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Topic: Advanced Metrics

Topic: Advanced Metrics

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Andrew Ruck
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Member Since: 12/22/2004
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 4,882

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Advanced Metrics

Posted: 3/15/2021 9:12:43 AM

I hadn't gotten around to posting a deep dive into some of the advanced stats out there that I always find interesting. The extension of our season is as good a reason as any to take a look.

Basketball reference has a formula called BPM that calculates the points per 100 possessions a player contributes above a league average player. It is similar to WAR (wins above replacement) in baseball meant to boil the all around game into 1 number. It has an offensive component and defensive component. Here is how the Bobcats shake out:

J Preston +7.6 (O +6.1, D +1.5)
M Sears +5.1 (O +4.0, D +1.1)
B Vander Plas +4.1 (O +2.8, D +1.3)
D Wilson +2.8 (O +4.2, D -1.4)
B Roderick +2.1 (O +3.3, D -1.2)
M Brown +0.5 (O -0.3, D +0.8)
L McDay -0.6 (O +0.6, D -1.2)

J White +2.2 (O +3.3 D -1.1)
S Towns -5.6 (O -5.3, D -0.3)
N Foster -10.9 (O -9.3, D -1.6)
C Granger -11.8 (O -9.7, D -2.1)
R Miguel -16.2 (O -14.0, D -2.2)

The other advanced stat they have is wins shares per 40 minutes, meant to boil down to how much a player contributed to a win. The average win per team per game being .5...and 5 players on the court...so the average/solid player would be around .1. 5 players on the court close to .2 would theoretically make for a fairly unbeatable team from a statistical standpoint. Here is how the Bobcats shake out with that stat:

M Sears +.209
J Preston +.201
D Wilson +.197
B Vander Plas +.141
B Roderick +.138
L McDay +.109
M Brown +.095

J White +.146
S Towns +.030
C Granger +.010
R Miguel +.000
N Foster -.031

Every time I look at this stuff I am amazed how well it backs up the eye test. A few takeaways:

- Jason Preston is incredible.
- Mark Sears has been incredible as a freshman.
- The 5some of Preston, Sears, Wilson, BVP, & Roderick is as potent of an offensive group as we have seen in a very long time. This REALLY passes the eye test for me. How nice is it to have 5 guys you are completely comfortable with the ball in their hands?
- As some of us have discussed, some guys (Roderick, McDay, Wilson) can hurt us on defense as times. I feel like their stepping up on D has been a huge part of this massive hot streak.
- Also as I believe many of us have suspected, the big guys that have mixed in behind DW have struggled.
- This can be a little unfair to bench players when you consider the nature of a lot of the minutes they get to play. It's not like they're running a normal offense in those last 5 minutes of a blowout. The bigger the sample size, the better this data is.

Since JP has returned, Sears has played 23, 24, 22, 9 & 13 minutes. I don't know why his numbers dipped the last 2 games but in my opinion he absolutely MUST get 20+. Particularly a great defensive team like Virginia, we need all the guys who can create shots on the floor...I don't expect many open passing lanes. And I'm not sure I would bother at this point to mix Granger/Foster in unless DW gets in pretty significant foul trouble. Others who aren't as MAC-centric as me, I would love to hear more on the matchup with Virginia and what kind of personnel we will need...can we afford to player smaller at time?

Again, I know these stats aren't perfect...but I'd rather discuss this stuff than argue for the 4,728th time about how we should view Jim Christian.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

GroverBall
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Member Since: 12/3/2012
Location: Athens, OH
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RE: Advanced Metrics

Posted: 3/15/2021 10:19:41 AM

+1 on your last line.

And thanks for these numbers, very interesting analysis. As far as giving Wilson a breather, in tourney it appeared he needed it? Not sure if he is nursing a slight injury or maybe was battling a non-covid illness?

Kevin Finnegan
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Location: Rockton, IL
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RE: Advanced Metrics

Posted: 3/15/2021 10:41:25 AM

I don't know anything about these numbers, but they're interesting to read. However, the one thing that surprised me above all else was seeing Lunden McDay with a negative defensive WAR (Defense: -1.2). He was just named All-MAC Defense by the league. Is there something the league (and myself, though with an untrained eye) is missing?

GoCats105
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Member Since: 1/31/2006
Location: Seattle, WA
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RE: Advanced Metrics

Posted: 3/15/2021 10:48:35 AM

The McDay defensive numbers are fascinating to me in two aspects:

-We can all argue about who it is, but he's been our most solid defensive player. He made the MAC All-Defensive team for a reason.

-I'm wondering if his defensive rating is simply because he's tasked with guarding the opposing team's best player no matter what. They're gonna score eventually.

But Lunden does all the little things nobody notices until they matter.

