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Topic: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Topic: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

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The Situation
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Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
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A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/19/2015 10:53:19 PM

Step outside of yourself for a moment. Step into a hypothetical world where you've been given the opportunity to impart the tangible change of your choosing to the Ohio Bobcat football program.

In your spare time you've drawn a defined circle around a specific grouping of teams over a number of seasons. And you've chosen to exclude 73% of the games outside of that circle. These are Ohio football games played during the 2012, 2013, and 2014 seasons.

The lightbulb goes off, you can't believe your luck. This is the idea that's really going to be worth something. And you start to flesh out a plan of action.

Pretend I'm in charge of the Ohio Bobcats football program and I've heard rumblings of your plan. Pretend I've hired the firm you represent as a consultant. And I'm not paying a consultant to "just point things out", I'm paying a consultant to stand behind a recommendation for tangible change in my program. Though my purpose for hiring your firm is exploratory in nature, as part of the program leadership enrichment budget, I'm ready to get swept off my feet.

Pretend I'm open minded. And I have a longstanding respect for the collective intellectual capital that your firm has acquired.

Take a deep breath.

You've just handed me the final report, a report that weighs in a measure of your firm's time. I can feel it. I'm anxious. With a quick glance the executive summary appears to elegantly summarize some dense analysis.

I'm about to ask for your firm's recommendation...

But first I riffle through the pages, and something just leaps off the pages. I cut you off mid-sentence, and politely request the justification for excluding 73% of the data over that three season period (2012-2014).

I'm not an absent-minded client. In the data you've excluded I know that Ohio beat an 8-win Big 10 team on the road. I know that Ohio beat a 9-win and a 10-win team that won bowl games in the seasons that Ohio beat them. I know that Ohio won its second ever bowl game against an 8-win team with a win over Arkansas, a 3-point OT loss to Auburn, and a 5-point loss to an 8-win Baylor team that won their bowl game.

A switch just flipped. I'm not so open minded anymore.

Suddenly you're fumbling over your words. Somehow you're able to loosely convey that the firm is in agreement on this exclusion of data.

"But why? What is your justification for excluding 73% of the data?" I ask as the tension sets in.

"The MAC Championship!" you exclaim. "The teams.. the data! The data in this report identify the teams Ohio MUST beat in order to win the MAC Championship!"

The brick settles in my stomach. Was I too quick to dismiss you? Was I too quick to dismiss the firm?

"Show me," I speak softly.

You look over both shoulders. But you know full well that your boss hasn't reviewed this.

With a lump in your throat, "well um if you see here, Ohio has lost to these MAC opponents over the past three (3) seasons."

With an open ended "okay"... "So why does Ohio HAVE to beat these specific teams?"

"Ohio lost by alot to these teams. Well you see, um, these teams are the best teams, and if you want to win the MAC championship, you MUST to beat the best MAC teams in the regular season. By the multiple possession point margins of these games we can see that Ohio is unable to beat these teams and therefore unable to win the MAC Championship."

I pause. Something doesn't add up.

In 2010, I remember OHIO beat, not lost to, but beat the MAC Champion in the regular season. In 2008, the only game MAC Champion Buffalo won against a team with a winning record was against then undefeated Ball State in the MAC Championship game. Clearly Buffalo didn't beat any of the top teams in the regular season. But perhaps they did play the top teams close.

"Even if I was to entertain this line of reasoning, your justification hinges on the margin of victory. Buffalo beat a top MAC team just once in 2008 and won it all. Where can I see more detailed analysis on this in your report?"

Confidently you exclaim, "Well yes sir the margin of victory says it all! MAC Champions don't get blown out!"

At once I begin collecting the report now strewn across my desk. I ask you to leave in the sort of manner that implies you're leaving this office for the last time.

I quietly state that BG lost to a 5-win Indiana team 42-10 in 2013, a year they won the MAC Championship. And 2014 MAC Champion NIU lost to a 7-win Arkansas team 52-14 the year they claimed the trophy.

As the door's closing you frantically blurt out "but sir! Ohio got blown out more than once in a season!"

