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Topic: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Topic: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

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Parkersburgwvcat
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Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 9/29/2015 4:39:41 PM

I was a bit dismayed when I saw my first Vegas line for the Cats/Kron game at 2 1/2. The fact that we are not even spotting a field goal is scary. Vegas obviously thinks that we will have a tough time getting up off the canvas and refocusing after that bitter Minny loss. Since the opening line was not even 3 full points, this tells me that Vegas is BEGGING bettors to take Ohio. You can disagree if you like, but I know of what I speak.
Lordy, I hope they are wrong and we hand their asses to the Zippers just as we did last year.

L.C.
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RE: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 9/29/2015 5:42:31 PM

Actually it opened with Ohio a 4 point favorite, but it was quickly bet down to 2.5. That isn't surprising. What surprises me is that it didn't get bet down further. I thought that by game time it would be 1-2 points in Akron's favor.

Why isn't it surprising? Several reasons:
1. It's Akron's homecoming.
2. Akron had a much easier time last week than Ohio. Those battles take a toll.
3. Ohio has a pretty scary injury situation at the moment. That is particularly true at QB. Vick has an ankle injury, and was recovering from an elbow injury. Sprague is out with an unknown upper body injury that has him in a sling. Windham has a knee injury. Solich thinks Vick can play, but will he be 100%?
4. Pre-season 3 pundits picked Akron to win the East (Phil Steele, Gold Sheet, and D.Ratings.com). Only two picked Ohio (McIllece Sports, Harris).
5. Akron was struggling at QB, but last week they made a switch, and it worked well for them.
(6. El Gato Roberto, who pretty much wins the pick 'em every year has Akron beating Ohio.)

I certainly hope Vegas is right that Ohio will win. I'll take a two point win, to be honest. Sure, I hope for a big win, but in the end a win is a win.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Monroe Slavin
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RE: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 9/29/2015 10:51:07 PM

Please just stop it. We could play Sussex Elementary School and, in the 11th year, you'd find them a formidable opponent and a victory over them a real achievement.

The M word is sad to have as a standard.

Where's the band?!
WHERE"S THE BAND?!

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El Gato Roberto
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RE: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 9/29/2015 11:13:39 PM

L.C. wrote:

(6. El Gato Roberto, who pretty much wins the pick 'em every year has Akron beating Ohio.)

If you recall, my bookend prediction to Ohio's run for the MACC is my beloved Chicago Cubs winning the World Series for the first time since 1908...I submit the following for your consideration

"So the last time the Cubs won a World Series was 1908.Thats 107 years ago.The Cubs wildcard game is on 10/7 at 7:08 which in military time is 1908.Are the stars lining up?"

(Insert Twilight Zone theme music)

"The name's Ohio University, but everybody calls me Ohio. Any of you guys call me Ohio U, and I'll kill you."

OhioCatFan
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RE: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 9/30/2015 12:23:47 AM

El Gato Roberto wrote:

L.C. wrote:

(6. El Gato Roberto, who pretty much wins the pick 'em every year has Akron beating Ohio.)

Boy, I hope you are right about the Cubs! I must admit that I'm a recovering Cub fan. After years of having my heart torn out and kicking a radio over a cliff in my parents' backyard in '67 as the Cub failed to win games in the at crucial last series of the season and breaking door hinges in my own house in 7th inning of the 5th game in '84, I've not followed the Cubs with near the intensity of bygone days. However, whenever they get in the playoffs, my hopes rise again -- like those fans of the Mudville 9 in that famous poem -- and I'll be there rooting for my Cubs. If they would win, my old regret would be that they didn't do it while Ernie was still alive. Mr. Cub was my childhood hero.

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

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ytownbobcat
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RE: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 9/30/2015 9:15:44 AM

If you ask me that line should be Ohio -9.5. Just saying.
I had the opportunity to watch a few of the Zips games on ESPN3. Their offense is a work in progress.

OhioBobcat
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RE: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 9/30/2015 9:42:25 AM

Parkersburgwvcat wrote:

For crying out loud, it's Akron, relax. Ohio owns Akron and where there's a way to stumble and fail when these two teams play, Akron finds it.

Paul Graham
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RE: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 9/30/2015 10:23:54 AM

I remember reading somewhere during the Summer that Akrons seniors really want to beat us this year. So expect them to be motivated...and with us coming off a hard-fought loss to a BCS team this has all the makings of a trap game.

