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Topic: Statistical Comparison - Wins vs. Losses

Topic: Statistical Comparison - Wins vs. Losses

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JWBobcat
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Member Since: 1/28/2020
Location: Bethlehem, PA
Post Count: 8

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Statistical Comparison - Wins vs. Losses

Posted: 3/6/2022 2:18:44 PM

It has no doubt been frustrating to watch the team over these last few weeks. I see others have hypothesized on what could be the reason or reasons for their struggles.

I've been wondering the same, so I decided to take a look at the game-by-game stats to see if any interesting trends or differences appear. I grouped the stats in several ways:

1) full season to date
2) all wins
3) all losses
4) since the first Toledo loss (incl. that game)
5) since the second Toledo loss (incl. that game)
6) since the Kent State loss (incl. that game)
7) our three game losing streak to end the season

I'm just going to share a few takeaways from some of these categories. Now I'll be the first to say that I'm no statistician or basketball coach, and there are plenty of others who know much more than I do about the game. Just wanted to share some numbers for the good of the discussion.

Overall, I think it's a combination of things on both offense and defense. Not sure how much I want to buy into other issues with team chemistry and/or fatigue though, but those possible factors cannot be ignored. I do think Boals is a great coach and if any of our recent coaches can address these issues, I believe he can. Nevertheless, onto the stats

First, let's take a look at the offense. Below are some takeaways:

- FG percentage: It's about 46% in all wins, compared to 35% in all losses, and 39% over the three game losing streak. Maybe not surprising that we make fewer shots when we lose, but still. Maybe we're taking lower percentage shots.

- Three point attempts: Like others have said on other threads, I noticed a lot of 3-point attempts over the last few weeks. Sure enough since the second loss to Toledo we have been averaging over 30 3-point attempts each game, and over 34 attempts over the 3-game losing streak. Compare that to roughly 26 attempts in all of our wins. Interestingly though, our 3-pt make percentage is relatively consistent at 34%

- Percent of shots that are 3-pointers: This one is interesting. In all wins, about 44% of our attempts are threes, compared to 50% or more in all losses, including nearly 55% over our 3-game losing streak. Does that point to tired legs, unwillingness to drive and/or take higher percentage shots? Who knows. You might be wondering if the uptick in reliance on the 3-ball coincides with fewer FT attempts. Not really. We are still averaging about the same number of attempts 15-20 in all game (wins and losses).

- Assists: I wondered if there'd be a difference here, but there isn't really. We average 12-14 assists per game

- Defensive Rebounds: A bit of a split here. We average about 25 defensive rebounds per game in all of our wins, compared to 20 in all losses, including our 3-game losing streak. Does that mean more second chance points for our opponents?

- No major differences in the following categories: offensive rebounds, turnovers, FT percentage

Now for the defense.

- FG percentage: When we lose, opponents average 50% or better FG percentage. Over our 3-game losing streak that has peaked at 52%

- 3-point defense: No differences here. If anything, our 3-point defense is better in losses. Maybe that points to teams taking more high percentage shots?

- FT Attempts - No surprise here. When we win, we have allowed about 14 FT attempts. When we lose, our opponents average 19 FT attempts. Looking at the last 3 games they are averaging a staggering 26 FT attempts. Gulp.

- Overall, I think teams have figured out that in order to beat us when they're on offense, they need to drive to the hoop and push the tempo/score in transition, although I don't have any stats to support the second hypothesis.

Next steps? Would be great to look at other stats like defensive efficiency (points allowed per possession) and offensive efficiency (points scored per possession) by week. I also think it would be good to look at some individual stats. I saw a few on Jason Carter on the Ball State pre-game thread. Maybe we can build off of that.

Open to any other comments or suggestions others may have!

Hoping the Cats can right this ship and get back on track for the MAC tourney. Stay positive!

Andrew Ruck
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Member Since: 12/22/2004
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 4,878

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RE: Statistical Comparison - Wins vs. Losses

Posted: 3/7/2022 7:58:55 AM

JWBobcat wrote:

- Overall, I think teams have figured out that in order to beat us when they're on offense, they need to drive to the hoop and push the tempo/score in transition, although I don't have any stats to support the second hypothesis.

Thanks for sharing your deep dive. I would say this is very accurate, and supported by how high of a 2 point percentage our opponents have when they beat us while the 3 point % stays mostly flat as you noted.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

spongeBOB CATpants
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Member Since: 8/16/2016
Post Count: 989

Status: Offline

RE: Statistical Comparison - Wins vs. Losses

Posted: 3/7/2022 11:00:31 AM

Thanks for taking the time to put this together, we all have our opinions while watching the games but the analytics tell the truth.

What a strange year it has been, even the stats agree.