With the door shut I look over to my colleague who has been sitting silently throughout the entire pitch. With a sigh I affirm, "They never answered my question. They had no quantifiable justification in their report for excluding 73% of the data."

My colleague throws the next report on my desk. The executive summary states that Ohio is 6-1 over the last four seasons against teams with a shade of green as their primary color.

"This guy might actually have a better idea than the last pitch."

OhioCatFan
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Athens, OH
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/19/2015 11:12:25 PM

TS: You make your point brilliantly. There are some here, however, who will not understand it. It will simply go over their heads. They will continue to repeat their mantra. They will say that you and I and our ilk are complacent and that we are satisfied to not have a MACC since hector was a pup. That, of course, is not true, but objective truth is not a realm in which they reside on a regular basis.

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

oldkatz
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/20/2015 8:56:26 AM

OhioCatFan wrote:

Hector the pup was an apologist!!!

"All my inside sources tell me I have no inside sources." Salvatore "money bucks" Mafiosiano.

Mark Lembright '85
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/20/2015 9:42:10 AM

That is an outstanding post, Situation!

Unfortunately, as Ohio's only in the G5 and without some obscene infusion of $ will stay in the G5, it's goal and only goal (outside of running a clean and honorable program of course) is a MACC. Ohio will never win a national championship nor will it ever be in the running for a national championship. So what's the next best thing? A MACC. Granted, and I think everyone agrees, Ohio was extremely close to winning the MAC in 2010.

I think what has most of the posters disturbed, and its the source of another thread, is the recent 3 plus year trend of imploding against the MAC's elite. And most of the losses weren't nailbiters. Can Ohio turn it around? Sure it can and I know we all hope that it can. But I think the more important question is, was Saturday's loss against WMU a precursor of what's to come against Bowling Green, against Northern Illinois? That we will just have to wait and see.

Pete Chouteau
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/20/2015 4:58:18 PM

You left out BIGMANZ.

Unacceptable.

Paul Graham
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/20/2015 5:23:50 PM

This story is really funny. Thanks for the LOLz!

L.C.
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Location: United States
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/20/2015 11:10:14 PM

I have a different solution to the open-ended problem. How about we all set aside our differences for awhile. How about we all stop having the exact same debate every week, since it doesn't accomplish anything anyway, and we all know where we stand.

This team has played very well for 5.5 halves this year, and not well for one half. How many more good halves do they have left this year, and how many bad ones? I have no idea, but I do know this: They still can have a very good season. How about we get behind them for awhile, and hope for the best? Then, at the end of the season, we can pick this debate back up.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

OhioCatFan
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/20/2015 11:26:08 PM

L.C. wrote:

. . . . How about we get behind them for awhile, and hope for the best? Then, at the end of the season, we can pick this debate back up.

MonroeClassmate
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/20/2015 11:31:48 PM

The Situation wrote:

In 2010, I remember OHIO beat, not lost to, but beat the MAC Champion in the regular season.

This is just too funny! You use this as evidence to support your point? It is the exact opposite. OHIO lays a Thanksgiving egg at Kent to enable the losers in Miami to take what may have been OHIO's. IMO the Kent game that year was Solich's biggest defeat as coach of OHIO to date. To have a team totally flat and soundly beaten by a team who had nothing to play for other than a fired coach when OHIO should have mopped the floor with them and headed off to the Motor City on cloud nine.

The Situation
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/21/2015 1:14:04 AM

MonroeClassmate wrote:

The Situation wrote:

In 2010, I remember OHIO beat, not lost to, but beat the MAC Champion in the regular season.

Kent State (5-7 in 2010) did in fact foil Ohio�s MAC Championship appearance on the last regular season game of the year. Most would consider Kent a non �top MAC team� that year.

In fact, this is game is exactly the type of game that would be grouped into the 73% of excluded data described in my original post above.

As you clearly point out, these types of excluded games against non �top MAC teams� are important because they can cost Ohio a MAC Championship. Actually games like that Kent game are arguably AS important as say games against the 2010 Miami team that finished 10-4 (7-1 in the MAC). The road to the MAC Championship goes through all MAC teams, not just �top MAC teams�.

The Situation wrote:

"But why? What is your justification for excluding 73% of the data?" I ask as the tension sets in.

