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Topic: Week 11 & 12 OPPA+- CFB Score & Spread Projections

Topic: Week 11 & 12 OPPA+- CFB Score & Spread Projections

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The Situation
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Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
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Week 11 & 12 OPPA+- CFB Score & Spread Projections

Posted: 11/12/2015 9:03:01 AM

This quote inspired me:

BillyTheCat wrote:

There is a reason you do not work in Vegas setting odds!

Some here are aware I've developed my own ranking system I refer to as OPPA+- (Objective Points Per Attempt +-). This ranking system pulls in raw win, loss, and score data from a server and through a consistent methodology ranks each FBS team by the same criteria. I perform no manual manipulation of the data. There is no "eye test" override a team's ranking. And up until this week I've merely ranked teams and made no foray into projecting the final score.

But, I am not one to back away from a challenge! My score projections for Week 11 are listed below (based on data Weeks 1-10). To clarify, as with the OPPA rankings, these score projections are not manually manipulated. The projections below are the output from applying the same consistent methodology to each FBS team.

Now since this week's Vegas spreads have already been published some could speculate I'm merely piggy backing off Vegas' numbers and not creating my own projections. To demonstrate this is my projection system I will post Week 12's score projections in the following post (based on data Weeks 1-10).

#: Team's OPPA+- Ranking
( ): Projected Points Scored
[ ]: Projected OPPA Point Spread

WEEK 11

#103 Kent State (15) AT #72 Ohio (28) [-13.5]
#25 Toledo (27) AT #56 Central Michigan (18) [8.5]
#33 Bowling Green State (38) AT #53 Western Michigan (31) [7]
#64 Northern Illinois (30) AT #73 Buffalo (24) [6]
#93 Louisiana-Lafayette (32) AT #85 South Alabama (30) [1.5]
#80 Virginia Tech (27) AT #78 Georgia Tech (31) [-4]
#23 Southern California (45) AT #94 Colorado (16) [28.5]
#86 Akron (31) AT #119 Miami (OH) (15) [16]
#2 Alabama (27) AT #18 Mississippi State (19) [7.5]
#45 Appalachian State (47) AT #110 Idaho (19) [28]
#36 Arkansas (24) AT #7 Louisiana State (34) [-10.5]
#41 Arkansas State (50) AT #127 Louisiana-Monroe (21) [30]
#14 Brigham Young (27) AT #69 Missouri (17) [10.5]
#1 Clemson (40) AT #91 Syracuse (19) [21]
#4 Florida (35) AT #83 South Carolina (16) [19]
#97 Florida International (22) AT #47 Marshall (32) [-10]
#116 Fresno State (26) AT #117 Hawaii (30) [-4.5]
#42 Georgia (24) AT #35 Auburn (26) [-2.5]
#57 Georgia Southern (38) AT #106 Troy (24) [14.5]
#113 Georgia State (28) AT #111 Texas State (28) [0]
#124 Kansas (18) AT #12 Texas Christian (59) [-40.5]
#77 Kansas State (28) AT #63 Texas Tech (35) [-7]
#62 Kentucky (23) AT #81 Vanderbilt (19) [3.5]
#95 Maryland (20) AT #10 Michigan State (36) [-16]
#112 Massachusetts (24) AT #126 Eastern Michigan (20) [3.5]
#19 Memphis (33) AT #22 Houston (30) [3]
#40 Miami (FL) (19) AT #21 North Carolina (41) [-22.5]
#20 Michigan (35) AT #61 Indiana (19) [15.5]
#74 Middle Tennessee State (40) AT #109 Florida Atlantic (22) [18.5]
#60 Minnesota (16) AT #8 Iowa (32) [-16]
#49 Nebraska (39) AT #88 Rutgers (26) [13]
#101 Nevada-Las Vegas (27) AT #98 Colorado State (28) [-1]
#92 New Mexico (10) AT #44 Boise State (36) [-26.5]
#46 North Carolina State (26) AT #30 Florida State (33) [-7]
#123 North Texas (21) AT #31 Tennessee (52) [-31.5]
#6 Ohio State (37) AT #59 Illinois (10) [27.5]
#17 Oklahoma (39) AT #13 Baylor (41) [-2]
#5 Oklahoma State (47) AT #89 Iowa State (21) [26]
#27 Oregon (27) AT #16 Stanford (39) [-12]
#108 Oregon State (18) AT #37 California (46) [-27.5]
#32 Pittsburgh (31) AT #52 Duke (24) [7]
#102 Purdue (17) AT #15 Northwestern (27) [-10]
#90 San Jose State (27) AT #84 Nevada (27) [-0.5]
#120 Southern Methodist (20) AT #9 Navy (46) [-27]
#68 Southern Mississippi (39) AT #96 Rice (23) [16]
#29 Temple (29) AT #65 South Florida (18) [11]
#66 Texas (21) AT #58 West Virginia (33) [-11.5]
#100 Texas-El Paso (30) AT #104 Old Dominion (31) [-1]
#118 Texas-San Antonio (29) AT #121 Charlotte (23) [6]
#115 Tulane (28) AT #122 Army (34) [-6]
#79 Tulsa (30) AT #54 Cincinnati (41) [-11]
#11 Utah (44) AT #70 Arizona (21) [23.5]
#75 Utah State (27) AT #71 Air Force (27) [0]
#82 Virginia (22) AT #50 Louisville (29) [-7]
#99 Wake Forest (20) AT #3 Notre Dame (45) [-24.5]
#51 Washington (33) AT #67 Arizona State (22) [10.5]
#48 Washington State (33) AT #28 UCLA (35) [-2.5]
#125 Wyoming (12) AT #55 San Diego State (34) [-22.5]

