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Topic:  Pre-season MAC Consensus 2018

Topic:  Pre-season MAC Consensus 2018
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  Pre-season MAC Consensus 2018
   Posted: 5/30/2018 11:27:37 AM 
The picks are starting to come out:
http://www.stassen.com/preseason/consensus/2018.html#mac

Here's my pick, and the number of conference wins and total wins I project:
East:
Ohio 1 (6.6,9.9)
Buffalo 2 (5.5,8.2)
Miami 3 (5.3,7.3)
Akron 4 (3.0,4.0)
BG 5 (2.4,3.7)
Kent 6 (1.5,2.7)
I see the top 3 pretty close, but big gaps between the others

West:
Toledo 1 (5.6,7.7)
EMU 2 (5.2,6.9)
NIU 3 (4.9,5.7)
WMU 4 (3.8,5.8)
CMU 4 (2.7,4.3)
Ball St 6 (1.5,2.5)

Edit2 - made more minor revisions

I see the East as the strong side of the conference this year, with the three of the four best teams in the Conference being Ohio, Buffalo, and Miami. I project 5 teams to be bowl eligible, Ohio, Buffalo, Toledo, Miami, and EMU. I see two teams as borderline, NIU and WMU.

Going more specifically into my picks for Ohio, I see Ohio as a huge favorite in five games:
Howard (-42)
Ball St (-29)
BG (-21)
Kent (-19)
Akron (-18)

I see them as a favorite against 4 more
U.Mass (-16)
UC (-13)
WMU (-8)
Buffalo (-7)

I see them as a pickem/slight favorite in the remaining games:
Miami (-3)
NIU (-3)
Viginia (-2)

I don't see Ohio as an underdog in any games.

Last Edited: 4/25/2019 5:22:00 PM by L.C.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 5/30/2018 11:47:19 AM 
So according to those who have said their sooth so far, our Oct 13 game at NIU could be a preview of the MACCG.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 5/30/2018 12:51:59 PM 
Ohio won't be a unanimous pick, though. CFN is starting to put up their individual team analysis, and it sounds like their pick will be Buffalo:
https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/05/buffalo-bulls-col...
CFN wrote:
The Bulls are going to win the MAC East – or come really, really close to doing it.


Picking Buffalo is not at all unreasonable. They have virtually everyone back, while Ohio lost 11 starters, and Buffalo won last year. The argument against Buffalo is that they have to go on the road against both Ohio and Miami, plus they play 2 of what I consider to be the top three teams in the West (Toledo, EMU, NIU) and don't play the worst team (Ball State), while Ohio and Miami play only one of the top teams, and do play Ball State.

The argument for Miami is that they have home games against both Ohio and Buffalo.

Last Edited: 5/31/2018 12:11:43 PM by L.C.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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TWT
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 6/3/2018 11:45:29 PM 
Miami has become that program in the MAC that finds ways to shoot itself in the foot on route to a disappointing season. Marshall, Cincinnati, Minnesota and Army is not an easy non-conference schedule. Marshall is preseason #2 in its division. A big upgrade compared to our opener with Howard. Playing at Army is more difficult than hosting UMass.

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Mike Johnson
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 6/4/2018 8:57:42 AM 
Uncle Wes wrote:
Miami has become that program in the MAC that finds ways to shoot itself in the foot on route to a disappointing season. Marshall, Cincinnati, Minnesota and Army is not an easy non-conference schedule. Marshall is preseason #2 in its division. A big upgrade compared to our opener with Howard. Playing at Army is more difficult than hosting UMass.


