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Topic: West Championship to be decided tonight

Topic: West Championship to be decided tonight

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L.C.
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West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/2/2017 10:14:30 AM

With CMU's comeback upset of WMU last night, WMU is virtually eliminated from the West race (3.8% chance of winning it), and while CMU hangs on to an outside chance (1.1% chance), the two real contenders, NIU and Toledo meet tonight. I'm rooting for an NIU win myself as I'd rather face them in the MACC (assuming Ohio gets there), rather than face Toledo again, for a couple reasons. First, it's never fun to play the same team twice in the same season. Second, with Ohio's issues with pass defense, I think Ohio matches up better against NIU.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

C Money
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/2/2017 10:25:36 AM

http://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=400945010

Check out ESPN's win probability chart from that CMU/WMU game. WMU had a 98.3% chance of winning with 11 minutes to go in the 4th quarter.

And I agree on NIU vs. Toledo. We need to exorcise some demons from 2011.

Buckeye to Bobcat
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/2/2017 11:18:59 AM

Toledo is the Greg Norman of the MAC. If they win tonight, color me shocked.

L.C.
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/2/2017 12:42:44 PM

C Money wrote:

That's another good reason for wanting to face NIU in the finals. That would make a MACC all that much sweeter.

There are lots of those strange probability charts this year. Look at EMU-NIU, for another example, or Miami-UC. The fact that there are so many that shift from 99% one way to a loss makes me think that they overstate the probability.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

DublinCat
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/2/2017 1:26:13 PM

I too think we would match up better vs NIU if we get to Detroit.

However, a Toledo win tonight and there is a good chance they arrive in Athens as a Top 25 team at 8-1. The Bobcats have never beat a team ranked in the Top 25. It would be another box to check off for Ohio Football.
Most likely the only opportunity to do that this year.

We slowed Woodson down last year with K. Hunt. IMHO, NIU or Toledo will need a good plan to stop the best QB in the MAC. Limit the TO's like at Purdue and CMU and this offense is very difficult to slow down.

OU87

bshot44
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/2/2017 1:28:09 PM

DublinCat wrote:

Toledo will NOT come to Athens as a ranked team. They are over 100 votes from cracking either poll ... and win over an above-average NIU team won't exactly wow voters into throwing them up there.

Are you saying Nathan Rourke is better than Logan Woodside?!? I think that is a bit of a stretch.

Woodside is hands down best QB in this league.

And I would say that EMU did a pretty good job shutting down this offense ....

Last Edited: 11/2/2017 1:29:35 PM by bshot44

L.C.
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/2/2017 2:40:34 PM

bshot44 wrote:

...And I would say that EMU did a pretty good job shutting down this offense ....

In regulation, yes, but I think the offense grew a lot of confidence from their success in OT that day. To my eye they have been much better since then.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

OhioCatFan
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/2/2017 3:37:06 PM

Toledo is 28th in the AP Poll. So depending on what happens to the teams in the 20 to 25 slots, it�s possible for Toledo to slip into the top 25, if they win tonight. It�s certainly not a lock, but it is possible.

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

DublinCat
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/2/2017 3:55:24 PM

I was at the EMU game. It was played on a very hot concrete slab on a 100+ degree field. EMU is IMHO the second best team Toledo has faced this year.

Rourke in his 1st ever ROAD start as a Bobcat vs EMU = 28 Points
Woodside vs EMU @ HOME = 20 Points

Rourke gets better each week and his total offensive production numbers are very impressive compared to Woodside. Next to the real Miami; NIU will be the best team Toledo has played.

It will be close if Toledo wins, they could sneak in at 8-1 with a few Top 25 loses this weekend.

NIU is no slouch and has a far more impressive schedule than Toledo to date. Win at Nebraska, 3 pt loss at BC and only 6 at SDSU.

-If Toledo wins tonight- decent chance they are in at least one Poll
- Rourke > Woodside in point production TD's

Could be a 100+ point game

Toledo gave up 50 to 2-7 Tulsa.

If they hang on to the ball I like our chances. TO's were the difference vs CMU and Purdue

Last Edited: 11/2/2017 4:04:18 PM by DublinCat

OU87

Deciduous Forest Cat
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/2/2017 4:15:35 PM

DublinCat wrote:

Again, our offense scored 6 points in regulation versus EMU. I liked our overtime performance, but two drives that start in ideal field position aren't a good indication of offensive prowess. This comparison is not valid.

