack of scoring--Akron scored 90 plus NINTY NINTY NINTY when they have been averaging mid-60's. The DEFENSE SUCKS.

GraffZ06
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/26/2022 1:16:44 PM

My .02? Yes he should still be starting because we have nobody else (unless you think Towns or Olumide are ready).

*insert my broken record complaint of begging for a 3 and D wing player with some length*

Can not start Tommy for BRod. That's 3 guys under 6'1 on the floor. If Tommy is starting it would have to be in place of Miles. You just can't win that way in HS let alone here. At that point you are giving up so much in defense and rebounding that you're basically conceding giving up 80+ every night. Only way to overcome that is to just outscore folks with amazing 3pt shooting (like 42-45% +).

Does any of that sound like the m.o. of this team? Quite the opposite. We win by playing solid defense and slowing it down to save our short rotation, keeping opponent in the 60s.Then winning the FT/TO/Reb battle in spite of our shooting.

Sitting BRod at this point is rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

Our season will go as far as Mark Sears against quality opponents and BRod shooting will take us. My gut says that's Friday night in Cleveland.

Victory
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/26/2022 8:36:39 PM

GraffZ06 wrote:

Our season will go as far as Mark Sears against quality opponents and BRod shooting will take us. My gut says that's Friday night in Cleveland.

That would leave us with 26 wins, assuming we don't lose again before then, and most probably in the CBI. It doesn't seem that a 26 win MAC team would usually end up there. The second division of the MAC is just historically awful, we didn't get a Q1 win, we rarely crush those awful teams even if we literally never play a close game either, and we have had our heads handed to us in nearly all of our losses. I think that adds up to a CBI berth at this point.

But if we can make a run in a lesser tournament we could easily have the second best or even the best win total in school history.

GraffZ06
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/26/2022 10:17:03 PM

I agree with all that. The NIT is no longer plausible. It's get the auto-bid, get BVP and JC a couple extra games in the CBI or call it a season IMO.

FearLeon
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/27/2022 10:11:40 AM

GraffZ06 wrote:

I agree with all that. The NIT is no longer plausible. It's get the auto-bid, get BVP and JC a couple extra games in the CBI or call it a season IMO.

Obviously, it's up to the program to decide on CBI or CIT or whatever they call these extra tournaments. With the start this team had, I don't see any reason to play more ball if it's not NCAA or NIT and NIT ain't happening. Just a giant let down. Team seems tired as it is, even though I'm tired of that phrase getting thrown around.

Last Edited: 2/27/2022 10:12:53 AM by FearLeon

#BleedGreen #TrentIsGOAT

GraffZ06
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/27/2022 12:17:18 PM

FearLeon wrote:

GraffZ06 wrote:

I agree with all that. The NIT is no longer plausible. It's get the auto-bid, get BVP and JC a couple extra games in the CBI or call it a season IMO.

Yeah that's why I added that third option. If it comes down to it, the only reason to accept a CBI invite would be if the seniors really wanted it. Otherwise I agree we might just call it a day.

Deciduous Forest Cat
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/27/2022 12:23:24 PM

Why does everyone think the NIT is out? if we finish 2nd and Toledo wins the MAC, I'd give us better than 50% chance of getting the NIT bid.

Alan Swank
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/27/2022 12:25:09 PM

GraffZ06 wrote:

Can not start Tommy for BRod. That's 3 guys under 6'1 on the floor. If Tommy is starting it would have to be in place of Miles. You just can't win that way in HS let alone here.

My guess is that you never saw the Magic Show at Barberton back in the 70s.

potstirred
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/27/2022 12:45:23 PM

Alan Swank wrote:

GraffZ06 wrote:

Can not start Tommy for BRod. That's 3 guys under 6'1 on the floor. If Tommy is starting it would have to be in place of Miles. You just can't win that way in HS let alone here.

My guess is that you never saw the Magic Show at Barberton back in the 70s.

The Bodnars and Carter Scott They could play a little .

