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Topic: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Topic: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

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BobcatSports
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Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/21/2021 4:56:44 PM

There’s rumblings out of Houston and Alabama that Texas and Oklahoma want to join the SEC. That move would certainly blowup the Big 12 more than it already is.

GoCats105
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/21/2021 5:20:44 PM

I've only lived in Austin for a couple years, but I can fully declare that this would require the SEC treating Texas like the snowflakes they are and making them feel special by kissing their collective bums. And call me crazy, but I don't think the SEC would ever do that; they'd probably laugh about it, then take Oklahoma State out of spite.

This doesn't even include the Texas A&M opinion or the legalities behind buying out the Longhorn Network contract, which runs through...Googles real fast...2031.

Last Edited: 7/21/2021 5:22:03 PM by GoCats105

Pataskala
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/21/2021 7:09:33 PM

I don't know if adding either Texas or Okla makes much sense for the SEC or Okla. First of all, going to 16 teams is a nightmare for football. The old WAC found that out. It waters down the rivalries even further, unless you go to ten conference games. But that also means fewer OOC games, which is where its better teams usually get a leg up when it comes to the playoff. Second, Texas football sure as hell ain't what it used to be. They haven't won a B12 championship since 2009 and have been in only one of last four B12CGs. They really wouldn't bring anything to the SEC. As for Okla, they pretty much have a lock on the B12. Why should they want to have to compete with Bama every year, especially with the playoff expansion. As long as they keep up their quality, they'll be almost guaranteed a spot in the playoff.

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GoCats105
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/22/2021 9:23:31 AM

Yahoo Sports podcast with Pat Forde, Dan Wetzel and Pete Thamel saying that Texas A&M is the reason for the story leaking out. Trying to stop Texas from coming into the league.

GoCats105
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/22/2021 9:40:19 AM

Good points being made that I never thought about.

In the first round of realignment, the MO of the big conference was TV markets. Hence why you get Maryland (DC/Baltimore) and Rutgers (NY/NJ) to the Big Ten. All of these conferences were wanting more eyeballs in certain geographic areas on their conference television networks.

Now, streaming services dominate the landscape so cable television subscriptions don't matter as much. What they're looking for is TOTAL numbers. The sky is limit with number of streaming devices watching your conference. So in this sense Texas and Oklahoma makes a ton of sense for any conference, not just the SEC. You could generate just insane amounts of money.

Don't be surprised if any of these other conferences make offers to see what they can get.

Last Edited: 7/22/2021 9:41:24 AM by GoCats105

Andrew Ruck
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/22/2021 10:20:00 AM

Honestly it makes a lot of sense for those 2 to go to the SEC. I'd love to see it come to a point of just 4 big power conferences.

Andrew Ruck
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GoCats105
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/22/2021 10:48:24 AM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

Honestly it makes a lot of sense for those 2 to go to the SEC. I'd love to see it come to a point of just 4 big power conferences.

I think we're headed that way Andrew. If those two kick the tires and jump ship to another conference, you can kiss the Big 12 goodbye and the rest of the conferences will pick up the pieces. West Virginia probably heads back East to the ACC. The Big Ten really wants Kansas for basketball purposes.

I've heard Texas and OU are making calls all over, not just the SEC. So it's not guaranteed they would go there. I wouldn't be surprised if these conferences got into a bidding war to see who could go where. The PAC 12 needs to make some serious moves here to try and get their conference back on the right footing after the Larry Scott debacle. I just don't think they have the coin to pony up anything the SEC or Big Ten would offer.

This morning though, the SEC Network showed a 4-team Pod System for their conference season which I am 100% for.

cbus cat fan
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/22/2021 11:24:42 AM

A few weeks ago Name Image and Linkeness started to blow up college athletics as we know it, now another round of conference realignment. Obviously, it is a arms race that the Non-Power 5 cannot afford to enter. A little known fact is that it has implications on academics as well, since conferences share research capabilities etc. 2021 is shaping up to be another dramatic and traumatic year for college sports. In some ways it makes me miss the old days before conference realignment etc.

