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Topic:  Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!

Topic:  Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
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OhioBobcat
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  Message Not Read  Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/9/2021 11:26:26 PM 
Don't look now, but for all of those people who said Ohio was finished a couple weeks ago in the MACC race, better think again! Ohio has won back-to-back games and just passed up Buffalo in the MAC East standings and is now right on Kent State and Miami's heels! And remember, Ohio has the tiebreaker over Miami, so if Ohio ties Miami for 1st, Ohio would win the East. And the tiebreaker could also prove extremely interesting if there is a 3-way tie for 1st where it would come into play as well. Ohio is going to win out to finish 5-3 in the MAC. If Kent State loses to CMU tomorrow, then Ohio will be just a game behind both Kent State and Miami! The MACC race isn't over by a long shot! I admit it looked bleak a few weeks ago, but I have continued to preach how good this team still is and what they're still capable of despite their record, and now it's really starting to show!
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Bobcatzblitz
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/9/2021 11:33:34 PM 
LETS GOOOOO!!
IM PROUD OF THIS TEAM AND THEY LOOK DANGEROUS WITH ROURKE & CHANGE OF PACE AMARI.
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OhioBobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/9/2021 11:38:01 PM 
Bobcatzblitz wrote:
LETS GOOOOO!!
IM PROUD OF THIS TEAM AND THEY LOOK DANGEROUS WITH ROURKE & CHANGE OF PACE AMARI.


Nice to finally see some believers on here. This team could literally go from 1-7 to MAC Champions a month later! It's still there for the taking. Let that sink in for a minute.
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Club Hyatt
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/9/2021 11:39:18 PM 
Finish up only with Toledo and Bowling Green. 5-7 to win the division? 5-7 to a bowl game on APR? I guess not completely crazy when you think its only 2 games in front of the Cats.


Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/9/2021 11:40:41 PM 
Let's get real. Kent has to lose out -- including to Akron -- and MOFO has to lose next week at home to BG and beat Kent. And of course we have to win out. Not bloody well likely.

But have your delusions.


We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

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BryanHall
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/9/2021 11:45:49 PM 
Pataskala wrote:
Let's get real. Kent has to lose out -- including to Akron -- and MOFO has to lose next week at home to BG and beat Kent. And of course we have to win out. Not bloody well likely.

But have your delusions.



I feel like being delusional for a night! That's what this is all about.

Let's end the MAC championship drought!
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.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/9/2021 11:48:10 PM 
I feel like the MAC would be made fun of on every national sports show if a seven-loss team won a conference title.

A bowl ineligible conference champion.

“Here’s your trophy. Now go home and never speak of it ever again.”

Last Edited: 11/9/2021 11:50:04 PM by .

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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/9/2021 11:59:40 PM 
. wrote:
I feel like the MAC would be made fun of on every national sports show if a seven-loss team won a conference title.

A bowl ineligible conference champion.

“Here’s your trophy. Now go home and never speak of it ever again.”


Conference champs get to go to bowl games, even with a losing record. It's happened a few times.

But it would be fitting for the MAC to have one this year.


We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

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mf279801
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/10/2021 7:20:23 AM 
. wrote:
I feel like the MAC would be made fun of on every national sports show if a seven-loss team won a conference title.

A bowl ineligible conference champion.

“Here’s your trophy. Now go home and never speak of it ever again.”


Lol, look at you, thinking that more than a handful of national sports shows would even talk about about the MAC long enough, or with enough knowledge, to make fun of it for that
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.
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/10/2021 8:29:44 AM 
mf279801 wrote:
. wrote:
I feel like the MAC would be made fun of on every national sports show if a seven-loss team won a conference title.

A bowl ineligible conference champion.

“Here’s your trophy. Now go home and never speak of it ever again.”


Lol, look at you, thinking that more than a handful of national sports shows would even talk about about the MAC long enough, or with enough knowledge, to make fun of it for that


I feel like it would be a segment at the end of PTI where they laughed at us. And then used as an anecdote during sports radio segments for why there are too many bowl games. And maybe a sarcastic note thrown out by SVP.
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BryanHall
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/10/2021 8:48:12 AM 
. wrote:
mf279801 wrote:
. wrote:
I feel like the MAC would be made fun of on every national sports show if a seven-loss team won a conference title.

A bowl ineligible conference champion.

“Here’s your trophy. Now go home and never speak of it ever again.”


