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Topic:  Bowl picture (11/23)

Topic:  Bowl picture (11/23)
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/24/2019 11:08:39 AM 
There are 75 eligible teams and 7 with a chance to become so by winning next week. A 9th, Army, could not be eligible until after the bowl pairings are announced.

Michigan St 89.40%
Liberty 88.90%
N Carolina 72.00%
Boston Col 34.10%
Army 13.20%
Oregon St 4.10%
LA Monroe 3.10%
Colorado 2.50%

So the most likely number is 79 to 80. If this is the case what are the chances of us being one of the one or two teams left out? I'd think its realistic.

1. The MAC is regarded by many as the worst conference this year though CUSA might be just as bad. But, I doubt that we are getting in ahead of of the Tulanes and Utah States that might be out there who have played better schedules.

2. Since we have such a long bowl streak there is no novelty for OUr fan base.

3. We are going to be far away from any opening. This is a disadvantage with respect to the Florida Internationals an UL-Monroes out there.


To Ohio's advantage there might be numerous MAC 6-6 teams and we will be regarded as better and probably more exciting to watch that most of them.


EDIT: Corrected for Liberty non being fully eligible yet. Changed Army probability to only being eligible if they win both games. Changed Ohio, Kent & Miss. St to eligible and Missouri, TCU, Troy & Nebraska to ineligible

Last Edited: 11/29/2019 9:32:20 PM by Victory
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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/24/2019 11:38:26 AM 
Here's the rundown by conference. There are 72 in this week. Another 15 could be bowl eligible. Liberty has to win seven because it plays more than one 1AA school. Army has to win seven games because it plays 13 games. Mizzou is ineligible at the moment, but it has appealed, so it's on the list with an asterisk.

AAC (6 slots)
In (7): SMU, Cincy; Memphis; Navy; UCF; Tulane; Temple
Out (5): UConn; Tulsa; ECU; Houston; USF

ACC + ND (11 slots)
In (9): Clemson; Wake; ND; Pitt; UVA; MiamiF; FSU; VaTech; L'ville
Precarious (2): BC (5-6); UNC (5-6)
Out (4): GaTech; NCSt; Syracuse; Duke
This week: UNC at NCSt, BC at Pitt

B10 (9 slots)
In (8): O$U; Minn; PennSt; Wis; Ind; Iowa; Mich; Ill
Precarious (2): Neb (5-6); MSU (5-6)
Out (4): Rutgers; NWern; MD; Purdue
This week: MSU at MD, Iowa at Neb

B12 (6 slots)
In (6): Okla; Baylor; KState; OklaSt; Texas; IowaSt
Precarious (1): TCU (5-6)
Out (3): Kansas; WVU; TxTech
This week: WVU at TCU

CUSA (5 slots)
In (8): LaTech; UAB; T'erd; FAU; WKU; SMiss; Charlotte; FIU
Out (6): Rice; ODU; UTEP; MTSU; NTex; UTSA

Indies (1 slot ‒ BYU)
In (1): BYU
Precarious (2): Liberty (6-5)+; Army (5-6)+
Out (2): NMSU; UMass
Games remaining: NMSU at Liberty; Army at Hawaii, vs Navy

MAC (5 slots)
In (6): CMU; Toledo; WMU; Fiami; Buffalo; EMU
Precarious (2): OHIO (5-6); Kent (5-6)
Out (4): Akron; BG; NIU; BSU
This week: OHIO at Akron, Kent at EMU

MWC (6 slots)
In (7): Boise; SDSU; Wyo; AFA; Nevada; Hawaii; UtahSt
Out (5): UNLV; NM; ColoSt; SJSt; Fresno

Pac12 (7 slots)
In (7): Oregon; Utah; Wash; USC; Cal; ArizSt; WashSt
Precarious (2): Colo (5-6); OregonSt (5-6)
Out (3): Stanford; UCLA; Ariz
This week: Colo at Utah, OregonSt at Oregon

SEC (10 slots)
In (8): LSU; Bama; Auburn; Fla; UGA; TxAM; UK; Tenn
Precarious (2): Mizzou (5-6)*; MissSt (5-6)
Out (4): Ark; Vandy; SoCar; Miss
This week: Miss at MissSt, Mizzou at Ark

Sun Belt (5 slots)
In (5): AppSt; GaSt; Louisana; ArkSt; GaSo
Precarious (2): ULM (5-6); Troy (5-6)
Out (3): SBama; TxSt; Coastal
This week: AppSt at Troy, ULM at Louisiana

At-large slots: Playoff (4); NY6 (2); Frisco Bowl (1)

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.
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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/24/2019 1:30:14 PM 
Scoping out the bowl slots that mostly likely will be open after the dust settles.

