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Topic: Bowl Picture II

Topic: Bowl Picture II

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Pataskala
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Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/20/2011 10:39:11 AM

Instead of updating the previous chart I posted, I've redone the chart to make it a little clearer as to how many slots are left and how the conferences shape up as of 11/25 (now updated to show Miami(FL)'s self-imposed ban). Conferences can use 6-win teams to fill their bowl commitments, but after that 6-win teams take a back seat to teams that have 7+ wins. EDIT: This isn't right. I forgot that the NCAA changed the rule last year so that 7-win teams no longer have the priority on unfilled bowl slots.

Conference	Bowls	7+ Wins	6 Wins	Total Eligible	Difference	Possibles	6 Losses
ACC	8	5	2	7	-1	1	0
Big East	6	3	1	4	-2	4	3
Big Ten	8	6	3	9	+1	1	1
Big 12	7	5	3	8	+1	1	1
CUSA*	6	3	2	5	-1	0	0
Indies	3	2	0	2	-1	0	0
MAC	3	5	1	6	+3	0	0
MWC	4	3	1	4	0	1	0
Pac-12	7	4	3	7	0	0	0
SEC	9	6	1	7	-2	3	3
Sun Belt	2	3	1	4	+2	0	0
WAC	3	1	1	2	-1	2	1
BCS at large	4	---	---	---	-4	---	---
Total	70	46	19	65	-5	13	9

The CUSA totals reflect the fact that two 5-6 teams (ECU & Terd) play each other this week, so one will be bowl eligible and the other will be eliminated. Of the remaining possibles, EMU, NC State, Air Force and Hawaii must have seven wins in order to be bowl eligible.

With Army and Navy being eliminated, two bowl slots (Military and Kraft Fight Hunger) are available. The BCS at-large spots could also come into play. For example, if Houston remains unbeaten and Boise stays at one loss, either or both could get an at-large invitation, opening up bowls from their conferences (they were nos. 10 & 11 in last week's BCS and should move up tonight).

Last Edited: 11/26/2011 12:25:17 AM by Pataskala

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Shawn Sellers
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/20/2011 11:13:20 AM

Good Chart.

I predict we get to 73 bowl eligible teams, with Purdue, NC State, S Florida, Syracuse, Pitt, Miss St, & Marshall joining the list.

colobobcat66
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/20/2011 4:23:40 PM

NC State plays Wake so that seems like a tough one, but hey they slaughtered Clemson so anything is possible.

bostonbobcat
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/20/2011 4:41:07 PM

Miami (Fl.) imposes postseason bowl ban.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/7261664/miami-hurricanes-forgo-bowl-game-due-ncaa-probe

Shawn Sellers
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/20/2011 6:26:51 PM

colobobcat66 wrote:

NC State plays Wake so that seems like a tough one, but hey they slaughtered Clemson so anything is possible.

NC State hosts struggling Maryland. Wake hosts Vandy.

Andrew Ruck
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/20/2011 10:23:10 PM

I fully expect OSU to go the same route Miami FL went.

Andrew Ruck
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Pataskala
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/20/2011 10:33:09 PM

It might save them from playing Little Sisters of the Poor in a bowl game.

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mf279801
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/20/2011 11:36:45 PM

If they both win out, Houston will get an "automatic at-large" bid, regardless boise's ranking. As I recall it, an "automatic at-large" non-AQ team has to be ranked 12th or better (or 13th-16th and ranked better than the Big-east champion...sorry ranked better than ANY AQ conference champion) AND be their conference's champion. TCU is/will be the mountain west champ. I guess its possible that Boise would be chosen as a true at-large team, but it would be after houston is chosen (again, if houston wins out)

UpSan Bobcat
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/21/2011 8:18:45 AM

mf279801 wrote:

You are right there. I guess the only thing that could change that is if TCU loses to UNLV (long shot) and Boise State and TCU are co-champions. Then again, if Houston loses a game, it would not automatically qualify either.

colobobcat66
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/21/2011 9:02:58 AM

Shawn Sellers wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

NC State plays Wake so that seems like a tough one, but hey they slaughtered Clemson so anything is possible.