Lol, look at you, thinking that more than a handful of national sports shows would even talk about about the MAC long enough, or with enough knowledge, to make fun of it for that


I feel like it would be a segment at the end of PTI where they laughed at us. And then used as an anecdote during sports radio segments for why there are too many bowl games. And maybe a sarcastic note thrown out by SVP.


Winning the MAC is the only goal for some. It eclipses all other accomplishments. If Albin wins the MAC with a losing record he should get an extension. Tell me I'm wrong.
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Andrew Ruck
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/10/2021 9:35:46 AM 
I could see Kent dropping their last 2. The tallest hurdle seems to be Miami losing to BG at home next week.

But if we did all tie at 5-3 what is the tiebreaker?


Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

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mf279801
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/10/2021 9:50:55 AM 
Andrew Ruck wrote:
I could see Kent dropping their last 2. The tallest hurdle seems to be Miami losing to BG at home next week.

But if we did all tie at 5-3 what is the tiebreaker?


I could be wrong (couldn’t find a current official MAC document, these are from an MLive.Com article from 2019), but i believe the relevant tie breakers would be

1) head to head records among the tied teams (this would be a wash, all would be 1-1 in this scenario)

2) Record of tied teams vs. common opponents within the division (versus rank order, highest to lowest, of division teams). That would probably eliminate 1 team, allowing the champion to be determined from the two remaining teams based on who won the regular season matchup.

In addition to the 3-way 5-3 tie, there are also scenarios where miami and us are tied at the end of the season, and we would own that tie breaker. We’re we and Kent to both finish tied for the best record, the tiebreaker goes to Kent.

Kent followed (somewhat narrowly) by Miami are definitely in the drivers seat. Other than them, we’re the only other possible East champion: I’m pretty sure that Akron, BG, and Buffalo are eliminated.
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/10/2021 9:54:39 AM 
Andrew Ruck wrote:
I could see Kent dropping their last 2. The tallest hurdle seems to be Miami losing to BG at home next week.

But if we did all tie at 5-3 what is the tiebreaker?


There would be a split in head to head so then it would go to division record. So Kent might not have to lose out if their win is against CMU. Kent losing to Akron and Miami and Miami losing to BGSU are all 100% required. The tiebreaker in the case where all three teams have a 3-2 division record would be the common opponents in division and then SOS of division crossover games. This would probably make most of the remaining games in the MAC relevant. Needless to say any combination here that works out in our favor be it Kent losing out, Miami losing to BG, and Ohio winning out or that minus Kent losing to CMU and another mess of games working out in our favor is quite unlikely. Team rankings gives Ohio about a 500-1 shot of winning the division when they run the numbers.

So you're saying there's a chance.....

Last Edited: 11/10/2021 10:06:11 AM by Victory

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Deciduous Forest Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/10/2021 9:54:53 AM 
eh, nevermind. two others replied before I could finish my message

Last Edited: 11/10/2021 9:55:43 AM by Deciduous Forest Cat

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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/10/2021 10:03:05 AM 
See above

Last Edited: 11/10/2021 10:04:17 AM by Pataskala


We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

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Pataskala
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/10/2021 10:10:32 AM 
Victory wrote:
Andrew Ruck wrote:
I could see Kent dropping their last 2. The tallest hurdle seems to be Miami losing to BG at home next week.

But if we did all tie at 5-3 what is the tiebreaker?


There would be a split in head to head so then it would go to division record. So Kent might not have to lose out if their win is against CMU. Kent losing to Akron and Miami and Miami losing to BGSU are all 100% required. The tiebreaker in the case where all three teams have a 3-2 division record would be the common opponents in division and then SOS of division crossover games. This would probably make most of the remaining games in the MAC relevant. Needless to say any combination here that works out in our favor be it Kent losing out, Miami losing to BG, and Ohio winning out or that minus Kent losing to CMU and another mess of games working out in our favor is quite unlikely. Team rankings gives Ohio about a 500-1 shot of winning the division when they run the numbers.

So you're saying there's a chance.....


Even straight math puts our chances at less than one percent (something like 1 in 128, if I'm doing the math right). That's why I'm waiting til next week to get my hopes up.


