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Topic: Boca Raton Bowl

Topic: Boca Raton Bowl

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TWT
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Alexandria, VA
Post Count: 5,100

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Boca Raton Bowl

Posted: 11/13/2021 8:13:59 PM

New projection from Bleacher Report has Ohio playing UCF in the Boca Raton Bowl.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2950375-bowl-predicti...

I know the Cats have picked up the pace with a 2 game winning streak but this would be quite the feat.

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

Victory
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Member Since: 3/10/2012
Post Count: 2,269

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RE: Boca Raton Bowl

Posted: 11/13/2021 9:48:10 PM

We could still play in a bowl. Both ways it could happen would require something bordering on a miracle. One way is to actually win the MAC which is still mathematically possibly but a hundreds to one shot. The other way would be to win the final two games, there not be enough bowl eligible teams to fill all of the bowls, and have the highest graduation record of all of the 5-7 teams. I haven't checked on what the chances of the latter happening are but I expect that it is not very likely.

Last Edited: 11/13/2021 10:10:53 PM by Victory

Pataskala
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RE: Boca Raton Bowl

Posted: 11/13/2021 11:56:39 PM

I haven't paid attention to the bowl picture this year because I haven't seen much point to it. But I doubt they'll need 5-7 teams to fill spots. According to the article there are 41 bowl games, so they need 82 teams. A quick perusal of the standings shows there are already 59 bowl eligible teams, and either MOFO or Kent is guaranteed to be bowl eligible; they're both 5-5 and play each other Thanksgiving weekend. So that makes 60. There are also at least 25 other 5-5 teams and nearly all of them are likely to be bowl eligible. Not to mention the dozen or so 4-6 teams that could make it. Granted, I haven't looked at all the possibilities but it's highly unlikely they'll need 5-7 teams. And even if they have to take 5-7 teams, there will likely be plenty from "P" conferences ahead of us in the pecking order.

The MAC will have plenty of teams to fill its slots. There are already going to be at least five bowl eligible MAC teams and maybe as many as nine. I notice Joe Tansey has Buffalo playing Minn in Detroit. Buffalo's 4-6, so he thinks that the Bulls will beat NIU at home next week and win at BSU the week after. Or maybe also get in at 5-7.

I agree with Victory regarding the possibility of Ohio getting in a bowl. Still, given where we were just two weeks ago, it's nice to even be in somebody's conversation at this point of the season.

Last Edited: 11/13/2021 11:58:12 PM by Pataskala

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

Victory
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RE: Boca Raton Bowl

Posted: 11/14/2021 12:17:14 PM

A lot of the prior 15 years Ohio was sitting at about 6-4 this time of year, and since we know that if 3 6-6 teams are sitting home 1 is very, very likely to come from the MAC, the Bowl Projection pages and likely number of eligible teams was a topic of conversation every year. This year it has been largely ignored because Ohio started 1-7.

Teamrankings uses its computer rankings to put a percent chance for each team to win a future game. Once you have that you can easily determine the chances of a team finishing with a certain number of wins. This is the same sort of math that they use to give us a 0.1% chance of winning the MAC Championship which I have shown is pretty consistent if you use the game winning percentages from FPI and Massey. You can see that for every team here:

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/projections/standings /

I added these and get an average of 80.75 eligible teams. Now THAT'S interesting. If the math is right it means that there is a slightly better chance of a 5-7 team going bowling than not and a outside chance of two or three. I don't know what they graduation rates of other potential 5-7 teams are and there are a lot of possible combinations of who the 5-7 schools can be and how many might go bowling. I know that historically our graduation rates have been very good so it isn't unthinkable that it could be us.

The math here is harder to do for me to put reasonable odds on it than a MACC but I suspect that OUr odds of getting a bowl that way are still pretty unlikely but much better than winning the MACC. We still have to win both games and that's about 3:1 against as we'll be about as big of an underdog at home against Toledo as we will be a favorite on the road against BG. It looks like a 5-7 team getting to go bowling is around 1:1. We would still need to beat the other 5-7 schools on the NCAA's graduation metric. I honestly don't know how to think about odds on that. Anyway, this is maybe only a 15:1 shot against us getting a bowl overall if I had to put a number on it. That's unexpected. The fact that Joe Tansey picked us to go bowling makes me think that he might have researched grad rates and that if there is a 5-7 team going and we win out that it is likely to be us and maybe the odds are even a little better than that.

Last Edited: 11/14/2021 2:37:57 PM by Victory

Victory
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RE: Boca Raton Bowl

Posted: 11/14/2021 12:24:53 PM

During the Miami game ESPN put up a graphic showing what the world was like the last time Ohio had a losing season such as Bush being president. Then they said Ohio WILL have a losing season this year with seven losses. We'll if we win the MACC and a bowl then we would be 7-7. I'd say that this is more than 1000:1 against at this point and was much worse than that when we were 1-7 so I don't blame the ESPN guys for thinking 7-7 was impossible. However, It actually still isn't a mathematical impossibility.

Pataskala
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RE: Boca Raton Bowl

Posted: 11/14/2021 2:28:57 PM

The article didn't have Toledo going to a bowl. The Rockets are 5-5 and have at Ohio and home vs Akron on their schedule. So apparently they're saying either Toledo will lose out, finish 5-7 and be passed over for a 5-7 Ohio team, or a 5-7 Ohio team would be picked ahead of a 6-6 Toledo team. The only way the latter would happen is if Ohio breaks a 53-year losing streak and wins the MAC championship, a very remote possibility. It would be fun to see and all of us (well, most of us) could die happy. But I'm not planning to be smiling just yet.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

Victory
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Member Since: 3/10/2012
Post Count: 2,269

Status: Offline

RE: Boca Raton Bowl

Posted: 11/14/2021 2:39:05 PM

Pataskala wrote:

OK, so what probably happen is he was thinking Toledo and ended up typing Ohio.

TWT
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Alexandria, VA
Post Count: 5,100

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RE: Boca Raton Bowl

Posted: 11/14/2021 4:29:21 PM

Out of the other teams with 7 losses Ohio has likely the best chance of winning out since its final two opponents are two MAC schools with losing records in Toledo and BG.

Realistically there is a chance to go 4-8, the program has had at least 4 wins since 2003 which has become the marker for an off year.

Finishing 5-7 and making a bowl has an outside chance, unlike winning the East which requires every game to break the right way.

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

Pataskala
General User

Member Since: 7/8/2010
Location: At least six feet away from anybody else
Post Count: 9,336

Status: Offline

RE: Boca Raton Bowl

Posted: 11/15/2021 12:07:14 PM

Selection of 5-7 teams for bowl games is made according to teams' Academic Progress Rating. The May 2020 APR announcement is the latest I've seen. Ohio is tied for 52nd of the 130 D1A football teams with a 972 APR. That was down from a 981 the previous year, when Ohio was 28th.

Besides the possibility of a three-way tie for first, the MAC East also would have a three-way tie for fourth if Akron and BG each wins one more of the last two than Buffalo does. It would be a real mess if there's a three-way tie for first AND a three-way tie for fourth. I'm not sure how the tiebreakers would play out.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

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