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Topic: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Topic: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

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Pataskala
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The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/6/2011 5:57:01 PM

Let's assume that the non-conference games play more of a role than conference games when it comes to national ranking for MAC teams, and you have to beat a couple of "somebodies" to get noticed. Here is the non-conference lineup for each MAC team for 2011 (with the team's 2010 record):

Akron (1-11): at Ohio State; at Cincinnati; VMI; Florida International

BG (1-12): at Idaho; Morgan State; Wyoming; at West Virginia

Buffalo (1-12): at Pittsburgh; Stony Brook; Connecticut; at Tennessee

KSU (5-7): at Alabama; Louisiana-Lafayette; at Kansas State; South Alabama

Miami (10-4): at Missouri; at Minnesota; Cincinnati; Army

Ohio (8-5): at New Mexico State; Gardner-Webb; Marshall; at Rutgers

Temple (8-4): Villanova; Penn State; at Maryland; Army

BSU (4-8): Indiana (at Indy); at South Florida; Army; at Oklahoma

CMU (3-9): South Carolina State; at Kentucky; at Michigan State; at North Carolina State

EMU (2-10): Howard; Alabama State; at Michigan; at Penn State

NIU (11-3): Army; at Kansas; Wisconsin (at Chicago); Cal Poly

Toledo (8-5): New Hampshire; at Ohio State; Boise State; at Syracuse

WMU (6-6): at Michigan; Nicholls State; at Illinois; at Connecticut

IMO, Fiami, NIU, Temps and maybe Toledo and WMU probably have the best shots at getting national ranking. Fiami has a really good team coming back, and their non-conf schedule is all Big 6 and/or bowl teams from 2010. Only Mizzou is a tough non-conf opponent. If they go at least 3-1 out of conference, they could crack the Top 25. NIU, which also has a formidable team coming back, has 2 Big 6 and one bowl team. They should go at least 3-1, and could knock off Wisconsin (their coach's former team). Temps won't beat PSU, but could take MD and Army. It wouldn't surprise me if at least one of these three teams shows up in the polls this season.

Last Edited: 3/6/2011 6:04:01 PM by Pataskala

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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/6/2011 7:14:22 PM

While one could argue that to deserve to be ranking you have to beat someone significant, historically that isn't necessarily what has happened. To get ranked, you have to win, and for a MAC team, that would probably mean going undefeated. Realistically I think Ohio has a chance of that. Granted, with the weaker schedule, even a single loss would be enough to prevent ranking, but we'll have to wait and see. Yes, it takes a good team to step up and beat a tough foe. It also takes a good team to show up each and every week, and play good football with no letdowns.

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colobobcat66
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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/6/2011 10:57:21 PM

BG and us have the worse schedules IMO, but I'm guessing if either won out , they'd be ranked.. You'd think it would real tough for any of the 1-5 win teams winning out this year so the usual suspects (the 8- 9-10-11 win teams from last year probably have some slim chance to win out with the realization that nobody in this league is going to beat Alabama or Ohio State and not likely to beat Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State or Boise for that matter. Miracles do happen and that's what it would take to get a top 25 team out of the MAC IMO.

TWT
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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/6/2011 11:15:27 PM

The above schedule illustrates where the biggest shortfall in the football program still exists; in scheduling. Ohio is in the upper quartile of non-BCS schools in football budget after large ICA increases. Its also in the upper quartile of success with 3 bowls in the last 5 years. Where the program has yet to really gain a lot of traction is in fan support and that is directly tied into the consistently weak schedules played, especially at home. Name schools in Peden like Iowa State and Pitt sold out and set the expectation for home attendance for the remainder of the season. The Bobcats are good enough at this point to expect a winning record in conference play every year with many of the programs in the MAC constantly in transition. Ohio should be replacing those SBC and WAC games on the schedule with lower tier BCS programs on a 1 for 1 basis which can't afford a money game. Ohio is widely enough known to do that now. The program needs to also go out and try and schedule more nationally to make the matchups more intriguing. Playing Kentucky or Louisville on the road for the marquee money game isn't going to do it for a prospective recruit in FL or TX. The administration with its schedules is basically saying who cares to the fanbase. The same scheduling principal applies in basketball too, the program must get out there more for TV appearances by playing some bigger names.

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Monroe Slavin
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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/7/2011 1:48:37 AM

First and foremost, the schedule is the schedule so we need to play that and win. It'll be interesting with big question marks at d-line and quarterback but some lads who could help a lot returning from injury.

Yes, we'd all like to see the 'Cats play a better sched. First, see my first point; this year we play who we play. Beyond that, we are limited given the size of Peden and the economics (ticket prices!) of the local area. So, if (...when) we upgrade the sched, it'll probably be by way of road games mostly. WIth the occasional decent but not great opponent in Peden.

All that said, it's interesting to see that most of the other schools scheds are significantly better than ours. Then again, EMU vs. UMich and Penn State, and some of those other games are gonna be about the money, not about the outcome.

