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Topic: OPPA+- Predictions for the MAC Championship Game

Topic: OPPA+- Predictions for the MAC Championship Game

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The Situation
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Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
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OPPA+- Predictions for the MAC Championship Game

Posted: 11/23/2016 4:46:03 PM

I've left the OPPA+- rankings off the site this season since they genuinely seem to bother some folks on this message board. But with the MAC Championship game two weekends away and the popular betting lines at least a few days away, here's the early OPPA spread and score prediction.

#: OPPA+- Rank

Assuming #5 WMU beats #25 Toledo by an OPPA+- predicted score of 38 to 30 this weekend:

#57 OHIO will lose 20 to 31 against #5 WMU (only slightly depending on the outcome of the rest of this weekends games)

MAC Rankings
O-RNK: OPPA+- Ranking
(W-L): Regular Season Wins - Regular Season Loss
[#-#]: Average O-RNK Win - Average O-RNK Loss

O-RNK ---- TEAM
5 ---- Western Michigan (11-0) [91; ]
25 ---- Toledo (9-2) [87; 54]
54 ---- Eastern Michigan (7-5) [78; 56]
57 ---- Ohio (8-4) [93; 65]
72 ---- Central Michigan (6-6) [72; 64]
82 ---- Miami (OH) (6-6) [95; 67]
84 ---- Northern Illinois (4-7) [97; 33]
89 ---- Akron (5-7) [104; 52]
101 ---- Bowling Green State (3-8) [99; 53]
107 ---- Ball State (4-8) [122; 61]
108 ---- Kent State (3-8) [99; 49]
122 ---- Massachusetts (2-9) [105; 58]
125 ---- Buffalo (2-9) [90; 81]

Mark Lembright '85
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Member Since: 8/22/2010
Location: Highland Heights, OH
Post Count: 2,460

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RE: OPPA+- Predictions for the MAC Championship Game

Posted: 11/23/2016 4:53:24 PM

Great stuff!

Eastern Michigan has been surprisingly tough this year. They will be a tough opponent for whoever they play in their bowl.

colobobcat66
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Member Since: 9/1/2006
Location: Watching the bobcats run outside my window., CO
Post Count: 4,464

Status: Online

RE: OPPA+- Predictions for the MAC Championship Game

Posted: 11/23/2016 5:11:57 PM

The Situation wrote:

How many years will it take to get UMass out of the MAC?

The Situation
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Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

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RE: OPPA+- Predictions for the MAC Championship Game

Posted: 11/23/2016 5:16:51 PM

Take my opinion for whatever you think it's worth, but if I was being paid by a random person unaffiliated with either program to advise on this MAC Championship game line, here's my advice:

We just don't know enough about Western Michigan at this point. They're unproven on paper. They're (1-0) against teams with winning records and (0-0) against teams with a 0.500 record (OPPA adjusted to remove games against FCS schools across the field of teams).

They have the worst strength of schedule in college football (tied with 8-3 Old Dominion) and their average opponent rank is #91.

I'd avoid this game entirely regardless of what we know about OHIO (1-2 against teams above 0.500, 1-0 against teams at 0.500, SOS 117, average win rank #93).

---

Now personally, emotions involved, I'm taking OHIO to cover the spread, which will likely be at least 3 points higher than the +11.5 OPPA+- has OHIO at right now.

I believe they can win the whole damn thing because after all I'm entitled to my opinion.

Alan Swank
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Location: Athens, OH
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RE: OPPA+- Predictions for the MAC Championship Game

Posted: 11/23/2016 6:19:41 PM

The Situation wrote:

Can you explain in layman's terms how this works/what this means? I'd like to compare it against actual game outcomes. Thanks.

L.C.
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Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
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RE: OPPA+- Predictions for the MAC Championship Game

Posted: 11/23/2016 8:52:03 PM

Alan, he developed this system a couple years ago. It's based on the assumption that you get points for beating teams with a winning record, and no points for beating teams with a losing record. He later modified it in several ways, to give part credit for beating teams that are .500. His system in the end doesn't deviate too far from the other polls.

I do question one of his numbers above. I agree that Ohio is 1-2 against temas with a winning record (Toledo, Tennesee, EMU), but it seems to me that they are 1-1 against teams that are .500 (Miami, CMU).

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

The Situation
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Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

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RE: OPPA+- Predictions for the MAC Championship Game

Posted: 11/23/2016 9:04:30 PM

Alan Swank wrote:

Can you explain in layman's terms how this works/what this means? I'd like to compare it against actual game outcomes. Thanks.

Every team gets a point on their schedule for beating a team with a 0.500 or better record (excluding wins against FCS teams). This is the Objective Points Per Attempt score (OPPA).

An incremental point fraction bonus between 0 and 1 point is awarded for each win. This is a unique bonus relative to the entire field of teams which ranges from 0 for beating the lowest OPPA ranked team to 1 for beating highest OPPA ranked team.

An incremental point fraction penalty between 0 and -1 point is awarded for each loss. This is a unique bonus relative to the entire field of teams which ranges from 0 for losing to the highest OPPA ranked team to -1 for losing to the lowest OPPA ranked team.

FCS wins are worth 0, FCS losses are worth -1.

The scores are calculated in the present moment, not at the past time of the game. The rankings adjust accordingly.

And that's really it.

As for how it compares to real games, the two I listed won't give you the big picture. But over the last three seasons, assuming the spread as the margin of victory, my projected final margin averages 300% closer to the actual margin than Caesar's of Las Vegas posted spread (after week 5).