�

With the door shut I look over to my colleague who has been sitting silently throughout the entire pitch. With a sigh I affirm, "They never answered my question. They had no quantifiable justification in their report for excluding 73% of the data."

Laugh if you want, but you just soundly supported my argument. And know I'm laughing because I don't know if you're too dumb to realize what just happened.

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." -- Albert Einstein

P.S.

Thank you for the kind words OCF and Mark. I appreciate them.

P.S.S.

(points at Paul Graham on the bench after burning his teammate in the game)

(Monroe Slavin still in locker room looking for his missing chin strap)

Last Edited: 10/21/2015 2:20:29 AM by The Situation

TWT
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/21/2015 1:21:50 AM

Mark Lembright '85 wrote:

The staff is 0-3 in MACCs, 2-4 in bowl games and continues on a 5 year decline in number of wins; 2011 (10), 2012 (8), 2013 (7), 2014 (6), 2015 (5). If it takes a coaching making $500,000 a year more than Solich to have a winning record in the MACCs, bowl games and 8 in a row over BG/Kents I'd pay the money.

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

Recovering Journalist
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/21/2015 7:56:50 AM

Uncle Wes wrote:

Would it come from the same pool of fantasy cash that is building a new Peden? We already have some of the highest paid coaches in the MAC. I fully agree that there's a clear problem over the last several years, but throwing money at it is hardly a viable option when the department's already heavily subsidized by students. No group of five school can win an arms race anyway.

I don't advocate firing a staff that's brought so much success, but anyone who doesn't realize there's a long-running problem with respect to results is being willfully ignorant of what's happening on the field. The numbers above speak loudly. I don't know the solution but admitting there's a problem is a good start, and it doesn't seem like the staff or many fans have reached that point, which is frustrating.

OU_Country
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/21/2015 9:23:30 AM

Recovering Journalist wrote:

Uncle Wes wrote:

I don't pretend to know anything about the longevity of specific staffers. I also don't pretend to know how good/bad OUr approach is relative to either other schools in the MAC, or if it has evolved at all over the course of the last 4-5 seasons.

There are two things that I do know:

1) Football is evolving into a game that is decided based on how good your QB is, and other than TT, I question how good any Ohio QB has really been before and during Frank's tenure. The elite MAC teams referred to in this thread, more often than not, have excellent QBs. I'm of the opinion that we don't.

2) Sometimes it may take a new, or fresh approach to move a program forward. Examples I can cite include:
*When Frank & Co, after losing to Troy, switched approaches to the spread, making what I think was a big difference in how well Ohio played offensively over a number of seasons.
*When the Bengals brought back Hue Jackson, it elevated their offensive unit's effectiveness, and brought a different attitude to the team. Only injuries derailed them last year.

I'm not a "football guy" enough to understand the X's and O's, and I don't follow recruiting enough to know why we don't seem to get the talent at QB, that say BGSU gets, but those are my simple observations.

Casper71
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/21/2015 9:35:59 AM

Mark has it right. I thought WMU was the biggest game of the year but now I really believe the Buffs are. We come out flat again and get drilled and, as they say, history does repeat itself. We lose, we will be lucky to be 7-5. We win and a flicker of hope continues to burn for another week!

ou79
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/21/2015 10:02:20 AM

I believe WMU is paying Fleck about $850K per year. If so, that is about $300-350K more than us.

The Situation
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/21/2015 12:13:42 PM

The story was written to intentionally exclude the recommendation of the firm. That recommendation is left to the reader's imagination. As the reader sees fit, the tangible change may come in the form of a higher paid coach, new play calling, more BiGMaNZzzZz, a bigger stadium, a new conference, the possibilities are endless. Perhaps even a few readers could imagine the firm recommends no tangible action.

What I want readers to take away from this story is that using 27% of the data as the basis for any recommendation (without quantifiable justification) is a critically flawed approach.

Most will agree there is a "problem". Few, if any, can agree on the full scope of the "problem". As is the very nature of open-ended problems, the possibilities for actions and reactions are endless.

L.C.
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/21/2015 12:24:08 PM

ou79 wrote:

I believe WMU is paying Fleck about $850K per year. If so, that is about $300-350K more than us.

