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Topic: Football playoffs

Topic: Football playoffs

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Alan Swank
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Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 8:30:22 AM

I sent this email to Kirby this morning. I'd be interested to hear what other posters think about the upcoming decision.

Kirby-

I hope this email finds you well. As you and the committee make the final decisions on the college football playoff participants today, I wanted to add my "two cents worth" to the discussion. To all but the most loyal die hard fans of a particular team, a conference championship is extremely important. Additionally beating a team head to head indicates that one team is better than the other unless of course the records of the teams are vastly different. With that in mind, Penn State, the Big 10 champion and winner of their game with Ohio State, should be one of the four teams in the playoff.

Your choices today won't please everyone. However, I honestly feel that placing a team that didn't even compete in its conference championship in the playoffs will either lead to a greater push for the inclusion of eight teams or to borrow from the latest presidential election, cultivate additional criticism that the system is rigged.

One last note. If a team from one of the "lesser" conferences has to win their league title to be considered for inclusion in the Cotton Bowl game this year, why shouldn't the same standard be applied to the final four teams?

Thanks and good luck with today's task.

Sincerely,

Alan Swank

Pataskala
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 10:54:14 AM

I was amazed that there was discussion about whether Washington would remain in the top four even after its blowout win over Colorado, with Michigan creeping bank into the mix. How they could possibly elevate a team that didn't play over a team that won its conference title convincingly is beyond me.

There doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason in how the committee makes its picks. They're just a group of people making up the rules as they go and voting their own biases. Sounds a lot like the voters in the AP and Coaches polls. I'd rather have a computer make the choices.

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OhioStunter
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 11:10:17 AM

I agree about the computer polls. The human factor can have just as many flaws in deciding. Ultimately, if the rankings stand as-is, all P5 teams with 1 loss or fewer will get in.

mcbin
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 11:53:38 AM

If it'll allow a once every decade 'WMU' can get in, I'll root for chaos, claims of 'rigged', and some very deserving teams being shut out for it to expand to 8 teams someday. I was sort of hoping for 3 BigTenfinity teams+Alabama to rile everyone up, I guess that won't happen with Clemson/UW wins. Oh well.

Victory
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 12:00:23 PM

Fans always talk about head-to-head. The trouble is Ohio St. and Penn St. don't exist in a vacuum. Michigan is also being evaluated and Penn St. got completely destroyed by them. By that argument Michigan goes. But then Ohio St. beat them and they go again. The committee's job is to consider the resume of 128 teams. It isn't to rank Ohio St. vs. Penn State in a vacuum. They might evaluate Ohio State vs. Clemson and Washington and say Ohio St. is clearly better and evaluate Penn St. against Clemson and Washington and find that they are clearly worse. What about evaluating Oklahoma against Penn St. (both two losses and a conference title - maybe Oklahoma is ahead because they didn't lose to a team like Pitt) and Ohio St. vs. Oklahoma (If H2H is the end all be all Ohio St. destroyed them.) Anyone who has actually had to sit in on an hours long debate where all teams need to be evaluated against all others knows that trying to apply H2H as something more than a tiebreaker is extremely problematic and basically impossible and often becomes an emotional appeal of fan bases who are able to focus in on who their team has defeated and mentally block out their own losses.

We have seen A LOT of shuffling at the top in the last weeks ranking. It is apparent that conference titles matter A LOT. This doesn't mean as Herbstreit says that Michigan might jump Washington. I think the opposite will happen. Clemson, Washington, Oklahoma and Penn St. will move up with respect to other teams. I think the upshot of that is Penn St will jump a Michigan team who destroyed them, would be favored to beat them, and has a higher strength of record due to Colorado OOC because the conference title will override that. I doubt they will jump Ohio St. because other than the title Ohio State's resume is much, much better. The argument, if there is one, is probably down to Ohio St and Penn St. If OSU is not #4 this week there was probably little argument for inclusion. We'll see if the title is enough for PSU to make up A TON of ground in a few minutes.

Last Edited: 12/4/2016 12:19:17 PM by Victory

rpbobcat
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 12:11:37 PM

The football playoff has been the hot topic on sports radio this morning.

The pundits all feel that OSU deserves to be in because PSU beat them by "luck" by blocking a field goal for a TD at the end of the game.

