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Topic:  Way too early look at 2020

Topic:  Way too early look at 2020
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/7/2020 6:02:10 PM 
Ohio will return most of the offense (except the QB and Tackles), and almost all of the starting defense (except Hagan and Baker). Much depends on two things. First, can Kurtis Rourke step in and be effective, or alternately, can a transfer appear who can step in and be effective? Second, how good with the defense be? The defense returns almost the entire defense, but the defense was not good for most of the season. It improved against BG and Akron, though it's hard to tell how much, since both were awful. More importantly, they came up with some key stops against Nevada.

Best case scenario, I see the offense continuing to be potent, and the defense being more effective, resulting in a team that is comparable to 2017-8. Worse case I see a team that blends back into the middle of the MAC East.

How about the rest of the MAC? I see the East being far stronger than the West in 2020. The West will have remarkable parity again, and anyone can win it, but none of the teams will be outstanding.

In the East, Buffalo, Kent State, and Miami will all be much better than this year. Akron and BG will also improve a bit. I see Buffalo as far better than anyone else in the MAC, with Miami, Ohio, and Kent competing for 2-4th place. I think all four will be better than any team in the West.

If I had to pick today, it would be:
West
1. CMU
2. Ball St
3. Toledo
4. WMU
5. NIU
6. EMU

East
1. Buffalo
2. Kent St
3. Miami
4. Ohio
5. BG
6. Akron

Edit - I decided not to look quite so far out. 20202 just seemed too far away. ;)

Last Edited: 1/7/2020 8:39:20 PM by L.C.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Alan Swank
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 20202
   Posted: 1/7/2020 6:22:36 PM 
L.C. wrote:
Ohio will return most of the offense (except the QB and Tackles), and almost all of the starting defense (except Hagan and Baker). Much depends on two things. First, can Kurtis Rourke step in and be effective, or alternately, can a transfer appear who can step in and be effective? Second, how good with the defense be? The defense returns almost the entire defense, but the defense was not good for most of the season. It improved against BG and Akron, though it's hard to tell how much, since both were awful. More importantly, they came up with some key stops against Nevada.

Best case scenario, I see the offense continuing to be potent, and the defense being more effective, resulting in a team that is comparable to 2017-8. Worse case I see a team that blends back into the middle of the MAC East.

How about the rest of the MAC? I see the East being far stronger than the West in 2020. The West will have remarkable parity again, and anyone can win it, but none of the teams will be outstanding.

In the East, Buffalo, Kent State, and Miami will all be much better than this year. Akron and BG will also improve a bit. I see Buffalo as far better than anyone else in the MAC, with Miami, Ohio, and Kent competing for 2-4th place. I think all four will be better than any team in the West.

If I had to pick today, it would be:
West
1. CMU
2. Ball St
3. Toledo
4. WMU
5. NIU
6. EMU

East
1. Buffalo
2. Kent St
3. Miami
4. Ohio
5. BG
6. Akron



So based on this analysis and without any upsets or surprises, we're looking at a 5 and 3 MAC season. The inexperience in the kicking game concerns me a bit. Seems like Zervos has been around since Grobe.
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Robert Fox
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 20202
   Posted: 1/7/2020 6:58:01 PM 
This may be the lowest finish that LC has ever predicted for the Bobcats.
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Bobcat1996
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 20202
   Posted: 1/7/2020 7:46:31 PM 
That is ok as I hope the pre season magazines project the Bobcats at 3rd or lower in the east. This current team lost four games by a total of 11 points and three MAC games by a FG. I think the law of averages evens out and Ohio creates more turnovers on Defense and still puts points on the board. I'm not forecasting double digit wins, but the 2020 season won't be a losing season like some think it will be. Based on what LC forecast it would be a losing conference record. CMU and Toledo on the road along with Kent and Miami on the road. Buffalo was projected tops in the east. If what LC says is correct 4-4 in the conference would be a good record.

Last Edited: 1/7/2020 7:49:50 PM by Bobcat1996
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/7/2020 8:24:45 PM 
I think that the top 4 teams in the East will be better than any teams in the West, which is a definite switch. If I had to put records for each, and it is way too early for that, I'd say Buffalo 7-1, Kent 6-2, and Miami and Ohio at 5-3. Note that that is close enough that anything can happen. Now, if both of my possible things happen (Ohio has an excellent QB, and the defense plays like it did in 2006, 2009, 2011, and 2016), then Ohio could become the favorite.

