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Topic:  OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!

Topic:  OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
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OhioBobcat
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  Message Not Read  OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/1/2022 11:06:40 PM 
No one, I repeat, NO ONE, is playing better than OHIO right now! This is the BEST team in the MAC!!! This team isn't just going to the MACC, its going to win it!!!
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/2/2022 1:07:54 AM 
OhioBobcat wrote:
No one, I repeat, NO ONE, is playing better than OHIO right now! This is the BEST team in the MAC!!! This team isn't just going to the MACC, its going to win it!!!


Please keep it up, Nostradamus. I may owe you that beer in Detroit.


"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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Campus Flow
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/2/2022 8:14:46 AM 
Its great to be excited but Ohio has a lot of games to go through yet. Buffalo and BG both only have one loss. BG has 4 games left to go (WMU, Kent, Toledo, Ohio) and already has dropped a game to Buffalo. Ohio doesn't have to worry about tie breakers with BG because they could drop the next 2 games and defeat BG to likely give them a 3rd or 4th MAC loss. Buffalo after the way they look last night could very well drop a game down the stretch. They have to win 3 in a row themselves to keep pace. Buffalo could be going through one of those November meltdown phases and lose out for all we know.

If Ohio can get to Detroit I'd give them a 65% chance of winning it. As the team sits right now the bigger challenge is getting through 3 more MAC games. Cats might have some help by the time Ohio squares up against BG with them and Buffalo dropping games. There is a chance the East could be locked up prior to BG.


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Andrew Ruck
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/2/2022 9:15:38 AM 
I really thought Kent might re-enter the conversation with a win last night, their loss takes care of that. A BG loss tonight would really make things looking good. I still can't believe we are in this position. How appropriate would it be to finally get it done in what was likely the least optimistic season outlook in the last 15+ years.

Big time credit to the players and coaching staff for the obvious and marked improvement this year.


Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

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100%Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/2/2022 10:24:44 AM 
Looking at schedules, Buffalo has a pretty easy road the rest of the way. Their toughest remaining game is home vs Kent. Our road game @Ball St is the one that concerns me the most. Miami seems to be reeling right now and I don't think we lose to BG at home. That game in Muncie may well decide our fate.
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/2/2022 11:16:05 AM 
100%Cat wrote:
Looking at schedules, Buffalo has a pretty easy road the rest of the way. Their toughest remaining game is home vs Kent. Our road game @Ball St is the one that concerns me the most. Miami seems to be reeling right now and I don't think we lose to BG at home. That game in Muncie may well decide our fate.


I don't feel like any are gimmies. I think we'll be maybe a 1 point favorite or a line of 0 or so right now in the road in the next two if I have to guess. If things stay on course we'll be more than that at home against BG. Really, all three of our games look more difficult that Buffalo's. They have Akron at home which is the closest thing to a gimmie in a high parity MAC this year. They have Kent State and CMU at home. Buffalo could still easily drop one but we might have to win them all. With the way the defense is playing better now that seems plausible.
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Valley Cat
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/2/2022 1:26:59 PM 
I’m cautiously optimistic but the Cats’ path on the drive to Detroit is an uphill one. As we know all too well. Tuesdays in November can prove tricky.
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The Optimist
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/2/2022 1:49:15 PM 
Valley Cat wrote:
I’m cautiously optimistic but the Cats’ path on the drive to Detroit is an uphill one. As we know all too well. Tuesdays in November can prove tricky.

It would sure be wild if this is the year we finally don't choke during MACtion


I've seen crazier things happen.

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Kevin Finnegan
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/2/2022 4:51:44 PM 
What's the breakdown if BG, OHIO, and Buffalo all finish with 2 losses? This assumes BG beats OHIO but loses once more along the way and Buffalo falls once more. I guess that would probably depend on who they lose to, right? OHIO's two losses would then both be in division, which wouldn't be beneficial.
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/2/2022 6:27:45 PM 
Kevin Finnegan wrote:
What's the breakdown if BG, OHIO, and Buffalo all finish with 2 losses? This assumes BG beats OHIO but loses once more along the way and Buffalo falls once more. I guess that would probably depend on who they lose to, right? OHIO's two losses would then both be in division, which wouldn't be beneficial.


Buffalo's loss is to Ohio and Bowling Green's loss is to Buffalo. So nobody has lost to a West team yet so it is possible in your scenario that all three teams are 3-2 in the division.

Under that scenario it probably would noy bode well for us. Everyone would have beaten Miami and Akron is likely to be last so record vs. Kent would matter.


That is unless Buffalo and BG both have that extra loss somewhere you mention happen against Kent too (in that scenario Kent very probably would indeed be in fourth). If that happened it goes to record vs. fifth place Miami and everyone would have beaten Miami and Akron too so if I read it right it goes to a coin flip. You'd think you'd go to the total conference record of West opponents before an flip but it looks like you don't.

If either Buffalo or BG loses to an West team instead of an East team whichever did would have the best division record and win. If the both take their second loos to a West team then Ohio would be eliminated first on a lesser division record and it then reverts back to head to head between Buffalo and BG which works in Buffalo's favor.