Last Edited: 9/30/2015 10:24:26 AM by Paul Graham

OU_Country
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RE: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 9/30/2015 10:40:39 AM

How is it that the first conference game could be considered a "trap" game?

L.C.
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RE: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 9/30/2015 10:45:37 AM

I'm also a long time Cubs fan. There was nothing more fun that playing hooky on a weekday afternoon, hopping on the "L", and sitting in the bleachers for $1, quaffing a cold one or two, watching Rick Reuschel pitch, or maybe pinch hit, or pinch run. (I mean, how many players were ever used for all three of those skills?)

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

GoCats105
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RE: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 9/30/2015 1:08:37 PM

OU_Country wrote:

How is it that the first conference game could be considered a "trap" game?

Sandwiched between two big games (Minnesota and rival Miami). I'm not so sure it's a trap game either, but I get it.

GoCats105
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RE: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 9/30/2015 1:09:54 PM

OhioBobcat wrote:

Parkersburgwvcat wrote:

For crying out loud, it's Akron, relax. Ohio owns Akron and where there's a way to stumble and fail when these two teams play, Akron finds it.

And now watch them go out an win. Some publications picked Akron ahead of Ohio this season in the MAC and as Paul Graham noted, they are motivated.

100%Cat
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RE: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 9/30/2015 2:03:21 PM

So we are playing in three straight homecoming games (Minnesota's, Akron's, ours). Interesting.

ytownbobcat
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RE: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 9/30/2015 3:46:32 PM

A normal football crowd at Akron on a rainy day (90% chance predicted) is about 3,000 people. High of about 50 degrees predicted with 15 MPH winds.
What do we have, about 6 really good running backs? Guess what we will be doing with the ball?

PLUS:
Most of their players are from Florida and have been on campus about 6 months so I am not sure how motivating "homecoming" is to them.

Last Edited: 9/30/2015 3:52:43 PM by ytownbobcat

L.C.
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RE: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 9/30/2015 5:04:21 PM

ytownbobcat wrote:

I took a look at the stats to see what Akron is good at, and what they are not so good at. It's hard to read too much into the stats given that they played two P5 teams, Oklahoma and Pitt, and then, at the other extreme, their FCS game was against Savannah State, one of the worst FCS teams in the country. Maybe it averages out. In any case, maybe the stats will give us some idea of their tendencies.

Offensively
They average 24.2 points a game, which is in the bottom half of the MAC. Their yards are split almost equally between passing and rushing. Passing, they average 181 yards a game, second from last in the MAC. Their passing has definitely improved since they switched back to Woodson at QB, who played against Ohio last year. If the Louisiana-Lafayette game is an indicator of what we see going forward, they passed for 238 in that game (12/29).

In pass efficiency, they are awful, but much of that is from the other QBs who have lost the starting job. Woodson has a very respectable pass efficiency of 136.6. The other two are 70 and 77.

Rushing wise, they are averaging 173 a game, just behind Ohio in the #4 position in the MAC, and average 4.4 a carry. Considering their opponents, that's pretty good, but it's a mix of some dismal stats against P5 teams, and some padded stats against a really, really bad FCS team. Lafayette is the team that is in a comparable range, and they got 220 yards rushing in that game, and averaged 5.2 yards/carry. Importantly, Woodson was the leading rusher, with 93 yards on 8 carries.

Their Redzone performance stands out among the other stats. They are dead last in the MAC in that regard. Again, that probably reflects who they played, but they have gotten points only 61% of the time. It also reflects that they are only 2-5 on FG attempts.

One other stat that stands out is that they have been very low on both 3rd down and 4th down conversions. They are 22/60 on third down (36.7%) and 0/4 on fourth down.

Defensively
Akron is giving up 22 points a game, good for 4th in the MAC. Their strength is their run defense, where they are giving up only 102 yards/game, and only 2.9 yards/carry (Ohio is giving up 4.7 yards/carry). No one has run the ball effectively against them, and they have give up no explosive plays on the ground. Oklahoma had 100 yards on 33 carries, 3.0 a carry, and a long run of 15. Pitt had 128 yards on 47 carries, 2.7 a carry, and the longest run by a running back was 11. Savannah State had 74 yards on 34 carries, and the long run by a running back was 6 yards. Lafayette had the best success, with 112 yards on 28 carries, 4.0 a carry, and had a 17 yard run.

The pass defense is more iffy. They have given up 230 yards/game passing, and their pass efficiency defense is at 118.7. Both are respectable, middle of the MAC numbers.

