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Topic: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Topic: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

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Ted Thompson
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Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/1/2017 10:25:54 AM

Use this thread to talk about anything game-related. For away games, we'll have a separate travel thread.

Date: October 7th, 2017 2:00 PM

Opponent: Central Michigan (2-3, 0-1 MAC)

Site: Peden Stadium

TV: None

Radio: Ohio Radio

Webcast: ESPN3.com

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Diamond Cat
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/1/2017 11:47:52 AM

Anyone know if Family Packs are still available?

Wasn't able to make the first couple of home games but looking to make CMU and Kant.

Mike Johnson
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/1/2017 1:54:31 PM

Diamond Cat wrote:

Anyone know if Family Packs are still available?

Wasn't able to make the first couple of home games but looking to make CMU and Kant.

Suggest you phone ticket office tomorrow morning.

http://www.facebook.com/mikejohnson.author

L.C.
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/1/2017 5:11:49 PM

Vegas starts Ohio as a ten point favorite. TeamRanking shows Ohio with a 86.1% chance of winning (got to include that decimal to give the impression that the number is actually that accurate). They also show Ohio with a 15.9% chance of MACC, down slightly from last week.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

C Money
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/1/2017 7:28:20 PM

L.C. wrote:

The spread is up to Ohio -12 already. With the way this defense gives up points late, that line screams backdoor cover.

71 BOBCAT
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/1/2017 8:50:52 PM

I am less concerned about the spread as I am that we just get the W!

GO BOBCATS

OUcats82
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/1/2017 11:12:42 PM

Just win this game! By 1 or 100. Winnable game if the Cats show up and do what they are capable of!

Whether it was because they were in a golden era of sorts with Dan Lefevour or have just found a way to win some wacky games, Central has really Ohio's number both under Frank but also historically overall.

If this is indeed true, we are 5-24-2 all time against the Chips:

http://www.winsipedia.com/ohio/vs/central-michigan

Would love to see a solid win on Saturday. Miami was able to score a pretty convincing win in Mt. Pleasant a few weeks ago. Maybe get a small glimpse in how we are progressing along in comparison with our biggest challenge in the East. A win could really help in a quest back to Motown

Ohio-The State University

bshot44
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/2/2017 10:51:48 AM

C Money wrote:

L.C. wrote:

The spread is up to Ohio -12 already. With the way this defense gives up points late, that line screams backdoor cover.

This will probably be the case most of the season.

Let's be real. Ohio piled up 59 points vs. Hampton and 58 vs. UMass and 42 vs. Kansas .... not exactly murderer's row in terms of defense.

While the offense looks to be improved ... let's not forget they didn't score a TD in regulation vs. EMU and managed basically garbage time points vs. Purdue.

This week is a chance for Ohio to either show their MAC dominance against a CMU team that isn't awful (i.e. UMass, Hampton or Kansas) but they aren't as good as EMU.

I'm not sure Ohio is good yet .... bad yet (I don't think they are) ... or middle of the road (as usual ... and most likely the case)

I'm not sure this team is good enough to beat Miami, Toledo, WMU or NIU? I'm pretty confident they are "bad" enough to lose to all four of those teams.

I think there are more signs pointing towards them being good ... but getting lit up by a UMass team that was averaging less than 21 points per game isn't confidence boosting.

And it's not like UMass was playing some heavy hitters. Old Dominion's defense is pretty awful and they managed only 7 points AT HOME to them.

50 vs. Ohio?!?! And they screwed up a lot of opportunity for more.

I just don't get the buzz that Ohio is an elite MAC team ... but they are fighters and will grind away in every game. Just not sure if that will be enough to break thru that 8-5, 5-3/6-2 ceiling (and loss in the MACC/bowl game)

Pataskala
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/2/2017 12:57:41 PM

The secondary really needs to step up this week. CMU is 32nd in 1A in passing (for comparison, UMass is 19th and EMU is 30th and they both gave us fits). They protect the QB well; just seven sacks in five games. We should be able to stop their ground game (141 yds/game), and run against them (they're giving up 191/game). Our QBs shouldn't have to worry about pass protection; CMU's averaging just one sack a game. Pass defense will be the key for us.

