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General User Member Since: 8/31/2005 Location: United States Post Count: 10,470 Status: Offline     Adjusting Ohio records for schedule difficulty    Posted: 12/28/2016 11:36:23 PM  People have commented that schedules were harder "back in the old days" so that you can't compare coaches straight up. To adjust for the schedule, I computed a "predicted wins" for each year using the following formula: Home MAC game: 60% chance of win Away MAC game: 40% chance of win Home G5 game: 60% chance of win Away G5 game: 40% chance of win Home P5 game: 30% chance of win Away P5 game: 10% chance of win Home Top 25 game: 10% chance of win Away Top 25 game: no chance of win Home FCS game: 90% chance of win Away FCS game: 70% chance of win I came with the the following for projected win percentages by coach: Wise .611 (actual .361) Widdoes .516 (actual .542) Hess .510 (actual .542) Kappes .436 (actual .273) Burke .468 (actual .477) Bryant .436 (actual .182) Lichtenberg .465 (actual .164) Grobe .445 (actual .500) Knorr .443 (actual .239) Solich .471 (actual .568) Last 5 years .488 (actual .585) So, yes, the schedules are easier now, but so are the winning percentages. Coaches that won more than predicted are Widdoes, Hess, Burke, Grobe, and Solich. Incidentally, not all of the Solich schedules have been easy. 2005 was one of the hardest since WWII with Northwestern, Pitt, and Virginia Tech. Last Edited: 12/29/2016 12:11:53 AM by L.C. “We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus Back to Top allen General User Member Since: 1/24/2006 Post Count: 4,635 Status: Offline     RE: Adjusting Ohio records for schedule difficulty    Posted: 12/29/2016 12:13:16 AM  L.C. wrote: People have commented that schedules were harder "back in the old days" so that you can't compare coaches straight up. To adjust for the schedule, I computed a "predicted wins" for each year using the following formula: Home MAC game: 60% chance of win Away MAC game: 40% chance of win Home G5 game: 60% chance of win Away G5 game: 40% chance of win Home P5 game: 30% chance of win Away P5 game: 10% chance of win Home Top 25 game: 10% chance of win Away Top 25 game: no chance of win Home FCS game: 90% chance of win Away FCS game: 70% chance of win I came with the the following for projected win percentages by coach: Wise .611 (actual .361) Widdoes .516 (actual .542) Hess .510 (actual .542) Kappes .436 (actual .273) Burke .468 (actual .477) Bryant .436 (actual .182) Lichtenberg .465 (actual .164) Grobe .445 (actual .500) Knorr .443 (actual .239) Solich .471 (actual .568) Last 5 years .488 (actual .585) So, yes, the schedules are easier now, but so are the winning percentages. Coaches that won more that predicted are Widdoes, Hess, Burke, Grobe, and Solich. You might have just stepped on Bcat2's toes. Nobody, I mean nobody casts a hypothetical that shows this staff in a negative light. Just Kidding Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes Back to Top L.C. General User Member Since: 8/31/2005 Location: United States Post Count: 10,470 Status: Offline     RE: Adjusting Ohio records for schedule difficulty    Posted: 12/29/2016 12:30:06 AM  I wasn't trying to cast the staff in a good or bad light. I was just trying to answer the question of whether the schedules were harder back in the day, and yes, they are, by about 1/2 win a year. Of course, no staff wins at exactly the predicted level - some win more, some win less. “We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus Back to Top allen General User Member Since: 1/24/2006 Post Count: 4,635 Status: Offline     RE: Adjusting Ohio records for schedule difficulty    Posted: 12/29/2016 12:41:46 AM  L.C. wrote: I wasn't trying to cast the staff in a good or bad light. I was just trying to answer the question of whether the schedules were harder back in the day, and yes, they are, by about 1/2 win a year. Of course, no staff wins at exactly the predicted level - some win more, some win less. +1 Nobody despises to lose more than I do. That's got me into trouble over the years, but it also made a man of mediocre ability