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Topic:  OT: You don't have to be a 5-star to be a #1

Topic:  OT: You don't have to be a 5-star to be a #1
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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  OT: You don't have to be a 5-star to be a #1
   Posted: 5/1/2017 12:13:35 PM 
Of the 32 first-round picks in this year's draft, only ten were 5-star recruits by 247 Sports, 12 were 4-star, six were 3-star, two were 2-star, and two were NRs. Corey Davis was a 2-star, and I think ESPN said that WMU was his only offer.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2017-nfl-d... /

Some guys just blossom later and others get the right coaching.

We will get by.
We will get by.
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colobobcat66
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Location: Watching the bobcats run outside my window., CO
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: You don't have to be a 5-star to be a #1
   Posted: 5/1/2017 12:33:43 PM 
Pataskala wrote:
Of the 32 first-round picks in this year's draft, only ten were 5-star recruits by 247 Sports, 12 were 4-star, six were 3-star, two were 2-star, and two were NRs. Corey Davis was a 2-star, and I think ESPN said that WMU was his only offer.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2017-nfl-d... /

Some guys just blossom later and others get the right coaching.


We live in the Information Age, but if recruits don't take advantage of it, they remain unknowns. Marketing is part of the game-money to get noticed.

Last Edited: 5/1/2017 12:34:55 PM by colobobcat66
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: You don't have to be a 5-star to be a #1
   Posted: 5/1/2017 1:27:06 PM 
Worse, the ratings lose accuracy quickly as you move lower in the rankings, where the analysts spend a lot less time per recruit on evaluations. That, plus the fact that the group of athletes a school like Ohio gets is non random, makes the annual exercise of looking at recruiting rankings of entertainment value only. In a recent thread on the recruiting forum, I showed that there is a negative correlation between the rankings and how the athletes perform on the field for Ohio:
http://www.bobcatattack.com/messageboard/topic.asp?FromPa...

This is a relationship I have consistently found, not just a unique data set. Why does it happen? Here are some plausible reasons:
1. The three star athletes that a G5 school gets tend to be the lower end 3 star recruits, not a random sample of 3-star recruits. As such, there tends to be little difference between them and the 2-star athletes.
2. Analysts spend most of their time on 3-star and up recruits, so they tend to miss some good players in the 2-star and under pool.
3. The two-star and under recruits that Ohio, and other G5 schools, take are not random 2-star athletes. They tend to be the best of the 2-star recruits.
4. The unrated players tend to be late blossoming players, and when Ohio goes into that pool, they tend to be looking for true gems, not just another body. That's where Ohio has found players like Carrie, Brazill, Basham, and Brown.

From my post on the recruiting board:
LC wrote:
... This doesn't mean that highly rated players are always bad, nor that low rated players are always great, just that the low rated players have tended to be a bit better, on average. To illustrate the differences, here are are two lists. The first is the players who had 247Composite 3-star ratings, and the second is the unrated players. There are good players in both groups, but the very best players are in the unrated group, and there are less players who never were starters in the unrated group:
Sebastian Smith .85
Joey Duckworth .84
Jared McCray .84
Joe Lowery .82
Robbie Walker .81
Zach Murdock .81
John Tanner .81
Justin Wyatt .80
Greg Windham .80
Corey Quallen .80

Unrated players:
Tarrell Basham .70
Blair Brown .70
Davon Henry .70
Toran Davis .70
Maleek Irons .70
Brendon Cope .70
Kylan Nelson .70

Last Edited: 5/1/2017 1:28:19 PM by L.C.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Kevin Finnegan
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Location: Rockton, IL
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: You don't have to be a 5-star to be a #1
   Posted: 5/1/2017 3:08:47 PM 
The difficulty with this statement is that there are not often even enough 5-star players to fill out an entire round in the draft, so the premise is immediately selling a false narrative. If you look at ESPN's Top 300 for this year, there are only 15 five-star players. Thus, for 10 in one year to be 1st rounders says that the recruiting judgment was pretty spot-on at the top of the chart.

Of the ESPN 300 players from 2014 who had five-stars (this would be their first eligible draft), there were nine in this draft. Six are returning to school. Of the nine in the draft, five were first round selections (Garrett, Fournette, Peppers, Jackson, Humphrey). Three were second round selections (Robinson, Jalen Tabor, and Raekwon McMillan). The other player, Speedy Noil, went undrafted altogether. He's the only real miss from the scouting numbers from 2014.

Last Edited: 5/1/2017 3:25:06 PM by Kevin Finnegan
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: You don't have to be a 5-star to be a #1
   Posted: 5/1/2017 6:11:28 PM 
Finn, that's pretty remarkable accuracy, I'd have to agree. I've always said that their accuracy at the top end is much better than the accuracy at the bottom end. That isn't too surprising since that is their point of emphasis.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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allen
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  Message Not Read  RE: OT: You don't have to be a 5-star to be a #1
   Posted: 5/1/2017 6:25:32 PM 
You don't have to be 5-star, you have to be a hardworker. A lot of 5, 4 and three star guys have better measurables coming out of high school, it is all about the work that you put in. Brown got continually better and so did Basham. Everytime I watched Corey Davis, all the announcers would talk about was his commitment to excellence. Before AJ injury last year, the coaches stated that he had improved his 40 yard dash by 2 tenths of a second in the off season. Players that flash must continue to improve mentally and physically.

Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes
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