DublinCat
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/2/2017 4:55:16 PM

EMU was Rourke's second game as a Bobcat. Two of his top 3 WR's from Tuesday night's game were unavailable vs EMU. It's not a direct comparison but Rourke took control and won the EMU game.

Current QBR

SO - Rourke 79.3
RSR- Woodside 80.0

Rourke currently leads the nation among QB's with 16 Rushing TD's to #2 Lamar Jackson's 14

(Does not look like a stretch to say Rourke is the best QB in the MAC) He is still learning the offense

Clearly the Top 2 rated QB's in the MAC will face each other next week.

Last Edited: 11/2/2017 5:24:50 PM by DublinCat

OU87

El Gato Roberto
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/2/2017 7:54:51 PM

A wise man told me once..:To be the best you must beat the best....Sometimes twice.

BELIEVE.

Go Bobcats!

"The name's Ohio University, but everybody calls me Ohio. Any of you guys call me Ohio U, and I'll kill you."

bobcatsquared
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/2/2017 8:43:55 PM

El Gato Roberto wrote:

A wise man told me once..:To be the best you must beat the best....Sometimes twice.

BELIEVE.

Go Bobcats!

Another wise man was known for saying. . . "To be the man, you've got to beat the man. WOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!"

bshot44
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/2/2017 8:48:29 PM

Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:

DublinCat wrote:

Thank you!

That EMU game was ugly offensively.

Woodside is torching NIU with 315 yds thru 3Q.

Rourke hasnt thrown for 300 all year.

I understand your unabashed faithfulness to the green and white...and I respect it.

But Woodside is one of 10 finalists for Unitas Award. This kid is legit.

I'm guessing he'll throw for at least 400+ next week.

Question is, will Ohio be able to match them?

This will also be biggest game Rourke has started in ... how will he handle big game? We don't know yet.

I'll happily crown Rourke when he's earned it...but Woodside rightfully owns the best QB in MAC label right now and it's honestly not even close

Mark Lembright '85
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/2/2017 9:13:45 PM

Woodside is better right now, no doubt about it.

But at least Rourke has narrowed the gap. 2 months ago Rourke wasn�t even in the conversation about the best QBs in the MAC.

Here�s a question: Of the two, who has the higher ceiling?

bshot44
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/2/2017 10:34:25 PM

Mark Lembright '85 wrote:

Woodside a senior

Rourke a sophomore

Woodside is legit NFL prospect who is finalist for best QB in the country

Rourke has work to do to reach that level

Two months ago OUr coaching staff had him on the bench. That's baffling.

Toledo has a better national profile than Ohio ... bigger stage for Woodside thanks to big wins, tougher schedule, more opportunities for visibility.

Out of Conf games Woodside has played in:

Arkansas
Cincinnati
Iowa State
BYU
Miami Fl
Fresno St
Nevada
Tulsa

Rourke won't get that beating UMass & Kansas. He'll get UVa, UC, Pitt, Marshall, UMass, UL Lafayette next couple years. Not a great stage there ... most likely no ranked teams.

Woodside also 26-9 (18-3) in his 3 years as a starter (so far).

Rourke will need to be really good to match those numbers ... not to mention start putting up 400yd passing games or Jordan Lynch-type 200/100 games.

Not sure OUr offense will allow for that.

I think he can definitely etch his name in Ohio record books & go down as maybe best in Bobcat history if he continues on this track.

But let's remember ... it's only 7 games as a starter.

Let's just see what the rest of this season holds

Doc Bobcat
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/2/2017 10:58:42 PM

bshot44 wrote:

Mark Lembright '85 wrote:

Let�s just enjoy the now and quit wringing OUr hands and fretting about stupid stupid stuff.

My God man we are 7-2 with a QB...RBs...and an offensive line that is very good

Last Edited: 11/2/2017 11:01:56 PM by Doc Bobcat

OhioCatFan
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/3/2017 1:12:50 AM

Doc Bobcat wrote:

Let�s just enjoy the now and quit wringing OUr hands and fretting about stupid stupid stuff.