Last Edited: 1/7/2020 9:21:54 PM by L.C.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Bobcat1998
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/8/2020 12:37:53 PM 
I like Kittrell, Maservy, Sink and Danneker back on the line. We didn't skip a beat with Danneker in the bowl game. Just need to find that fifth guy. Both Luehrmans plus ALL of our skills guys will be huge.

Defensively we will miss Hagan but man we have developed depth.

I am most worried about our kicking game. Vandenberg has been around to see Louie and Farkas but is he going to do both? He is listed as both.
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Bobcat1996
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/8/2020 12:45:14 PM 
Ohio signed a punter from Australia who will start classes in January.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/8/2020 1:13:59 PM 
Bobcat1998 wrote:
I like Kittrell, Maservy, Sink and Danneker back on the line. We didn't skip a beat with Danneker in the bowl game. Just need to find that fifth guy. Both Luehrmans plus ALL of our skills guys will be huge.

Defensively we will miss Hagan but man we have developed depth.

I am most worried about our kicking game. Vandenberg has been around to see Louie and Farkas but is he going to do both? He is listed as both.

Kittrell and Sink can both play C or Gaurd. Meservy and Danneker have both played at Guard. The backup for Pleasants at LT is Samson, and the backup at RT may be Hoover, or perhaps one of the Freshmen, Amburgey or Aronokhale. A lot can change by fall, so I really have no confidence in predicting who the Tackles will be.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Valley Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/8/2020 1:19:09 PM 
In my mind I have wondered about moving Meservey to RT. He seems to have the feet.
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Doc Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/8/2020 3:37:02 PM 
Valley Cat wrote:
In my mind I have wondered about moving Meservey to RT. He seems to have the feet.


Yeah he’s quite the athlete. Danneker at 320 can handle RG....my only ? would be LT. Are Jackson or Hoover capable?

I like being a team predicted to suck.

We play much better with a chip on our shoulder.

Last Edited: 1/8/2020 3:37:32 PM by Doc Bobcat
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/8/2020 4:55:01 PM 
While I am at it, I'll throw out a Way too early 2-Deep:
LT - Jackson, Irland
LG - Kittrell, Danneker
C - Sink, Titsworth
RG - Meservy, Rodgers
RT - Hoover, Fernandez
TE - Luehrman, Luehrman
QB - Rourke, Keszei
RB - Allison, Ross/Tuggle
WRX - Odom, Hooks
WRZ - Cox, Harris
WRF - Buckner, Walton

DE - Conrad, Ogun-Semore
DE - Evans, Stai
NG - Caesar, McCracken
DT - Coleman, Burton
SLB - Conner, Wood
ILB - Dorsa, McCrory
WLB - Thompson, Robinson
CB - Brooks, Motley,X
CB - Hudson, Motley,I
FS - Hampton, Floyd
SS - Mitchell, Gill

PK - Vandenberg
Punter - Wilson
LS - Holloway

I will point out that this defense has an awful lot of experience, but they return from several defenses that were not very good. In 2006, a lot of defenders from the not very good 2005 defense returned, and they turned things around and took Ohio to the MACC game. Can this defense do likewise?

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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The Optimist
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/8/2020 8:15:21 PM 
If there's one thing that never scares me about our program under this regime, it's our offensive line. We're basically the Wisconsin of the MAC... It seems like we've consistently got more 300+ lbs guys than not only non-P5 teams, but most P5 teams as well. A big part of it is the continuity... Redshirting guys on the oline year-after-year pays off... You just can't beat a 5th year senior on the oline.

Obviously that leaves the most important position as our biggest variable. Kurtis Rourke couldn't be stepping into a much better position than this considering that he'll be surrounded on offense by experienced players. Any insight if we're ready to roll with Rourke 2.0 or if we're looking a JUCOs?

...

