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Topic:  RE: Game-by-game predictions

Topic:  RE: Game-by-game predictions
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Alan Swank
General User

Member Since: 12/11/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 6,644

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Game-by-game predictions
   Posted: 9/9/2022 11:30:36 AM 
Missed the first game while in Europe so this is an 11 game prediction:


Sept. 10 at Penn State L
Sept. 17 at Iowa State L
Sept. 24 FORDHAM W
Oct. 1 at Kent State L
Oct. 8 AKRON W
Oct. 15 at Western Michigan L
Oct. 22 NORTHERN ILLINOIS L
Oct. 29 BYE
Nov. 1 BUFFALO W
Nov. 8 at Miami L
Nov. 15 at Ball State W
Nov. 22 BOWLING GREEN W

6-6
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L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 9,467

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Game-by-game predictions
   Posted: 9/12/2022 5:25:47 PM 
For a continually updated projection, there is always Team Rankings:
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/team/ohio-b...

Based on performance so far, Ohio looks to be a better than average MAC team, but has their three tough road games, including both their key MAC East foes, WMU, Miami, and Kent. Thus, the current projections are:
Wins: 6.4
Bowl Eligible Chance: 69.7%
Chance of winning MAC East: 23%
Chance of being MACC: 6.9%

These numbers will change weekly. FWIW, ESPN thinks enough of them that they use their numbers for their game projections.

-After Iowa State:
Wins: 6.0
Bowl Eligible Chance: 56.1%
Chance of winning MAC East: 12.3%
Chance of being MACC: 3.9%
Favored to beat Akron, Fordham, Buffalo, BG, and maybe one of Ball State or NIU.

After Fordham, Ohio continues to drop in wins, and in odds of winning the East and MACC:
Wins: 5.6
Bowl Eligible Chance: 52.1%
Chance of winning MAC East: 6.9%
Chance of being MACC: 1.9%
Favored to beat Akron and BG, and maybe 2 of Ball State, Buffalo, WMU and NIU.

After Kent, Ohio continues do drop:
Wins: 5.3
Bowl Eligible Chance: 45.1%
Chance of winning MAC East: 3.5%
Chance of being MACC: 1.0%

Last Edited: 10/2/2022 11:48:25 AM by L.C.


“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

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Victory
General User

Member Since: 3/10/2012
Post Count: 1,267

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Game-by-game predictions
   Posted: 9/12/2022 7:42:49 PM 
L.C. wrote:
For a continually updated projection, there is always Team Rankings:
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/team/ohio-b...

Based on performance so far, Ohio looks to be a better than average MAC team, but has their three tough road games, including both their key MAC East foes, WMU, Miami, and Kent. Thus, the current projections are:
Wins: 6.4
Bowl Eligible Chance: 69.7%
Chance of winning MAC East: 23%
Chance of being MACC: 6.9%

These numbers will change weekly. FWIW, ESPN thinks enough of them that they use their numbers for their game projections.


Akron, Buffalo, and Bowling Green look like they might be awful. Bowl eligibility can come by beating Fordham, those three, and finding one more win. It looks plausible. It isn't that Ohio is good. The MAC East is just that bad. It looks even worse than last year. Fordham is far from a guaranteed win.
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MonroeClassmate
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2010
Post Count: 1,635

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Game-by-game predictions
   Posted: 10/2/2022 10:27:21 AM 
Looking at Power Ratings after 5 games, remaining on the schedule MAC teams with higher ratings are Bulls and RedChickens. Considering RedChicken is without their 4 year star QB and OHIO has shown the ability to move the ball and score losing only one more game in a lousy league is entirely possible.

One game at a time: Zips fans say their team has a lousy secondary so the OHIO receivers light them up on Saturday and conversely the OHIO secondary does enough to stop an inconsistent Zips offense to win on Homecoming Saturday in Athens.
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OhioCatFan
General User



Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Athens, OH
Post Count: 12,493

Status: Offline

  Message Not Read  RE: Game-by-game predictions
   Posted: 10/2/2022 12:31:02 PM 
MonroeClassmate wrote:
Looking at Power Ratings after 5 games, remaining on the schedule MAC teams with higher ratings are Bulls and RedChickens. Considering RedChicken is without their 4 year star QB and OHIO has shown the ability to move the ball and score losing only one more game in a lousy league is entirely possible.

One game at a time: Zips fans say their team has a lousy secondary so the OHIO receivers light them up on Saturday and conversely the OHIO secondary does enough to stop an inconsistent Zips offense to win on Homecoming Saturday in Athens.


I hope so, but I've been disappointed on Homecoming many times when I thought we'd picked an easy to beat opponent.


"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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