OUs LONG Driver
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/27/2022 1:05:57 PM

I'd consider starting Tommy simply because he has to be guarded on the perimeter. That gives Sears room to operate and the sooner Sears is into the game the better. Maybe we can avoid the slow starts we have been seeing with that change? Tommy is already playing BRods minutes so let's get going from the jump with our best 5. With Carter and BRod on the floor at the same time there is very little risk of bringing that double to Sears.

It's not ideal to have Miles guarding the 3 but if we can't put it in the hole it won't matter.

GraffZ06
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/27/2022 1:39:07 PM

Alan Swank wrote:

GraffZ06 wrote:

Can not start Tommy for BRod. That's 3 guys under 6'1 on the floor. If Tommy is starting it would have to be in place of Miles. You just can't win that way in HS let alone here.

My guess is that you never saw the Magic Show at Barberton back in the 70s.

OUs LONG Driver wrote:

Sure, in theory you CAN, but you both make my case that I explained above as to the only way that works. You're trading defense and rebounding for offense. That means you're now in hope to out-shoot and out-score them mode. Win 95-90 not 65-60.

Sure it will help on offense to start Tommy for BRod. Sure we'll shoot better from 3. Sure it might open things up a bit for Sears. But we're going to give up 10 more rebounds and 15-20 more points a game too.

I know which side of that coin I'd prefer to be on. Defense and rebounding travel. Defense and rebounding work with tired legs. Shooting 3s and hoping to out-gun people doesn't necessarily. Plus it's a 180 from the entire paradigm and strategy this team has used all season.

You really want to throw a hail mary the last week of the season?

Victory
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/27/2022 4:28:13 PM

Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:

Why does everyone think the NIT is out? if we finish 2nd and Toledo wins the MAC, I'd give us better than 50% chance of getting the NIT bid.

I tried explaining it. I think that a 26-7 MAC would be in the NIT in nearly all years and circumstances. We were 24-9 in 2013 and lost in the MAC final and knew we were all but certain of a NIT bid. But this MAC is not your usual MAC and a 26-7 record isn't going to be any better strength of record wise than than that team's 24-9. It may be very slightly worse. But on top of that when people get down to studying us the are going to deem us as not as good as a team with that caliber of SOR would normally be. I mean you would expect a team with a SOR ranking in the 60s to be regarded as also the 60-70th best team by Vegas oddsmakers and betters and by computer power rankings on average. Some better, some worse, but that's basically going to be the average by definition. We aren't that. We are probably regarded just over 100 in that measure at this point. Even though we have somehow played literally zero close games all year, our average margin of victory against the bad teams on our schedule is still, strangely, not what you would expect of a top 60 or 70 team because we also almost never totally crushed those teams. We have not taken a close loss either. It is just a totally bizarre year for us in that regard. None of our game are close but hardly any are total blowouts. We even failed to completely destroy Concordia. Nearly all Ohio teams have destroyed their yearly non-D1 opponent. This team with only 6 losses so far won by 20 points.

Plus these committees tend to, IMO, way, way overemphasize "quality wins". I don't see the point in this because it is already included with exactly the importance that they should be given as part of SOR. Well, I do see the point. If you start counting quality wins it very, very obviously gives a team with more chances to get them a built in advantage. We had two chances at Q1 wins and failed pretty badly both times.

I am not going to say that we won't get in the NIT. I would not be totally shocked by it. Our chances would be slightly better still if we lost in the final instead pf the semi-final. But at this point I'm am definitely betting against it.

Last Edited: 2/27/2022 4:34:14 PM by Victory

GraffZ06
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/27/2022 5:42:22 PM

I've explained this before, but here I'll expand on what Victory said as to why NIT is gone.

68 NCAA slots. 32 auto bids. 36 at-large bids. On any given year roughly 8-12 of those auto-bids will coincide with being ranked in the top 68. That means somewhere between 20-24 auto-bids are teams ranked OUTSIDE the top 68.

When you then start handing out at-large bids - that only leaves 44-48 teams. That means you have to be ranked in the top 50 to be "on the bubble" for NCAA and ranked top 45 to realistically have a shot.