GroverBall
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Member Since: 12/3/2012
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 1,246

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RE: Statistical Comparison - Wins vs. Losses

Posted: 3/7/2022 11:13:00 AM

Thanks for the analysis JW, interesting dive into the stats. However, taking a look at this info just reinforces my WTF happened feeling, which isn't about our ability to defend the 2, or our 3-point shooting percentage or number of 3s taken or anything else specifically. It's like the switch got turned off. Now, to some degree that's a positive in that maybe the switch can be turned back on? I think some of our losses have come to teams (Toledo, Kent, Akron) that were just feeling it and boy did they hit shots when we did not, and I'm hopeful that those teams won't be able to pull off those gaudy ~60% shooting numbers in a half or game again. But if they don't we still have to be playing our A game or we are toast.

To address what JW did not in his statistical analysis, chemistry, fatigue, coaching etc., I think these factors must be playing a role? And I am looking straight at the coaching staff have this team ready to turn the switch back on. There are some specific strategies to consider, getting Sears going early, not jacking every three but making the additional pass for an easier two, passing out of the double-team, BVP and Carter getting more paint touches, etc., but overall the staff needs to find the magic message to get this team to compete again. They know how to win, they need to find their confidence and groove again and if this happens we have a shot at this thing.

I have always been a fan of the mid-range game, and I realize that in today's basketball world the mid-range is a thing of the past unless you're DeMar DeRozan. This team misses a mid-range shooter in my opinion, the guy who can get into the 12-15 foot seams and pull up consistently. Carter has a step-back, Sears maybe takes some mid-range shots but otherwise we are shooting 3s or contested shots at the rim? I freely admit I'm not much of an analytics guy.

It's interesting that at the peak of this season the 10-year contract for Boals stuff started, and now most eyes are on him asking WTF happened? I like Boals and this team, but the kool-aid was being chugged by everyone and we got way ahead of ourselves, 10 years ahead of ourselves. Let's start with a flipped switch on Thursday and go from there. I remain hopeful.

spongeBOB CATpants
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Member Since: 8/16/2016
Post Count: 989

Status: Offline

RE: Statistical Comparison - Wins vs. Losses

Posted: 3/7/2022 11:52:45 AM

GroverBall wrote:

I'm most definitely still chugging the Boals kool aid. There is a lot more to the college game than x's and o's and Boals checks the box on pretty much everything else outside of game management for me.

Let's remember that he isn't the one shooting the ball.

Recruiting is obviously the big one and we have a fantastic incoming class that hopefully will provide improvement in some critical areas.

An extension should be offered this off season, regardless of the final results from Cleveland.

Casper71
General User

Member Since: 12/1/2006
Post Count: 2,930

Status: Offline

RE: Statistical Comparison - Wins vs. Losses

Posted: 3/7/2022 2:41:49 PM

Not so sure Carter is the entire problem. My observation is the bench replacements have not scored as many points lately, other than Tommy.

Bobcat Love's Sense of Shame
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Member Since: 7/30/2010
Post Count: 3,481

Status: Online

RE: Statistical Comparison - Wins vs. Losses

Posted: 3/7/2022 7:26:56 PM

JWBobcat wrote:

- Three point attempts: Like others have said on other threads, I noticed a lot of 3-point attempts over the last few weeks. Sure enough since the second loss to Toledo we have been averaging over 30 3-point attempts each game, and over 34 attempts over the 3-game losing streak. Compare that to roughly 26 attempts in all of our wins. Interestingly though, our 3-pt make percentage is relatively consistent at 34%
- Percent of shots that are 3-pointers: This one is interesting. In all wins, about 44% of our attempts are threes, compared to 50% or more in all losses, including nearly 55% over our 3-game losing streak. Does that point to tired legs, unwillingness to drive and/or take higher percentage shots? Who knows. You might be wondering if the uptick in reliance on the 3-ball coincides with fewer FT attempts. Not really. We are still averaging about the same number of attempts 15-20 in all game (wins and losses).

I suspect a big piece of this is pressing in losses where we've fallen behind. In a few of those losses, we suffered from really slow starts. Suspect the offense got 3 point shot happy to try make up ground.

- Assists: I wondered if there'd be a difference here, but there isn't really. We average 12-14 assists per game

JWBobcat wrote:

- Defensive Rebounds: A bit of a split here. We average about 25 defensive rebounds per game in all of our wins, compared to 20 in all losses, including our 3-game losing streak. Does that mean more second chance points for our opponents?

I think it probably just means more made shots for our opponents.

- No major differences in the following categories: offensive rebounds, turnovers, FT percentage

JWBobcat wrote:

- FT Attempts - No surprise here. When we win, we have allowed about 14 FT attempts. When we lose, our opponents average 19 FT attempts. Looking at the last 3 games they are averaging a staggering 26 FT attempts. Gulp.

This likely points to tired legs. Slower rotations, more reaching. I know NBA data shows higher opponent free throw numbers on the second night of a back-to-back, so that tracks here.

Cool look at what's going on. Thanks for pulling it together.

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