My God man we are 7-2 with a QB...RBs...and an offensive line that is very good

+1

I, also, choose to look at the optimistic side. What bshot44 says is not not true, it's just that I'd rather dwell on the fact that we've found a great QB, who is putting up incredible numbers, and has our offense working at a level unheard of since you and I, Doc, were undergraduate students. Yes, Toledo will be our toughest game so far this year. Tougher than Purdue. But, Rourke more experienced now, and we will be playing at home. We'll be a ten point or so underdog, but I don't discount our chances of winning. I may end up being wrong, but I'd rather go to Peden stadium with an optimistic attitude and try to root home a victory, than show up with a defeatest attitude so I could sit the seat of the scornful and say I told you so if we lose. GO OHIO!

L.C.
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/3/2017 9:53:07 AM

bshot44 wrote:

...Two months ago OUr coaching staff had him on the bench. That's baffling. ...

What is baffling? He was new to the system, and had a lot to learn. QB takes more time to learn a new system than any other position, by far. Remember last Spring, when bobcatblitz told us it was ludicrous to believe that anyone but Maxwell would be the starter, and the Rourke was far, far behind? Remember in the fall, when Arkley continually told us that Rourke was improving, and getting closer, but still well behind Maxwell?

It's a credit to Rourke that he's advanced as fast as he has. He came in in the Spring so that he could have more time to learn the system, and learn the other players. He worked hard and progresses. He earned a split of time against Hampton, and then when Maxwell struggled in Game 2, he played well and took the job for good. About the only significant playing time Rourke missed was the first quarter of the Purdue game.

Was it really baffling? I went back to the preseason threads to see if there were calls for Rourke to be the starter, but no, Rourke's rise was faster than anyone, or almost anyone expected, though a few people did expect him to eventually rise to the top. In the "bold predictions" thread, Valley Cat expected Rourke to start at least five games. I predicted that both Rourke and Maxwell would have a pass efficiency over 140 (currently Maxwell is 146, Rourke is 136). In the "hunt for a QB thread" there was a lot of pessimism about the QB position in general, but Wes made a near-perfect call and predicted Rourke would become the starter midway through the Purdue game (near perfect because he said it would be after interceptions, but it was after incompletions). I said Maxwell would be improved, but it wouldn't be enough to hang onto the job as Rourke was going to develop into something outstanding. In the Fall Camp thread, Rourke isn't mentioned much until the last couple pages, where Ted said he looked good in the scrimmage, Doc reported that Frank had a lot of confidence in Rourke, and I speculated that Rourke might be be in the NFL someday.

Then, I looked at the Hampton thread and after, to see who, after actually having seen Rourke, was calling for more Rourke. shabamon praised his pocket awareness. Doc declared Rourke to be "the man". C. Money was "undecided on Rourke". crackerbaby was pleasantly surprised by Rourke, but liked Maxwell better. Then there was the "Maxwell named starter [for Purdue]", DFC predicted Rourke might be the starter in a couple weeks, but no one disagreed with the choice of Maxwell.

It wasn't baffling at all. Rourke became the starter because he earned it, and he became it as soon as he earned it.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

OhioCatFan
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/3/2017 11:57:49 PM

+1 to L.C. ^^

bshot44
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/5/2017 3:07:50 PM

DublinCat wrote:

It will be close if Toledo wins, they could sneak in at 8-1 with a few Top 25 loses this weekend.

....

-If Toledo wins tonight- decent chance they are in at least one Poll

Toledo didn't move in the AP poll.

Still 29th.

They won't be ranked unless they annihilate Ohio and roll to 11-1.... and even then it's questionable.

Deciduous Forest Cat
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/5/2017 4:32:58 PM

If they get to 11 and 1 then they will undoubtedly be ranked

DublinCat
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/5/2017 8:08:05 PM

Iowa winning did not help. There will be more openings over the next few weeks. 10-2 is likely to get you in even for G5 teams with close loses to P5. It is very difficult at any level to go 11-1 or 10-2. There will most likely be a 10-2 P5 team in the final four within a year or two.

The MAC's only chance this year will end Wednesday.

Last Edited: 11/5/2017 8:15:21 PM by DublinCat

OU87

Deciduous Forest Cat
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RE: West Championship to be decided tonight

Posted: 11/5/2017 8:53:32 PM

DublinCat wrote:

Iowa winning did not help.

That is a matter of perspective. It sure helped my mood.

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