The Situation
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Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

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RE: Week 11 & 12 OPPA+- CFB Score & Spread Projections

Posted: 11/12/2015 9:03:36 AM

WEEK 12 (based on Week 1-10 data)

#107 Ball State (18) AT #72 Ohio (32) [-13.5]
#25 Toledo (33) AT #33 Bowling Green State (25) [7.5]
#56 Central Michigan (32) AT #103 Kent State (15) [17]
#53 Western Michigan (30) AT #64 Northern Illinois (28) [2]
#76 East Carolina (36) AT #128 Central Florida (18) [18.5]
#127 Louisiana-Monroe (24) AT #111 Texas State (36) [-13]
#54 Cincinnati (31) AT #65 South Florida (25) [6]
#71 Air Force (23) AT #44 Boise State (32) [-9]
#70 Arizona (29) AT #67 Arizona State (36) [-7]
#13 Baylor (42) AT #5 Oklahoma State (44) [-2.5]
#73 Buffalo (24) AT #86 Akron (21) [3]
#37 California (23) AT #16 Stanford (34) [-11.5]
#94 Colorado (26) AT #48 Washington State (38) [-12.5]
#98 Colorado State (27) AT #92 New Mexico (25) [2]
#52 Duke (32) AT #82 Virginia (23) [9]
#109 Florida Atlantic (13) AT #4 Florida (43) [-30]
#116 Fresno State (17) AT #14 Brigham Young (47) [-30]
#57 Georgia Southern (17) AT #42 Georgia (28) [-11]
#78 Georgia Tech (26) AT #40 Miami (FL) (31) [-5]
#22 Houston (35) AT #87 Connecticut (17) [18.5]
#110 Idaho (21) AT #35 Auburn (49) [-27.5]
#59 Illinois (25) AT #60 Minnesota (22) [3]
#61 Indiana (34) AT #95 Maryland (28) [6]
#89 Iowa State (23) AT #77 Kansas State (26) [-3]
#7 Louisiana State (33) AT #26 Mississippi (24) [9]
#43 Louisiana Tech (47) AT #100 Texas-El Paso (17) [29.5]
#50 Louisville (24) AT #32 Pittsburgh (26) [-2]
#19 Memphis (28) AT #29 Temple (30) [-2.5]
#119 Miami (OH) (18) AT #112 Massachusetts (13) [5]
#20 Michigan (27) AT #38 Penn State (17) [10]
#10 Michigan State (27) AT #6 Ohio State (27) [0]
#18 Mississippi State (30) AT #36 Arkansas (23) [7]
#9 Navy (43) AT #79 Tulsa (25) [18.5]
#84 Nevada (25) AT #75 Utah State (33) [-8]
#114 New Mexico State (28) AT #93 Louisiana-Lafayette (37) [-9]
#21 North Carolina (35) AT #80 Virginia Tech (21) [14.5]
#123 North Texas (18) AT #74 Middle Tennessee State (48) [-30]
#15 Northwestern (20) AT #39 Wisconsin (18) [2.5]
#3 Notre Dame (37) AT #105 Boston College (17) [20]
#104 Old Dominion (20) AT #68 Southern Mississippi (40) [-19.5]
#102 Purdue (21) AT #8 Iowa (32) [-11]
#96 Rice (31) AT #118 Texas-San Antonio (24) [6.5]
#88 Rutgers (32) AT #122 Army (23) [10]
#55 San Diego State (33) AT #101 Nevada-Las Vegas (17) [16]
#90 San Jose State (34) AT #117 Hawaii (25) [9]
#85 South Alabama (32) AT #113 Georgia State (28) [4]
#23 Southern California (38) AT #27 Oregon (29) [9.5]
#91 Syracuse (21) AT #46 North Carolina State (35) [-14]
#31 Tennessee (30) AT #69 Missouri (18) [12]
#24 Texas A&M (31) AT #81 Vanderbilt (16) [14.5]
#12 Texas Christian (32) AT #17 Oklahoma (31) [1.5]
#115 Tulane (25) AT #120 Southern Methodist (29) [-4]
#28 UCLA (28) AT #11 Utah (38) [-9.5]
#121 Charlotte (18) AT #62 Kentucky (40) [-22.5]
#99 Wake Forest (19) AT #1 Clemson (43) [-24]
#51 Washington (41) AT #108 Oregon State (8) [33.5]
#58 West Virginia (49) AT #124 Kansas (1) [47.5]
#34 Western Kentucky (41) AT #97 Florida International (23) [17.5]