Defensively, it's nice to know we've got 4 seniors at CB. Hagan is one of those "irreplaceable" guys however we've got a copycat (highly-rated florida recruit) in Mitchell. Hopefully that all adds up to a formidable secondary.

Final point: I appreciate LC's depth chart... Only question: Are we still expecting Denzel Daxon on this team? He's a gamechanger on defense.

I've seen crazier things happen.

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/8/2020 8:45:56 PM 
I'm still expecting Daxon, but I have no idea where he will fit in on the depth chart, so I left him off for now. Similarly, I off all the incoming players, and it wouldn't be surprising to see one or two of them on the 2-deep as well, especially if they add some JUCO players this month.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Bobcat1996
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/9/2020 7:31:09 AM 
"Kittrell and Sink can both play C or Gaurd. Meservy and Danneker have both played at Guard. The backup for Pleasants at LT is Samson, and the backup at RT may be Hoover, or perhaps one of the Freshmen, Amburgey or Aronokhale. A lot can change by fall, so I really have no confidence in predicting who the Tackles will be."

LC is correct as keep an eye on Freshmen Amburgey or Aronokhale. They very well could get plenty of reps.
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71 BOBCAT
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/9/2020 10:09:59 AM 
I continue to agree with L.C. on this post.
I would like to add 2 comments;
1) If Kurtis is a better passer than his brother I think that will help offset the running skill from Nathan.
2) I firmly believe that had our D recorded the same number of turnovers as 2018 our record would have improved.



GO BOBCATS
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bobcatsquared
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/9/2020 10:41:24 AM 
A lot has been said about the possibility of a freshman QB mixed in with a lot of experience on offense. For the sake of comparison, Miami had a true frosh lead his team to this year's MAC chanpionship and had a good showing against ULL in their bowl game.
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AlumDadDad
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/9/2020 11:44:33 AM 
A couple of observations based on LC's posts. I sincerely hope that the media and other MAC schools share the perception that we will be a middle of the MAC team next year. As we've seen, lofty expectations have been of no value to us the last couple of years. I am, however, more optimistic for next year. I think that the pieces are there for us to have a great team.

When I look at the skill positions on offense, our WRs, TEs, and RBs are going to be a murderers row (don't forget to consider Wilbon in the mix at RB). Of course we'll miss Nathan at QB next year - that's a foregone conclusion. But there's a lot of potential production to be tapped in that group to help make up for the loss of his productivity.

I also see great potential for our defense next year. The key there will be for the DL to keep the opponents OL off our linebackers. A healty, in-shape Daxon should help there. If LBs like Thompson, Dorsa, and McCrory are free to make plays, then we shouldn't have to rely on a safety to be out top tackler. A return-to-form of sorts for Ogun-Seymore and emergence of Stai to share time with Evans will help our pass rush.

I tend to be an optimist, and I realize that there are big questions next year at QB, in the kicking game, and who will step up on D, but the bones are there for a really good team next year. I think we win next year with a combination of depth and toughness and maybe a little less star power.

Last Edited: 1/9/2020 11:46:10 AM by AlumDadDad
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Bobcat1998
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/9/2020 12:45:28 PM 
AlumDadDad wrote:
A couple of observations based on LC's posts. I sincerely hope that the media and other MAC schools share the perception that we will be a middle of the MAC team next year. As we've seen, lofty expectations have been of no value to us the last couple of years. I am, however, more optimistic for next year. I think that the pieces are there for us to have a great team.

When I look at the skill positions on offense, our WRs, TEs, and RBs are going to be a murderers row (don't forget to consider Wilbon in the mix at RB). Of course we'll miss Nathan at QB next year - that's a foregone conclusion. But there's a lot of potential production to be tapped in that group to help make up for the loss of his productivity.

I also see great potential for our defense next year. The key there will be for the DL to keep the opponents OL off our linebackers. A healty, in-shape Daxon should help there. If LBs like Thompson, Dorsa, and McCrory are free to make plays, then we shouldn't have to rely on a safety to be out top tackler. A return-to-form of sorts for Ogun-Seymore and emergence of Stai to share time with Evans will help our pass rush.

I tend to be an optimist, and I realize that there are big questions next year at QB, in the kicking game, and who will step up on D, but the bones are there for a really good team next year. I think we win next year with a combination of depth and toughness and maybe a little less star power.