Monroe Slavin
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 12:16:56 PM

Fans in Ohio believe what they want to believe, regardless of the truth.

#electionsOSUMACtitlegame

Last Edited: 12/4/2016 12:17:19 PM by Monroe Slavin

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Victory
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 12:17:24 PM

rpbobcat wrote:

My guess is they will be but not for this reason. It is due to the crossover game against Wisconsin which Penn State didn't equal until last night. Penn State's in conference schedule was much, much weaker, Penn State's blowout loss to another contender, Penn State's pretty bad loss OOC to Pitt, and Ohio State's blowout of Oklahoma OOC. I think that if any of the four changes from last week that it will be moving PSU in and OSU out. My guess is that the four will be the same. Other that those two scenarios I don't see how the other scenarios people are discussing are even possible.

Monroe Slavin
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 12:29:12 PM

What's the weight of recency, of most recent wins/losses vs. those earlier in the year?

Victory
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 12:40:12 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

What's the weight of recency, of most recent wins/losses vs. those earlier in the year?

I would guess that it is pretty minimal. Stuff on the resume, which is mostly strength of record and conference titles, is the primary focus. The reason is that when you evaluate each of 128 teams against the other 127 they are the ones that can be consistently applied. Watched the rankings each week for three season this does seem to be the primary focus. ESPN's talking heads have not really caught on to this. A predictive element, which is very subjective and you try to keep subjectivity to a minimum, which considers who WOULD you beat rather than who HAVE you beaten is going to creep in there with some effect as well and recent play will matter in that. But in what sports does a loss in the first game of the regular season count less than as loss in the last game of the season?

Victory
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 12:44:10 PM

Victory wrote:

We have seen A LOT of shuffling at the top in the last weeks ranking. It is apparent that conference titles matter A LOT. This doesn't mean as Herbstreit says that Michigan might jump Washington. I think the opposite will happen. Clemson, Washington, Oklahoma and Penn St. will move up with respect to other teams. I think the upshot of that is Penn St will jump a Michigan team who destroyed them, would be favored to beat them, and has a higher strength of record due to Colorado OOC because the conference title will override that. I doubt they will jump Ohio St. because other than the title Ohio State's resume is much, much better. The argument, if there is one, is probably down to Ohio St and Penn St. If OSU is not #4 this week there was probably little argument for inclusion. We'll see if the title is enough for PSU to make up A TON of ground in a few minutes.

The B1G title was enough to jump the Michigan team that beat them h2h. It wasn't enough to bridge the chasm that otherwise existed between them and OSU as I think we could have guessed. But we really had not seen a similar scenario yet and didn't know for sure if conference titles were pretty much everything.

Considering OSU only fell behind Clemson I'd guess that PSU passing Washington, who was 3 spots ahead and beat a similarly ranked opponent and won a similarly ranked Conference, was not really all that much of a debate.

Last Edited: 12/4/2016 1:30:40 PM by Victory

Bcat2
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 12:49:37 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

What's the weight of recency, of most recent wins/losses vs. those earlier in the year?

Not sure of where you are going with this. You require the Ohio team to carry baggage going back four years. Remember, "No Excuses."

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

Alan Swank
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 1:06:14 PM

Bcat2 wrote:

Monroe Slavin wrote:

What's the weight of recency, of most recent wins/losses vs. those earlier in the year?

Not sure of where you are going with this. You require the Ohio team to carry baggage going back four years. Remember, "No Excuses."

It's very clear where he was going with this. He simply wanted to know if winning your last nine games including beating a team that got into the final four and winning your conference championship last night was more important than an early season loss. Now go back into your hole until next year, homer.

ExCat21
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 1:08:43 PM

Kirby was the best AD when it came to increasing revenue for each school he was at. Thats how he rose so fast to be on the committee today. This will come down to who will bring the most money in regards to the playoff. Washington or a B1G school. I hate they are trying to make this like NCAA Basketball. I miss BCS era. WMU wouldve been in the top 5 3 years ago. Thats how Boise and TCU came up.

OhioCatFan
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 1:38:13 PM

Excellent letter, Alan. I made all of these points in discussions I've had with family members after Penn State's win over Wisconsin.

I'd go easy on bcat2. He's a very valuable counterweight to our complainer-in-chief.