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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/7/2011 8:30:34 AM

Much has I like the notion, I can't see Ohio being widely viewed as in the upper quartile of FBS schools. That would be just hovering outside the Top 25. Not many people across the country (i.e. outside Athens county) would place us there yet. Maybe we can get there and then maybe the 1 for 1 strategy will have greater momentum.

We had that opportunity a few years ago with Minn., ISU, Pitt and almost Va Tech coming into Peden. We probably put the kibosh on that by beating Pitt and then not sustaining a winning profile that made our return games to those places a draw.

I'd say at best we're back on the cusp of starting down that road again and with Frank at the helm, we've got a good shot at some of those second tier BCS schools soon.

Robert Fox
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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/7/2011 9:57:52 AM

Wes said upper quartile of non-BCS, not upper quartile of FBS.

TWT
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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/7/2011 8:17:05 PM

Robert Fox wrote:

Wes said upper quartile of non-BCS, not upper quartile of FBS.

Which is something like the top 12-15 of the non-BCS world and one of the tops in the MAC.

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Bobcatbob
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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/7/2011 8:51:15 PM

Oh, yeah. That's right.

Football Jim
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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/7/2011 9:45:35 PM

I am definitely in the minority, but until the Bobcats can win in a dominating and consistent manor, they need to schedule teams that they have a good chance of beating.
When play on the field makes it clear that they belong hosting better squads, then go for it.

Butts in the seats will eventually happen, as will better scheduling. I suspect that getting OU to bowl games more often than not is the strategy. This should help recruit better players which in turn will lead to better non con competition.

When Ohio does start scheduling the better teams, hopefully the players on the field for Ohio will match up skill for skill, thus giving OU a good chance of winning against the better teams.

Growth is sometimes painfully slow.

Hanging in there!

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Bcat2
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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/8/2011 7:09:20 AM

Football Jim wrote:

Patience is a virtue.

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TWT
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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/8/2011 10:23:57 PM

Monroe Slavin wrote:

Yes, we'd all like to see the 'Cats play a better sched. First, see my first point; this year we play who we play. Beyond that, we are limited given the size of Peden and the economics (ticket prices!) of the local area. So, if (...when) we upgrade the sched, it'll probably be by way of road games mostly. WIth the occasional decent but not great opponent in Peden.

The ticket price issue for Athens county has been addressed by having the family packs. For alumni, regular game tickets at Peden Stadium are still very affordable, particularly if you buy on a season basis. Short of the program errupting to the Boise State level the only way to positively effect ticket prices is by upgrading the schedule. On a yearly basis there needs to be a solid FBS team in Peden. Marshall qualifies as such with their large traveling contingent. Every other year there should be a mid to upper level team from BCS leagues or CUSA/MWC in addition to the Marshall series. That would instantly upgrade the non-conference schedule from poor to solid every year. As it is the BCS team on the schedule every year is solid, and usually Marshall is a decent top 80 team that contests Ohio closely. Having the FCS team and WAC/SBC really pulls the schedule down because its like playing 2 FCS squads. I could understand the scheduling philosophy if Ohio was still a 3-4 win type of program like it was before Solich but we've moved beyond that stage.

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Football Jim
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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/8/2011 10:40:30 PM

As far as the New Mexico State game is concerned, they are sick of losing in Las Cruces and beating a team fresh off a bowl game would be a real feather in their cap. They will be bringing it so this game is no cupcake for a team with a new QB.

Hanging in there!

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TWT
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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/8/2011 10:48:09 PM

Football Jim wrote:

You have to look at where we are today. Usually, a good indicator when looking at a program is how well has it performed over the last 5 seasons. The bobcats have averaged 7.2 wins over the last 5, which shows a consistent ability to become bowl eligible. Given that taking the program to the BCS buster promise land will require an upgraded SOS and that annually having a solid BCS level team in the house every year would be a direct boost to ticket sales and fan morale in general it is hard to argue for the WAC/SBC series instead of BCS level opponents. I think in the short term Minnesota or Kentucky money games are OK but I'd like to see those go too for games at places like Texas A&M and Florida State. This years road schedule against a second tier BCS (Rutgers), SBC/WAC school, FCS, Marshall (still down) is going to burn a hole in our computer ratings if we go undefeated.

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TWT
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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/8/2011 10:53:48 PM

Football Jim wrote:

I know on the road and early will make NMSU a challenge for us. A challenge the Cats will likely be able to meet but do you see NMSU finishing with a Sagarin rated higher than 150? Probably not. I'd rather have a top 50-60 team at home that would drive ticket sales for the entire season.

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TWT
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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/8/2011 11:38:15 PM

Not a misprint. The Sagarin ratings from last season of the 2011 non-conference opponents are the following; Rutgers (90), Marshall (113), New Mexico State (172), Gardner-Webb (219) for an average rating of 148.5. The average Sagarin for next years MAC opponents was 138.9 and that is calculating in some really weak MAC East teams. The toughest MAC road game on the schedule is @ CMU (134). This has got to be the easiest schedule ever in the history of FBS football.