Then we move down to the NIT. 32 bids. They give auto-bids to conference champs who don't make NCAA. Let's assume half auto-bids weren't regular season champs. That leaves 16 teams. Of those 16 - likely (1/4) come from top 8-10 conferences that could get at-large bids to NCAA - so say that removes 4 from the NIT pot. That leaves somewhere around 10-12 (and this estimate feels high) auto-bids to NIT. That only leaves ~20 at-large bids to NIT.

If NCAA at-large pool was top 45/50 and you add 20 more to it for NIT, then add 5-10 for slop/overlap (total rough estimate) then you're talking you need to be ranked in the top 70-80 to be in the discussion for an NIT at-large bid.

Where is Ohio currently ranked?

KenPom - #113
Sagarin - #112
Torvik - #114
Massey - #110
RPI - #66 (outlier)
NET - #103
BPI - #103
SOR - #62 (outlier)

Avg - #97.9

Unless NIT wants to cherry pick RPI or SOR (they won't) then no, we have no shot at an NIT bid.

Victory
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/27/2022 6:40:37 PM

GraffZ06 wrote:

I think it is wrong to look at those 2 in the 60s as outliers. In a system that looks at at a teams resume of wins and losses, that's where we are in all of them consistently. They aren't outliers. As little as I think of the RPI, neither of those that you listed is an outlier at all in their of domain of computer analysis. There are numerous systems like that out there. Others you listed are some of the most well known because they are power rankings and we look at them when thinking about spreads (well NET and Massey's primary system is slightly mixed in that there is a small part of SOR kind of analysis averaged in. Sagarin was like that recently but it looks to me like it no longer is. He no longer lists that Sagarin-ELO analysis with 3 predictive type algorithms but I digress. KemPom is a pure predictor and Torvik's primary ranking is as well.)

But those W's and L's and to whom they came against are a huge, huge part of what the committee looks at. I'd argue that it far outweighs the predictive type of thinking when looking at the teams. Who in terms of their NET ranking and other systems did you defeat to to whom did you lose. So even if you use the NET to come up with a ranking of teams like that and debate it then the ranking in your mind that you come up with by doing that will look more like SOR. I hope that makes some sort of sense

Last Edited: 2/27/2022 6:56:59 PM by Victory

RSBobcat
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/27/2022 6:57:30 PM

NIT also wants Viewers and engagement with the tourney platform. OHIO delivers there vs other mid majors significantly....

RS Bobcat

RSBobcat
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/27/2022 7:04:46 PM

Bobcat1998 wrote:

FearLeon wrote:

It’s now been 29 games.

This is now a season long slump.

He should have been coming off the bench many games ago.

WHY IS EZUMA NOT PLAYING MORE???

Slow feet on D? Tank attacking a jeep on D? Bad hands grabbing passes? Running over players (own team as well as opposing team players) up and down the court? Just maybe some of those.....

RS Bobcat

OUs LONG Driver
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/27/2022 7:23:48 PM

GraffZ06 wrote:

But we're going to give up 10 more rebounds and 15-20 more points a game too.

Would be interesting to see the metrics for the 3 small guards lineup vs. the Starting lineup. Is that info even available to the general public?

I suspect this is a significant exaggeration of reality. I will give you a few rebounds and points but we could start anyone on the team and not see that drop off. I am not even suggesting changing the distribution of the minutes, just change when they come for Tommy and BRod. Tommy is already averaging more minutes in league play.

Teams have changed their game plan on us so we can either keep trying the same thing that's produced some ugly results lately or maybe try a different approach. I like the idea of getting out offensively on the right foot to get the mojo going our way. I think getting Sears scoring early helps the entire team and with the new defensive strategy we are seeing having shooters and space is vital to that.

When Towns started for BRod a month ago we played two good games and held Buffalo and Ball State to 63 and 53. Towns and BRod right now unfortunately are very similar in my opinion so I don't think putting him in the same spot now would change things against this defensive strategy shift, hence my preference for Tommy. A hail Mary would be Olumide as the starter.