When that schedule was structured, Miami might have viewed Army as a near certain W. But during the last 2 seasons Army has become tough - 18-8.

http://www.facebook.com/mikejohnson.author

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 6/13/2018 4:22:08 PM 
You can go back to look at prior years from the various predictors, to see how they fared here:
http://preseason.stassen.com /

So, who has been the most accurate for the MAC? Over the last five years, the MAC West has been predicted fairly accurately by a number of people. The top six averages are:
Phil Steele 3.2 points/year
MAC Media Poll 3.4
Athlon 3.4
CompughterRating 3.6
PickSix 3.6
Arena Fanatic 3.7

The East, however, has been a different story, and much harder to predict. No pickers were even close in 2013, 2014, or 2017, where the best scores were 8, 5, and 6 respectively. In 2016, only one was close, that being Arena Fanatic, who scored a 2, while the next best was 5. The top 6 at picking the East have been:
Arena Fanatic 6.0 points/yr
Athlon 6.4 [has picked Ohio]
USA Today 6.8
Street & Smith/Sporting News 6.8 [has picked Ohio]
Phil Steele 7.0 [has picked Ohio]

Combined, the winners are:
Arena Fanatic 9.7
Athlon 9.8 [has picked Ohio]
Phil Steele 10.2 [has picked Ohio]
CompughterRatings 10.8
USA Today 10.8
MAC Media Polls 11.0

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Rufusbobcat94
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 6/13/2018 6:47:20 PM 
L.C. wrote:
The picks are starting to come out:
http://www.stassen.com/preseason/consensus/2018.html#mac

Here's my pick, and the number of conference wins and total wins I project:
East:
Ohio 1 (6.6,9.9)
Buffalo 2 (5.5,8.2)
Miami 3 (5.3,7.3)
Akron 4 (3.0,4.0)
BG 5 (2.4,3.7)
Kent 6 (1.5,2.7)
I see the top 3 pretty close, but big gaps between the others

West:
Toledo 1 (5.6,7.7)
EMU 2 (5.2,6.9)
NIU 3 (4.9,5.7)
WMU 4 (3.8,5.8)
CMU 4 (2.7,4.3)
Ball St 6 (1.5,2.5)

Edit2 - made more minor revisions

I see the East as the strong side of the conference this year, with the three of the four best teams in the Conference being Ohio, Buffalo, and Miami. I project 5 teams to be bowl eligible, Ohio, Buffalo, Toledo, Miami, and EMU. I see two teams as borderline, NIU and WMU.

Going more specifically into my picks for Ohio, I see Ohio as a huge favorite in five games:
Howard (-42)
Ball St (-29)
BG (-21)
Kent (-19)
Akron (-18)

I see them as a favorite against 4 more
U.Mass (-16)
UC (-13)
WMU (-8)
Buffalo (-7)

I see them as a pickem/slight favorite in the remaining games:
Miami (-3)
NIU (-3)
Viginia (-2)

I don't see Ohio as an underdog in any games.


seems like a sound analysis. the pickem games are tough too because they are all road games. I think cinci and Virginia will prepare us well for the conference season. This Ohio team in this years' MAC, could win the Championship.
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Rufusbobcat94
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 6/13/2018 7:29:58 PM 
Great point re nfl draft picks at Ohio


The NFL draft began in 1936:

In the 79 years before Solich: 25 players drafted
In the 13 years? after Solich: 9 players drafted.

If you project Solich lasts 79 years at Ohio (tongue-in-cheek but he just might!), he projects to have 55 NFLers compared with the first 79 years of only 25.

It actually looks like Ohio players drafted is gaining momentum so i think that projection will be higher under the Solich era-I think Hagen and possibly Lowery and Zervos are next up. Ouellette will get a shot as an UFA, or camp invitee, minimum. And down the road Kitrell and Jamal Hudson have a real shot. I dont know him personally or his work-ethic but I'm excited about Hudson's potential: he can play corner.

Last Edited: 6/13/2018 7:37:59 PM by Rufusbobcat94
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BillyTheCat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 6/13/2018 11:27:14 PM 
Rufusbobcat94 wrote:
Great point re nfl draft picks at Ohio


The NFL draft began in 1936:

In the 79 years before Solich: 25 players drafted
In the 13 years? after Solich: 9 players drafted.

If you project Solich lasts 79 years at Ohio (tongue-in-cheek but he just might!), he projects to have 55 NFLers compared with the first 79 years of only 25.

It actually looks like Ohio players drafted is gaining momentum so i think that projection will be higher under the Solich era-I think Hagen and possibly Lowery and Zervos are next up. Ouellette will get a shot as an UFA, or camp invitee, minimum. And down the road Kitrell and Jamal Hudson have a real shot. I dont know him personally or his work-ethic but I'm excited about Hudson's potential: he can play corner.