OUcats82
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/22/2021 11:41:03 AM

GoCats105 wrote:

Andrew Ruck wrote:

Honestly it makes a lot of sense for those 2 to go to the SEC. I'd love to see it come to a point of just 4 big power conferences.

It may have just been message board banter, but wasn't something in the works years ago about Texas, Oklahoma, and maybe Oklahoma State and Texas Tech moving to the Pac 10/12 (don't remember what it was at the time).

Pac wanted Texas to surrender too much and that killed the deal?

If this does go down, schools like Cincinnati and Memphis who have pushed for Big 12 membership in the past may finally get their ticket punched-but will it still be a conference worth moving to?

Would the Big 10 look to add another team along with Kansas for basketball?

Ohio-The State University

Long Train Runnin'
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/22/2021 12:24:00 PM

OUcats82 wrote:

GoCats105 wrote:

Andrew Ruck wrote:

Honestly it makes a lot of sense for those 2 to go to the SEC. I'd love to see it come to a point of just 4 big power conferences.

Any deal for Kansas means they would probably have to take K-State, too.

Last Edited: 7/22/2021 12:25:13 PM by Long Train Runnin'

SVAC83
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/22/2021 12:57:17 PM

I think this is a power move by Texas and Oklahoma before they get left out. Unfortunately for the big 12 i am not sure it is possible for them to expand and not steal some teams from other power conferences. Their are not enough teams not in power conferences that would make your league more compelling to expand. And the teams you could steal back from other conferences i don't think move the needle either.

I see ohlamoma and texas moving together but could be SEC, Big 10 or pac 12. I also think when this happens you imeditaley put pressure on Notre dame and BYU to join a conference.

If The SEC gets oklahoma and texas my guess is BYU goes to PAC-12 and PAC-12 also probably takes, oklahoma state, texas tech and baylor.

So now you go to notre dame. They dont seem to want to having anything to do with big 10 so i think they got to ACC. I do see the big 10 trying for notre dame and i could see a package deal that would being boston college and notre dame together. If they cant get notre dame i am not sure they really have interest in anyone from big 12. do you really want kansas? maybe you have interest in iowa state? They may go the route of adding pittsburgh and boston college. they seem to have no interest in a WVU or a cincinnatti.

So then this puts the ACC needing to find teams, I dont see them going for ny of the remaining big 12 teams so maybe they are looking at adding a UCF or south florida or west virginia maybe cincinnatti.

either way i think you still end up with a 5th major conference with a mix and match of what is left. i think this conference ends up with maybe west virginia as its anchor if they dont find a home. if not it will be a league anchored with texas schools that dont get in a big conference.

my guess this last 16 team league would have say Boise State, air force, san diego state, SMU, Houston, Rice, memphis, southern miss, louisiana tech, cincinnatti, army, navy, kansas, knsas state, iowa state, maybe a temple or a florida school.

when you look there are about 80 teams that are going to survive.

giacomo
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/22/2021 4:18:23 PM

You said it right : "teams" not schools. Not an amateur operation.

GoCats105
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/22/2021 4:32:35 PM

OUcats82 wrote:

GoCats105 wrote:

Andrew Ruck wrote:

Honestly it makes a lot of sense for those 2 to go to the SEC. I'd love to see it come to a point of just 4 big power conferences.

The Texas/OU Pac 12 was part of the first round of realignment. Texas flirted with the PAC 12 and planned on leaving Texas A&M behind. The Aggies weren't too happy with that, and then the Longhorn Network was the icing on the cake so when the SEC came calling, they jumped on it.

If the SEC (or someone else) goes to 16, you have to think the others follow suit. I think the Big 12 implodes and we're left with the ACC, Big Ten, Pac 12 and SEC. The ACC could nab someone like a WVU and Cincinnati. WVU is sick of all the travel for their away games as it is. Not necessarily for football or basketball, but it's that midweek non-revenue generating sports travel that sucks for them. If Texas and OU aren't in the conference, I highly doubt they'd wanna stay in a league with Kansas State just because.