Conclusions?
It's hard to draw too much from these numbers because who who they have played, and because they have tried 3 different QBs. On the whole they seem to have an average or so offense, but it is much more dangerous with Woodson in, since he throws the ball more efficiently, and since he becomes their leading rusher. Ohio has always struggled against QBs that run the ball, and this year has been no exception.

Looking at these numbers, I have no reason to believe that Ohio can beat Akron by running the ball. I'd like to think that Ohio can run the ball at least moderately effectively, though. I think Ohio will need to be able to generate at least 100 yards on the ground, and over 4.0 yards/carry average. Looking at the stats, just as Ohio has been vulnerable to runs by opposing QBs, Akron has also had that problem. With Ohio's injured QBs, I don't see Ohio calling many QB runs, though.

To win this game, Ohio is going to have to get some explosive plays through the air, and they are going to have to play very well on defense. I'm going to call for a repeat of last year's score, an Ohio win, 23-20. If it's rainy throughout the game, that typically hurts the pass offense, and then the team with the better run defense wins. Ohio is supposed to have a good run defense, but they have been a bit disappointing so far. This may be a game they need it in order to win.

Last Edited: 9/30/2015 5:10:48 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Parkersburgwvcat
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RE: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 9/30/2015 10:26:51 PM

Bobcat 105: Speaking of a "sandwich game," did you notice how my thread somehow became sandwiched between the Minnesota/Akron thread and The Cubs????

C Money
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RE: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 10/1/2015 10:12:49 AM

Repeat after me:
WE.
ARE.
GOING.
TO.
WIN.
THIS.
GAME.

Why? #1 Akron sucks. #2 Akron isn't that good. #3 It's Akron.

But seriously, I really think Akron's success at ULL is somewhat exaggerated by the turnover differential. It was only 14-7 at half, but three ULL turnovers helped Akron stretch that out to a 35-7 lead before ULL really was able to put together a sustained drive.

Credit Akron's D for forcing the turnovers, but so far (**knock on wood**) our offense has done a great job of not turning the ball over, and I don't think Kron scores as easily on us as they did against ULL.

So, sure, let Vegas set a tight line, because it's only a prediction of what the gambling masses think. A friend of mine, who is much more inclined to gamble than I am, once told me that he loves betting MAC games because if you pay attention the money is easy to make. I think this is one of those games.

And while I may be all in on the green Kool-Aid right now, I'm calling Ohio by 10. 24-14.

L.C.
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RE: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 10/1/2015 10:55:33 AM

Until Ohio shows that it can run the ball against teams with a good defense, and stop the run against teams with a decent running game, I will continue to worry about games like these. I don't think anyone without a good run defense can beat Ohio this year. The teams in the MAC with a good run defense are Akron, Toledo, and Kent, and then NIU, somewhat behind those first three.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Mike Johnson
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RE: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 10/1/2015 11:57:36 AM

L.C. wrote:

If you include as running plays passes to the flats to Papi White, Robbie Walker and Daz Patterson, and if we can complete a few of those with a defender more than two steps from the receiver, they just might loosen up Akron's D against runs between the tackles.

Whatever the weather - and it could well be as crappy as two years ago when Ohio prevailed 43-3 in an Infocision that might have had more Ohio than Akron fans - I'd like to see us begin our first possession with passing on first down.

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Deciduous Forest Cat
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RE: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 10/1/2015 1:12:12 PM

So, I thought we ran the ball pretty well last week against a very good defense, especially between the tackles. When we tried to turn the corner on Minny's D is where we ran into trouble. If we can pick up yards between the tackles against Minny, I'm betting we can against Akron. Question for me is... Is Akron as fast on the ends? I highly doubt they have Minnesota's speed on D. I expect we'll run better this week than last, and we'll balance it out through the air enough for a 10-13 pt win. Also, we had a QB who couldn't run last week... ASsuming Vick, even if not 100%, is at least somewhat mobile this week, I think we have a chance at a good to great day on the ground.

D.A.
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RE: Vegas line vs Akron is cause for concern, believe me

Posted: 10/3/2015 5:35:50 PM

That Vegas is pretty good.

The Few, The Proud, The Bobcats!

And for the record, I hate tOSU, and Ricordati and Torgerson are DB's.

"This isn't just another walkover from the MAC." Kirk Herbstreit, another DB, on College Football Gameday

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