And how many MAC titles will we have in that projected 79 years?
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Rufusbobcat94
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 6/14/2018 6:23:13 PM 
Well if Solich and crew can win one mac title in the next 25 years, that will give him 1 more than the coaches who were here for the 38 years before his arrival.
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 6/29/2018 3:36:32 PM 
Add the Sporting News to those picking Ohio:
http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/news/group-of-5...

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Mark Lembright '85
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 6/29/2018 6:51:10 PM 
On the other hand, Collegefootballnews.com only has Ohio tied for 2nd in the MAC East behind Buffalo and tied with Miami.
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TWT
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 6/29/2018 8:35:35 PM 
BillyTheCat wrote:
Rufusbobcat94 wrote:
Great point re nfl draft picks at Ohio


The NFL draft began in 1936:

In the 79 years before Solich: 25 players drafted
In the 13 years? after Solich: 9 players drafted.

If you project Solich lasts 79 years at Ohio (tongue-in-cheek but he just might!), he projects to have 55 NFLers compared with the first 79 years of only 25.

It actually looks like Ohio players drafted is gaining momentum so i think that projection will be higher under the Solich era-I think Hagen and possibly Lowery and Zervos are next up. Ouellette will get a shot as an UFA, or camp invitee, minimum. And down the road Kitrell and Jamal Hudson have a real shot. I dont know him personally or his work-ethic but I'm excited about Hudson's potential: he can play corner.


And how many MAC titles will we have in that projected 79 years?


It doesn't even matter if he ever picks up a MAC title or not at this point. The fact is Frank will go down as one of the most important coaches in Ohio football history regardless. The wheels of the program didn't fall off after going 6-6 in 2014 as some on here predicted. Fans didn't think Frank would ever have another guy drafted in his tenure. It turned out that 2014 was a rebuilding year and he has the program back on track with a school record 508 points of offense in 2017. He proved a lot of us wrong.

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2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
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TWT
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 6/29/2018 10:35:28 PM 
Rufusbobcat94 wrote:
Well if Solich and crew can win one mac title in the next 25 years, that will give him 1 more than the coaches who were here for the 38 years before his arrival.


Its to the point where a MAC title, even a CFP bowl won't make that much of a difference. What we need to aim for is to go undefeated and put pressure on that playoff like UCF did to help open it up for more opportunity. Once we can get in the playoff its even odds to win any game in there.

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 6/30/2018 1:37:41 PM 
Uncle Wes wrote:
... Once we can get in the playoff its even odds to win any game in there.

I checked, and since the 2011-2 season, the MAC is 12-28 in bowls, including 0-7 against P5 teams, and 0-2 in New Year's Day Bowls (Florida St 33, NIU 10 and Wisconsin 24, WMU 16). While this is a small sample, it doesn't lend support for the theory that the MAC will win half the games, once they get there.

While I realize it's another sport, I also looked at March Madness. In the same time, the MAC is 3-7 in Basketball, again, not lending support to your 50% theory.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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TWT
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 6/30/2018 2:41:46 PM 
L.C. wrote:
Uncle Wes wrote:
... Once we can get in the playoff its even odds to win any game in there.

I checked, and since the 2011-2 season, the MAC is 12-28 in bowls, including 0-7 against P5 teams, and 0-2 in New Year's Day Bowls (Florida St 33, NIU 10 and Wisconsin 24, WMU 16). While this is a small sample, it doesn't lend support for the theory that the MAC will win half the games, once they get there.


Your missing one key point in this is that its all hypothetical in Ohio being good enough to win a playoff spot. My feeling is if we were good enough to get there, throwing up 550-600 points of offense on the season we would be good enough to take down the #1 team in the country absolutely. I'm not using the MAC and its one hit wonder teams as a gage as much as Boise St or UCF as the most powerful G5 programs. But even not considering their 5-0 record in big bowl games there are examples out there where G5 equivalent programs have knocked off #1 teams before. Certainly then a fully loaded bobcat squad could do it.