ACC currently is two bowl-eligible teams short of meeting its commitments, possibly three if Clemson is in the playoff -- Quick Lane Bowl (vs B10). possibly Independence Bowl (vs SEC), possibly Military Bowl (vs AAC)

B10 currently is down one bowl-eligible team, could be down two if O$U is in the playoff -- Armed Forces Bowl (vs MWC), possibly Quick Lane Bowl (vs ACC)

SEC currently is down two bowl-eligible teams, could be down three or four depending on the playoff situation -- Independence Bowl (vs ACC), Birmingham Bowl (vs AAC), possibly Liberty Bowl (vs B12), possibly Belk Bowl (vs ACC)

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
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Long Train Runnin'
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/24/2019 3:51:57 PM 
It seems to me that the folks at ESPN like Ohio, particularly Coach Solich. They can be a fun and exciting team to watch, and they have some compelling storylines. That could figure in the Bobcats' advantage for a bowl bid.
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FanInTheStands
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/25/2019 7:54:10 AM 
Long Train Runnin' wrote:
It seems to me that the folks at ESPN like Ohio, particularly Coach Solich. They can be a fun and exciting team to watch, and they have some compelling storylines. That could figure in the Bobcats' advantage for a bowl bid.


Add in the fact that Ohio is the only MAC program to win its bowl games the last 2 years and that might make them more attractive as a participant as well.
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/25/2019 10:00:39 AM 
FanInTheStands wrote:
Long Train Runnin' wrote:
It seems to me that the folks at ESPN like Ohio, particularly Coach Solich. They can be a fun and exciting team to watch, and they have some compelling storylines. That could figure in the Bobcats' advantage for a bowl bid.


Add in the fact that Ohio is the only MAC program to win its bowl games the last 2 years and that might make them more attractive as a participant as well.


All of the above. And, then they can get their interview in the booth with Papa Burrow again, and use it to hype the playoffs. ESPN loves that! ;-)

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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Tymaster
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/25/2019 10:40:39 AM 
Yes, interestingly enough the Bowl Projectors don't have us in any MAC affiliated bowls this week but at places like First Responders and Armed Forces...
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71 BOBCAT
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/25/2019 10:48:46 AM 
The only way we have a chance of a bowl game is if the following happens;
Ohio wins @ Akron

2 of the following needs to occur;
EMU loses to Kent
Toledo loses to CM
Buffalo loses to BG

If this occurs then there will be only 3 OR 4 teams in with at least 7 wins. If we have agreements for 5 bowls then there are 1 opening left. At least 1 6-6 team will be selected and I believe Ohio will be the one do to numerous factors.


GO BOBCATS

Last Edited: 11/25/2019 10:50:23 AM by 71 BOBCAT
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UpSan Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/25/2019 12:30:45 PM 
The five MAC-affiliated bowls plus the two secondary (of which, one looks almost certain to have an opening for a MAC school) do not have to pick seven-win teams over six-win teams. I still find it hard to believe there would be five or even four MAC schools that they'd pick ahead of Ohio. The Bobcats will be 5-3 in conference, compared to 4-4 for most of the others, and have a win over Buffalo.
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/25/2019 12:32:19 PM 
71 BOBCAT wrote:
The only way we have a chance of a bowl game is if the following happens;
Ohio wins @ Akron

2 of the following needs to occur;
EMU loses to Kent
Toledo loses to CM
Buffalo loses to BG

If this occurs then there will be only 3 OR 4 teams in with at least 7 wins. If we have agreements for 5 bowls then there are 1 opening left. At least 1 6-6 team will be selected and I believe Ohio will be the one do to numerous factors.


GO BOBCATS


This is assuming that we have to get a MAC bowl to go to a bowl. This is probably not the way we would get a bowl. The bowls want P5 teams and over sign contracts with them much of the time. There will be a few open slots in bowls that didn't cover their contracts.
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Tymaster
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/25/2019 1:27:45 PM 
Victory wrote:
71 BOBCAT wrote:
The only way we have a chance of a bowl game is if the following happens;
Ohio wins @ Akron

2 of the following needs to occur;
EMU loses to Kent
Toledo loses to CM
Buffalo loses to BG

If this occurs then there will be only 3 OR 4 teams in with at least 7 wins. If we have agreements for 5 bowls then there are 1 opening left. At least 1 6-6 team will be selected and I believe Ohio will be the one do to numerous factors.


GO BOBCATS


This is assuming that we have to get a MAC bowl to go to a bowl. This is probably not the way we would get a bowl. The bowls want P5 teams and over sign contracts with them much of the time. There will be a few open slots in bowls that didn't cover their contracts.