We've lost two straight to them at home and haven't beaten them in Athens since 2000. But I still think this is our best chance to beat these guys in several years. Sagarin has Ohio about even with Syracuse and BC, and better than Fiami. All three handled CMU pretty easily. Still, I think the betting lines are off because these guys seem to have our number. If we win, it'll be by a TD or less.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

OhioCatFan
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/2/2017 7:57:16 PM

bshot44, looked at from another angle, the mighty Tennessee Vols from the vaunted SEC could only score 17 on UMass. How does that fit into your calculus?

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

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L.C.
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/2/2017 8:58:07 PM

Looking at the MAC Stats, not a lot jumps out at me.
http://static.getsomemaction.com/custompages/stats/2017FB...

One thing that does is that CMU has nearly as many offensive yards as Ohio, but only half the points, which is odd. Another is that Ohio leads the league in rushing, and is second in rushing defense.

Ohio also leads the league in pass defense...oh wait, big numbers are bad, right? Seriously, Ohio has had a good rush defense, and been well ahead in most games, so other teams have been throwing the ball a lot, every game. CMU has been pretty one-dimensional, getting most of their yards through the air. I expect that to continue this game.

I think Ohio is going to win this one 45-28, and CMU will put up 250-300 yards through the air, but have a lot of drives stall out.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

bshot44
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/3/2017 11:53:22 AM

OhioCatFan wrote:

bshot44, looked at from another angle, the mighty Tennessee Vols from the vaunted SEC could only score 17 on UMass. How does that fit into your calculus?

They also only allowed 13 points.

And I wouldn't exactly call Tennessee "mighty"

They're a full-blown dumpster fire who failed to get into the red zone vs. Georgia and most likely will see their head coach get fired before we hit November.

bshot44
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/3/2017 12:12:06 PM

L.C. wrote:

Ohio has let up:

� 49 plays of 10+ yards thru the air (3rd worst in MAC)
� 21 plays of 20+ yards thru the air (worst in MAC)
� 7 plays of 30+ yards thru the air (bottom half of MAC)

They haven't been torched for more than 40+ ... but I'm guessing that's because most teams already have dinged them for chunk yards to get them closer than 40 yards

202 pass attempts against ... most in MAC ... and I'm guessing it's more because teams are attacking Ohio's weakness than they are "behind in the game" (EMU wasn't behind ... Purdue wasn't behind ... UMass was successful passing even before they were behind 19 pts )

114 completed passes by opponents is most in MAC (many, many more than most teams)

1407 is most yards allowed

12 TDs is most allowed

3 INT is 2nd to last in MAC

281.4 is most yards allowed in MAC

You can break that down into 1st half numbers ...

Ohio 3rd most passing yards allowing in 1st Half
� 6 TDs (2nd worst)
� 8 25+yd passes (2nd worst)
� 98 attempts (most in MAC)

If you break down into 2nd half only .... Ohio is near the bottom of the league in all pass defense categories.

I know ... they are 4-1 ... and yes, some of those numbers are inflated because of UMass and KU blowouts ... but the bottom line is, this pass defense isn't very good.

It's been enough to get thru the creampuff schedule they've played at 4-1 ...

And sadly, could be good enough to get thru most ofcreampuff MAC East ....

But is it good enough to compete with good teams (I think Purdue has proven otherwise)

PS

Sagarin ratings
Kansas 130
UMass 150
Hampton 227
EMU 107

If Ohio can't defend pass against some of the worst FBS teams...sometimes you just have to accept the obvious

Last Edited: 10/3/2017 12:23:39 PM by bshot44

Pataskala
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/3/2017 1:22:32 PM

L.C. wrote:

Two things stand out for me. CMU has only a 29.6% conversion rate on 3rd down; Ohio is 47%. CMU is converting only 55.6% of its 4th downs (5 of 9); Ohio is 80% (4 of 5). We're moving the chains past 2nd down and they're not. Yet, we're about even with them in first downs: Ohio 111; CMU 109. So we need to keep them from getting big plays, especially on 1st and 2nd down.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

L.C.
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/3/2017 2:20:21 PM

bshot44 wrote:

... and I'm guessing it's more because teams are attacking Ohio's weakness than they are "behind in the game" ...

