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Topic: What's a Win Against a Winning Team Worth?

Topic: What's a Win Against a Winning Team Worth?

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The Situation
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Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

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What's a Win Against a Winning Team Worth?

Posted: 10/6/2014 8:58:42 PM

I broke down some win-loss data today between 2008 and 2013. The year by year marks for OHIO and the MAC are in the linked thread:

http://www.bobcatattack.com/messageboard/topic.asp?FromPa...

My Observations:

Acronym: Win Vs. Team with Winning Record (WVTW)

Tier 2 - One (1) WVWT ranks middle of the MAC

Tier 3 - Two (2) WVWT ranks top half of FBS

Tier 4 - Three (3) WVWT played in the MAC Championship game (*except 2012 when both NIU and Kent had 4 WVWT)

Tier 5 - Four (4) WVWT Top 30 FBS

Tier 6 - Five (5) WVWT Top 20 FBS

Tier 6/7 - Five (5) to seven (7) WVWT will compete for Big 10, ACC, Big 12 Championship

Tier 7/8- Six (6) to nine (9) WVWT will compete for PAC 12, SEC Championship

- Team with the most WVWT each of the last six seasons has played in the National Championship Game

- Four of the last six National Champions had the most WVWT

- Wins against teams with winning records are an indicator of strength. That may sound obvious to some. But just two (2) of those wins are actually quite difficult to come by for half of college football, and the MAC in general. Half of college football doesn't win twice against a winning team in a given year.

-Four of the last six MAC champions had the most (or tied for most) WVWT. Miami was within one WVWT of NIU in 2010, and Buffalo's only WVWT was against Ball State for the 2008 MAC championship (a year in which no team in the east had more than one (1) WVWT).

----------------------

My hindsight valuation of OHIO football teams (2008-2013)

2008 - Tier 1
2009 - Tier 4
2010 - Tier 3
2011 - Tier 4
2012 - Tier 3
2013 - Tier 3

----------------------

Has Frank regressed? I don't think the data suggests that. I think we've been flirting with Tier 3/Tier 4 for five years now. The easy wins and bad losses look more like noise than anything else. These WVMTs are the real deal, and not just any FBS team comes across them.

The data suggests OHIO will get at least two, maybe three, more chances at a WVWT. If OHIO wins two of those they'll be right back in the top half of the FBS. Three and they will likely be playing for a MACC.

Pataskala
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Member Since: 7/8/2010
Location: At least six feet away from anybody else
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RE: What's a Win Against a Winning Team Worth?

Posted: 10/7/2014 7:11:09 AM

Being in the MAC, we have fewer opportunities to play teams that have winning records, let alone beat them. Most seasons the MAC is lucky to have half its teams on the plus side. Even less among East teams. It's not like the SEC that gets 10 or more teams with winning records. A lot depends on our OOC schedule. Last year, we had three OOC games vs teams that wound up with winning records (L'ville, N Tex and T'erd). Only two of our MAC opponents had winning records (Buffalo and BG). This year we may have two OOC and two or three MAC opponents with winning records. Until the MAC improves as a conference, it'll be difficult to have an impressive number of wins vs winning teams.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

The Situation
General User

Member Since: 7/12/2010
Location: Columbus, OH
Post Count: 957

Status: Offline

RE: What's a Win Against a Winning Team Worth?

Posted: 10/7/2014 8:14:43 AM

I agree. In the last six seasons the strongest MAC teams, 2009 CMU, 2011 and 2012 NIU, and 2012 Kent were only able to grab 4 WVWTs each. That is enough though to be viewed nationally (and more important, objectively) a top 30 team.

It's fair to say a team like OHIO is going to get a shot at about 5 WVWT. The overall strength of the team will depend on the efficiency at which they convert those chances. If they win 60% they're a MAC Championship caliber team, 80% and they're a Top 30 team, 100% and they're a Top 20 team.

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