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Monroe Slavin
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 1:52:41 PM

Alan Swank wrote:

Bcat2 wrote:

Monroe Slavin wrote:

What's the weight of recency, of most recent wins/losses vs. those earlier in the year?

Not sure of where you are going with this. You require the Ohio team to carry baggage going back four years. Remember, "No Excuses."

Thanks, Alan. Some people refuse to see.

I'd think that recency would be a somewhat significant factor--else why play the rest of the sched if a team has an early loss or two?

Bcat2
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 2:05:14 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Alan Swank wrote:

Bcat2 wrote:

Monroe Slavin wrote:

What's the weight of recency, of most recent wins/losses vs. those earlier in the year?

Not sure of where you are going with this. You require the Ohio team to carry baggage going back four years. Remember, "No Excuses."

Thanks, Alan. Some people refuse to see.

I'd think that recency would be a somewhat significant factor--else why play the rest of the sched if a team has an early loss or two?

I do agree. No problem with this at all, just seem a revelation on Monroe's part given his thousands of posts hanging losses going back years around the Ohio coaches necks.

"Do not pray for easy lives. Pray to be stronger men." JFK

BillyTheCat
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 4:44:01 PM

ExCat21 wrote:

In the BCS era, OSU still goes, and the BCS accepted non-conference champions on a few occasions. OSU was #1 in S.O.S. No one beat more top 10 teams than OSU, and they are easily in the top 4 teams on body of work. Yeah, so PSU beat OSU on a blocked FG. Michigan killed PSU, what does that give you?

ts1227
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 5:26:29 PM

OhioStunter wrote:

I agree about the computer polls. The human factor can have just as many flaws in deciding. Ultimately, if the rankings stand as-is, all P5 teams with 1 loss or fewer will get in.

They need to use a BCS-style ranking system, that includes some computers (or at least something that is beyond of room of people charged with populating games to make the most money). I have no problem with the playoff or NY6 idea, but change how the teams are picked.

Last Edited: 12/4/2016 5:26:44 PM by ts1227

Alan Swank
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 5:54:59 PM

BillyTheCat wrote:

ExCat21 wrote:

Going to have to take you on Billy. As a former coach, you know that no game is won on a single play. Most fans think that but the body of work up until that play sets the stage for things to happen. As for losing by a bunch to Penn State, that was 9 games ago. You've coached, teams improve and get on a roll which Penn State clearly is. When you sat down with your players at the beginning of the year you set goals. League championship was first. Then sectional, district, etc. Penn State won the league championship and toss did not and along the way, Penn State beat tosu. If the guys and girls in that room who picked the final four were that good and determining who was best, they'd be living in Vegas making billions not in tax payer funded jobs in colleges and universities. Game on!

BillyTheCat
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 6:14:46 PM

Alan Swank wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

ExCat21 wrote:

Only goal was what we could control. Firm believer in the KISS method. Goal never went farther than the next game.

OhioCatFan
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 6:19:12 PM

I'm rooting for you Alan in this face off. If PSU is not picked for the playoff, it will effectively say that conference championships mean nothing. It will implode the whole system. Head to head competition has got to mean something. It's interesting for the G5 NY6 bowl being a conference champion is the single most important criteria. Why the double standard?

Edit: I want the system to implode so maybe this would be a good thing. It'll expose the dirty underbelly of the whole rotten mess.

Last Edited: 12/4/2016 6:21:13 PM by OhioCatFan

BillyTheCat
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 6:22:03 PM

OhioCatFan wrote:

It does mean something, and so does having the most wins against the top 10 and the toughest schedule in the country. Don't loose to an unbranded Pitt and PSU is in the Playoffs.

Victory
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/4/2016 7:30:57 PM

Alan Swank wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

ExCat21 wrote:

The guys that do make the big bucks to say who is better say that OSU is better along with Michigan. But who we think would win a prospective game is a pretty small criteria.

Last Edited: 12/4/2016 7:32:39 PM by Victory

Andrew Ruck
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RE: Football playoffs

Posted: 12/5/2016 8:51:06 AM

It's all just so stupid. It turns football into figure skating & gymnastics, with the fate of teams being decided by rankings and committees. I just get so tired of it and don't understand why it can't just be a tournament of conference champions so we can burn the rankings to the ground and every team control their own destiny and know exactly what they need to do.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

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