NC State hosts struggling Maryland. Wake hosts Vandy.

Yeah, that was a senior moment. But hey, the way things are going, they may lose to Maryland, who knows.

colobobcat66
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/21/2011 9:13:25 AM

ESPN has their week 12 projections up. One guy has us playing the evil empire in Detroit. Anyway, with enough other teams qualifying, they have the MAC with 4 bowls -1 Temple, 1 with Ball State, then both have Ohio, NIU, Toledo.

Somebody remind me how we don't make either the Go-Daddy or Pizza bowl. One guy has us going to Boise-I thought we went to the other bowls mentioned.

C Money
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/21/2011 9:50:21 AM

colobobcat66 wrote:

Somebody remind me how we don't make either the Go-Daddy or Pizza bowl. One guy has us going to Boise-I thought we went to the other bowls mentioned.

Pizza has first pick-they take Toledo.
Go Daddy has second pick-they take NIU
Boise has third pick-they have to take us because as East Division champs we're guaranteed a bowl slot.

Bert Presley
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/21/2011 9:52:15 AM

colobobcat66 wrote:

You mean we could go to Detroit to face the suckeyes?! Let's do this

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Deciduous Forest Cat
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/21/2011 10:22:03 AM

Bert Presley wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

You mean we could go to Detroit to face the suckeyes?! Let's do this

There is a zero percent chance that this happens. Ohio State could be the 10th place team in the Big whatever, they still would only fall to 4th of 5th, at worst, due the number of traveling sheep.

OhioCatFan
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/21/2011 10:53:42 AM

As I understand it, a 6-6 team can only go to a bowl that their conference has a first-line contract with, not a secondary contract. B1G has a first-line contract with Pizza. It's possible that that only way A&M could get out of a trip to Detroit is to pull a Miami (FL).

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bn9
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/21/2011 10:54:44 AM

Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:

Bert Presley wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

You mean we could go to Detroit to face the suckeyes?! Let's do this

There is a zero percent chance that this happens. Ohio State could be the 10th place team in the Big whatever, they still would only fall to 4th of 5th, at worst, due the number of traveling sheep.

I have them at six. Assuming they don't duck out in favor of self-imposing sanctions. I think that the numbers of traveling sheep that follow both Michigan and Nebraska will keep them at four and five.

Pataskala
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/21/2011 9:16:46 PM

bn9 wrote:

Deciduous Forest Cat wrote:

Bert Presley wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

You mean we could go to Detroit to face the suckeyes?! Let's do this

There is a zero percent chance that this happens. Ohio State could be the 10th place team in the Big whatever, they still would only fall to 4th of 5th, at worst, due the number of traveling sheep.

Assuming that O$U loses to Mich, they would be 6-6 along with IL, NW & Purdue which would make them No. 7 for B1G and probably go to the Ticket City Bowl in Dallas on Jan. 1. But if they finish 8th, they would probably talk B1G into sending one of the others to Detroit, in hopes of getting a slot that another conference can't fill. ACC may be short one; CUSA may be short 2 or 3; even the SEC might be down one or two. That might leave some attractive options: Liberty (vs. S. Miss or maybe Tulsa); Kraft Fight Hunger (SF, vs. PAC12); Music City.

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We will survive.

UpSan Bobcat
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/21/2011 10:29:50 PM

The MAC might have at least four bowl spots guaranteed because of their secondary agreements.

According to the original agreement, with Army not eligible for the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, the WAC is supposed to fill that void with the MAC taking the WAC's spot in the New Mexico Bowl. However, the WAC lost that New Mexico Bowl spot with the loss of Boise State (and they also lose two other bowls next year when the others depart. Their one and only bowl will be the Potato Bowl!). So I'm not sure how that works now. The ACC claims to be a backup there with their ninth-place team. They'll have nine if NC State wins this week.