Andrew Ruck
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Member Since: 12/22/2004
Location: Columbus, OH
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RE: Advanced Metrics

Posted: 3/15/2021 10:55:42 AM

Kevin Finnegan wrote:

Yeah, it is a little surprising to me too. He had a -0.6 DBPM last year which makes me unwilling to just ignore it as a dud. The only guess I have is he does not have many steals or blocks, which obviously boost these numbers. It may also suggest whoever he is defending scores more than we realize, if I had to guess specifically with the 3 pointer. We see a lot of hustle and not many blatant lapses from McDay, but perhaps he has a tendency to defend against the dribble drive too much which makes him vulnerable to high accuracy perimeter shooting?

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

Kevin Finnegan
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RE: Advanced Metrics

Posted: 3/15/2021 2:02:30 PM

Or, it could be that the metrics have really mastered understanding the offensive side, but are still struggling to solve defense. That's how it is in baseball. Offensive numbers seem quite reliable in advanced metrics with baseball, but the defensive numbers don't always bear out what the eye test tells you. I've never given great value to the defensive WAR in baseball.

JSF
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Member Since: 1/29/2005
Location: Houston, TX
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RE: Advanced Metrics

Posted: 3/15/2021 2:40:33 PM

I don't know how defensive WAR is calculated, but there are couple stats one can use to evaluate someone's defensive contributions. One is to compare opponent points per possesion with and without that person. You can also look at opponent field goal shooting with and without that person, or even zero in on a specific player.

Flipping it around, if you look at our offensive efficency with Preston on the floor and then off it, you'll see how valuable he is. Problem is, those stats are not really done in the college game.

"Loyalty to a hometown or city is fleeting and interchangeable, but college is a stamp of identity."- Kyle Whelliston, One Beautiful Season.

My blog about depression and mental illness: https://bit.ly/3buGXH8

OUVan
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Bethesda, MD
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RE: Advanced Metrics

Posted: 3/15/2021 2:42:12 PM

Kevin Finnegan wrote:

Agreed. And basketball defensive metrics have to be ten times harder to measure than baseball.

Victory
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RE: Advanced Metrics

Posted: 3/15/2021 2:44:36 PM

Kevin Finnegan wrote:

I'm going to be the first to say that defensive metrics in baseball were mostly useless for a long time. I don't think that's the case anymore. Not every metric you see is like this. Many that take in only data that you can get from a paper scoresheet are only marginally better than they were in 1990. Some of them know exactly how far a player moved to make a play and in exactly how much time to get to a fly and know exactly what the normal hit rate on a ground ball that takes X seconds to get through the infield in X location. This is the information that the front offices have which should be quite good.

I'll also say that it was quite evident to me from basically childhood that the eye test defense for 90% of people was every bit as bad as the metrics. I can remember watching Carney Lanford as a kid diving for nearly every ball at third base. That was his range. It wasn't much more than how far he could dive. But some announcers would go on an on about how many diving stops he made. I can remember Rey Ordonez, who actually was an excellent shortstop, make everyone think that he was better than Ozzie by doing things like turning 360s while making routine throws moving toward first.

I drove to a Reds game about 20 years ago and watched an outfielder break in on a fly ball and have to make a great catch by making a diving stop over his shoulder. But he had turned a routine fly into an adventure. As my friend and I were discussing that everyone around us was telling us we could not appreciate a great play. I was listening to Tracy Jones on WLW driving home and heard him do exactly the same thing to Marty and Joe who apparently recognized that he turned a routine fly into an adventure on their radio broadcast. We never rated hitters by how pretty their swing is or how flashy they are in the box. But, somehow, unless you start making a concerted effort to think otherwise, that's how how brain wants to evaluate defense.

Now, unlike baseball where most of the early metrics could be simplified into hitter/pitcher confrontation as get a decent result with just that, and like defense, no part of basketball is that simple and defense is probably even more complicated. So the defensive metrics probably are not as reliable as some other sports analytics that you see out there.

Last Edited: 3/15/2021 2:48:29 PM by Victory

oldkatz
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RE: Advanced Metrics

Posted: 3/15/2021 3:11:24 PM

GoCats105 wrote:

Indeed. Continual motor.

"All my inside sources tell me I have no inside sources." Salvatore "money bucks" Mafiosiano.

The Optimist
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Location: CLE
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RE: Advanced Metrics

Posted: 3/16/2021 4:01:55 PM

Good stuff.

I am not sure how these are calculated, but my first question on McDay's defensive numbers was also if the metrics factor in him guarding the best player.

With regards to Virginia, I agree on Sears. I didn't notice the minutes dip in the Semis and Final. I am curious the reasoning there. Arkley mentioned the other day that Sears' emergence has allowed Preston the opportunity to shine off the ball which I agree with.
I think we see 30 mins from Wilson vs Virginia. I actually like Granger and Foster better then him defensively, but he's better on the boards and most importantly he is absolute money shooting inside. I just looked and he's currently 8th in the nation in FG% which jive well with his offensive number.

I've seen crazier things happen.

Obc2
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Member Since: 11/8/2007
Location: Cincinnati, OH
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RE: Advanced Metrics

Posted: 3/16/2021 7:02:00 PM

I like brown and mcday defensively.

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