This. It doesn't like we're going to a MAC Bowl. Which is fine. Something different is always good. It will all shake itself out the first weekend in December.
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Andrew Ruck
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/25/2019 4:21:50 PM 
I think it should count for something that 5 of Ohio's 6 losses are against teams that will be in bowls. I think a lot of the other 6-6 or 7-5 teams will have 2-3 losses to non-bowl teams. It should also count that 4 of the 6 losses were by a FG or less. I realize I am using metrics that would help suggest which of these mediocre record teams are the most talented and likely to succeed...and a lot of these bowls have other criteria above that.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/25/2019 4:42:02 PM 
Andrew Ruck wrote:
I think it should count for something that 5 of Ohio's 6 losses are against teams that will be in bowls. I think a lot of the other 6-6 or 7-5 teams will have 2-3 losses to non-bowl teams. It should also count that 4 of the 6 losses were by a FG or less. I realize I am using metrics that would help suggest which of these mediocre record teams are the most talented and likely to succeed...and a lot of these bowls have other criteria above that.


If we're talking style points, EMU, Toledo and Buffalo have all beaten OOC bowl-eligible teams: EMU beat Illinois, Toledo beat BYU and Buffalo beat Temple.

Still, I think Ohio has a leg up on EMU and Kent (and maybe Buffalo) for putting butts in seats and eyes tubes. All four travel about the same but Ohio has had a lot more national exposure through the years than the other three.

Last Edited: 11/25/2019 4:46:02 PM by Pataskala

We will get by.
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We will survive.
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/25/2019 6:45:30 PM 
Jerry Palm (CBS) 12/30 First Responder Bowl (Dallas) vs. Florida Atlantic
Kyle Bonagura (ESPN) No Bowl
Mark Schlabach (ESPN) 1/4 Armed Forces Bowl (Fort Worth) vs. Air Force
Brant Parsons (Orlando Sentinel) 1/3 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Boise) vs. Wyoming
Erick Smith (USAToday) 1/2 Birminghan Bowl (Birmingham) vs. Cincinnati
Pete Fiutak (CFN) 12/28 Cheez-It Bowl (Phoenix) vs. Kansas St.
Jason Kirk (SBNation) 12/21 Camellia Bowl (Montgomery) vs. Georgia Southern
Michael Shapiro (SI) 12/21 Camellia Bowl (Montgomery) vs. Georgia St.
Bill Bender (TSN) No Bowl
Steven Lassan (Athlon) 1/4 Armed Forces Bowl (Fort Worth) vs. Air Force
College Sports Madness 12/20 Bahamas Bowl (Nassau) vs. UAB
Nick Bromberg (Yahoo) 1/4 Armed Forces Bowl (Fort Worth) vs. Western Kentucky
Stewart Mandel (Fox) Putting NY6 only on Fox. The rest on The Athletic behind a paywall this year
Brett McMurphy (Watch Stadium) 1/4 Armed Forces Bowl (Fort Worth) vs. Utah State
Joe Tansey (Bleacher Report) No Bowl
Kerry Miller (Bleacher Report) 12/20 Frisco Bowl (Frisco) vs. Southern Miss
Brad Crawford (247Sports) 12/20 Bahamas Bowl (Nassau) vs. Florida Atlantic

EDIT: All are updated for this week now

Last Edited: 11/29/2019 6:18:32 PM by Victory
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OUbobcat9092
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/25/2019 8:01:17 PM 
Army cannot be eligible.

Since they play 13 games they need to have 7 wins, but they have also won against 2 non-D1 teams, and can only count 1 as a win.
So as of now they have 5 wins, but can only count 4 of them.

With only 2 games left (and one after the bowls are announced) they cannot get to 7 wins (with 6 vs. D1 teams)

Bring Back Men's Track & Field

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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/25/2019 11:31:32 PM 
Pataskala wrote:
Andrew Ruck wrote:
I think it should count for something that 5 of Ohio's 6 losses are against teams that will be in bowls. I think a lot of the other 6-6 or 7-5 teams will have 2-3 losses to non-bowl teams. It should also count that 4 of the 6 losses were by a FG or less. I realize I am using metrics that would help suggest which of these mediocre record teams are the most talented and likely to succeed...and a lot of these bowls have other criteria above that.


If we're talking style points, EMU, Toledo and Buffalo have all beaten OOC bowl-eligible teams: EMU beat Illinois, Toledo beat BYU and Buffalo beat Temple.

Still, I think Ohio has a leg up on EMU and Kent (and maybe Buffalo) for putting butts in seats and eyes tubes. All four travel about the same but Ohio has had a lot more national exposure through the years than the other three.


Putting butts in seats? How many tickets have we been selling?
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Tymaster
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/26/2019 12:15:20 PM 
Not a lot but more than other MAC programs. It's all relative but every person that goes to a bowl game spends far more than just the cost of the ticket, so even if you're only talking about a few hundred more bodies - you're talking about tens of thousands of dollars being generated.
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bshot44
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/26/2019 12:16:54 PM 
So if Ohio goes 7-6 and wins another meaningless bowl game ... would this season suddenly be deemed a success?