Last Edited: 11/12/2015 9:07:17 AM by The Situation

Cats-22
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Member Since: 9/30/2006
Post Count: 370

Status: Offline

RE: Week 11 & 12 OPPA+- CFB Score & Spread Projections

Posted: 11/12/2015 9:19:46 AM

Looks pretty good! Here's one that I didn't understand:
#59 Illinois (25) AT #60 Minnesota (22) [3]

I'm not saying it's a bad prediction (Minn+3 seems about right) but the spread doesn't seem to jive with the rankings. I would expect the #60 team playing at home to be favored over the #59 team...

The Situation
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Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

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RE: Week 11 & 12 OPPA+- CFB Score & Spread Projections

Posted: 11/12/2015 9:25:21 AM

Cats-22 wrote:

I can explain:

My score projections match up a team's average offense to their opponent's average defense and vice versa. Therefore the lower ranked team isn't necessarily the favorite. And that also means a difference in any two teams rankings does not necessarily indicate a typical spread for that difference.

For example consider,

#93 Louisiana-Lafayette (32) AT #85 South Alabama (30) [1.5]

But to your point, my methodology makes no distinction between playing home and away. And that may or may not be a good thing. Time will tell. A well known ranking guy like Sagarin gives the home team something like 3 points. I just haven't been in the points projection business long enough to make my own determination.

Last Edited: 11/12/2015 9:40:40 AM by The Situation

cc-cat
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Post Count: 3,912

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RE: Week 11 & 12 OPPA+- CFB Score & Spread Projections

Posted: 11/12/2015 9:47:53 AM

I bet 4 game parley each week. Quick look (so far - not done comparing) at your odds vs Vegas shows (so far) 5 games with decent difference (7+)
VA/Louisville - Vegas 14 - you 7 (though Louisville at home)
Wash/AZ - Vegas 3 - you 10 (without home field bump for AZ)
Miami/NC ST - Vegas 12.5 - you 22.5 (without home field bump for NC)
OK St/Iowa St - Vegas 14 - you 26
Utah/AZ - Vegas 6 - You 23.5

I'll see if they are on the sheet. See what happens.

Last Edited: 11/12/2015 9:52:13 AM by cc-cat

Monroe Slavin
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RE: Week 11 & 12 OPPA+- CFB Score & Spread Projections

Posted: 11/12/2015 10:21:43 AM

you should definitely start a casino or find a good hobby or charity that needs a large time contribution

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The Situation
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Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

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RE: Week 11 & 12 OPPA+- CFB Score & Spread Projections

Posted: 11/12/2015 10:22:48 AM

cc-cat wrote:

I bet 4 game parley each week. Quick look (so far - not done comparing) at your odds vs Vegas shows (so far) 5 games with decent difference (7+)

I'll post the differences between Vegas and the OPPA spread on my lunch break. I believe there are 20 games where I'm 7 or more points different than Vegas this week. And that's exactly where I start to look for spread mismatches.

The Situation
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Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

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RE: Week 11 & 12 OPPA+- CFB Score & Spread Projections

Posted: 11/12/2015 12:24:54 PM

[ ]: OPPA projected spread
{ }: Approximate Vegas spread
| |: Absolute difference between OPPA and Vegas