Certainly it's true that Ohio's strong run defense also encourages teams to attack Ohio's weak passing defense. Some aspects of this team have been better than I expected, others have been worse. The pass defense is in the latter category. I expected improvement from last year, but at this point, it's worse.

Ohio's pass defense numbers may improve from here. The pass efficiency of Ohio's remaining foes, and the percentage of their yards that have come from passing, of Ohio's remaining foes:
CMU - 115.4 67%
BGSU - 106.8 70%
Kent - 118.2 40%
Miami - 131.8 64%
Toledo - 162.9 65%
Akron - 113.5 61%
Buffalo - 137.9 52%

CMU, BGSU, and Akron all pass a lot, but haven't been that efficient at it thus far. Kent and Buffalo are more running teams, and may be uncomfortable passing 70% of the time. Those teams may make Ohio's numbers look somewhat better by the end of the year.

The teams that are the most worrying are Miami and Toledo, as both pass a lot, and are good at it.

Last Edited: 10/3/2017 5:14:33 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

bshot44
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/3/2017 3:55:22 PM

L.C. wrote:

The teams that are the most worrying are Miami and Toledo, as both pass a lot, and are good at it.

and ironically could be the two games that keeps Ohio from the MAC title game

L.C.
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/3/2017 5:18:23 PM

Ohio definitely needs to beat Miami to have the best chance of getting to the championship game, but Buffalo also appears to be a dark horse threat. If Ohio does get to the MACC, I'd rather play NIU or WMU.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

OhioCatFan
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/3/2017 6:38:48 PM

bshot44 wrote:

OhioCatFan wrote:

bshot44, looked at from another angle, the mighty Tennessee Vols from the vaunted SEC could only score 17 on UMass. How does that fit into your calculus?

The words "mighty" and "vaunted" in my statement above were said with a half-smile and a tad of sarcasm; however, I think my point still stands that they kept a SEC team to just 17 points on the road and then allowed 58 to OHIO at home. Not trying to read too much into that; however, I think it's as valuable a bit of data as some of the other stats thrown around in this thread. Got to look at all the data not just hand-pick stuff that proves a particular bias one way or the other. Again, I'm not saying that this offensive data means all that much, but it is a needed counterbalance,IMHO.

bshot44
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/4/2017 10:40:44 AM

OhioCatFan wrote:

I assumed there was a level of sarcasm in there when referring to mighty Tennessee.

But yes ... I agree handpicking data to fulfill some bias is dangerous.

But my stats weren't to show a bias that our pass defense is pretty lousy.

It's pretty much fact.

UMass and Kansas are two of the worst football teams in the country ...

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

And those two teams threw for 746 yards and 7 TDs (2 INT) ...

I don't care what the score was in those games ... Ohio wasn't rolling out a 5th string defense against them. Those two teams moved the ball pretty efficiently thru the air against them.

It's a pretty glaring weakness ... and one that has been a problem for a while for Ohio.

EMU threw for 300+

Purdue threw for 295 ... and it would've been more but they mercifully started to run the ball in the 2H to eat clock.

It's not like Purdue, Kansas, UMass and EMU are elite offenses. In fact, all three of them had their best passing games of the season (vs. FBS) opponents vs. Ohio.

They are ranked 18, 19 and 30th respectively in the country in passing ... propped up partially by the inflated numbers they put up vs. Ohio. And for context, Ohio is #85 in passing.

And Ohio's remaining scheduled is littered with below average ... or bad football teams.

Akron #107
CMU #113
Kent #117
BG #128

Only Buffalo (#85), Miami (#96) and Toledo (#50) are Top 100. (Ohio is #74, EMU is #93 and Purdue is #57)

SIDENOTE: Again, Ohio has 5 of the worst 20 teams in the country on their schedule.

My point is that if KU, UMass and EMU are torching Ohio's pass defense ... what will Miami and Toledo do to it?

Ohio has to figure out a way to defend the pass more efficiently than they are now.

That's not a bias ... that's just a fact.