Bowl games get less and less meaningful each year.

A 6-6 team beating a unmotivated 8-4 team ... is that really something so great?

I think it's great for the players to get one more chance to play a game, the bowl experience and everything that comes along with it.

But as a fan ... it's hard to get excited about another season of high hopes ending in disappointment and then trying to get hyped for a game that might as well be a scrimmage because you don't know A) who cares to even be there and B) who is even going to play because of NFL draft stock

It's a broken system ... obviously. When you have 78 bowls teams that most are barely a game or two over .500 is a bowl really a "reward"?

An Armed Forces Bowl win over Utah State isn't going to suddenly make 2019 a great season? I hope people can see that ...
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bshot44
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/26/2019 12:19:31 PM 
Tymaster wrote:
Not a lot but more than other MAC programs. It's all relative but every person that goes to a bowl game spends far more than just the cost of the ticket, so even if you're only talking about a few hundred more bodies - you're talking about tens of thousands of dollars being generated.


I was in Frisco last year ... and even with that rain, it was a sad, sad scene. It looked like a midweek MACtion game in terms of crowd.

Not sure Ohio brought any more fans than any other MAC school would have. Very little local interest. And San Diego St brought nearly nobody.

I'm not sure that crowd would have filled Nelsonville-York's football stadium
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Robert Fox
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/26/2019 12:52:10 PM 
bshot44 wrote:

An Armed Forces Bowl win over Utah State isn't going to suddenly make 2019 a great season?


That's up to you. Don't worry about what everybody else thinks.
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colobobcat66
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/26/2019 12:57:06 PM 
BillyTheCat wrote:
Pataskala wrote:
Andrew Ruck wrote:
I think it should count for something that 5 of Ohio's 6 losses are against teams that will be in bowls. I think a lot of the other 6-6 or 7-5 teams will have 2-3 losses to non-bowl teams. It should also count that 4 of the 6 losses were by a FG or less. I realize I am using metrics that would help suggest which of these mediocre record teams are the most talented and likely to succeed...and a lot of these bowls have other criteria above that.


If we're talking style points, EMU, Toledo and Buffalo have all beaten OOC bowl-eligible teams: EMU beat Illinois, Toledo beat BYU and Buffalo beat Temple.

Still, I think Ohio has a leg up on EMU and Kent (and maybe Buffalo) for putting butts in seats and eyes tubes. All four travel about the same but Ohio has had a lot more national exposure through the years than the other three.


Putting butts in seats? How many tickets have we been selling?


I would guess 200-600, not counting the 110, but it’s just a really wild guess. There seems to be a couple hundred at the Bashes before the games that I’ve gone to.

Last Edited: 11/26/2019 12:58:11 PM by colobobcat66
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/26/2019 2:10:51 PM 
Missouri is out.
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greencat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/26/2019 3:40:53 PM 
Victory wrote:
Missouri is out.


USA Today now projects Ohio vs Cincinnati in the not so glamorous Birmingham Bowl on Jan. 2nd at 2pm central. Hotel prices for that night seem reasonable around the town. Be careful what part of town you pick if it happens.

If the weather is good and if the 110 plays, I'll probably go.
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Mark Lembright '85
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/26/2019 4:46:40 PM 
greencat wrote:
Victory wrote:
Missouri is out.


USA Today now projects Ohio vs Cincinnati in the not so glamorous Birmingham Bowl on Jan. 2nd at 2pm central. Hotel prices for that night seem reasonable around the town. Be careful what part of town you pick if it happens.

If the weather is good and if the 110 plays, I'll probably go.


Were we last year's team I'd say that's a win for Ohio. This year's team, yeah not so much.....

Although, that bowl game game would be a huge comedown for UC, the #19th ranked team in the country. They deserve a much better bowl game than that. Maybe Ohio would catch them off guard.
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bshot44
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  Message Not Read  RE: Bowl picture (11/23)
   Posted: 11/26/2019 5:29:53 PM 
Mark Lembright '85 wrote:
greencat wrote:
Victory wrote:
Missouri is out.


USA Today now projects Ohio vs Cincinnati in the not so glamorous Birmingham Bowl on Jan. 2nd at 2pm central. Hotel prices for that night seem reasonable around the town. Be careful what part of town you pick if it happens.

If the weather is good and if the 110 plays, I'll probably go.


Were we last year's team I'd say that's a win for Ohio. This year's team, yeah not so much.....

Although, that bowl game game would be a huge comedown for UC, the #19th ranked team in the country. They deserve a much better bowl game than that. Maybe Ohio would catch them off guard.


Totally agree ... what a slap in the face for UC.

Go 11-1 ... make your league title game ... and you reward is to face a 6-6 MAC team.

C'mon! Bowl system is garbage.
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