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Topic: Forfeiting games for covid?

Topic: Forfeiting games for covid?

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Pataskala
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Member Since: 7/8/2010
Location: At least six feet away from anybody else
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Forfeiting games for covid?

Posted: 7/22/2021 11:50:14 PM

The NFL has announced that teams could forfeit games for covid outbreaks among non-vaccinated players if the games cannot be rescheduled during the 18-week season. Not clear what an "outbreak" is -- is one player an "outbreak"? Or will it include contact tracing, even among vaccinated players? Neither team gets paid for a game that is forfeited. It's the league's way to pressure players into getting vaccinated. Haven't heard any college leagues threatening forfeits but now that the egg is cracked...

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

mf279801
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Member Since: 8/6/2010
Location: Newark, DE
Post Count: 2,471

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RE: Forfeiting games for covid?

Posted: 7/23/2021 9:05:16 AM

college conferences have stated that COVID-cancelled games will result in a forfeit (ie an L) for the team who�s covid issues caused the game to be cancelled. The SEC has certainly announced that policy, and it�s been rumored (or possibly confirmed by now, don�t have time to check extensively online) that most of the other Division 1A conferences are leaning that way

Rufusbobcat94
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Member Since: 6/13/2018
Post Count: 392

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RE: Forfeiting games for covid?

Posted: 7/23/2021 7:19:27 PM

mf279801 wrote:

Good info.

I could image the SEC easily announcing that policy because the SEC is going to play a game even if COVID clouds converged over the stadium and produced an unrelenting downpour of COVID-filled rain.

Last Edited: 7/23/2021 7:19:51 PM by Rufusbobcat94

Victory
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Member Since: 3/10/2012
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RE: Forfeiting games for covid?

Posted: 7/24/2021 11:48:01 AM

Put your Ohio University math skill to work (and I know this is an oversimplification but it works as a general case model).

First, I want to say about 2/3rds of the population is mostly immune from vaccination or past infection. So, if one person on average infects 3.5 people on average under normal human behavior (no masks, social distancing etc.) the growth of the virus in each generation looks something like this.

1, 4, 12, 45, 150, 525, 1800, 6400, 23k, 79k, 275k, 965k, 3.4M 12M, 41M, 145M

So, it takes about 16 generations on growth for nearly the whole country in be infected. Or maybe 3 or 4 months form the first infection with nearly everyone getting it during the last handful of generations. In other words. Most of the country would have been sick at once and there would have been no hospital or even funeral services available. Some supply chains would have collapsed.

Now, what happens when 2/3 of the county has immunity. Only 1/3 of the country can carry it on to the next generation of sick people. 1/3 * 3.5 is about 1.16 so growth looks like this

1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11

So instead of growth factor of 100M of a few months it is more like ten if life goes back to normal. Most of the people that get severe sickness will be those who made a willful choice to not protect themselves. And while going from 0% to 5% immunity doesn't do much to how fast it a grow going from 65% to 70% has a HUGE impact. This slower growth will slow down that much more if things do get bad again.

I understand the argument of not wanting your fellow country men die, and I understand some small number of vaccinated people will get sick, and I understand that we can't allow hospitals to get overwhelmed or supply chains collapse. However, I think the latter is unlikely to happen as demonstrated above. We aren't at herd immunity but we are lose enough that I don't think explosive growth like that is likely to happen.

Secondly, anyone who is going to be convinced to get vaccinated pretty much has been at this point. It is like why no flat-earther will be convinced by evidence. Evidence doesn't matter. It is more about belonging to a group that has a certain belief and being afraid of losing the support of the group that you feel you belong in if you change your mind. I also understand that this virus is almost certainly going to be around for the rest of our lives and that the vast, vast majority of unvaccinated are eventually going to get it. Really, if that's the case, the sooner that most of them get it the better. Don't wait until you are a few years older.

In other words it is time for responsible people to stop protecting the irresponsible. If you want to take the risk to yourself and your decision to do so mostly only affect those that mad a similar choice then, yes, its a free county. You have personal choice. But understand that's a two way street. An NFL team has the right to not accept the risk to themselves. If I can hire a coach where I don't have to worry about getting sick in the middle of the season you I do have to worry about you getting sick then, well, it is my freedom to show you the door and protect myself.

UpSan Bobcat
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Member Since: 8/30/2005
Location: Upper Sandusky, OH
Post Count: 3,800

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RE: Forfeiting games for covid?

Posted: 7/26/2021 6:26:20 PM

https://www.si.com/college/2021/07/21/sec-football-season...

Six of the 14 SEC teams have at least an 80% vaccination rate, which is hugely above the typical vaccination rate of those states and for people of that age. LSU is reportedly over 90%, while Alabama is close to that.

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