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Topic: Updated MAC Tournament Seeding Possibilities

Topic: Updated MAC Tournament Seeding Possibilities

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Flomo-genized
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Updated MAC Tournament Seeding Possibilities

Posted: 3/4/2011 9:26:06 PM

Following tonight's loss to Miami, and Kent's win over Akron, here are the remaining possibilities for our MAC Tournament draw:

Ohio will finish 4th IF BSU loses at home to NIU. In this case, we will either be in a 3-way tie with Akron and BSU, or a 4-way tie with Akron, BSU, and Buffalo (if Buffalo beats BGSU). Ohio would win either tie-breaker, by virtue of our 3-0 record vs. Akron/BSU, or 4-1 record against Akron/BSU/UB. I believe we would play the winner of Akron/Toledo in the first round in the case of either a 3-way or 4-way tie, but could be wrong on that.

Ohio will finish 5th IF BSU beats NIU. In this case, we will either be in a 2-way tie with Akron, which we would win by having swept the Zips, or a 3-way tie with Akron and Buffalo (if UB beats BGSU), which we would win by virtue of our 3-1 record vs. Akron/UB. If we finish 5th, we will play Toledo on Tuesday, and then either BSU or WMU should we advance to Cleveland. We will play BSU if they beat NIU and WMU beats CMU. We will play WMU if CMU beats WMU.

I believe those are the only three remaining possibilities, so go Huskies!

Edit: Revised to reflect the fact that we would play either BSU or WMU should we finish 5th, not Miami, as Upsan notes...

Last Edited: 3/5/2011 9:03:46 AM by Flomo-genized

Steve
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RE: Updated MAC Tournament Seeding Possibilities

Posted: 3/4/2011 10:08:55 PM

Thanks for the research, Flomo. The way NIU is going, I don't think we can count on them. Either way, no flinching next week.

oubobcatjohn
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RE: Updated MAC Tournament Seeding Possibilities

Posted: 3/4/2011 10:27:54 PM

Assuming to don't let Toledo get their first road win of the season. We likely will be playing in the last game of the evening on Thursday nite. I think this is our best senario as it allows the Ozone time to get up to Cleveland so we got a crowd.

UpSan Bobcat
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RE: Updated MAC Tournament Seeding Possibilities

Posted: 3/5/2011 2:35:56 AM

Here is a rundown on the possible scenarios:

In all scenarios, Kent State is 1, Miami is 3, Northern Illinois is 10, Eastern Michigan is 11 and Toledo is 12.
The Toledo at Eastern Michigan game has no effect on seeding, leaving 8 possible results:
Buffalo beats BG, BSU beats NIU, WMU beats CMU: 1. Kent; 2. WMU; 3. Miami; 4. BSU; 5. Ohio; 6. Akron; 7. Buffalo; 8. CMU; 9. BG; 10. NIU; 11. EMU; 12. Toledo.
Buffalo beats BG, BSU beats NIU, CMU beats WMU: 1. Kent; 2. BSU; 3. Miami; 4. WMU; 5. Ohio; 6. Akron; 7. Buffalo; 8. CMU; 9. BG; 10. NIU; 11. EMU; 12. Toledo.
Buffalo beats BG, NIU beats BSU, WMU beats CMU: 1. Kent; 2. WMU; 3. Miami; 4. Ohio; 5. Akron; 6. Buffalo; 7. BSU; 8. CMU; 9. BG; 10. NIU; 11. EMU; 12. Toledo.
Buffalo beats BG, NIU beats BSU, CMU beats WMU: 1. Kent; 2. WMU; 3. Miami; 4. Ohio; 5. Akron; 6. Buffalo; 7. BSU; 8. CMU; 9. BG; 10. NIU; 11. EMU; 12. Toledo.
BG beats Buffalo, BSU beats NIU, WMU beats CMU: 1. Kent; 2. WMU; 3. Miami; 4. BSU; 5. Ohio; 6. Akron; 7. BG; 8. Buffalo; 9. CMU; 10. NIU; 11. EMU; 12. Toledo.
BG beats Buffalo, BSU beats NIU, CMU beats WMU: 1. Kent; 2. BSU; 3. Miami; 4. WMU; 5. Ohio; 6. Akron; 7. BG; 8. CMU; 9. Buffalo; 10. NIU; 11. EMU; 12. Toledo.
BG beats Buffalo, NIU beats BSU, WMU beats CMU: 1. Kent; 2. WMU; 3. Miami; 4. Ohio; 5. Akron; 6. BSU; 7. BG; 8. Buffalo; 9. CMU; 10. NIU; 11. EMU; 12. Toledo.
BG beats Buffalo, NIU beats BSU, CMU beats WMU: 1. Kent; 2. WMU; 3. Miami; 4. Ohio; 5. Akron; 6. BSU; 7. BG; 8. CMU; 9. Buffalo; 10. NIU; 11. EMU; 12. Toledo.