Keep your eye on UCF too. It's not like the ACC needs another Florida school, but the last time I checked they had a Top Five enrollment figure in the country. If this round of realignment relies on total eyeballs for streaming purposes, UCF blows that out of the water.

If the Big Ten is taking Kansas for basketball, they'd take them for football too. They just WANT them for basketball. As far as the second team...I'd say Iowa State before anyone else.

Last Edited: 7/22/2021 4:36:48 PM by GoCats105

GoCats105
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/22/2021 4:33:33 PM

SVAC83 wrote:

The other possibility is that Texas goes Independent and all this is just testing the waters to see what they COULD get.

The Big 12 really screwed themselves when they stayed at ten teams and allowed Texas to negotiate their own deal for the Longhorn Network. That soured everyone else in the league. Had they added other schools like a Boise State, Cincinnati, Memphis, UCF, etc...they probably wouldn't have these issues and the revenue generation would be that much greater.

Last Edited: 7/22/2021 4:40:16 PM by GoCats105

GoCats105
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/22/2021 4:34:19 PM

Long Train Runnin' wrote:

OUcats82 wrote:

GoCats105 wrote:

Andrew Ruck wrote:

Honestly it makes a lot of sense for those 2 to go to the SEC. I'd love to see it come to a point of just 4 big power conferences.

Any deal for Kansas means they would probably have to take K-State, too.

What makes you say that? Unless there is some sort of state legislature keeping them together, there is no rule saying you have to take your state buddy along. Oklahoma would rather join up with Texas than Oklahoma State.

Last Edited: 7/22/2021 4:35:04 PM by GoCats105

Long Train Runnin'
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/22/2021 7:35:00 PM

GoCats105 wrote:

Long Train Runnin' wrote:

OUcats82 wrote:

GoCats105 wrote:

Andrew Ruck wrote:

Honestly it makes a lot of sense for those 2 to go to the SEC. I'd love to see it come to a point of just 4 big power conferences.

Any deal for Kansas means they would probably have to take K-State, too.

That was exactly what I meant. I think I read something once when one of the earlier realignment cycles occurred that Kansas and Kansas State are a package deal because of the governor and the state legislature.

Pataskala
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/22/2021 10:42:16 PM

The biggest catalyst for this seems to be that ESPN and Fox have refused to begin negotiations over renewing their B12 contracts, which expire in 2025. No renewal from them would probably mean that CBS (which lost the SEC to ESPN starting in 2024) and Ballys would be the only networks left to pick up the contract, probably with a smaller payout for the B12. The B12 teams already get about $6 million less per team than the SEC teams.

ESPN will pay the SEC $300 million a year, five times what CBS currently pays. That means the SEC will earn about $1 billion a year (compared to $409 million for the B12). The league already pays about $44 million a year to each team, so the extra $250 million could get the 14 teams an additional $17 million a year, to about $61 million. But if you go to 16 teams, that means each team would lose about 1/7 of that amount, or $8.5 million (if my math is correct). That brings the total down to about $53 million.

It's been reported that Texas would scrap the Longhorn Network -- which is contracted with ESPN through 2031 -- if it joins the SEC.

Any B12 team would likely have to pay a $12 million exit fee, which is what A&M and Mizzou each paid to join the SEC. Given the possible additional money that would likely come from the SEC, that's probably not a big deal for a team wanting to leave the B12 for the SEC.

In order to add teams to the SEC, 3/4 of the current schools -- 11 of the 14 -- would have to approve. A&M would likely vote no.