Keye Thompson is going to be a monster next year. And McCrory had a great bowl game. Looking forward to having them for several more years. Our LBs and DBs combined are as good of a unit as we've had in a while. And OUr Dlinemen are experienced. If Collins can't do well with this group he gets the axe.
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Valley Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/9/2020 2:25:39 PM 
Regardless if Daxon ever sees the field or whatever he turns out to be the top four defensive tackles returning showed real potential this year and certainly improved as the year went on. Coleman, Ceasar and McCracken showed bursts. I’ve heard a lot of positives about Burton as well.
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Doc Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/9/2020 3:35:55 PM 
Valley Cat wrote:
Regardless if Daxon ever sees the field or whatever he turns out to be the top four defensive tackles returning showed real potential this year and certainly improved as the year went on. Coleman, Ceasar and McCracken showed bursts. I’ve heard a lot of positives about Burton as well.


Yeah those 4 would be a decent rotation and OUr DL signee this year also looks like a keeper. Daxson would be icing on the cake.

I worry a little about tackle depth but Amburgey and Vannest were high rated recruits.

I’m also hopeful that RB Wilbon will see the field this year.

Last Edited: 1/9/2020 3:36:23 PM by Doc Bobcat
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bshot44
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/9/2020 4:51:03 PM 
So basically, you're projecting this ...

NC Central - W
at BC - L
Marshall - W/L
at Texas St - L/W

Akron - W
BG - W
UB - L
EMU - W

at Miami - L/W
at Kent - L/W
at CMU - L
at Toledo - L

I think Ohio splits with Marshall/Tex St as well as roadies at Kent/Miami.

So we're looking at about ..... 6-6 (4-4) ... or best case 8-4 (5-3)

Hmmmm ... that sounds vaguely familiar? Have we had any seasons similar to that in recent years?

Oh .... wait. I'm sorry. I just hate Frank Solich and Ohio football. Pardon me ... I'll just see my way out.

Last Edited: 1/9/2020 4:51:31 PM by bshot44
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/9/2020 8:37:57 PM 
bshot44 wrote:
So basically, you're projecting this ...

Not exactly. Surely Ohio will not lose to Texas State a second time, so I will change that one. I also think that in addition to losing to UB, they go 2-2 on the road in the MAC. That figures out to 7.5-5.5 with 5 pickem games. Go 3-2 and they are 8-4. Go 1-4, they get to 6-6. Go 4-1 they are 9-3.

NC Central - W
at BC - L
Marshall - W/L
at Texas St - W

Akron - W
BG - W
UB - L
EMU - W

at Miami - L/W
at Kent - L/W
at CMU - L/w
at Toledo - L/W

I expect Buffalo to lose a game, and given that they play in Athens, a win by Ohio is possible, and certainly BC is not so good that they are out of the question. In my mind it depends more on the defense than anything. If they can get stops when they need them in close games, the Bobcats can win any of these. If they can't, then it will be at the low end of my projections.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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MonroeClassmate
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/9/2020 9:57:04 PM 
As said earlier, kicking game and QB, spots of concern.

I don't know the record but even with tougher MAC east, the Bobcats should play better football than 2019 in the MAC.

Wide receivers came a long way and the running backs have very good depth if they remain healthy.

Move Ross to be a Papi White with more runs from the slot and bubble screens for him.

Make sure the TE's don't let their QB get decapitated.
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/9/2020 10:19:43 PM 
MonroeClassmate wrote:
. . .Move Ross to be a Papi White with more runs from the slot and bubble screens for him. . . .
I've been thinking the same thing. He looked really good on some "down the line" option plays, as Frank calls them, in the bowl game. He's not our UTM runner. It should be AUTM and TUTM, not RUTM, IMHO!

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Way too early look at 2020
   Posted: 1/9/2020 11:01:22 PM 
Valley Cat wrote:
Regardless if Daxon ever sees the field or whatever he turns out to be the top four defensive tackles returning showed real potential this year and certainly improved as the year went on. Coleman, Ceasar and McCracken showed bursts. I’ve heard a lot of positives about Burton as well.


Pete Germano does a great job!
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