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OUcats82
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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/9/2011 1:12:21 PM

Wes wrote:

I hear we are ironing out details for a home and home with Federal Hocking and Parkersburg South...pack 'em in!

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Bobcat36
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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/9/2011 2:32:38 PM

Wes wrote:

Good!

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L.C.
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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/9/2011 5:58:39 PM

Wes wrote:

...This has got to be the easiest schedule ever in the history of FBS football.

Combine that with what could be one of the better Ohio teams under Solich, if a solid QB can be found, and you have the recipe for a very good season, possibly the undefeated one I have been forecasting since i first realized how weak this schedule will be. Let's hope the players are working hard in the off-season to achieve that goal.

The concept of using weak schedules to springboard a program can work at Ohio, as it did at Kansas State. For it to work, you have to have solid coaching that causes the teams to get progressively better, and then as the schedules get easier, winning becomes the norm. Once you achieve that, the program becomes seen as a solid program with a history of winning, and as a program with a stable, competent coaching staff. That in turn causes the the quality of the recruits to rise because that's something important to a lot of recruits - a stable situation with a winning tradition. From that point, then you can start slowly upgrading the schedule at a rate that matches the improvement in recruits, and you can still maintain the stable, winning tradition.

While some here don't like this strategy, I think that Ohio has implemented it very well. The teams have gotten steadily better, and the schedules have gotten weaker, resulting in more and more wins, and now Ohio is starting to develop a reputation as an annual bowl contender. I think the players now expect to win, and expect to go to bowls, and the same is true of recruits. I believe Ohio's 2011 recruiting class is their best yet. Thus, I think from here Ohio can begin to gradually improve the schedule, and that they can continue to win as they do so.

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OhioCatFan
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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/9/2011 6:44:43 PM

I agree with both Wes and LC. And, no, I don't see the contradiction. If we go undefeated this upcoming season, I'll be expecting something better than previously announced in Peden for the 2012 season.

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L.C.
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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/9/2011 8:18:45 PM

I'm fairly certain you wouldn't see the change that soon. What you might see would be an announcement in 2012 scheduling a home and home with someone like a Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, or East Carolina for some future years, say, 2016 and 2018. I would envision that the schedule would have no choice but to continue to include a money road game, plus an FCS school in Athens to get the 6th home game. The other two games might, over the next five years, be upgraded from the likes of Louisiana-Lafayette, North Texas State, or New Mexico State to a regional game with a Big East or CUSA school. Thus the home schedule each year would be an FCS school, a regional BCS or CUSA school, and the MAC games. The only way to eliminate the FCS school would be to give up on the idea of 6 home games a year. If you were willing to accept alternating years of 5 and 6 home games, you could replace the FCS games with another home and home.

Last Edited: 3/9/2011 8:21:24 PM by L.C.

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OUbobcat9092
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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/9/2011 9:39:14 PM

Wes wrote:

You have to remember that when we scheduled Rutgers they were a program on the rise in the Big East, ranked in the top 25 and had Ray Rice there. They have fallen quickly from contending for a Big East spot in a BCS bowl to being a .300 winning % team.

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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/10/2011 9:02:10 AM

Wes wrote:

I'll go on record and predict that overall our scheduled opponents will end up being much better than the end of year ratings last year. I expect Rutgers, Marshall, BG, CMU, NMS, Akron and Ball State all to be better than last year. Call me crazy, but we'll see at the end of the year.

oubobcatjohn
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RE: The MAC team(s) most likely to be nationally ranked

Posted: 3/12/2011 9:44:38 PM

Ohio, BGSU and NIU look like good best to be 3-1. With an unbeaten MAC schedule either could get ranked by November. Ohio and NIU coming off bowl trips so they may be more likely of the three. Ohio could go 4-0. I really like our chances if we get the offense in shape early. Everything is setting up for a really good year. I think 10 wins is very possible for us. This is the right schedule for us. We got some questions but Frank has recruited well and we are coming off back to back bowls. I think we are going to take the next step and win the MAC and finish ranked. We tasted a couple bowl and a couple mac title games. Now we are in good position to have a extra special year. We haven't won a MAC title since 1968 and that was our last 10 win season. We got the most difficult teams at home this year. Rutgers isn't the Ray Rice Rutgers team we played a few years back. We have a legit shot at them this time and we have a far better team now that's coming off two bowls. Ohio isn't a patsy anymore. We are a decent football program. An undefeated non-confrence mark for us may open some eyes where we get a couple votes and after we remain unbeated into November and then go on national TV then we really get the attention on the voters. We are under the radar a bit, but we got a schedule that lets us win games until the QB gets in a grove then we will start to really get it going in MAC play.

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