Last Edited: 7/22/2021 10:46:01 PM by Pataskala

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cbus cat fan
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/22/2021 10:50:12 PM

Tony Barnhart says the vote would be 14-0. No one in the SEC will publicly vote against Texas and Oklahoma coming in for fear they might be booted out. Too much of a big payday with future contracts. BIG 12 supposedly had a meeting today to discuss all of this. What a mess, as I stated in my last post, it sure makes me miss the days before all of this realignment started to unfold.
https://twitter.com/MrCFB/status/1418193197688295424

GoCats105
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/23/2021 3:22:19 PM

cbus cat fan wrote:

Hardly think the vote would be 14-0 considering Texas A&M was left out of initial talks for that very reason. Apparently these discussions have been going on for more than a year and TAMU was never involved. Gee, I wonder why?

cbus cat fan
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/23/2021 3:33:06 PM

GoCats105 wrote:

cbus cat fan wrote:

The cost to any SEC school of being tossed out would be a financial disaster, one from which they could not recover. A & M and Missouri who practically sold their souls to get in are going along with it kicking and screaming. It just makes me sad as to how much has changed in college atheletics since all of this realignment talk began some 10 years ago.

oubobcatjohn
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/24/2021 5:29:59 AM

If pac 12 takes Texas tech and Baylor, big 10 takes Oklahoma state and Kansas. American takes TCU and Kansas State. MAC takes West Virginia and Iowa State.

cbus cat fan
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/24/2021 10:16:17 AM

oubobcatjohn wrote:

If pac 12 takes Texas tech and Baylor, big 10 takes Oklahoma state and Kansas. American takes TCU and Kansas State. MAC takes West Virginia and Iowa State.

It would be great if the MAC could beneift in some ways from this Conference Realignment Madness. However, I can't see Iowa State or West Virginia coming our way. Heck Marshall thinks it would be too demeaning to come back to us, so I doubt West Virgina or Iowa State would. If anything we might get poached a team or two, when things really get crazy. If the Big 12 tried to survive, they might look at Toledo from our conference and Cincy from the American Conference.

Last Edited: 7/24/2021 10:17:29 AM by cbus cat fan

The Optimist
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/24/2021 12:55:40 PM

Conference realignment is never over. West Virginia *should* be in the same conference as Pitt, just like Ohio *should* be in the same conference as Marshall. Does the rest of the ACC want WVU?

I've seen crazier things happen.

SVAC83
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/24/2021 7:20:54 PM

I still think this is about viewers. So Oklahoma and Texas brings a lot of TV viewers. The Big 10 is in the second best position I don't think the big 10 gives a crap about Kansas and i sincerely doubt it is thinking about iowa state.
The big fish for anyone to land would be notre dame. I think the big 10 goes after them hard but loses out. So Now you have to think who can the big 10 grab. I think the other big catholic university makes sense and that is boston college.
I chose pitt as the other team because of big 10 foot print. I guess they could go big and try to land a miami or florida state but that really doesnt make sense. I guess that other team could be west virginia But they have showed no interest in them. it could be iowa state i guess but i don't think they are interested in them. i still think you end up with 5 major conferences unless someone goes big and really blows this thing up and the SEC goes to 20 teams.

mf279801
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RE: Maybe Conference Realignment Isn’t Over

Posted: 7/24/2021 8:39:20 PM

SVAC83 wrote:

I’ve heard an ACC-centric guy (Bud Elliott, 24/7Sports via Podcast) theorize that the ACC wouldn’t be interested in WVU (isn’t that big a brand, isn’t going to draw sufficient media-partner interest to sufficiently increase conference revenues). Likewise with UCF. His thinking was that the ACC would come hard for Notre Dame (and hold at 15-teams in a Pod-based scheduling system) but not go for anyone else (Barring something VERY weird: like Penn State wanting to leave the Big10 weird)

Assuming that the other power conferences don’t say “we’ve GOTTA get to 16 teams, no matter what it does to our per-team conference payout”, there is a small (~10%) chance that we could see Marshall and WVU in the same conference. An equal chance (well, maybe 5%) that we could see WVU in the MAC (maybe paired with…Iowa St or Kansas St??) specifically NOT to be in the same conference as Marshall.

Of the remaining possibilities (~85% IN THE SCENARIO where PAC12 and Big10 aren’t shooting for 16 teams come he’ll or high water)…maybe 20% some sort of rump Big8, 35% some sort of “Big12” containing the remaining teams plus the top 4ish from the AAC, any maybe a 30% chance that WVU returns to its “Eastern Independent” roots.

Thoughts? What do people think? Anyone want to disagree and provide their own crude probabilities?

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