So do we want a bye or do we want a tuneup game vs. Toledo? Who would we most like to face in the quarterfinals? Possibilities are Ball State, Western Michigan and Akron. Which possible 8/9 team (CMU, BG or Buffalo) has the best shot of knocking off Kent State?

Last Edited: 3/5/2011 3:20:52 PM by UpSan Bobcat

Eagle66
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RE: Updated MAC Tournament Seeding Possibilities

Posted: 3/5/2011 8:02:52 AM

UpSan Bobcat wrote:

So do we want a bye or do we want a tuneup game vs. Toledo? Who would we most like to face in the quarterfinals? Possibilities are Ball State, Western Michigan and Akron. Which possible 8/9 team (CMU, BG or Buffalo) has the best shot of knocking off Kent State?

Even though the opponents would be tougher (on papaer anyway), Id always take the bye.

Of the non bye scenarios, I think I'd prefer option 5 (BG beats Buffalo, BSU beats NIU, WMU beats CMU). Toledo only has 5 or 6 scholarship players, and barring a complete collapse, we should get to Cleveland. That would give us a round 2 game with Ball St. Id say Buffalo has the best chance of the three possabilities to beat Kent. Plus Akron has proven they can beat Miami.

Last Edited: 3/5/2011 8:03:57 AM by Eagle66

TWT
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RE: Updated MAC Tournament Seeding Possibilities

Posted: 3/5/2011 9:49:48 AM

Then from the breakdown above its 50/50 chance at either a 4 or 5 seed. Its a pretty easy run to the Semifinals for Ohio with Toledo @ home or Ball/WMU @ Cleveland. From there it gets difficult but I like our chances on short preparation time against Kent or Miami.

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BOBCATBEN
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RE: Updated MAC Tournament Seeding Possibilities

Posted: 3/5/2011 2:17:57 PM

Judging by the seeding possibilites above I think it's mush more advantagous fo us to get the #5 seed and face one of the worse teams in the nation in toledo then play either WMU or BSU (I'd prefer BSU but either one will do) I know we have swept Akron this year but I think it'll be tough for us to beat them 3 times and they are better than WMU/BSU. Now that BG is beating Buff we should all root for BSU.

Flomo-genized
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RE: Updated MAC Tournament Seeding Possibilities

Posted: 3/5/2011 2:24:45 PM

While I agree that I'd probably prefer to face BSU or WMU in the QFs rather than Akron, overall I still prefer the bye. It is going to be much more difficult to win the tournament this year without a bye, given that the first round games are being played on Tuesday rather than Sunday like last year. Having to win 4 games in 5 nights is a taller task than 4 in 7 nights.

Regardless, I'm glad to see BGSU beating Buffalo. If BGSU can hold on, that will put Buffalo in line for the 8th or 9th seed, which will present Kent with a tough match-up in the QFs should UB get by CMU in the first round. Buffalo slaughtered Kent back in January, and nearly beat them on the road last week.

BOBCATBEN
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RE: Updated MAC Tournament Seeding Possibilities

Posted: 3/5/2011 2:32:13 PM

That is true but if we do get the #5 seed we should be able to rest our starters atleast part of the 2nd half. This will give our freshmen some minutes and confidence for thur thus hopefully we aren't as tired/

ts1227
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RE: Updated MAC Tournament Seeding Possibilities

Posted: 3/5/2011 3:02:40 PM

BG beat Buffalo, so BG will get the 7 and most likely Buffalo the 8 (WMU is beating CMU by 11 at the half)

Last Edited: 3/5/2011 3:12:22 PM by ts1227

UpSan Bobcat
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RE: Updated MAC Tournament Seeding Possibilities

Posted: 3/5/2011 3:25:21 PM

ts1227 wrote:

BG beat Buffalo, so BG will get the 7 and most likely Buffalo the 8 (WMU is beating CMU by 11 at the half)

And Ball State is up 20 on Northern Illinois, so it's looking like this, unless something changes dramatically:

BG beats Buffalo, BSU beats NIU, WMU beats CMU: 1. Kent; 2. WMU; 3. Miami; 4. BSU; 5. Ohio; 6. Akron; 7. BG; 8. Buffalo; 9. CMU; 10. NIU; 11. EMU; 12. Toledo.

ts1227
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RE: Updated MAC Tournament Seeding Possibilities

Posted: 3/5/2011 3:36:34 PM

UpSan Bobcat wrote:

ts1227 wrote:

BG beat Buffalo, so BG will get the 7 and most likely Buffalo the 8 (WMU is beating CMU by 11 at the half)

Yep. It's basically set in stone barring some massive collapse in the last 8 minutes of these crappy West games.

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