Unfortunately there's no money to be made in beating Vegas on the margin of victory (outside of the context of a spread).

Fortunately, I have the freedom to focus on subsets in the data which I believe are objectively inefficient markets.

The Situation
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Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

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RE: OPPA+- Predictions for the MAC Championship Game

Posted: 11/23/2016 9:08:23 PM

L.C. wrote:

I do question one of his numbers above. I agree that Ohio is 1-2 against teams with a winning record (Toledo, Tennesee, EMU), but it seems to me that they are 1-1 against teams that are .500 (Miami, CMU).

The records as stated are compared with FCS victories removed from consideration from the field.

Central Michigan is 5-6 against FBS teams.

Oddly enough, Miami is 6-5 against FBS teams, but losses against FCS teams do count, making Miami 6-6.

The Situation
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Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

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RE: OPPA+- Predictions for the MAC Championship Game

Posted: 11/24/2016 8:37:45 AM

Alan Swank wrote:

I'd like to compare it against actual game outcomes. Thanks.

OPPA+- Week 14

#54 Eastern Michigan (30) HOME #72 Central Michigan (28) [2]
#82 Miami (OH) (28) HOME #107 Ball State (24) [4]
#57 Ohio (31) HOME #89 Akron (22) [9.5]
#31 Louisiana State (20) @ #10 Texas A&M (23) [-3.5]
#68 Arizona State (47) @ #115 Arizona (31) [15.5]
#35 Arkansas (38) @ #86 Missouri (24) [14]
#61 Baylor (41) @ #83 Texas Tech (34) [7.5]
#9 Boise State (33) @ #48 Air Force (29) [5]
#125 Buffalo (16) @ #101 Bowling Green State (35) [-19.5]
#103 Cincinnati (20) @ #45 Tulsa (40) [-20]
#29 Houston (40) @ #55 Memphis (29) [11]
#46 Louisiana Tech (44) @ #91 Southern Mississippi (29) [15.5]
#18 Nebraska (24) @ #51 Iowa (20) [4]
#67 North Carolina State (22) @ #32 North Carolina (30) [-7.5]
#84 Northern Illinois (33) @ #108 Kent State (20) [12.5]
#64 Texas Christian (32) @ #66 Texas (30) [2]
#25 Toledo (30) @ #5 Western Michigan (38) [-7.5]
#17 Washington (34) @ #38 Washington State (24) [10]
#36 Appalachian State (41) @ #99 New Mexico State (16) [25]
#58 Arkansas State (31) @ #95 Louisiana-Lafayette (19) [11.5]
#8 Auburn (14) @ #1 Alabama (29) [-15]
#81 Boston College (19) @ #69 Wake Forest (22) [-2.5]
#71 Central Florida (25) @ #22 South Florida (40) [-15]
#100 Charlotte (28) @ #85 Texas-San Antonio (35) [-7]
#56 Colorado State (30) @ #43 San Diego State (36) [-6.5]
#75 Duke (19) @ #37 Miami (FL) (32) [-12.5]
#113 East Carolina (17) @ #41 Temple (38) [-21]
#15 Florida (31) @ #6 Florida State (28) [3]
#124 Florida Atlantic (23) @ #62 Middle Tennessee State (38) [-14.5]
#105 Florida International (22) @ #53 Old Dominion (41) [-19]
#40 Georgia Tech (24) @ #28 Georgia (26) [-2]
#110 Illinois (21) @ #63 Northwestern (37) [-16]
#119 Kansas (17) @ #44 Kansas State (46) [-29.5]
#52 Kentucky (20) @ #19 Louisville (39) [-18.5]
#122 Massachusetts (23) @ #96 Hawaii (31) [-8]
#4 Michigan (24) @ #3 Ohio State (26) [-3]
#106 Michigan State (14) @ #11 Penn State (38) [-24]
#39 Minnesota (16) @ #12 Wisconsin (21) [-5]
#80 Mississippi State (27) @ #47 Mississippi (34) [-7]
#23 Navy (37) @ #76 Southern Methodist (25) [12]
#121 Nevada (26) @ #98 Nevada-Las Vegas (30) [-4.5]
#88 North Texas (40) @ #126 Texas-El Paso (23) [16.5]
#70 Notre Dame (22) @ #27 Southern California (33) [-10.5]
#79 Oregon (39) @ #94 Oregon State (34) [5]
#117 Purdue (22) @ #73 Indiana (35) [-13]
#123 Rice (11) @ #33 Stanford (46) [-34.5]
#114 Rutgers (13) @ #77 Maryland (38) [-25]
#111 San Jose State (23) @ #128 Fresno State (21) [2]
#92 South Alabama (24) @ #60 Idaho (30) [-5]
#59 South Carolina (13) @ #2 Clemson (30) [-17.5]
#87 Syracuse (24) @ #24 Pittsburgh (43) [-19.5]
#7 Tennessee (29) @ #49 Vanderbilt (22) [7.5]
#26 Troy (46) @ #127 Texas State (17) [29.5]
#112 Tulane (26) @ #116 Connecticut (20) [6]
#78 UCLA (37) @ #74 California (35) [1.5]
#42 Utah (25) @ #16 Colorado (30) [-5.5]
#104 Utah State (17) @ #50 Brigham Young (30) [-13.5]
#109 Virginia (19) @ #21 Virginia Tech (39) [-20]
#20 West Virginia (40) @ #102 Iowa State (17) [23]
#34 Western Kentucky (48) @ #120 Marshall (19) [29]
#30 Wyoming (42) @ #65 New Mexico (33) [9]

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