WEEK 11

Utah AT Arizona [23.5] {6} |17.5|
Arkansas State AT Louisiana-Monroe [30] {14.5} |15.5|
Washington AT Arizona State [10.5] {-3} |13.5|
Middle Tennessee State AT Florida Atlantic [18.5] {5.5} |13|
Southern California AT Colorado [28.5] {16} |12.5|
Oklahoma State AT Iowa State [26] {14} |12|
Florida AT South Carolina [19] {8} |11|
Ohio State AT Illinois [27.5] {16.5} |11|
Pittsburgh AT Duke [7] {-3.5} |10.5|
Appalachian State AT Idaho [28] {18} |10|
Miami (FL) AT North Carolina [-22.5] {-12.5} |10|
North Texas AT Tennessee [-31.5] {-41} |9.5|
Akron AT Miami (OH) [16] {7} |9|
Memphis AT Houston [3] {-6} |9|
Georgia Southern AT Troy [14.5] {6} |8.5|
Southern Mississippi AT Rice [16] {7.5} |8.5|
Temple AT South Florida [11] {3} |8|
Oregon State AT California [-27.5] {-20} |7.5|
Kent State AT Ohio [-13.5] {-6.5} |7|
Washington State AT UCLA [-2.5] {-9.5} |7|
Clemson AT Syracuse [21] {27.5} |6.5|
Nevada-Las Vegas AT Colorado State [-1] {-7.5} |6.5|
Tulsa AT Cincinnati [-11] {-17.5} |6.5|
Virginia AT Louisville [-7] {-13.5} |6.5|
Brigham Young AT Missouri [10.5] {5} |5.5|
Southern Methodist AT Navy [-27] {-21.5} |5.5|
Toledo AT Central Michigan [8.5] {4} |4.5|
Kansas AT Texas Christian [-40.5] {-45} |4.5|
Minnesota AT Iowa [-16] {-11.5} |4.5|
Purdue AT Northwestern [-10] {-14.5} |4.5|
Bowling Green State AT Western Michigan [7] {3} |4|
Louisiana-Lafayette AT South Alabama [1.5] {-2.5} |4|
Massachusetts AT Eastern Michigan [3.5] {7} |3.5|
Nebraska AT Rutgers [13] {9.5} |3.5|
New Mexico AT Boise State [-26.5] {-30} |3.5|
Texas-El Paso AT Old Dominion [-1] {-4.5} |3.5|
Tulane AT Army [-6] {-2.5} |3.5|
Arkansas AT Louisiana State [-10.5] {-7.5} |3|
Georgia State AT Texas State [0] {-3} |3|
Michigan AT Indiana [15.5] {12.5} |3|
Texas AT West Virginia [-11.5] {-8.5} |3|
North Carolina State AT Florida State [-7] {-9.5} |2.5|
Wake Forest AT Notre Dame [-24.5] {-27} |2.5|
Florida International AT Marshall [-10] {-12} |2|
Oregon AT Stanford [-12] {-10} |2|
Kansas State AT Texas Tech [-7] {-5.5} |1.5|
Georgia AT Auburn [-2.5] {-1.5} |1|
Oklahoma AT Baylor [-2] {-3} |1|
Wyoming AT San Diego State [-22.5] {-23.5} |1|
Virginia Tech AT Georgia Tech [-4] {-3.5} |0.5|
Alabama AT Mississippi State [7.5] {8} |0.5|
Maryland AT Michigan State [-16] {-15.5} |0.5|
San Jose State AT Nevada [-0.5] {-1} |0.5|
Northern Illinois AT Buffalo [6] {6} |0|
Fresno State AT Hawaii [-4.5] {-4.5} |0|
Kentucky AT Vanderbilt [3.5] {3.5} |0|
Texas-San Antonio AT Charlotte [6] {6} |0|
Utah State AT Air Force [0] {0} |0|

The Situation
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Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

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RE: Week 11 & 12 OPPA+- CFB Score & Spread Projections

Posted: 11/12/2015 10:25:40 PM

To clarify, the spreads listed above for OPPA and Vegas are still a 50-50 proposition.

Betting one way or the other when OPPA and Vegas are most different isn't going to help your 50-50 odds much either.

I posted the OPPA comparison to Vegas for cc-cat just so he didn't spend time looking for information I already had.

This is just one part of the game of trying to beat the spread. There are a number of additional factors not covered here that I use to eliminate games from contention (including games that are 7 or more points different than Vegas).

My objective was to demonstrate to BTC, if no one else, that I am capable of producing automated spreads that pass the "eye test" of the general public. On a quantifiable basis, the OPPA spread relates as well as (or better than) Vegas to the final end of game score margin outside of the first 4-5 weeks of the season. Last week for example, the OPPA spread was on average 280% different than the final margin of all games. Vegas was on average 640% different than the final margin of all games.

Long story short, piss off, BTC.

P.S.

My biggest hint that I've found sifting through all this data the past couple years is that the winner (not necessarily the favorite) of one-possession spread games cover the Vegas spread >90% of the time. This is important because the effect of the spread on the odds in this bracket is nearly neutralized. In the one-possession spread range the choice is most nearly on who you think will win, not who you think will win AND whether or not they will cover.

Last Edited: 11/12/2015 10:33:33 PM by The Situation

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