So under your scenario OUr loss in definitely a second division loss so I think the only way it works out for us would be if Kent oddly beats all three who are tied and we win a coin toss.
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/2/2022 6:32:54 PM 
Victory wrote:
Kevin Finnegan wrote:
What's the breakdown if BG, OHIO, and Buffalo all finish with 2 losses? This assumes BG beats OHIO but loses once more along the way and Buffalo falls once more. I guess that would probably depend on who they lose to, right? OHIO's two losses would then both be in division, which wouldn't be beneficial.


Buffalo's loss is to Ohio and Bowling Green's loss is to Buffalo. So nobody has lost to a West team yet so it is possible in your scenario that all three teams are 3-2 in the division.

Under that scenario it probably would noy bode well for us. Everyone would have beaten Miami and Akron is likely to be last so record vs. Kent would matter.


That is unless Buffalo and BG both have that extra loss somewhere you mention happen against Kent too (in that scenario Kent very probably would indeed be in fourth). If that happened it goes to record vs. fifth place Miami and everyone would have beaten Miami and Akron too so if I read it right it goes to a coin flip. You'd think you'd go to the total conference record of West opponents before an flip but it looks like you don't.

If either Buffalo or BG loses to an West team instead of an East team whichever did would have the best division record and win. If the both take their second loos to a West team then Ohio would be eliminated first on a lesser division record and it then reverts back to head to head between Buffalo and BG which works in Buffalo's favor.

So under your scenario OUr loss in definitely a second division loss so I think the only way it works out for us would be if Kent oddly beats all three who are tied and we win a coin toss.


Actually, upon a reread I may be wrong. That standings rank says "regardless of division" so I guess if someone beats the West winner, like Buffalo beating Toledo or Ohio beating Ball State that sounds like it works out for whoever defeated whichever wins the West if both Buffalo and BG second loss is in the East.

Last Edited: 11/2/2022 6:33:36 PM by Victory

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mf279801
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/2/2022 10:01:29 PM 
Victory wrote:


That is unless Buffalo and BG both have that extra loss somewhere you mention happen against Kent too (in that scenario Kent very probably would indeed be in fourth). If that happened it goes to record vs. fifth place Miami and everyone would have beaten Miami and Akron too so if I read it right it goes to a coin flip. You'd think you'd go to the total conference record of West opponents before an flip but it looks like you don't.




Do you have an up-to-date procedure for MAC tiebreakers? The version I've found ends up hanging up on strength of cross-over opponents ("3. Comparison of conference winning percentage of cross-over opponents of tied teams; a. Tie-breaker is awarded to the team whose cross-division opponents had the best cumulative conference winning percentage" https://getsomemaction.com/news/2007/8/6/FB_127434.aspx?p... )
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Campus Flow
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/2/2022 10:43:17 PM 
I know BG won tonight but doing so 13-9 doesn't scare me. That tells me they'll have trouble with Ohio's defense and that is easy pickings for Ohio. The thinking here must be Ohio is going to drop either Miami or Ball State, win against BG and have Buffalo drop 1 game? In a 3 way tie-breaker Ohio finishes ahead of both and Buffalo over BG. BG has to play Kent, Toledo and Ohio down the stretch. They could very possibly lose out. They have an offense rated 109th and a defense rated 111th in the country.

At this time anything less than 8 wins for Ohio is going to be a disappointment the Cats have at least 4 games left (Miami, BSU, BG and Bowl) so 7 wins would be 1-3 to finish out the season. 8 wins is probable because all it requires is 2-2. 9 wins can be done without winning the East, 2-1 MAC play + winning the bowl. This team last night showed the sort of ability required for winning a bowl game.


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UpSan Bobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/3/2022 2:19:08 PM 
I just hope Ohio can go into the last game against Bowling Green with a chance to lock up the East with a win in that one. Of course, winning out would do that, and that's what we'll all hope for, but I think there's a good chance of that even if the Bobcats lose one of the next two. Buffalo would have to lose another game, and I think the Bulls losing at Central Michigan next week certainly is a reasonable possibility. Bowling Green's remaining schedule is tough: vs. Kent State, at Toledo, at Ohio.
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/3/2022 6:03:05 PM 
mf279801 wrote:
Victory wrote:


That is unless Buffalo and BG both have that extra loss somewhere you mention happen against Kent too (in that scenario Kent very probably would indeed be in fourth). If that happened it goes to record vs. fifth place Miami and everyone would have beaten Miami and Akron too so if I read it right it goes to a coin flip. You'd think you'd go to the total conference record of West opponents before an flip but it looks like you don't.