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 6/30/2018 3:27:24 PM 
Uncle Wes wrote:
L.C. wrote:
Uncle Wes wrote:
... Once we can get in the playoff its even odds to win any game in there.

I checked, and since the 2011-2 season, the MAC is 12-28 in bowls, including 0-7 against P5 teams, and 0-2 in New Year's Day Bowls (Florida St 33, NIU 10 and Wisconsin 24, WMU 16). While this is a small sample, it doesn't lend support for the theory that the MAC will win half the games, once they get there.


Your missing one key point in this is that its all hypothetical in Ohio being good enough to win a playoff spot. ...

So, you're saying that the 12-1 NIU team in 2012 and the 13-0 2016 WMU team weren't really good enough to belong in a New Year's Day bowl? Or, you're saying those games were 50:50 as well, but the MAC just has had bad luck?

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TWT
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 6/30/2018 6:33:52 PM 
L.C. wrote:
Uncle Wes wrote:
L.C. wrote:
Uncle Wes wrote:
... Once we can get in the playoff its even odds to win any game in there.

I checked, and since the 2011-2 season, the MAC is 12-28 in bowls, including 0-7 against P5 teams, and 0-2 in New Year's Day Bowls (Florida St 33, NIU 10 and Wisconsin 24, WMU 16). While this is a small sample, it doesn't lend support for the theory that the MAC will win half the games, once they get there.


Your missing one key point in this is that its all hypothetical in Ohio being good enough to win a playoff spot. ...

So, you're saying that the 12-1 NIU team in 2012 and the 13-0 2016 WMU team weren't really good enough to belong in a New Year's Day bowl? Or, you're saying those games were 50:50 as well, but the MAC just has had bad luck?


I'm basing this on the randomness of which the 4 team playoff results with huge blowouts. Expanding the playoff to 8 with an autobid for the G5 means anything can can happen. The seeding is of no advantage for the playoff like it is for the NCAA tournament. As to a couple of autobid teams losing and they happen to be two MAC teams I think those particular two were not strong teams. Hawaii was another one that was crushed. That doesn't mean Ohio wouldn't put on a great performance in a CFP bowl because a few others did not.

Last Edited: 6/30/2018 6:45:07 PM by TWT

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 7/2/2018 3:01:28 PM 
The two historically most accurate MAC prognosticators have their picks now posted, Phil Steele and Arena Fanatic. The posted are unanimous in picking Ohio and NIU. The most interesting pick is from Arena Fanatic, picking Ball State to rise from dead last to tie for third, behind NIU and Toledo.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 7/3/2018 5:14:08 PM 
https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/06/ohio-bobcats-coll...
CFN previews the Bobcats. They consider Ohio to be the 2d best team in the East, behind Buffalo, and the 3rd best in the MAC, with Toledo on top. There is a lot they seem unaware of. They are unaware of Irons and Ball, to name two on offense, and project Chukwu, Evans, and Clack to be starters, and consider Clack to be the key to a successful season. In the end, while they consider Buffalo a bit better, since the Ohio-Buffalo game is in Athens, they project Ohio to be going to the MACC.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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LuckySparrow
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 7/4/2018 12:49:05 PM 
The Ohio -13 line against Cincy seems a little much to me. I see that one as -2 or about the same as the UVA game will be.

What a day at the Convo.....Wow!

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Bobcat1996
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 7/4/2018 2:24:25 PM 
This preview from CFN in late June has the Bulls winning the East. See below.



