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Topic: Ohio has 1.3% chance of winning the MAC East

Topic: Ohio has 1.3% chance of winning the MAC East

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Ted Thompson
Administrator

Member Since: 11/11/2004
Location: MAC Play
Post Count: 7,651

Status: Offline

Ohio has 1.3% chance of winning the MAC East

Posted: 11/19/2018 4:55:23 PM

Tried to convert money line to win probability. Please check my math.

	Money line	Win Probability
Ball St.	909	9.9%
BG	625	13.8%
Ohio	-2500	96.2%
	Probability of all 3 =	1.3%

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BillyTheCat
General User

Member Since: 10/6/2012
Post Count: 10,015

Status: Offline

RE: Ohio has 1.3% chance of winning the MAC East

Posted: 11/19/2018 9:11:53 PM

Ted Thompson wrote:

Tried to convert money line to win probability. Please check my math. Money line Win Probability Ball St. 909 9.9% BG 625 13.8% Ohio -2500 96.2% Probability of all 3 = 1.3%

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gqdNe8u-Jsg

Valley Cat
General User

Member Since: 12/28/2004
Location: Jackson Twp., OH
Post Count: 1,182

Status: Offline

RE: Ohio has 1.3% chance of winning the MAC East

Posted: 11/20/2018 7:08:36 AM

Ted,
The reality of this stat just made me cancel my Detroit Marriott reservation. Much appreciated.

Ted Thompson
Administrator

Member Since: 11/11/2004
Location: MAC Play
Post Count: 7,651

Status: Offline

RE: Ohio has 1.3% chance of winning the MAC East

Posted: 11/20/2018 8:59:09 AM

Valley Cat wrote:

Ted,
The reality of this stat just made me cancel my Detroit Marriott reservation. Much appreciated.

If Miami wins tonight, Ohio's chance is 0. If Ball St. wins, Ohio's probability of winning the MAC East improves to 13.3%.

Follow Ohio Football recruiting on the BobcatAttack.com football recruiting database.

Cats-22
General User

Member Since: 9/30/2006
Post Count: 370

Status: Offline

RE: Ohio has 1.3% chance of winning the MAC East

Posted: 11/20/2018 9:19:11 AM

Thanks Ted. Math looks right (assuming they're independent events which I think is the right move).

Teamrankings has Ohio with a 8% chance to win the div, so they must not be modeling the tiebreaker correctly.

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