Do you have an up-to-date procedure for MAC tiebreakers? The version I've found ends up hanging up on strength of cross-over opponents ("3. Comparison of conference winning percentage of cross-over opponents of tied teams; a. Tie-breaker is awarded to the team whose cross-division opponents had the best cumulative conference winning percentage" https://getsomemaction.com/news/2007/8/6/FB_127434.aspx?p... )


Yeah, I can't find what I was looking at. Everything we have used to sort through MAC tiebeakers is old. I am reaching a point where I don't trust myself to try to figure out a complicated MAC tiebreaker. I apologize if I got it wrong. I think a lot of what I said is true either way as we would lose on division record (but I am not even sure that's the next step). If Kent beats both BG and Buffalo and then loses to EMU to force a three way tie with BG, Buffalo, and Ohio (and not Kent) then it would definitely go deep into the tiebreaker. But I am not even sure what "Record of tied teams within the division [versus rank order, highest to lowest, of division teams]" The way this is written it could mean total division record, which is the norm in most American tiebreakers for this level step after head to head, but its ambiguous. It reads like you could possibly worry about record against the fourth place team before division record. I give up.
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OhioBobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/8/2022 10:13:33 PM 
What team is going to stop Ohio from winning the MACC??? The answer is no one! Ohio has risen to the top of the MAC in lighting speed and no one can stay on pace with them. No one!
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Bobcatzblitz
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/8/2022 11:09:19 PM 
Ohio on the Road in November has derailed a few dreams

Last Edited: 11/8/2022 11:11:38 PM by Bobcatzblitz

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Cellis033
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/8/2022 11:51:31 PM 
Toledo has secured a win to take a two game lead in the MAC West. Best case scenario for us - win out


Chase
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Bringing the noise!

Muck Fiami
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shabamon
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/9/2022 9:34:15 AM 
Toledo clinches the West with one more win or one more Western Michigan loss. Do I have that correct?
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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/9/2022 10:54:06 AM 
shabamon wrote:
Toledo clinches the West with one more win or one more Western Michigan loss. Do I have that correct?


Yes
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OhioCatFan
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/9/2022 10:09:27 PM 
Cellis033 wrote:
Toledo has secured a win to take a two game lead in the MAC West. Best case scenario for us - win out


I'd rather play almost anyone else than UT. Over the years, they have kind of had a jinx over OHIO, even more so I think, than CMU, but those are the worst two in terms of head-to-head records with OHIO. This is from memory, so please correct me with I'm wrong.


"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

Note: My avatar is the national colors of the 78th Ohio Veteran Volunteer Infantry, which are now preserved in a climate controlled vault at the Ohio History Connection. Learn more about the old 78th at: http://www.78ohio.org

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OhioBobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/9/2022 10:39:53 PM 
BG lost. UB lost. It's over ladies and gentlemen. Please spare the talk of the million-to-1 odds of what could still happen for Ohio to claim the East. It is done, over with, signed, sealed and delivered. Ohio is going to Detroit! And I'm telling you, Ohio is going to beat Toledo! Everything, and I mean EVERYTHING is going for and breaking the right way for Ohio this year! Ohio will be 2022 MAC Champions come December 3rd!!!
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OhioBobcat
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/9/2022 10:41:54 PM 
OhioCatFan wrote:
Cellis033 wrote:
Toledo has secured a win to take a two game lead in the MAC West. Best case scenario for us - win out


I'd rather play almost anyone else than UT. Over the years, they have kind of had a jinx over OHIO, even more so I think, than CMU, but those are the worst two in terms of head-to-head records with OHIO. This is from memory, so please correct me with I'm wrong.


Yes, UT had a long streak over OU, but that streak was broken a few years ago. Ohio has won 2 of the last 3 vs Toledo. UT isn't going to know what hit 'em. Just watch.
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Ohio69
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/9/2022 10:42:04 PM 
OhioBobcat wrote:
BG lost. UB lost. It's over ladies and gentlemen. Please spare the talk of the million-to-1 odds of what could still happen for Ohio to claim the East. It is done, over with, signed, sealed and delivered. Ohio is going to Detroit! And I'm telling you, Ohio is going to beat Toledo! Everything, and I mean EVERYTHING is going for and breaking the right way for Ohio this year! Ohio will be 2022 MAC Champions come December 3rd!!!


Shhhhhhhh….. ignore this post football gods….


Can somebody hit a pull up jumper for me?.....

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Victory
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  Message Not Read  RE: OHIO IS GOING TO WIN THE MAC THIS YEAR!!!!!
   Posted: 11/10/2022 12:13:00 AM 
OhioBobcat wrote:
OhioCatFan wrote:
Cellis033 wrote:
Toledo has secured a win to take a two game lead in the MAC West. Best case scenario for us - win out


I'd rather play almost anyone else than UT. Over the years, they have kind of had a jinx over OHIO, even more so I think, than CMU, but those are the worst two in terms of head-to-head records with OHIO. This is from memory, so please correct me with I'm wrong.


Yes, UT had a long streak over OU, but that streak was broken a few years ago. Ohio has won 2 of the last 3 vs Toledo. UT isn't going to know what hit 'em. Just watch.


That streak never even came close to even having the slightest chance of entering my head when I was thinking about which is more likely to beat us. I think that way because I think Toledo is a much better team than Ball State. Toledo has a mobile QB that got hurt against Buffalo, which is probably why they lost, and they still beat Ball State with him playing as a very immobile QB. I don't know for sure but I'd think he'll be feeling a lot better in three plus weeks.


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