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Ohio Basketball

Topic: Advanced Stats

Topic: Advanced Stats

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Andrew Ruck
General User

Member Since: 12/22/2004
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 4,882

Status: Offline

Advanced Stats

Posted: 3/6/2020 9:35:52 PM

I posted about this last year and thought it would be beneficial to see a refresh. Basketball reference has a formula called BPM that calculates the points per 100 possessions a player contributes above a league average player. It is similar to WAR (wins above replacement) in baseball meant to boil the all around game into 1 number. It has an offensive component and defensive component. Here is how the Bobcats shake out:

J Preston +4.1 (O +3.1, D +1.0)
B Vander Plas +2.3 (O +0.9, D +1.4)
J Dartis +1.2 (O +3.1, D -1.9)
S Ogdonda +0.8 (O -1.7, D +2.6)
L McDay +0.1 (O +0.4, D -0.3)
N Springs -1.8 (O -0.5, D -1.3)
M McMurray -2.1 (O -1.4, D -0.7
B Roderick -3.4 (O -1.0, D -2.4)
N Foster -6.1 (O -4.9, D -1.2)
C Murrell -6.9 (O -6.1, D -0.7)
Mil Brown -9.3 (O -8.9, D -0.4)

As I said with last year's batch (which pointed out, among other things, how terrible TK was on offense)...These stats really pass the eye test for me.

Immediately, you see the Bobcats have a depth problem that we knew about. Basically we have Preston & BVP as studs, Dartis an offensive weapon but a defensive liability while Ogbonda is the opposite, McDay a serviceable player (and great for a freshman), followed by a lot of mostly disappointment. My hope is after tonight, we see Roderick & Brown take a step forward to be at least serviceable which gives us a strong rotation for the tourney.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

OhioCatFan
General User

Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 14,168

Status: Offline

RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 3/6/2020 10:11:23 PM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

Problem with this stat, though it is interesting, is that it doesn't take into account progress and learning that took place during the season. McDay and Brown, among others, aren't the same now as they were earlier in the season. It certainly is accurate putting Preston and BVP at the top.

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

Alan Swank
General User

Member Since: 12/11/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 7,074

Status: Offline

RE: Advanced Stats

Posted: 3/7/2020 5:40:36 PM

If you watch McDay closely, he does so many little things all the time. At about the 2 minute mark of the first half, Preston drove the left baseline and passed to the right corner to a wide open McDay who very very quickly passed to a more even wide open Roderick for the three. It was the most crisp two passes I've seen all year.

Down at the other end Miami shot a three that resulted in a long rebound about 16 feet out and McDay had blocked out his man that far from the basket. Perfect position and a rebound that he got and we took it the other way. John Wooden could not have drawn it up any better.

46% from the field, 72% from the line although it seems like the last few games he hasn't missed, 2.8 rebounds per game and an 8.2 scoring average. There isn't a coach in the league who wouldn't take that from a freshman who would have been listed as the fifth starter at the beginning of the season or maybe not even a starter if Murrell and Dartis had been healthy from the beginning.

He's an all MAC freshman selection.

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