into a pretty good coach. Woody Hayes Back to Top Bcat2 General User Member Since: 7/6/2010 Post Count: 4,295 Status: Offline     RE: Adjusting Ohio records for schedule difficulty    Posted: 12/29/2016 12:42:58 AM  allen wrote: L.C. wrote: People have commented that schedules were harder "back in the old days" so that you can't compare coaches straight up. To adjust for the schedule, I computed a "predicted wins" for each year using the following formula: Home MAC game: 60% chance of win Away MAC game: 40% chance of win Home G5 game: 60% chance of win Away G5 game: 40% chance of win Home P5 game: 30% chance of win Away P5 game: 10% chance of win Home Top 25 game: 10% chance of win Away Top 25 game: no chance of win Home FCS game: 90% chance of win Away FCS game: 70% chance of win I came with the the following for projected win percentages by coach: Wise .611 (actual .361) Widdoes .516 (actual .542) Hess .510 (actual .542) Kappes .436 (actual .273) Burke .468 (actual .477) Bryant .436 (actual .182) Lichtenberg .465 (actual .164) Grobe .445 (actual .500) Knorr .443 (actual .239) Solich .471 (actual .568) Last 5 years .488 (actual .585) So, yes, the schedules are easier now, but so are the winning percentages. Coaches that won more that predicted are Widdoes, Hess, Burke, Grobe, and Solich. You might have just stepped on Bcat2's toes. Nobody, I mean nobody casts a hypothetical that shows this staff in a negative light. Just Kidding allen, look again. These numbers put Solich in a very positive light. "Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK Back to Top Buckeye to Bobcat General User Member Since: 9/10/2013 Post Count: 1,803 Status: Offline     RE: Adjusting Ohio records for schedule difficulty    Posted: 12/29/2016 12:44:12 AM  You have to remember as well, schedules are usually set 4-5 years in advance in terms of the big boys, but in 2005 that was a Knorr schedule. Solich's effect started coming 2007 or 2008. So yes, 05 was the toughest, but that was set up by the powers that be 4 years prior. Not trying to dispel Solich's scheduling, if anything he grabs P5 teams right on their upswing when you're supposed to catch em in the dumps. Ah well, at least he picks right in terms of that. Back to Top L.C. General User Member Since: 8/31/2005 Location: United States Post Count: 10,470 Status: Offline     RE: Adjusting Ohio records for schedule difficulty    Posted: 12/29/2016 2:02:27 AM  Yes, I know that 2005-6 were set up in advance, by Knorr/Boeh, and I recall that Solich wasn't too happy because he felt it would be hard to be successful with schedules like 2005. The more recent schedules reflect where he thinks the team is. I note that we're seeing more difficult schedules for the years ahead than we saw in recent years. “We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus Back to Top Monroe Slavin General User Member Since: 12/20/2004 Location: Oxnard, CA Post Count: 9,121 Status: Offline     RE: Adjusting Ohio records for schedule difficulty    Posted: 12/29/2016 2:07:31 AM  Hey, let's get lost in theoretics, splinter statistics, and predictions. Try this: 12 years without a MACC, lost 3 of the last four with the one win being not much to brag about, a worse record than the prior year, and 6 losses despite a slew of All-MAC players and the usual pancake schedule. You may now return to your regularly scheduled fantasy. Where's the band?! WHERE"S THE BAND?! DesignspiritUSA.com The Pets On The Go Collection of pet gear travel bags The Holiday Tote Bigg Bagg Collection--over-sized, reversible, extra pockets; now love carrying packages as much as you love shopping! Back to Top Paul Graham General User Member Since: 1/18/2005 Location: The Plains, OH Post Count: 1,424 Status: Offline     RE: Adjusting Ohio records for schedule difficulty    Posted: 12/29/2016 2:09:45 AM  What's missing here is the strength of opponents year over year...particularly MAC opponents. For example, this was a very down year for the MAC East and that allowed us a relatively unchallenged path to the MACC. I'd love to see a SoS year over year. 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