The MAC's media guide claims its No. 4 team is a backup for the New Mexico Bowl (which should be able to fill its spots (Pac-12 7th and Mountain West 4th) and the No. 5 team is a backup for the Fight Hunger Bowl.

The media guide says the No. 4 team also is a backup for Beef O'Brady's Bowl and the Compass Bowl but does not give details.

I guess the MAC would have to back up the Big East's sixth team in the Beef O'Brady's Bowl. Four Big East teams currently are eligible and a fifth one will be for sure because Pitt and Syracuse play each other. Plus Notre Dame could take one of the spots and UConn and South Florida also can become eligible. It seems likely no backups will be needed for this bowl. It also seems unlikely backups will be needed for the Compass Bowl (SEC and Big East).

I couldn't find any details on how the details might have changed, but maybe the MAC is supposed to get a spot in either the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl or the New Mexico Bowl. Either of those could be fun if Ohio could maybe negotiate its way into one of them.

Pataskala
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/21/2011 10:53:58 PM

UpSan Bobcat wrote:

The ACC will only have 8. The Hurricanes have banned themselves from a bowl this year.

We will get by.
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GoCatsGo
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/21/2011 11:27:10 PM

From what I've read, the huskies are pretty close to a lock playing in Mobile, as GoDaddy.com Bowl has the first choice in MAC teams, and NIU is yet to go there. So now it basically comes down to whether the LCPB wants to have Toledo there for the second year in a row, or whether they want Ohio. If I were to predict, which with my prediction skills means they are more than likely wrong, I say NIU to Mobile, Ohio to Detroit, and Toledo to Boise. Temple ends up either in New Orleans or New Mexico. I'd be fine with the LCPB, as it would more than likely match us up with a Big Ten opponent, which would be a good match up for us.

UpSan Bobcat
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/22/2011 8:44:45 AM

Pataskala wrote:

UpSan Bobcat wrote:

The ACC will only have 8. The Hurricanes have banned themselves from a bowl this year.

Yep, you're right. I missed taking that into account. So it seems the ACC certainly won't be able to provide a backup for the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. The actual agreement isn't noted, but maybe MAC gets to fill the void one way or another. San Francisco wouldn't be a bad place to go for a bowl. The bowl's official website is tracking the MAC standings.

Ryan Carey
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/22/2011 1:29:51 PM

O$U AD said they would play in a bowl game if the NCAA allows it.

http://www.cantonrep.com/newsnow/x1431165616/AD-Buckeyes-won-t-turn-down-bowl

Ryan M. Carey
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OhioCatFan
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/22/2011 1:35:10 PM

That's only until the B1G tells them they're assigned to the Pizza Bowl!

UpSan Bobcat
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/26/2011 11:14:34 PM

At this moment, there are 71 bowl eligible teams. Minus Miami, that's 70 exactly. A handful of teams still have shots and at least one more is guaranteed to become eligible.

Hawaii (5-6) can become bowl eligible by beating both Tulane tonight and BYU next Saturday.

UCLA (6-5) needs to win one of its next two games. At this moment the Bruins are losing 22-0 to USC. They also play in the Pac-12 championship game next weekend.

Then there's the mess in the Big East. Pittsburgh, UConn, South Florida and Syracuse all are 5-6. The Pitt-Syracuse winner will become bowl eligible. South Florida plays at home against West Vriginia. UConn is at Cincinnati.

Seems like a good chance for the MAC to get five and maybe even all six bow eligible teams in the postseason (although I wouldn't be surprised if Ball State suffers the Temple fate of last year, ending up as the only eligible team not to get a bowl).

OhioCatFan
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RE: Bowl Picture II

Posted: 11/26/2011 11:26:21 PM

I wonder if Hawai'i will pull a Miami (FL) given the huge scandal that's beginning to unravel there involving point shaving allegations.

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