Do you believe that Fleck will stay there at that salary if he gets a good offer?

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

ou79
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/21/2015 1:52:39 PM

No LC, I believe that if someone came and offered $2MM and the right situation he, like most people, would be gone on the next bus out of town. However, the opposite could also be asked, and I believe I already know your answer. That is, you are not suggesting paying $50K for our next head coach just to save money under the theory that hey, if that coach has any success they too will be gone in a heartbeat. Perhaps I am wrong, but I think the argument cuts both ways.

L.C.
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/21/2015 3:26:09 PM

The fact of life in the MAC is that MAC teams pay what they can afford, which is usually $4-500,000, and they get what they can afford. If the coach turns out badly, they replace him. If the coach turns out well, they also need to replace him. Either way it's rare to see a coach in the MAC for more than 4-5 years. I don't see any particular reason to think that paying an extra $350-500k will accomplish much because if the coach does well, you still lose him. I don't think paying less accomplishes anything, either. If your offer is below the market price, you aren't apt to get much.

Last Edited: 10/21/2015 3:27:51 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Monroe Slavin
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/21/2015 9:04:43 PM

L.C. wrote:

It's a really good point--a really good point--that most of us would object to paying an average MAC salary, and having the coach pulled away because he did so well that there was that kind of desire for him.

It's a really good point that the results are the same (gotta replace coach) no matter what happens.

Thank you for supporting and allowing mediocrity.

Thread correctly titled: Approach is flawed--disregards 1) reasonable expectations of meeting top goal within 10 years and 2) most recent years' results including many stunningly bad performances. Try doing fine work for 7-10 years ago and then do 3 years of quite mediocre and see how your review goes, see how defense of 'but before that I was good'plays.

Manny, I'm glad your a fan but I cringe at your analysis here. Hello, the situation.

Last Edited: 10/22/2015 3:35:49 AM by Monroe Slavin

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L.C.
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem (NT)

Posted: 10/21/2015 10:20:51 PM

Last Edited: 10/22/2015 7:28:44 AM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

The Situation
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/22/2015 7:31:00 AM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Manny, I'm glad your a fan but I cringe at your analysis here. Hello, the situation.

What have I written in this thread makes you cringe? Where specifically is the disagreement?

Just in case you don't respond to my questions directly (the most likely scenario):

As much as you California leftists like to think you're listening and reacting to the real world around you, the "I just disagree because I do" attitude demonstrates you're more set in your homegrown ways ways than the concrete in the LA river.

Monroe Slavin
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/22/2015 10:20:17 AM

You don't specifically state what the 73% that such as me exclude. I'm presuming that it's the games in Solich's first 10 years.

Your analysis seems to fail on two key points.

First, as I have stated above, one is judged on recent accomplishment. If a CEO does well in his first 7 years but has a lot of poor performances in the next three, well, he doesn't get thru that next three. No one cares about the first seven given recent stin. Look at corporate CEO's and football coaches at any company or program with high aspirations. After no more than 1.5 years--and probably much closer to .75 of one year--they are fired.

Second, it's performance in key moments that matters. Penn State was great. So was the first bowl victory. But no one cares that we beat Miami or AKron or Idaho. Quite the contrary--losing to those types is/would be horrible, unacceptable. The goal is a MACC (else why are we playing?). That goal is represented best by games against the top level of teams in the conference. How have we fared against the top level of teams in MAC over the last three plus years?

I have nothing against Solich. He's a good man.

My evaluation is based solely on: Any reason to believe that he can he coach us to a MACC?

Monroe Slavin
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/22/2015 10:21:57 AM

Why do you who don't share my opinion keep stating that I don't state specifics?

That couldn't be further from the truth.

Not liking where I live or my alleged politics is okay. But mis-stating what I post is not.

.
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RE: A Critically Flawed Approach to an Open-Ended Problem

Posted: 10/22/2015 12:56:13 PM

"Step into a hypothetical world where you've been given the opportunity to impart the tangible change..."

OH GOD I HOPE MY CHILDREN NEVER GO TO BUSINESS SCHOOL.

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