L.C.
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/4/2017 11:04:31 AM

bshot44 wrote:

...
My point is that if KU, UMass and EMU are torching Ohio's pass defense ... what will Miami and Toledo do to it?

Ohio has to figure out a way to defend the pass more efficiently than they are now.

That's not a bias ... that's just a fact.

Indeed. Otherwise we will get those "Fire Burrow" threads.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

OhioCatFan
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/4/2017 11:22:36 AM

Just took a quick look at Kansas stats vs Ohio and then WVU the following weekend. I was surprised at what I found:

Jayhawers against OHIO:

319 yards passing
427 total yards

Jayhawkers against WVU:

194 yards passing
561 total yards

mailto:https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/gametracker/recap/NCAAF_20170916_KANSAS@OHIO /

mailto:https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/gametracker/recap/NCAAF_20170923_WVU@KANSAS /

Last Edited: 10/4/2017 11:36:19 AM by OhioCatFan

bshot44
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/4/2017 11:30:26 AM

OhioCatFan wrote:

Just took a quick look at Kansas stats vs Ohio and then WVU the following weekend. I was surprised at what I found:

Jayhawers against OHIO:

249 yards passing
445 total yards

Jayhawkers against WVU:

194 yards passing
561 total yards

mailto:mailto:https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/gametracker/recap/NCAAF_20170916_KANSAS@OHIO /

mailto:mailto:https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/gametracker/recap/NCAAF_20170923_WVU@KANSAS /

I'm confused by this? Are you pointing out what KU did vs. Ohio/WVU or what Ohio/WVU did vs. KU

Ohio vs. KU
254 yds passing (OHIO)
196 yds rushing (OHIO)
450 total yards (OHIO)
343 yds passing (KU)
108 yds rushing (KU)
451 total yards (KU)

http://ohiobobcats.com/sports/fball/2017-18/boxscores/201...

WVU vs. KU
197 yds passing (KU)
367 yds rushing (KU)
564 total yds (KU)
347 yds passing (WVU)
288 yds rushing (WVU)
635 total yds (WVU)

http://wvusports.com/boxscore.aspx?id=4134&path=football

Last Edited: 10/4/2017 11:33:18 AM by bshot44

OhioCatFan
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/4/2017 11:40:38 AM

Sorry, bshot44, I copied down the wrong column for Kansas versus Ohio. I've now corrected it. Still, it's interesting that Kansas had more total yards against WVU than Ohio.

The final scores were not too dissimilar either, though WVU didn't allow Kansas a gift TD at the end either:

Ohio 42 Kansas 30
WVU 56 Kansas 34

Last Edited: 10/4/2017 11:43:36 AM by OhioCatFan

bshot44
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/4/2017 11:48:31 AM

OhioCatFan wrote:

Games were kind of similar, to a degree.

WVU jumped a huge lead (35-10 at half) and then fell asleep at the wheel and let KU climb back into it (42-34 midway thru 4Q) before they woke up and poured on two late scores.

WVU offense is also much different than Ohio in terms of how they get their production.

They ran 82 plays vs. KU

Ohio only ran 64.

Also WVU punted 5 times, giving KU more possessions. Ohio is more ball control and only punted twice.

So KU had more possessions vs. WVU (16) than vs. Ohio (11)

Last Edited: 10/4/2017 11:53:46 AM by bshot44

Deciduous Forest Cat
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RE: Official Game 6 Thread: Central Michigan

Posted: 10/4/2017 12:47:46 PM

bshot44 wrote:

OhioCatFan wrote:

WVU certainly put up some huge overall numbers that we couldn't match. Kansas was down 35-13 at half, WVU's total boosted by an easy pick 6 right before the half. There was actually quite a stretch of time where Kansas controlled the game, which was the part I watched/followed. Kansas spent a decent portion of the second half within a score of WVU. but WVU put up late scores on Kansas turnovers to arrive at the final spread. The game wasn't over until Kansas, within a score around the five minute mark, hit a huge play to get into WVU territory, but fumbled at the end of it.

Edit: Kansas was down 2 scores when they fumbled, but that did pretty much put a lid on it.

Last Edited: 10/4/2017 12:53:16 PM by Deciduous Forest Cat

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