We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/10/2021 10:20:19 AM 
Maybe Kent will have to forfeit to OHIO because they used an ineligible player. History sometimes repeats itself, particularly on cold nights when hell freezes over! ;-)


"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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OhioBobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/10/2021 11:29:02 AM 
mf279801 wrote:
Andrew Ruck wrote:
I could see Kent dropping their last 2. The tallest hurdle seems to be Miami losing to BG at home next week.

But if we did all tie at 5-3 what is the tiebreaker?


I could be wrong (couldn’t find a current official MAC document, these are from an MLive.Com article from 2019), but i believe the relevant tie breakers would be

1) head to head records among the tied teams (this would be a wash, all would be 1-1 in this scenario)

2) Record of tied teams vs. common opponents within the division (versus rank order, highest to lowest, of division teams). That would probably eliminate 1 team, allowing the champion to be determined from the two remaining teams based on who won the regular season matchup.

In addition to the 3-way 5-3 tie, there are also scenarios where miami and us are tied at the end of the season, and we would own that tie breaker. We’re we and Kent to both finish tied for the best record, the tiebreaker goes to Kent.

Kent followed (somewhat narrowly) by Miami are definitely in the drivers seat. Other than them, we’re the only other possible East champion: I’m pretty sure that Akron, BG, and Buffalo are eliminated.


There are still a lot of moving parts, but the bottom line is, yes, Ohio is still right in the thick of the race. Kent State is in the driver's seat - for now - but that could change by tonight. If Kent State loses to CMU tonight, they would fall back into a tie with Miami and get this - Ohio would only be a game out of 1st place with two games to go!
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OU_Country
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/10/2021 12:32:07 PM 
OhioBobcat wrote:
Bobcatzblitz wrote:
LETS GOOOOO!!
IM PROUD OF THIS TEAM AND THEY LOOK DANGEROUS WITH ROURKE & CHANGE OF PACE AMARI.


Nice to finally see some believers on here. This team could literally go from 1-7 to MAC Champions a month later! It's still there for the taking. Let that sink in for a minute.


Call me a hater if you want, but if it does happen, it shows just how bad the conference as a whole is. A 5-7 team in a conference championship game. Let THAT sink in.
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Deciduous Forest Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/10/2021 1:29:47 PM 
We are not in the thick of the race. We just haven't been mathematically eliminated as of yet. It's more akin to being in the last week of the baseball season. 7 games to go, 5 games back with no games against the teams ahead of us to make up ground. It's possible, yes. Should we get our hopes up? No.
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cc-cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/10/2021 1:38:45 PM 
And with their win on Sunday, Urban has the Jaguars right back in the thick of things in the AFC playoff picture. It's why I've been saying for years no one in the NFL wants to play the Jaguars. They could literally go from 1-6 to NFL playoffs 6 weeks later! It's still there for the taking. Let that sink in for a minute.

Last Edited: 11/10/2021 1:41:26 PM by cc-cat

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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/10/2021 1:51:36 PM 
It isn't all that interesting from a Ohio Bobcat fan perspective because it would be so outrageously unlikely at that point but from a curiosity standpoint, if you are in to that sort of thing, can I definitely prove or disprove if Ohio is mathematically eliminated from the MAC East race if Kent St. beats CMU tonight? I am pretty sure is possible it will be hanging by the thinnest of threads imaginable. I think most MAC games played after that would matter and would have to go our way. I'd think it would be a 2000-1 shot at the very best and may be much worse than that.

Buffalo is in 4th place and they have already beaten Ohio and lost to Miami and Kent St. If Buffalo finishes 4th then we lose the three way tiebreaker. But any three way tie scenario 100% requires Akron and Bowling Green to both win at least 1 more game. So you could easily end up those three teams in a three way tie while having gone 1-1 against each other. You couldn't separate them that way and under any three-way tie scenario Ohio, Kent St., and Miami would all need to be 2-1 against those 3. It would go to the SOS against the West. BG finishing 4th alone loses the tiebreaker for us (Miami must lose to them and then it would come down to H2H between Ohio and Kent. St.). Are their enough other MAC games to all come out our way to get CMU, Toledo, and EMU to a better MAC record that the combination of teams Miami and Kent St. played? It seems REALLY, REALLY unlikely if it is. If I had to bet on it this path is not mathematically possible but I have not proved that.