2018 Buffalo Bulls Football Schedule

2018 Preseason Prediction: 8-4
2018 Preseason MAC Prediction: 6-2
– Preview 2018: The Team You Have To Know

Sept. 1 Delaware State W
Sept. 8 at Temple L
Sept. 15 Eastern Michigan W
Sept. 22 at Rutgers L
Sept. 29 Army W
Oct. 6 at Central Michigan L
Oct. 13 Akron W
Oct. 20 at Toledo L
Oct. 30 Miami Univ. W
Nov. 6 Kent State W
Nov. 14 at Ohio W
Nov. 17 OPEN DATE
Nov. 23 at Bowling Green W
2018 Kent State Football Schedule

2018 Preseason Prediction: 2-10
2018 Preseason MAC Prediction: 1-7
– Preview 2018: Get Ready For FlashFast

Sept. 1 at Illinois L
Sept. 8 Howard W
Sept. 15 at Penn State L
Sept. 22 at Ole Miss L
Sept. 29 at Ball State L
Oct. 6 Ohio L
Oct. 13 at Miami Univ. L
Oct. 20 Akron L
Oct. 30 at Bowling Green L
Nov. 3 at Buffalo L
Nov. 10 OPEN DATE
Nov. 15 Toledo L
Nov. 23 Eastern Michigan W
Related
Preview 2018: MAC Team Rankings
2018 Miami Univ. Football Schedule

2018 Preseason Prediction: 5-7
2018 Preseason MAC Prediction: 5-3
– Preview 2018: Too Good Not To Do More

Sept. 1 Marshall L
Sept. 8 Cincinnati (in Cin) L
Sept. 15 at Minnesota L
Sept. 22 at Bowling Green W
Sept. 29 Western Michigan W
Oct. 6 at Akron L
Oct. 13 Kent State W
Oct. 20 at Army L
Oct. 30 at Buffalo L
Nov. 7 Ohio W
Nov. 10 OPEN DATE
Nov. 14 at Northern Illinois L
Nov. 20 Ball State W
2018 Ohio Football Schedule

2018 Preseason Prediction: 7-5
2018 Preseason MAC Prediction: 5-3
– Preview 2018: MAC’s Best Team, But …

Sept. 1 Howard W
Sept. 8 OPEN DATE
Sept. 15 at Virginia L
Sept. 22 at Cincinnati L
Sept. 29 UMass W
Oct. 6 at Kent State W
Oct. 13 at Northern Illinois L
Oct. 20 Bowling Green W
Oct. 25 Ball State W
Nov. 1 at Western Michigan W
Nov. 7 at Miami Univ. L
Nov. 14 Buffalo L
Nov. 23 Akron W
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L.C.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 7/4/2018 5:22:21 PM 
Bobcat1996 wrote:
This preview from CFN in late June has the Bulls winning the East. ...

well, kind of. They need to make up their mind.

From the Buffalo preview on page 5 of it:
https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/05/buffalo-bulls-col...
cfn wrote:
...The Bulls are going to win the MAC East – or come really, really close to doing it.


From the Ohio preview on page 5:
cfn wrote:
... they’ll take care of improved Bowling Green and Ball State teams at home, and close out with wins over Buffalo and Akron to get to the MAC championship.


While we're at it, their Miami prediction is:
cfn wrote:
.There’s too much talent and too much experience to settle for another five-win season, but the schedule might not help the cause.

Umm, did they just say that Miami may have a lot of talent, but they still suck?

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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UpSan Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 7/9/2018 1:52:04 PM 
According to Las Vegas Super Book, here are the odds for each team to win the MAC:
Northern Illinois 2/1
Toledo 3/1
Ohio 7/2
Miami, Ohio 6/1
Western Michigan 7/1
Buffalo, Eastern Michigan 12/1
Central Michigan 25/1
Akron 30/1
Bowling Green 40/1
Ball State, Kent State 100/1
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BryanHall
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  Message Not Read  RE: Pre-season MAC Consensus
   Posted: 7/9/2018 10:26:23 PM 
I'm surprised Toledo is 3/1. They lost their QB (who was their best player) and can't seem to stop the run. I actually agree with Fiami having better odds than Buffalo--I think that the upside to have a really, really good team is there. Buffalo is good enough, but will only win the East if Ohio underachieves.


UpSan Bobcat wrote:
According to Las Vegas Super Book, here are the odds for each team to win the MAC:
Northern Illinois 2/1
Toledo 3/1
Ohio 7/2
Miami, Ohio 6/1
Western Michigan 7/1
Buffalo, Eastern Michigan 12/1
Central Michigan 25/1
Akron 30/1
Bowling Green 40/1
Ball State, Kent State 100/1
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