Victory
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/27/2022 7:33:02 PM

Victory wrote:

GraffZ06 wrote:

I'll keep rambling on if you are interested in this stuff. Obviously, Feel free to ignore this post if you aren't the analytical type.

This is a list of 59 systems on Massey's site.

https://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

We were ranked 89 on average as of last Monday. So we have a win and a loss not counted yet. It should be updated again tomorrow. I'd say about half are predictive type systems. The rest are resume based or a mixture. I don't think any do that overweighting of quality wins on top of that stuff like the committee does.

Anyway, after the first few years of the BCS, all six system that were included were required to be the resume based, W/L analysis, SOR type of system. Anderson-Hester was a crappy simple formulaic system similar to the RPI. Massey and Sagarin in the BCS were just that resume W/L part that is or was a small part of their primary system that I was taking about above. A couple of them, I think, never existed for basketball. The one of the 6 in the BCS that still exists in a similar for for basketball was Colley. We were 59 in Colley on Monday which is what is in Massey's composite today. Today, going to Colley's site we are 70 so when Massey updates tomorrow that's about what it will say as our new Colley rank in the composite.

Anyway, as I was saying. don't get too hung up on SOR as an outlier with respect to all of the predictors because its probably closer in the end to the process that the committee will go through. That isn't to say that how we will be thought of in predictive/power rank terms is not an issue for us. It totally is and that line of thinking will go into it too. Also, since the committee overweighs just counting up Q1 type of wins over and above a SOR sort of analysis of wins and losses that's definitely an issue as well. All of that combined is why I feel an NIT berth is pretty unlikely if we take a 7th loss in the MAC tournament.

Last Edited: 2/27/2022 9:38:57 PM by Victory

OhioCatFan
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/27/2022 9:28:10 PM

RSBobcat wrote:

NIT also wants Viewers and engagement with the tourney platform. OHIO delivers there vs other mid majors significantly....

This is true. Merit has little to do with NIT selection. I remember when Danny Nee was here. It was toward the end of the season. I was walking down the hill toward the West Green and Danny was walking to the Convo. We walked together for several blocks. He told me that he was sure that he could get OHIO in the NIT if we didn't win the MAC Tournament. He said he knew folks on the committee. I believe his exact words were, "I have friends." He seemed extremely confident. Well, as it turned out his "friends" not only put a mediocre OHIO team in the tourney but gave us a home game against the Evil Empire (aka Ohio A&M). The Bad Guys won in OT, and I believe went on to win the NIT.

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

Victory
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/27/2022 9:49:28 PM

OhioCatFan wrote:

RSBobcat wrote:

NIT also wants Viewers and engagement with the tourney platform. OHIO delivers there vs other mid majors significantly....

The NIT used to make no bones about this. They used to give home games to teams that would sell the most tickets. But since the NCAA bought the NIT teams are actually seeded and this sort of nepotism and worrying about home tickets and TV exposure over quality and resume seems to be a much, much lesser issue. I don't know that it is non-existent but it isn't running the show.

I remember talking to my Marshall grad buddy when D'Andre Kane played for them and they finished the year on Lunardi's "Next Four Out" list. He assumed that being likely one of the first eight teams not in the NCAA made them a lock for the NIT. I told him not to bank on it. Once they filled the field with every high-major in the top 90 or 100 or so for TV and tickets and all of the low-major #1 seeds that failed to win their conference tournament, a few of which are nowhere near the top 100, there wasn't much room for #60ish type mid-majors. Sure enough they left Marshall out. I believe we beat them in the first round of the CBI or CIT.

OhioCatFan
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RE: Why Is Roderick Still Starting?

Posted: 2/27/2022 10:31:49 PM

Victory wrote:

OhioCatFan wrote:

RSBobcat wrote:

NIT also wants Viewers and engagement with the tourney platform. OHIO delivers there vs other mid majors significantly....

Thanks for the perspective. I had forgotten, or never knew, that the NCAA actually bought the NIT. I did know that their selection process was a little different these days, but I didn't know the details that you provided. I appreciate that.

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