But I think even if Kent St. wins tonight we are not mathematically eliminated because there are a couple of other games involving East teams that we have not set a required outcome to yet. Buffalo or BGSU finishing 4th kills our tiebreaker but Akron works for us. Akron could beat both Kent and Toledo, Buffalo could lose to NIU and Ball St., and BGSU could lose to Toledo, beat Miami, and lose to Ohio, and if Ohio also beats Toledo while Miami beats Kent St (requiring every single MAC East game in the final 2 weeks to go our way). The You'd have:

Ohio 5-3
Miami 5-3
Kent 5-3
Akron 3-5
BGSU 2-6
Buffalo 2-6

Kent would get eliminated by their loss to 4th place Akron and then Ohio wins with H2H over Miami. So winning with a tiebreaker using the West SOS might or might not be possible this still would be possible. If all of the above happens except for BG beating Toledo tonight the my understanding is Ohio STILL would win that tiebreaker. So, I do not think we can be eliminated tonight. At any rate, the most likely path of all these very unlikely paths involves Kent. St. losing out. If they beat CMU then the thread we would be hanging by would be gossamer thin.

Last Edited: 11/10/2021 2:05:24 PM by Victory

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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/10/2021 2:03:51 PM 

Last Edited: 11/10/2021 2:04:13 PM by Victory

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OhioBobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: Ohio is right back in the MAC Championship race!!!
   Posted: 11/10/2021 2:32:13 PM 
Victory wrote:
It isn't all that interesting from a Ohio Bobcat fan perspective because it would be so outrageously unlikely at that point but from a curiosity standpoint, if you are in to that sort of thing, can I definitely prove or disprove if Ohio is mathematically eliminated from the MAC East race if Kent St. beats CMU tonight? I am pretty sure is possible it will be hanging by the thinnest of threads imaginable. I think most MAC games played after that would matter and would have to go our way. I'd think it would be a 2000-1 shot at the very best and may be much worse than that.

Buffalo is in 4th place and they have already beaten Ohio and lost to Miami and Kent St. If Buffalo finishes 4th then we lose the three way tiebreaker. But any three way tie scenario 100% requires Akron and Bowling Green to both win at least 1 more game. So you could easily end up those three teams in a three way tie while having gone 1-1 against each other. You couldn't separate them that way and under any three-way tie scenario Ohio, Kent St., and Miami would all need to be 2-1 against those 3. It would go to the SOS against the West. BG finishing 4th alone loses the tiebreaker for us (Miami must lose to them and then it would come down to H2H between Ohio and Kent. St.). Are their enough other MAC games to all come out our way to get CMU, Toledo, and EMU to a better MAC record that the combination of teams Miami and Kent St. played? It seems REALLY, REALLY unlikely if it is. If I had to bet on it this path is not mathematically possible but I have not proved that.

But I think even if Kent St. wins tonight we are not mathematically eliminated because there are a couple of other games involving East teams that we have not set a required outcome to yet. Buffalo or BGSU finishing 4th kills our tiebreaker but Akron works for us. Akron could beat both Kent and Toledo, Buffalo could lose to NIU and Ball St., and BGSU could lose to Toledo, beat Miami, and lose to Ohio, and if Ohio also beats Toledo while Miami beats Kent St (requiring every single MAC East game in the final 2 weeks to go our way). The You'd have:

Ohio 5-3
Miami 5-3
Kent 5-3
Akron 3-5
BGSU 2-6
Buffalo 2-6

Kent would get eliminated by their loss to 4th place Akron and then Ohio wins with H2H over Miami. So winning with a tiebreaker using the West SOS might or might not be possible this still would be possible. If all of the above happens except for BG beating Toledo tonight the my understanding is Ohio STILL would win that tiebreaker. So, I do not think we can be eliminated tonight. At any rate, the most likely path of all these very unlikely paths involves Kent. St. losing out. If they beat CMU then the thread we would be hanging by would be gossamer thin.



There was a similar situation like this that happened in 2005 when three teams (BG, Miami, Akron) finished tied for 1st in the MAC East at 5-3. Akron needed 8 different games to go in their favor over the final two weeks of the season, while also needing to win their final two games - and all of it happened. Despite the odds stacked heavily against them, they won their last 2 games to finish 5-3, and had all the other games they needed to break their way actually go their way, and they won the three-way tiebreaker and went to Detroit. What's more, they then beat heavily favored NIU to win the MAC Championship. None of that looked like a possibility with all they needed to have happen, but it did. Point being, Ohio is still alive in the MACC race, and crazy things can, and have, happen. It's why you play the games.
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